Investigating duration and intensity of Covid-19 social-distancing strategies

The impact of corona populism: Empirical evidence from Austria and theory

I study the co-evolution between public opinion and party policy in situations of crises by investigating a policy U-turn of a major Austrian right-wing party (FPÖ) during the Covid-19 pandemic. My analysis suggests the existence of both i) a "Downsian" effect, which causes voters to adapt their party preferences based on policy congruence and ii) a "party identification" effect, which causes partisans to realign their policy preferences based on "their" party's platform. Specifically, I use individual-level panel data to show that i) "corona skeptical" voters who did not vote for the FPÖ in the pre-Covid-19 elections of 2019 were more likely to vote for the party after it embraced "corona populism", and ii) beliefs of respondents who declared that they voted for the FPÖ in 2019 diverged from the rest of the population in three out of four health-related dimensions only after the turn, causing them to underestimate the threat posed by Covid-19 compared to the rest of the population. Using aggregate-level panel data, I study whether the turn has produced significant behavioral differences which could be observed in terms of reported cases and deaths per capita. Paradoxically, after the turn the FPÖ vote share is significantly positively correlated with deaths per capita, but not with the reported number of infections. I hypothesize that this can be traced back to a self-selection bias in testing, which causes a correlation between the number of "corona skeptics" and the share of unreported cases after the turn. I find empirical support for this hypothesis in individual-level data from a Covid-19 prevalence study that involves information about participants' true vs. reported infection status. I finally study a simple heterogeneous mixing epidemiological model and show that a testing bias can indeed explain the apparent paradox of an increase in deaths without an increase in reported cases. My results can, among others, be used to enrich formal analyses regarding the co-evolution between voter and party behavior.

Social Distancing and Isolation Strategies to Prevent and Control the Transmission of COVID-19 and Other Infectious Diseases in Care Homes for Older People: An International Review

Older people living in care homes are at high risk of poor health outcomes and mortality if they contract COVID-19 or other infectious diseases. Measures used to protect residents include social distancing and isolation, although implementation is challenging. This review aimed to assess the social distancing and isolation strategies used by care homes to prevent and control the transmission of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. Seven electronic databases were searched: Medline, CINAHL, Embase, PsycINFO, HMIC, Social Care Online, and Web of Science Core Collection. Grey literature was searched using MedRxiv, PDQ-Evidence, NICE Evidence Search, LTCCovid19.org and TRIP. Extracted data were synthesised using narrative synthesis and tabulation. 103 papers were included (10 empirical studies, seven literature reviews, and 86 policy documents). Strategies used to prevent and control the transmission of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases included social distancing and isolation of residents and staff, zoning and cohorting of residents, restriction of resident movement/activities, restriction of visitors and restriction of staff working patterns. This review demonstrates a lack of empirical evidence and the limited nature of policy documentation around social distancing and isolation measures in care homes. Evaluative research on these interventions is needed urgently, focusing on the well-being of all residents, particularly those with hearing, vision or cognitive impairments.

Exploring Knowledge, Prevention Methods, and Prevention Barriers of COVID-19 Among Somali, Karen, and Latinx Community Members in Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Background:

As the COVID-19 pandemic has unfolded, understanding the virus and necessary measures to prevent infection have evolved. While effective preventative measures for COVID-19 have been identified, there are also identifiable barriers to implementation.

Objective:

Explore the access to information, knowledge, and prevention methods and barriers of COVID-19 among Somali, Karen, and Latinx immigrant community members in Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA through analysis of in-depth interviews.

Methods:

Data were collected through 32 interviews via phone, video conference on a computer, or in-person with Somali, Karen, and Latinx adults to understand the experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic in each group’s native language. All participants were over the age of 18, and identified as Somali, Karen, and Latinx refugee or immigrant. Interview protocol contained 9 main questions including probes. Data were analyzed through use of the qualitative analysis software, Atlas.ti using phenomenology.

Results:

A total of 32 adults were interviewed (Somali = 12, Karen = 10, and Latinx = 10). One-third were in person and the remainder were remote. The average age recorded was 37 years (range 20-66 years), 43.8% males and 56.3% females. Somali, Karen, and Latinx respondents consistently had accurate knowledge about COVID-19 and were attentive to finding trustworthy information. Information was available in Somali, Karen, and Latinx written language, although Karen elders who are not literate would benefit more from video messaging. Knowledge of preventive measures was consistent; however, barriers included access, working in front-line positions, and living in high density housing.

Conclusion:

Exploring the impact of COVID-19 on Somali, Karen, and Latinx community members in Minneapolis, MN is advantageous in removing identified barriers and disparities in health. The results of this study highlight the need for increased efforts to address barriers in the prevention of COVID-19, as well as future pandemics for immigrant and refugee populations.

How Important Is Behavioral Change during the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic? A Mathematical Modeling Study

How important is the speed and intensity of behavioral change due to government policies, such as enhanced social distancing or lockdown, when an emerging infectious disease occurs? In this study, we introduce a deterministic SEIR model considering the behavior-changed susceptible group to investigate the effect of the speed and intensity of behavioral change on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We used epidemiological data from South Korea and Italy for the simulation study, because South Korea and Italy were the first countries to report an outbreak of COVID-19 after China and the prevention and response policy of each government were similar during the first outbreak of COVID-19. Simulation results showed that it took approximately twenty fewer days in Korea than in Italy until 90% of susceptible individuals changed their behavior during the first outbreak. It was observed that the behavior-changed susceptible individuals reduced the COVID-19 transmission rate by up to 93% in Korea and 77% in Italy. Furthermore, if the intensity and speed of behavioral change in Italy were the same as in Korea, the expected number of cumulative confirmed cases would have been reduced by approximately 95%, from 210,700 to 10,700, until the end of the lockdown period. We assumed that behavioral change is influenced by the number of confirmed cases and does not take into account social and cultural differences, as well as the state of the healthcare system, between the two countries. Our mathematical modeling showed how important the high intensity and fast speed of behavioral change to reduce the number of confirmed cases in the early period of an epidemic are.

Modeling the impact of racial and ethnic disparities on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics

Background

The impact of variable infection risk by race and ethnicity on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 spread is largely unknown.

Methods

Here, we fit structured compartmental models to seroprevalence data from New York State and analyze how herd immunity thresholds (HITs), final sizes, and epidemic risk change across groups.

Results

A simple model where interactions occur proportionally to contact rates reduced the HIT, but more realistic models of preferential mixing within groups increased the threshold toward the value observed in homogeneous populations. Across all models, the burden of infection fell disproportionately on minority populations: in a model fit to Long Island serosurvey and census data, 81% of Hispanics or Latinos were infected when the HIT was reached compared to 34% of non-Hispanic whites.

Conclusions

Our findings, which are meant to be illustrative and not best estimates, demonstrate how racial and ethnic disparities can impact epidemic trajectories and result in unequal distributions of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Funding

K.C.M. was supported by National Science Foundation GRFP grant DGE1745303. Y.H.G. and M.L. were funded by the Morris-Singer Foundation. M.L. was supported by SeroNet cooperative agreement U01 CA261277.

COVID-19: Current knowledge in clinical features, immunological responses, and vaccine development

The COVID-19 pandemic has unfolded to be the most challenging global health crisis in a century. In 11 months since its first emergence, according to WHO, the causative infectious agent SARS-CoV-2 has infected more than 100 million people and claimed more than 2.15 million lives worldwide. Moreover, the world has raced to understand the virus and natural immunity and to develop vaccines. Thus, within a short 11 months a number of highly promising COVID-19 vaccines were developed at an unprecedented speed and are now being deployed via emergency use authorization for immunization. Although a considerable number of review contributions are being published, all of them attempt to capture only a specific aspect of COVID-19 or its therapeutic approaches based on ever-expanding information. Here, we provide a comprehensive overview to conceptually thread together the latest information on global epidemiology and mitigation strategies, clinical features, viral pathogenesis and immune responses, and the current state of vaccine development.