Controlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure

Chronic infections can generate SARS-CoV-2-like bursts of viral evolution without epistasis

Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants have arisen during the first years of the pandemic, often bearing many new mutations. Several explanations have been offered for the surprisingly sudden emergence of multiple mutations that enhance viral fitness, including cryptic transmission, spillover from animal reservoirs, epistasis between mutations, and chronic infections. Here, we simulated pathogen evolution combining within-host replication and between-host transmission. We found that, under certain conditions, chronic infections can lead to SARS-CoV-2-like bursts of mutations even without epistasis. Chronic infections can also increase the global evolutionary rate of a pathogen even in the absence of clear mutational bursts. Overall, our study supports chronic infections as a plausible origin for highly mutated SARS-CoV-2 variants. More generally, we also describe how chronic infections can influence pathogen evolution under different scenarios.

An Overview of the Strategies to Boost SARS-CoV-2-Specific Immunity in People with Inborn Errors of Immunity

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has heightened concerns about immunological protection, especially for individuals with inborn errors of immunity (IEI). While COVID-19 vaccines elicit strong immune responses in healthy individuals, their effectiveness in IEI patients remains unclear, particularly against new viral variants and vaccine formulations. This uncertainty has led to anxiety, prolonged self-isolation, and repeated vaccinations with uncertain benefits among IEI patients. Despite some level of immune response from vaccination, the definition of protective immunity in IEI individuals is still unknown. Given their susceptibility to severe COVID-19, strategies such as immunoglobulin replacement therapy (IgRT) and monoclonal antibodies have been employed to provide passive immunity, and protection against both current and emerging variants. This review examines the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines and antibody-based therapies in IEI patients, their capacity to recognize viral variants, and the necessary advances required for the ongoing protection of people with IEIs.

Within-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2: how often are de novo mutations transmitted from symptomatic infections?

Despite a relatively low mutation rate, the large number of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections has allowed for substantial genetic change, leading to a multitude of emerging variants. Using a recently determined mutation rate (per site replication), as well as within-host parameter estimates for symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, we apply a stochastic transmission-bottleneck model to describe the survival probability of de novo SARS-CoV-2 mutations as a function of bottleneck size and selection coefficient. For narrow bottlenecks, we find that mutations affecting per-target-cell attachment rate (with phenotypes associated with fusogenicity and ACE2 binding) have similar transmission probabilities to mutations affecting viral load clearance (with phenotypes associated with humoral evasion). We further find that mutations affecting the eclipse rate (with phenotypes associated with reorganization of cellular metabolic processes and synthesis of viral budding precursor material) are highly favoured relative to all other traits examined. We find that mutations leading to reduced removal rates of infected cells (with phenotypes associated with innate immune evasion) have limited transmission advantage relative to mutations leading to humoral evasion. Predicted transmission probabilities, however, for mutations affecting innate immune evasion are more consistent with the range of clinically estimated household transmission probabilities for de novo mutations. This result suggests that although mutations affecting humoral evasion are more easily transmitted when they occur, mutations affecting innate immune evasion may occur more readily. We examine our predictions in the context of a number of previously characterized mutations in circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2. Our work offers both a null model for SARS-CoV-2 mutation rates and predicts which aspects of viral life history are most likely to successfully evolve, despite low mutation rates and repeated transmission bottlenecks.

Using big sequencing data to identify chronic SARS-Coronavirus-2 infections

The evolution of SARS-Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been characterized by the periodic emergence of highly divergent variants. One leading hypothesis suggests these variants may have emerged during chronic infections of immunocompromised individuals, but limited data from these cases hinders comprehensive analyses. Here, we harnessed millions of SARS-CoV-2 genomes to identify potential chronic infections and used language models (LM) to infer chronic-associated mutations. First, we mined the SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny and identified chronic-like clades with identical metadata (location, age, and sex) spanning over 21 days, suggesting a prolonged infection. We inferred 271 chronic-like clades, which exhibited characteristics similar to confirmed chronic infections. Chronic-associated mutations were often high-fitness immune-evasive mutations located in the spike receptor-binding domain (RBD), yet a minority were unique to chronic infections and absent in global settings. The probability of observing high-fitness RBD mutations was 10-20 times higher in chronic infections than in global transmission chains. The majority of RBD mutations in BA.1/BA.2 chronic-like clades bore predictive value, i.e., went on to display global success. Finally, we used our LM to infer hundreds of additional chronic-like clades in the absence of metadata. Our approach allows mining extensive sequencing data and providing insights into future evolutionary patterns of SARS-CoV-2.

Machine learning on large scale perturbation screens for SARS-CoV-2 host factors identifies β-catenin/CBP inhibitor PRI-724 as a potent antiviral

Expanding antiviral treatment options against SARS-CoV-2 remains crucial as the virus evolves under selection pressure which already led to the emergence of several drug resistant strains. Broad spectrum host-directed antivirals (HDA) are promising therapeutic options, however the robust identification of relevant host factors by CRISPR/Cas9 or RNA interference screens remains challenging due to low consistency in the resulting hits. To address this issue, we employed machine learning, based on experimental data from several knockout screens and a drug screen. We trained classifiers using genes essential for virus life cycle obtained from the knockout screens. The machines based their predictions on features describing cellular localization, protein domains, annotated gene sets from Gene Ontology, gene and protein sequences, and experimental data from proteomics, phospho-proteomics, protein interaction and transcriptomic profiles of SARS-CoV-2 infected cells. The models reached a remarkable performance suggesting patterns of intrinsic data consistency. The predicted HDF were enriched in sets of genes particularly encoding development, morphogenesis, and neural processes. Focusing on development and morphogenesis-associated gene sets, we found β-catenin to be central and selected PRI-724, a canonical β-catenin/CBP disruptor, as a potential HDA. PRI-724 limited infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants, SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV and IAV in different cell line models. We detected a concentration-dependent reduction in cytopathic effects, viral RNA replication, and infectious virus production in SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1-infected cells. Independent of virus infection, PRI-724 treatment caused cell cycle deregulation which substantiates its potential as a broad spectrum antiviral. Our proposed machine learning concept supports focusing and accelerating the discovery of host dependency factors and identification of potential host-directed antivirals.

Vaccines Alone Cannot Slow the Evolution of SARS-CoV-2

The rapid emergence of immune-evading viral variants of SARS-CoV-2 calls into question the practicality of a vaccine-only public-health strategy for managing the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. It has been suggested that widespread vaccination is necessary to prevent the emergence of future immune-evading mutants. Here, we examined that proposition using stochastic computational models of viral transmission and mutation. Specifically, we looked at the likelihood of emergence of immune escape variants requiring multiple mutations and the impact of vaccination on this process. Our results suggest that the transmission rate of intermediate SARS-CoV-2 mutants will impact the rate at which novel immune-evading variants appear. While vaccination can lower the rate at which new variants appear, other interventions that reduce transmission can also have the same effect. Crucially, relying solely on widespread and repeated vaccination (vaccinating the entire population multiple times a year) is not sufficient to prevent the emergence of novel immune-evading strains, if transmission rates remain high within the population. Thus, vaccines alone are incapable of slowing the pace of evolution of immune evasion, and vaccinal protection against severe and fatal outcomes for COVID-19 patients is therefore not assured.

Antigenic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in immunocompromised hosts

OBJECTIVES/AIMS

Prolonged infections of immunocompromised individuals have been proposed as a crucial source of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic. In principle, sustained within-host antigenic evolution in immunocompromised hosts could allow novel immune escape variants to emerge more rapidly, but little is known about how and when immunocompromised hosts play a critical role in pathogen evolution.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Here, we use a simple mathematical model to understand the effects of immunocompromised hosts on the emergence of immune escape variants in the presence and absence of epistasis.

CONCLUSIONS

We show that when the pathogen does not have to cross a fitness valley for immune escape to occur (no epistasis), immunocompromised individuals have no qualitative effect on antigenic evolution (although they may accelerate immune escape if within-host evolutionary dynamics are faster in immunocompromised individuals). But if a fitness valley exists between immune escape variants at the between-host level (epistasis), then persistent infections of immunocompromised individuals allow mutations to accumulate, therefore, facilitating rather than simply speeding up antigenic evolution. Our results suggest that better genomic surveillance of infected immunocompromised individuals and better global health equality, including improving access to vaccines and treatments for individuals who are immunocompromised (especially in lower- and middle-income countries), may be crucial to preventing the emergence of future immune escape variants of SARS-CoV-2.

COVID-19-related health outcomes in people with primary immunodeficiency: A systematic review

A better understanding of COVID-19 in people with primary immunodeficiency (PI), rare inherited defects in the immune system, is important for protecting this population, especially as population-wide approaches to mitigation change. COVID-19 outcomes in the PI population could have broader public health implications because some people with PI might be more likely to have extended illnesses, which could lead to increased transmission and emergence of variants. We performed a systematic review on COVID-19-associated morbidity and mortality in people with PI. Of the 1114 articles identified through the literature search, we included 68 articles in the review after removing 1046 articles because they were duplicates, did not involve COVID-19, did not involve PI, were not in English, were commentaries, were gene association or gene discovery studies, or could not be accessed. The 68 articles included outcomes for 459 people with PI and COVID-19. Using data from these 459 people, we calculated a case fatality rate of 9%, hospitalization rate of 49%, and oxygen supplementation rate of 29%. Studies have indicated that a number of people with PI showed at least some immune response to COVID-19 vaccination, with responses varying by type of PI and other factors, although vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization was lower in the PI population than in the general population. In addition to being up-to-date on vaccinations, current strategies for optimizing protection for people with PI can include pre-exposure prophylaxis for those eligible and use of therapeutics. Overall, people with PI, when infected, tested positive and showed symptoms for similar lengths of time as the general population. However, a number of people with X-linked agammaglobulinemia (XLA) or other B-cell pathway defects were reported to have prolonged infections, measured by time from first positive SARS-CoV-2 test to first negative test. As prolonged infections might increase the likelihood of genetic variants emerging, SARS-CoV2 isolates from people with PI and extended illness would be good candidates to prioritize for whole genome sequencing.

Household Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 From Adult Index Cases With and Without Human Immunodeficiency Virus in South Africa, 2020-2021: A Case-Ascertained, Prospective, Observational Household Transmission Study

BACKGROUND

In South Africa, 19% of adults are living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; LWH). Few data on the influence of HIV on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) household transmission are available.

METHODS

We performed a case-ascertained, prospective household transmission study of symptomatic adult index SARS-CoV-2 cases LWH and not living with HIV (NLWH) and their contacts from October 2020 to September 2021. Households were followed up 3 times a week for 6 weeks to collect nasal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 testing. We estimated household cumulative infection risk (HCIR) and duration of SARS-CoV-2 positivity (at a cycle threshold value <30 as proxy for high viral load).

RESULTS

HCIR was 59% (220 of 373), not differing by index HIV status (60% LWH vs 58% NLWH). HCIR increased with index case age (35-59 years: adjusted OR [aOR], 3.4; 95% CI, 1.5-7.8 and ≥60 years: aOR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.0-10.1) compared with 18-34 years and with contacts' age, 13-17 years (aOR, 7.1; 95% CI, 1.5-33.9) and 18-34 years (aOR, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.0-18.4) compared with <5 years. Mean positivity was longer in cases LWH (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.4; 95% CI, .1-.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Index HIV status was not associated with higher HCIR, but cases LWH had longer positivity duration. Adults aged >35 years were more likely to transmit and individuals aged 13-34 to be infected SARS-CoV-2 in the household. As HIV infection may increase transmission, health services must maintain HIV testing and antiretroviral therapy initiation.

Prevention and treatment of COVID-19 in patients with benign and malignant blood disorders

Patients with moderate to severe immunosuppression, a condition that is common in many hematologic diseases because of the pathology itself or its treatment, are at high risk for COVID-19 and its complications. While empirical data are sometimes conflicting, this heightened risk has been confirmed in multiple well-done studies for patients with hematologic malignancies, particularly those with B-cell lymphoid malignancies who received lymphocytotoxic therapies, those with a history of recent hematopoietic stem cell transplant and chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy, and, to a lesser degree, those with hemoglobinopathies. Patients with immunosuppression need to have a lower threshold for avoiding indoor public spaces where they are unable to effectively keep a safe distance from others, and wear a high-quality well-fitting mask, especially when community levels are not low. They should receive an enhanced initial vaccine regimen and additional boosting. Therapeutic options are available and immunosuppressed patients are prioritized per the NIH.

On the caveats of a multiplex test for SARS-CoV-2 to detect seroconversion after infection or vaccination

The Covid-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, has resulted in over 6 million reported deaths worldwide being one of the biggest challenges the world faces today. Here we present optimizations of all steps of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)-based test to detect IgG, IgA and IgM against the trimeric spike (S) protein, receptor binding domain (RBD), and N terminal domain of the nucleocapsid (N-NTD) protein of SARS-CoV-2. We discuss how to determine specific thresholds for antibody positivity and its limitations according to the antigen used. We applied the assay to a cohort of 126 individuals from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, consisting of 23 PCR-positive individuals and 103 individuals without a confirmed diagnosis for SARS-CoV-2 infection. To illustrate the differences in serological responses to vaccinal immunization, we applied the test in 18 individuals from our cohort before and after receiving ChAdOx-1 nCoV-19 or CoronaVac vaccines. Taken together, our results show that the test can be customized at different stages depending on its application, enabling the user to analyze different cohorts, saving time, reagents, or samples. It is also a valuable tool for elucidating the immunological consequences of new viral strains and monitoring vaccination coverage and duration of response to different immunization regimens.

Continuous genomic diversification of long polynucleotide fragments drives the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

Highly transmissible or immuno-evasive SARS-CoV-2 variants have intermittently emerged, resulting in repeated COVID-19 surges. With over 6 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes sequenced, there is unprecedented data to decipher the evolution of fitter SARS-CoV-2 variants. Much attention has been directed to studying the functional importance of specific mutations in the Spike protein, but there is limited knowledge of genomic signatures shared by dominant variants. Here, we introduce a method to quantify the genome-wide distinctiveness of polynucleotide fragments (3- to 240-mers) that constitute SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Compared to standard phylogenetic metrics and mutational load, the new metric provides improved separation between Variants of Concern (VOCs; Reference = 89, IQR: 65-108; Alpha = 166, IQR: 149-181; Beta 131, IQR: 114-149; Gamma = 164, IQR: 150-178; Delta = 235, IQR: 217-255; and Omicron = 459, IQR: 395-521). Omicron's high genomic distinctiveness may confer an advantage over prior VOCs and the recently emerged and highly mutated B.1.640.2 (IHU) lineage. Evaluation of 883 lineages highlights that genomic distinctiveness has increased over time (R ² = 0.37) and that VOCs score significantly higher than contemporary non-VOC lineages, with Omicron among the most distinctive lineages observed. This study demonstrates the value of characterizing SARS-CoV-2 variants by genome-wide polynucleotide distinctiveness and emphasizes the need to go beyond a narrow set of mutations at known sites on the Spike protein. The consistently higher distinctiveness of each emerging VOC compared to prior VOCs suggests that monitoring of genomic distinctiveness would facilitate rapid assessment of viral fitness.

From SARS-CoV-2 infection to COVID-19 morbidity: an in silico projection of virion flow rates to the lower airway via nasopharyngeal fluid boluses

Background: While the nasopharynx is initially the dominant upper airway infection site for SARS-CoV-2, the physiologic mechanism launching the infection at the lower airway is still not well-understood. Based on the rapidity of infection progression to the lungs, it has been hypothesized that the nasopharynx may be acting as the primary seeding zone for subsequent contamination of the lower airway via aspiration of virus-laden boluses of nasopharyngeal fluids. Methodology: To examine the plausibility of the aspiration-driven mechanism, we have computationally tracked the inhalation process in three anatomic airway reconstructions and have quantified the nasopharyngeal liquid volume transmitted to the lower airspace during each aspiration. Results: Extending the numerical trends on aspiration volume to earlier records on aspiration frequencies indicates a total aspirated nasopharyngeal liquid volume of 0.3 – 0.76 ml/day. Subsequently, for mean sputum viral load, our modeling projects that the number of virions reaching the lower airway will range over 2.1×106 – 5.3×106 /day; for peak viral load, the corresponding number hovers between 7.1×108 – 1.8×109. Conclusions: The virion transmission findings fill in a key piece of the mechanistic puzzle on the systemic progression of SARS-CoV-2, and subjectively point to health conditions like dysphagia, with proclivity to increased aspiration, as some of the potential underlying risk factors for aggressive lung infections.