Past, present, and future climate space of the only endemic vertebrate genus of the Italian peninsula

100 million years of turtle paleoniche dynamics enable the prediction of latitudinal range shifts in a warming world

Past responses to environmental change provide vital baseline data for estimating the potential resilience of extant taxa to future change. Here, we investigate the latitudinal range contraction that terrestrial and freshwater turtles (Testudinata) experienced from the Late Cretaceous to the Paleogene (100.5-23.03 mya) in response to major climatic changes. We apply ecological niche modeling (ENM) to reconstruct turtle niches, using ancient and modern distribution data, paleogeographic reconstructions, and the HadCM3L climate model to quantify their range shifts in the Cretaceous and late Eocene. We then use the insights provided by these models to infer their probable ecological responses to future climate scenarios at different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for 2100), which project globally increased temperatures and spreading arid biomes at lower to mid-latitudes. We show that turtle ranges are predicted to expand poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, with decreased habitat suitability at lower latitudes, inverting a trend of latitudinal range contraction that has been prevalent since the Eocene. Trionychids and freshwater turtles can more easily track their niches than Testudinidae and other terrestrial groups. However, habitat destruction and fragmentation at higher latitudes will probably reduce the capability of turtles and tortoises to cope with future climate changes.

Biogeographic history of Palearctic caudates revealed by a critical appraisal of their fossil record quality and spatio-temporal distribution

The disjunct geographical range of many lineages of caudates points to a complex evolutionary and biogeographic history that cannot be disentangled by only considering the present-day distribution of salamander biodiversity. Here, we provide a critical reappraisal of the published fossil record of caudates from the Palearctic and quantitatively evaluate the quality of the group's fossil record. Stem-Urodela and Karauridae were widespread in the Palearctic in the Middle Jurassic, suggesting an earlier, unsampled diversification for this group. Cryptobranchidae reached Europe no later than the Oligocene, but this clade was subsequently extirpated from this continent, as well as from western and central Asia. The relatively recent appearance of hynobiids in the fossil record (Early Miocene) is most likely an artefact of a taphonomic bias against the preservation of high-mountain, stream-type environments which early members likely inhabited. Salamandroids first appear in Europe, expanding into Asia by the Miocene. The apparently enigmatic and disjunct distribution of extant caudate lineages is therefore explained by a wider past geographical range, as testified by the fossil record, which was fragmented during the late Cenozoic by a combination of tectonic (i.e. the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau) and climatic drivers, resulting in regional extirpations.