Risk Factors for Severe COVID-19 Among Children and Adolescents Enrolled in Acute Respiratory Infection Sentinel Surveillance in South Africa, 2020-2022

BACKGROUND

Identifying children at risk for severe COVID-19 disease from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may guide future mitigation interventions. Using sentinel surveillance data, we aimed to identify risk factors for SARS-CoV-2-associated hospitalisation among patients aged ≤ 18 years with respiratory illness.

METHODS

From April 2020 to March 2022, patients meeting study case definitions were enrolled at four outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) and five inpatient severe respiratory infection (SRI) surveillance sites and tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Each ILI clinic shared a catchment area with its corresponding SRI hospital. Potential risk factors for SARS-CoV-2-associated hospitalisation were analysed using multivariable logistic regression by comparing inpatient versus outpatient SARS-CoV-2 cases.

RESULTS

Of 4688 participants aged ≤ 18 years, 4556 (97%) with complete PCR and HIV data were included in the analysis. Among patients with ILI and SRI, 92/1145 (8%) and 154/3411 (5%) tested SARS-CoV-2 positive, respectively. Compared to outpatients, hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 cases were associated with age < 6 months ([adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 8.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.7-24.0] versus 1-4 years); underlying medical condition other than HIV [aOR 5.8, 95% CI 2.3-14.6]; laboratory-confirmed Omicron BA.1/BA.2 or Delta variant ([aOR 4.9, 95% CI 1.7-14.2] or [aOR 2.8, 95% CI 1.1-7.3] compared to ancestral SARS-CoV-2); and respiratory syncytial virus coinfection [aOR 6.2, 95% CI 1.0-38.5].

CONCLUSION

Aligning with previous research, we identified age < 6 months or having an underlying condition as risk factors for SARS-CoV-2-associated SRI hospitalisation and demonstrated the potential of sentinel surveillance to monitor COVID-19 in children.

Changes in the global hospitalisation burden of respiratory syncytial virus in young children during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic is reported to have affected the epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which could have important implications for RSV prevention and control strategies. We aimed to assess the hospitalisation burden of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in children younger than 5 years during the pandemic period and the possible changes in RSV epidemiology from a global perspective.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search for studies published between Jan 1, 2020, and June 30, 2022, in MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, Web of Science, the WHO COVID-19 Research Database, CINAHL, LILACS, OpenGrey, CNKI, WanFang, and CqVip. We included unpublished data on RSV epidemiology shared by international collaborators. Eligible studies reported data on at least one of the following measures for children (aged <5 years) hospitalised with RSV-associated ALRI: hospital admission rates, in-hospital case fatality ratio, and the proportion of hospitalised children requiring supplemental oxygen or requiring mechanical ventilation or admission to intensive care. We used a generalised linear mixed-effects model for data synthesis to measure the changes in the incidence, age distribution, and disease severity of children hospitalised with RSV-associated ALRI during the pandemic, compared with the year 2019.

FINDINGS

We included 61 studies from 19 countries, of which 14 (23%) studies were from the published literature (4052 identified records) and 47 (77%) were from unpublished datasets. Most (51 [84%]) studies were from high-income countries; nine (15%) were from upper-middle-income countries, one (2%) was from a lower-middle-income country (Kenya), and none were from a low-income country. 15 studies contributed to the estimates of hospitalisation rate and 57 studies contributed to the severity analyses. Compared with 2019, the rates of RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisation in all children (aged 0-60 months) in 2020 decreased by 79·7% (325 000 cases vs 66 000 cases) in high-income countries, 13·8% (581 000 cases vs 501 000 cases) in upper-middle-income countries, and 42·3% (1 378 000 cases vs 795 000 cases) in Kenya. In high-income countries, annualised rates started to rise in 2021, and by March, 2022, had returned to a level similar to 2019 (6·0 cases per 1000 children [95% uncertainty interval 5·4-6·8] in April, 2021, to March, 2022, vs 5·0 cases per 1000 children [3·6-6·8] in 2019). By contrast, in middle-income countries, rates remained lower in the latest period with data available than in 2019 (for upper-middle-income countries, 2·1 cases [0·7-6·1] in April, 2021, to March, 2022, vs 3·4 [1·2-9·7] in 2019; for Kenya, 2·2 cases [1·8-2·7] in 2021 vs 4·1 [3·5-4·7] in 2019). Across all time periods and income regions, hospitalisation rates peaked in younger infants (aged 0 to <3 months) and decreased with increasing age. A significantly higher proportion of children aged 12-24 months were hospitalised with RSV-associated ALRI in high-income and upper-middle-income countries during the pandemic years than in 2019, with odds ratios ranging from 1·30 (95% uncertainty interval 1·07-1·59) to 2·05 (1·66-2·54). No consistent changes in disease severity were observed.

INTERPRETATION

The hospitalisation burden of RSV-associated ALRI in children younger than 5 years was significantly reduced during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The rebound in hospitalisation rates to pre-pandemic rates observed in the high-income region but not in the middle-income region by March, 2022, suggests a persistent negative impact of the pandemic on health-care systems and health-care access in the middle-income region. RSV surveillance needs to be established (or re-established) to monitor changes in RSV epidemiology, particularly in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

FUNDING

EU Innovative Medicines Initiative Preparing for RSV Immunisation and Surveillance in Europe (PROMISE), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and WHO.

Characteristics of infections with ancestral, Beta and Delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 in the PHIRST-C community cohort study, South Africa, 2020-2021

BACKGROUND

Data on the characteristics of individuals with mild and asymptomatic infections with different SARS-CoV-2 variants are limited. We therefore compared the characteristics of individuals infected with ancestral, Beta and Delta SARS-CoV-2 variants in South Africa.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study in a rural and an urban site during July 2020-August 2021. Mid-turbinate nasal swabs were collected twice-weekly from household members irrespective of symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). Differences in demographic and clinical characteristics, shedding and cycle threshold (Ct) value of infection episodes by variant were evaluated using multinomial regression. Overall and age-specific incidence rates of infection were compared by variant.

RESULTS

We included 1200 individuals from 222 households and 648 rRT-PCR-confirmed infection episodes (66, 10% ancestral, 260, 40% Beta, 322, 50% Delta). Symptomatic proportion was similar for ancestral (7, 11%), Beta (44, 17%), and Delta (46, 14%) infections (p=0.4). After accounting for previous infection, peak incidence shifted to younger age groups in successive waves (40-59 years ancestral, 19-39 years Beta, 13-18 years Delta). On multivariable analysis, compared to ancestral, Beta infection was more common in individuals aged 5-12 years (vs 19-39)(adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.6, 95% confidence interval (CI)1.1-6.6) and PCR cycle threshold (Ct) value <30 (vs >35)(aOR 3.2, 95%CI 1.3-7.9), while Delta was more common in individuals aged <5 (aOR 6.7, 95%CI1.4-31.2) and 5-12 years (aOR 6.6 95%CI2.6-16.7)(vs 19-39) and Ct value <30 (aOR 4.5, 95%CI 1.3-15.5) and 30-35 (aOR 6.0, 95%CI 2.3-15.7)(vs >35).

CONCLUSIONS

Consecutive SARS-CoV-2 waves with Beta and Delta variants were associated with a shift to younger individuals. Beta and Delta infections were associated with higher peak viral loads, potentially increasing infectiousness.

Estimating household contact matrices structure from easily collectable metadata

Contact matrices are a commonly adopted data representation, used to develop compartmental models for epidemic spreading, accounting for the contact heterogeneities across age groups. Their estimation, however, is generally time and effort consuming and model-driven strategies to quantify the contacts are often needed. In this article we focus on household contact matrices, describing the contacts among the members of a family and develop a parametric model to describe them. This model combines demographic and easily quantifiable survey-based data and is tested on high resolution proximity data collected in two sites in South Africa. Given its simplicity and interpretability, we expect our method to be easily applied to other contexts as well and we identify relevant questions that need to be addressed during the data collection procedure.

Impact of Subgroup Distribution on Seasonality of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus: A Global Systematic Analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies reported inconsistent findings regarding the association between respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) subgroup distribution and timing of RSV season. We aimed to further understand the association by conducting a global-level systematic analysis.

METHODS

We compiled published data on RSV seasonality through a systematic literature review, and unpublished data shared by international collaborators. Using annual cumulative proportion (ACP) of RSV-positive cases, we defined RSV season onset and offset as ACP reaching 10% and 90%, respectively. Linear regression models accounting for meteorological factors were constructed to analyze the association of proportion of RSV-A with the corresponding RSV season onset and offset.

RESULTS

We included 36 study sites from 20 countries, providing data for 179 study-years in 1995-2019. Globally, RSV subgroup distribution was not significantly associated with RSV season onset or offset globally, except for RSV season offset in the tropics in 1 model, possibly by chance. Models that included RSV subgroup distribution and meteorological factors explained only 2%-4% of the variations in timing of RSV season.

CONCLUSIONS

Year-on-year variations in RSV season onset and offset are not well explained by RSV subgroup distribution or meteorological factors. Factors including population susceptibility, mobility, and viral interference should be examined in future studies.

COVID-19 vaccine uptake and effectiveness by time since vaccination in the Western Cape province, South Africa: An observational cohort study during 2020-2022

Background

There are few data on the real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines and boosting in Africa, which experienced high levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a mostly vaccine-naïve population, and has limited vaccine coverage and competing health service priorities. We assessed the association between vaccination and severe COVID-19 in the Western Cape, South Africa.

Methods

We performed an observational cohort study of >2 million adults during 2020-2022. We described SARS-CoV-2 testing, COVID-19 outcomes, and vaccine uptake over time. We used multivariable cox models to estimate the association of BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2.S vaccination with COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death, adjusting for demographic characteristics, underlying health conditions, socioeconomic status proxies and healthcare utilisation.

Results

By end 2022, only 41% of surviving adults had completed vaccination and 8% a booster dose, despite several waves of severe COVID-19. Recent vaccination was associated with notable reductions in severe COVID-19 during distinct analysis periods dominated by Delta, Omicron BA.1/2 and BA.4/5 (sub)lineages: within 6 months of completing vaccination or boosting, vaccine effectiveness was 46-92% for death (range across periods), 45-92% for admission with severe disease or death, and 25-90% for any admission or death. During the Omicron BA.4/5 wave, within 3 months of vaccination or boosting, BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2.S were each 84% effective against death (95% CIs: 57-94 and 49-95, respectively). However, there were distinct reductions of VE at larger times post completing or boosting vaccination.

Conclusions

Continued emphasis on regular COVID-19 vaccination including boosting is important for those at high risk of severe COVID-19 even in settings with widespread infection-induced immunity.

Rapid Emergence and Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Advanced HIV Infection

Previous studies have linked the evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) genetic variants to persistent infections in people with immunocompromising conditions1-4, but the evolutionary processes underlying these observations are incompletely understood. Here we used high-throughput, single-genome amplification and sequencing (HT-SGS) to obtain up to ~103 SARS-CoV-2 spike gene sequences in each of 184 respiratory samples from 22 people with HIV (PWH) and 25 people without HIV (PWOH). Twelve of 22 PWH had advanced HIV infection, defined by peripheral blood CD4 T cell counts (i.e., CD4 counts) <200 cells/μL. In PWOH and PWH with CD4 counts ≥200 cells/μL, most single-genome spike sequences in each person matched one haplotype that predominated throughout the infection. By contrast, people with advanced HIV showed elevated intra-host spike diversity with a median of 46 haplotypes per person (IQR 14-114). Higher intra-host spike diversity immediately after COVID-19 symptom onset predicted longer SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding among PWH, and intra-host spike diversity at this timepoint was significantly higher in people with advanced HIV than in PWOH. Composition of spike sequence populations in people with advanced HIV fluctuated rapidly over time, with founder sequences often replaced by groups of new haplotypes. These population-level changes were associated with a high total burden of intra-host mutations and positive selection at functionally important residues. In several cases, delayed emergence of detectable serum binding to spike was associated with positive selection for presumptive antibody-escape mutations. Taken together, our findings show remarkable intra-host genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in advanced HIV infection and suggest that adaptive intra-host SARS-CoV-2 evolution in this setting may contribute to the emergence of new variants of concern (VOCs).

Incidence and transmission of respiratory syncytial virus in urban and rural South Africa, 2017-2018

Data on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) incidence and household transmission are limited. To describe RSV incidence and transmission, we conducted a prospective cohort study in rural and urban communities in South Africa over two seasons during 2017-2018. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected twice-weekly for 10 months annually and tested for RSV using PCR. We tested 81,430 samples from 1,116 participants in 225 households (follow-up 90%). 32% (359/1116) of individuals had ≥1 RSV infection; 10% (37/359) had repeat infection during the same season, 33% (132/396) of infections were symptomatic, and 2% (9/396) sought medical care. Incidence was 47.2 infections/100 person-years and highest in children <5 years (78.3). Symptoms were commonest in individuals aged <12 and ≥65 years. Individuals 1-12 years accounted for 55% (134/242) of index cases. Household cumulative infection risk was 11%. On multivariable analysis, index cases with ≥2 symptoms and shedding duration >10 days were more likely to transmit; household contacts aged 1-4 years vs. ≥65 years were more likely to acquire infection. Within two South African communities, RSV attack rate was high, and most infections asymptomatic. Young children were more likely to introduce RSV into the home, and to be infected. Future studies should examine whether vaccines targeting children aged <12 years could reduce community transmission.

Association of HIV Exposure and HIV Infection With In-hospital Mortality Among Hospitalized Infants <1 Year of Age, South Africa, 2016-2018

We enrolled 1323 hospitalized infants aged <1 year in 2016-2018, and examined the association between HIV status and in-hospital mortality. After controlling for confounders, HIV-exposed uninfected infants did not have an increased risk of mortality, whereas infants living with HIV had 4 times greater risk compared with HIV-uninfected infants.

Evolution and neutralization escape of the SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86 subvariant

Omicron BA.2.86 subvariant differs from Omicron BA.2 as well as recently circulating variants by over 30 mutations in the spike protein alone. Here we report on the isolation of the live BA.2.86 subvariant from a diagnostic swab collected in South Africa which we tested for escape from neutralizing antibodies and viral replication properties in cell culture. We found that BA.2.86 does not have significantly more escape relative to Omicron XBB.1.5 from neutralizing immunity elicited by either Omicron XBB-family subvariant infection or from residual neutralizing immunity of recently collected sera from the South African population. BA.2.86 does have extensive escape relative to ancestral virus with the D614G substitution (B.1 lineage) when neutralized by sera from pre-Omicron vaccinated individuals and relative to Omicron BA.1 when neutralized by sera from Omicron BA.1 infected individuals. BA.2.86 and XBB.1.5 show similar viral infection dynamics in the VeroE6-TMPRSS2 and H1299-ACE2 cell lines. We also investigate the relationship of BA.2.86 to BA.2 sequences. The closest BA.2 sequences are BA.2 samples from Southern Africa circulating in early 2022. Similarly, many basal BA.2.86 sequences were sampled in Southern Africa. This suggests that BA.2.86 potentially evolved in this region, and that unobserved evolution led to escape from neutralizing antibodies similar in scale to recently circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2.

Genomic characterization of Bordetella pertussis in South Africa, 2015-2019

Pertussis remains a public health concern in South Africa, with an increase in reported cases and outbreaks in recent years. Whole genome sequencing was performed on 32 Bordetella pertussis isolates sourced from three different surveillance programmes in South Africa between 2015 and 2019. Genome sequences were characterized using multilocus sequence typing, vaccine antigen genes (ptxP, ptxA, ptxB, prn and fimH) and overall genome structure. All isolates were sequence type 2 and harboured the pertussis toxin promoter allele ptxP3. The dominant genotype was ptxP3-ptxA1-ptxB2-prn2-fimH2 (31/32, 96.9 %), with no pertactin-deficient or other mutations in vaccine antigen genes identified. Amongst 21 isolates yielding closed genome assemblies, eight distinct genome structures were detected, with 61.9 % (13/21) of the isolates exhibiting three predominant structures. Increases in case numbers are probably not due to evolutionary changes in the genome but possibly due to other factors such as the cyclical nature of B. pertussis disease, waning immunity due to the use of acellular vaccines and/or population immunity gaps.

Transient increased risk of influenza infection following RSV infection in South Africa: findings from the PHIRST study, South Africa, 2016-2018

BACKGROUND

Large-scale prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection may have ecological consequences for co-circulating pathogens, including influenza. We assessed if and for how long RSV infection alters the risk for subsequent influenza infection.

METHODS

We analysed a prospective longitudinal cohort study conducted in South Africa between 2016 and 2018. For participating households, nasopharyngeal samples were taken twice weekly, irrespective of symptoms, across three respiratory virus seasons, and real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to identify infection with RSV and/or influenza. We fitted an individual-level hidden Markov transmission model in order to estimate RSV and influenza infection rates and their interdependence.

RESULTS

Of a total of 122,113 samples collected, 1265 (1.0%) were positive for influenza and 1002 (0.8%) positive for RSV, with 15 (0.01%) samples from 12 individuals positive for both influenza and RSV. We observed a 2.25-fold higher incidence of co-infection than expected if assuming infections were unrelated. We estimated that infection with influenza is 2.13 (95% CI 0.97-4.69) times more likely when already infected with, and for a week following, RSV infection, adjusted for age. This equates to 1.4% of influenza infections that may be attributable to RSV in this population. Due to the local seasonality (RSV season precedes the influenza season), we were unable to estimate changes in RSV infection risk following influenza infection.

CONCLUSIONS

We find no evidence to suggest that RSV was associated with a subsequent reduced risk of influenza infection. Instead, we observed an increased risk for influenza infection for a short period after infection. However, the impact on population-level transmission dynamics of this individual-level synergistic effect was not measurable in this setting.

TNFAIP3-interacting protein 1 polymorphisms and their association with symptomatic human respiratory syncytial virus infection and bronchiolitis in infants younger than one year from South Africa: A case-control study

OBJECTIVES

This study analyzed the association of TNFAIP3-interacting protein 1 (TNIP1) polymorphisms with the symptomatic human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) infection and bronchiolitis in infants.

METHODS

A case-control study was conducted involving 129 hospitalized infants with symptomatic HRSV infection (case group) and 161 healthy infants (control group) in South Africa (2016-2018). Six TNIP1 polymorphisms (rs869976, rs4958881, rs73272842, rs3792783, rs17728338, and rs999011) were genotyped. Genetic associations were evaluated using logistic regression adjusted by age and gender.

RESULTS

Both rs73272842 G and rs999011 C alleles were associated with reduced odds for symptomatic HRSV infection (adjusted odd ratio [aOR] = 0.68 [95% confidence interval {CI} = 0.48-0.96] and aOR = 0.36 [95% CI = 0.19-0.68], respectively] and bronchiolitis (aOR = 0.71 [95% CI = 0.50-1.00] and aOR = 0.38 [95% CI = 0.22-0.66], respectively). The significance of these associations was validated using the BCa Bootstrap method (P <0.05). The haplotype GC (composed of rs73272842 and rs999011) was associated with reduced odds of symptomatic HRSV infection (aOR = 0.53 [95% CI = 0.37-0.77]) and bronchiolitis (aOR = 0.62 [95% CI = 0.46-0.84]), which were validated by the BCa Bootstrap method (P = 0.002 for both).

CONCLUSION

TNIP1 rs73272842 G allele and rs999011 C allele were associated with reduced odds of symptomatic HRSV infection and the development of bronchiolitis in infants, suggesting that TNIP1 polymorphisms could impact susceptibility to HRSV illness.

SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance in wastewater as a model for monitoring evolution of endemic viruses

As global SARS-CoV-2 burden and testing frequency have decreased, wastewater surveillance has emerged as a key tool to support clinical surveillance efforts. The aims of this study were to identify and characterize SARS-CoV-2 variants in wastewater samples collected from urban centers across South Africa. Here we show that wastewater sequencing analyses are temporally concordant with clinical genomic surveillance and reveal the presence of multiple lineages not detected by clinical surveillance. We show that wastewater genomics can support SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological investigations by reliably recovering the prevalence of local circulating variants, even when clinical samples are not available. Further, we find that analysis of mutations observed in wastewater can provide a signal of upcoming lineage transitions. Our study demonstrates the utility of wastewater genomics to monitor evolution and spread of endemic viruses.

International Pediatric COVID-19 Severity Over the Course of the Pandemic

Importance

Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged over the COVID-19 pandemic. The implications for COVID-19 severity in children worldwide are unclear.

Objective

To determine whether the dominant circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) were associated with differences in COVID-19 severity among hospitalized children.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Clinical data from hospitalized children and adolescents (younger than 18 years) who were SARS-CoV-2 positive were obtained from 9 countries (Australia, Brazil, Italy, Portugal, South Africa, Switzerland, Thailand, UK, and the US) during 3 different time frames. Time frames 1 (T1), 2 (T2), and 3 (T3) were defined to represent periods of dominance by the ancestral virus, pre-Omicron VOCs, and Omicron, respectively. Age groups for analysis were younger than 6 months, 6 months to younger than 5 years, and 5 to younger than 18 years. Children with an incidental positive test result for SARS-CoV-2 were excluded.

Exposures

SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization during the stipulated time frame.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The severity of disease was assessed by admission to intensive care unit (ICU), the need for ventilatory support, or oxygen therapy.

Results

Among 31 785 hospitalized children and adolescents, the median age was 4 (IQR 1-12) years and 16 639 were male (52.3%). In children younger than 5 years, across successive SARS-CoV-2 waves, there was a reduction in ICU admission (T3 vs T1: risk ratio [RR], 0.56; 95% CI, 0.42-0.75 [younger than 6 months]; RR, 0.61, 95% CI; 0.47-0.79 [6 months to younger than 5 years]), but not ventilatory support or oxygen therapy. In contrast, ICU admission (T3 vs T1: RR, 0.39, 95% CI, 0.32-0.48), ventilatory support (T3 vs T1: RR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.27-0.51), and oxygen therapy (T3 vs T1: RR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.32-0.70) decreased across SARS-CoV-2 waves in children 5 years to younger than 18 years old. The results were consistent when data were restricted to unvaccinated children.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study provides valuable insights into the impact of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs on the severity of COVID-19 in hospitalized children across different age groups and countries, suggesting that while ICU admissions decreased across the pandemic in all age groups, ventilatory and oxygen support generally did not decrease over time in children aged younger than 5 years. These findings highlight the importance of considering different pediatric age groups when assessing disease severity in COVID-19.

The attributable fraction of respiratory syncytial virus among patients of different ages with influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory illness in a high HIV prevalence setting, South Africa, 2012-2016

OBJECTIVES

The detection of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in upper airway samples does not necessarily infer causality of illness. We aimed to calculate the attributable fraction (AF) of RSV in clinical syndromes across age groups.

METHODS

Using unconditional logistic regression models, we estimated the AF of RSV-associated influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) cases by comparing RSV detection prevalence among ILI and SARI cases to those of healthy controls in South Africa, 2012-2016. The analysis, stratified by HIV serostatus, was conducted in the age categories <1, 1-4, 5-24, 25-44, 45-64, and ≥65 years.

RESULTS

We included 12,048 individuals: 2687 controls, 5449 ILI cases, and 5449 SARI cases. RSV-AFs for ILI were significant in <1, 1-4, 5-and 24, 25-44-year age groups: 84.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 69.3-92.6%), 74.6% (95% CI 53.6-86.0%), 60.8% (95% CI 21.4-80.5%) and 64.1% (95% CI 14.9-84.9%), respectively. Similarly, significant RSV-AFs for SARI were 95.3% (95% CI 91.1-97.5) and 83.4% (95% CI 70.9-90.5) in the <1 and 1-4-year age groups respectively. In HIV-infected persons, RSV was significantly associated with ILI cases vs controls in individuals aged 5-44 years.

CONCLUSION

High RSV-AFs in young children confirm RSV detection is associated with severe respiratory illness in South African children, specifically infants. These estimates will assist with refining burden estimates and cost-effectiveness models.

Healthcare utilization during the first two waves of the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa: A cross-sectional household survey

Healthcare utilization surveys contextualize facility-based surveillance data for burden estimates. We describe healthcare utilization in the catchment areas for sentinel site healthcare facilities during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a cross-sectional healthcare utilization survey in households in three communities from three provinces (KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape and North West). Field workers administered structured questionnaires electronically with the household members reporting influenza-like illness (ILI) in the past 30 days or severe respiratory illness (SRI) since March 2020. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with healthcare utilization among individuals that reported illness. From November 2020 through April 2021, we enrolled 5804 households and 23,003 individuals. Any respiratory illness was reported by 1.6% of individuals; 0.7% reported ILI only, 0.8% reported SRI only, and 0.1% reported both ILI and SRI. Any form of medical care was sought by 40.8% (95% CI 32.9% - 49.6%) and 71.3% (95% CI 63.2% - 78.6%) of individuals with ILI and SRI, respectively. On multivariable analysis, respiratory illness was more likely to be medically attended for individuals at the Pietermaritzburg site (aOR 3.2, 95% CI 1.1-9.5, compared to Klerksdorp), that were underweight (aOR 11.5, 95% CI 1.5-90.2, compared to normal weight), with underlying illness (aOR 3.2, 95%CI 1.2-8.5), that experienced severe illness (aOR 4.8, 95% CI 1.6-14.3) and those with symptom duration of ≥10 days (aOR 7.9, 95% CI 2.1-30.2, compared to <5 days). Less than half of ILI episodes and only 71% of SRI episodes were medically attended during the first two COVID-19 waves in South Africa. Facility-based data may underestimate disease burden during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Association of close-range contact patterns with SARS-CoV-2: a household transmission study

Background

Households are an important location for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, especially during periods when travel and work was restricted to essential services. We aimed to assess the association of close-range contact patterns with SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Methods

We deployed proximity sensors for two weeks to measure face-to-face interactions between household members after SARS-CoV-2 was identified in the household, in South Africa, 2020-2021. We calculated the duration, frequency, and average duration of close-range proximity events with SARS-CoV-2 index cases. We assessed the association of contact parameters with SARS-CoV-2 transmission using mixed effects logistic regression accounting for index and household member characteristics.

Results

We included 340 individuals (88 SARS-CoV-2 index cases and 252 household members). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 acquisition were index cases with minimum C_t value <30 (aOR 16.8 95% CI 3.1-93.1) vs >35, and female contacts (aOR 2.5 95% CI 1.3-5.0). No contact parameters were associated with acquisition (aOR 1.0-1.1) for any of the duration, frequency, cumulative time in contact, or average duration parameters.

Conclusions

We did not find an association between close-range proximity events and SARS-CoV-2 household transmission. Our findings may be due to study limitations, that droplet-mediated transmission during close-proximity contacts plays a smaller role than airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the household, or due to high contact rates in households.

Funding

Wellcome Trust (Grant number 221003/Z/20/Z) in collaboration with the Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office, United Kingdom.

Knowledge, attitudes, practices and intention to get vaccinated against COVID-19: results from a cross-sectional survey in three peri-urban communities in South Africa

Introduction

South Africa has the largest number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Africa. Data to inform public health strategies to mitigate the spread of new variants and severity of disease is needed, including information on knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) regarding COVID-19, factors associated with intention to get vaccinated, and viewpoints on reliable sources of data.

Methods

we investigated these topics as part of the COVID-19 healthcare utilization and seroprevalence (HUTS) cross-sectional survey in three communities in South Africa: Mitchell´s Plain (Western Cape Province), Pietermaritzburg (KwaZulu-Natal Province) and Klerksdorp (North West Province) during and after the second wave of COVID-19 prior to vaccine availability.

Results

primary caregivers from 5799 households participated in the study, 41.1% from Pietermaritzburg, 34.2% from Klerksdorp and 24.7% from Mitchells Plain. Two-thirds and 94.7% of respondents had correct knowledge on the cause and spread of COVID-19, respectively. Knowledge measures were significantly associated with age less than 65 years, the highest level of education and site (Mitchells Plain). Desired preventive behaviors were associated with higher socio-economic status. While 64.7% of people intended to get vaccinated, those over 64 years of age were more likely to intend to vaccinate (aOR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.06-1.47). Vaccine intention related to protection of self (58.4%) and family (40.0%). The most trusted source of COVID-19 information was television (59.3%) followed by radio (20.0%).

Conclusion

these data can be used to design targeted public health campaigns for the current COVID-19 and future epidemics, ensuring that socio-economic constraints and preference for trusted information are considered.

Trends in Cases, Hospitalizations, and Mortality Related to the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 Subvariants in South Africa

BACKGROUND

In this study, we compared admission incidence risk and the risk of mortality in the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave to previous waves.

METHODS

Data from South Africa's SARS-CoV-2 case linelist, national COVID-19 hospital surveillance system, and Electronic Vaccine Data System were linked and analyzed. Wave periods were defined when the country passed a weekly incidence of 30 cases/100 000 population. In-hospital case fatality ratios (CFRs) during the Delta, Omicron BA.1/BA.2, and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 waves were compared using post-imputation random effect multivariable logistic regression models.

RESULTS

The CFR was 25.9% (N = 37 538 of 144 778), 10.9% (N = 6123 of 56 384), and 8.2% (N = 1212 of 14 879) in the Delta, Omicron BA.1/BA.2, and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 waves, respectively. After adjusting for age, sex, race, comorbidities, health sector, and province, compared with the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave, patients had higher risk of mortality in the Omicron BA.1/BA.2 wave (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-1.4) and Delta wave (aOR, 3.0; 95% CI: 2.8-3.2). Being partially vaccinated (aOR, 0.9; 95% CI: .9-.9), fully vaccinated (aOR, 0.6; 95% CI: .6-.7), and boosted (aOR, 0.4; 95% CI: .4-.5) and having prior laboratory-confirmed infection (aOR, 0.4; 95% CI: .3-.4) were associated with reduced risks of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, admission incidence risk and in-hospital mortality, which had increased progressively in South Africa's first 3 waves, decreased in the fourth Omicron BA.1/BA.2 wave and declined even further in the fifth Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave. Mortality risk was lower in those with natural infection and vaccination, declining further as the number of vaccine doses increased.

The economic burden of RSV-associated illness in children aged < 5 years, South Africa 2011-2016

BACKGROUND

Data on the economic burden of RSV-associated illness will inform decisions on the programmatic implementation of maternal vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. We estimated the cost of RSV-associated illness in fine age bands to allow more accurate cost-effectiveness models to account for a limited duration of protection conferred by short- or long-acting interventions.

METHODS

We conducted a costing study at sentinel sites across South Africa to estimate out-of-pocket and indirect costs for RSV-associated mild and severe illness. We collected facility-specific costs for staffing, equipment, services, diagnostic tests, and treatment. Using case-based data we calculated a patient day equivalent (PDE) for RSV-associated hospitalizations or clinic visits; the PDE was multiplied by the number of days of care to provide a case cost to the healthcare system. We estimated the costs in 3-month age intervals in children aged < 1 year and as a single group for children aged 1-4 years. We then applied our data to a modified version of the World Health Organization tool for estimating the mean annual national cost burden, including medically and non-medically attended RSV-associated illness.

RESULTS

The estimated mean annual cost of RSV-associated illness in children aged < 5 years was US dollars ($)137,204,393, of which 76% ($111,742,713) were healthcare system incurred, 6% ($8,881,612) were out-of-pocket expenses and 13% ($28,225,.801) were indirect costs. Thirty-three percent ($45,652,677/$137,204,393) of the total cost in children aged < 5 years was in the < 3-month age group, of which 52% ($71,654,002/$137,204,393) were healthcare system incurred. The costs of non-medically attended cases increased with age from $3,307,218 in the < 3-month age group to $8,603,377 in the 9-11-month age group.

CONCLUSIONS

Among children < 5 years of age with RSV in South Africa, the highest cost burden was in the youngest infants; therefore, interventions against RSV targeting this age group are important to reduce the health and cost burden of RSV-associated illness.

The burden of RSV-associated illness in children aged < 5 years, South Africa, 2011 to 2016

BACKGROUND

Vaccines and monoclonal antibodies to protect the very young infant against the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated illness are effective for limited time periods. We aimed to estimate age-specific burden to guide implementation strategies and cost-effectiveness analyses.

METHODS

We combined case-based surveillance and ecological data to generate a national estimate of the burden of RSV-associated acute respiratory illness (ARI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) in South African children aged < 5 years (2011-2016), including adjustment for attributable fraction. We estimated the RSV burden by month of life in the < 1-year age group, by 3-month intervals until 2 years, and then 12 monthly intervals to < 5 years for medically and non-medically attended illness.

RESULTS

We estimated a mean annual total (medically and non-medically attended) of 264,112 (95% confidence interval (CI) 134,357-437,187) cases of RSV-associated ARI and 96,220 (95% CI 66,470-132,844) cases of RSV-associated SARI (4.7% and 1.7% of the population aged < 5 years, respectively). RSV-associated ARI incidence was highest in 2-month-old infants (18,361/100,000 population, 95% CI 9336-28,466). The highest incidence of RSV-associated SARI was in the < 1-month age group 14,674/100,000 (95% CI 11,175-19,645). RSV-associated deaths were highest in the first and second month of life (110.8 (95% CI 74.8-144.5) and 111.3 (86.0-135.8), respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Due to the high burden of RSV-associated illness, specifically SARI cases in young infants, maternal vaccination and monoclonal antibody products delivered at birth could prevent significant RSV-associated disease burden.

Unmasking Pneumococcal Carriage in a High Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Prevalence Population in two Community Cohorts in South Africa, 2016-2018: The PHIRST Study

BACKGROUND

Longitudinal pneumococcus colonization data in high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence settings following pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction are limited.

METHODS

In 327 randomly selected households, 1684 individuals were enrolled and followed-up for 6 to 10 months during 2016 through 2018 from 2 communities. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected twice weekly and tested for pneumococcus using quantitative lytA real-time polymerase chain reaction. A Markov model was fitted to the data to define the start and end of an episode of colonization. We assessed factors associated with colonization using logistic regression.

RESULTS

During the study period, 98% (1655/1684) of participants were colonized with pneumococcus at least once. Younger age (<5 years: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 14.1; 95% confidence [CI], 1.8-111.3, and 5-24 years: aOR, 4.8, 95% CI, 1.9-11.9, compared with 25-44 years) and HIV infection (aOR, 10.1; 95% CI, 1.3-77.1) were associated with increased odds of colonization. Children aged <5 years had fewer colonization episodes (median, 9) than individuals ≥5 years (median, 18; P < .001) but had a longer episode duration (<5 years: 35.5 days; interquartile range, 17-88) vs. ≥5 years: 5.5 days (4-12). High pneumococcal loads were associated with age (<1 year: aOR 25.4; 95% CI, 7.4-87.6; 1-4 years: aOR 13.5, 95% CI 8.3-22.9; 5-14 years: aOR 3.1, 95% CI, 2.1-4.4 vs. 45-65 year old patients) and HIV infection (aOR 1.7; 95% CI 1.2-2.4).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed high levels of pneumococcus colonization across all age groups. Children and people with HIV were more likely to be colonized and had higher pneumococcal loads. Carriage duration decreased with age highlighting that children remain important in pneumococcal transmission.

Incidence and Transmission Dynamics of Bordetella pertussis Infection in Rural and Urban Communities, South Africa, 2016‒2018

We conducted 3 prospective cohort studies (2016-2018), enrolling persons from 2 communities in South Africa. Nasopharyngeal swab specimens were collected twice a week from participants. Factors associated with Bordetella pertussis incidence, episode duration, and household transmission were determined by using Poisson regression, Weibull accelerated time-failure, and logistic regression hierarchical models, respectively. Among 1,684 participants, 118 episodes of infection were detected in 107 participants (incidence 0.21, 95% CI 0.17-0.25 infections/100 person-weeks). Children <5 years of age who had incomplete vaccination were more likely to have pertussis infection. Episode duration was longer for participants who had higher bacterial loads. Transmission was more likely to occur from male index case-patients and persons who had >7 days infection duration. In both communities, there was high incidence of B. pertussis infection and most cases were colonized.

Outcomes of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during resurgence driven by Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 compared with previous waves in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to compare the clinical severity of Omicron BA.4/BA.5 infection with BA.1 and earlier variant infections among laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in the Western Cape, South Africa, using timing of infection to infer the lineage/variant causing infection.

METHODS

We included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between May 01-May 21, 2022 (BA.4/BA.5 wave) and equivalent previous wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of (i) death and (ii) severe hospitalization/death (all within 21 days of diagnosis) using Cox regression adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, admission pressure, vaccination, and previous infection.

RESULTS

Among 3793 patients from the BA.4/BA.5 wave and 190,836 patients from previous waves, the risk of severe hospitalization/death was similar in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 waves (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93; 1.34). Both Omicron waves had a lower risk of severe outcomes than previous waves. Previous infection (aHR 0.29, 95% CI 0.24; 0.36) and vaccination (aHR 0.17; 95% CI 0.07; 0.40 for at least three doses vs no vaccine) were protective.

CONCLUSION

Disease severity was similar among diagnosed COVID-19 cases in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 periods in the context of growing immunity against SARS-CoV-2 due to previous infection and vaccination, both of which were strongly protective.

Changing epidemiology of COVID-19 in children and adolescents over four successive epidemic waves in South Africa, 2020-2022

BACKGROUND

South Africa experienced four waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection, dominated by Wuhan-Hu, Beta, Delta and Omicron (BA.1/BA.2). We describe the trends in SARS-CoV-2 testing, cases, admissions, and deaths among children and adolescents in South Africa over successive waves.

METHODS

We analysed national SARS-CoV-2 testing, case, and admissions data from March 2020 to February 2022 and estimated cumulative rates by age group for each endpoint. Severity in the third versus the fourth wave was assessed using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Individuals ≤18 years comprised 35% (21,008,060/60,142,978) of the population but only 12% (424,394/3,593,644) of cases and 6% (26,176/451,753) of admissions. Among individuals ≤18 years, infants had the highest admission (505/100,000) rates. Testing, case and admission rates generally increased successively in the second (Beta) and third (Delta) waves among all age groups. In the fourth (Omicron BA.1/BA.2) wave the case rate dropped among individuals ≥1-year but increased among those <1-year. Weekly admission rates for children <1-year (169/100,000) exceeded rates in adults (124/100,000) in the fourth wave. The odds of severe COVID-19 in all admitted cases were lower in the fourth wave versus the third wave in each age group, but they were twice as high in admitted cases with at least one comorbidity than those without.

CONCLUSIONS

The admission rate for children <5 years was higher in the fourth wave than previous waves, but the overall outcomes were less severe. However, children with at least one comorbidity had increased odds of severe disease, warranting consideration of prioritising this group for vaccination.

High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in pregnant women after the second wave of infections in the inner-city of Johannesburg, Gauteng Province, South Africa

OBJECTIVES

After South Africa's second wave of COVID-19, this study estimated the SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among pregnant women in inner-city Johannesburg, South Africa.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional survey, 500 pregnant women who were non-COVID-19-vaccinated (aged ≥12 years) were enrolled, and demographic and clinical data were collected. Serum samples were tested using the Wantai SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and Roche Elecsys® anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody assays. Seropositivity was defined as SARS-CoV-2 antibodies on either (primary) or both (secondary) assays. Univariate Poisson regression assessed risk factors associated with seropositivity.

RESULTS

The median age was 27.4 years, and HIV prevalence was 26.7%. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 64.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 59.6-68.2%) on the primary and 54% (95% CI: 49.5-58.4%) on the secondary measure. Most (96.6%) women who were SARS-CoV-2-seropositive reported no symptoms. On the Roche assay, we detected lower seroprevalence among women living with HIV than women without HIV (48.9% vs 61.7%, P-value = 0.018), and especially low levels among women living with HIV with a clusters of differentiation 4 <350 cells/ml compared with women without immune suppression (22.2% vs 56.4%, prevalence rate ratio = 0.4; 95% CI: 0.2-0.9; P-value = 0.046).

CONCLUSION

Pregnant women attending routine antenatal care had a high SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence after the second wave in South Africa, and most had asymptomatic infections. Seroprevalence surveys in pregnant women present a feasible method of monitoring the course of the pandemic over time.

Risk Factors for Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected and -Uninfected Individuals in South Africa, April 2020-March 2022: Data From Sentinel Surveillance

Background

Data on risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated hospitalization and mortality in high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence settings are limited.

Methods

Using existing syndromic surveillance programs for influenza-like-illness and severe respiratory illness at sentinel sites in South Africa, we identified factors associated with COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality.

Results

From April 2020 through March 2022, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 was detected in 24.0% (660 of 2746) of outpatient and 32.5% (2282 of 7025) of inpatient cases. Factors associated with COVID-19-associated hospitalization included the following: older age (25-44 [adjusted odds ratio {aOR}= 1.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.1-2.9], 45-64 [aOR = 6.8, 95% CI = 4.2-11.0] and ≥65 years [aOR = 26.6, 95% CI = 14.4-49.1] vs 15-24 years); black race (aOR, 3.3; 95% CI, 2.2-5.0); obesity (aOR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.4-3.9); asthma (aOR, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.4-8.9); diabetes mellitus (aOR, 5.3; 95% CI, 3.1-9.3); HIV with CD4 ≥200/mm³ (aOR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.2) and CD4 <200/mm³ (aOR, 10.5; 95% CI, 5.1-21.6) or tuberculosis (aOR, 12.8; 95% CI, 2.8-58.5). Infection with Beta (aOR, 0.5; 95% CI, .3-.7) vs Delta variant and being fully vaccinated (aOR, 0.1; 95% CI, .1-.3) were less associated with COVID-19 hospitalization. In-hospital mortality was increased in older age (45-64 years [aOR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.6-3.2] and ≥65 years [aOR, 4.0; 95% CI, 2.8-5.8] vs 25-44 years) and male sex (aOR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.6) and was lower in Omicron-infected (aOR, 0.3; 95% CI, .2-.6) vs Delta-infected individuals.

Conclusions

Active syndromic surveillance encompassing clinical, laboratory, and genomic data identified setting-specific risk factors associated with COVID-19 severity that will inform prioritization of COVID-19 vaccine distribution. Elderly people with tuberculosis or people with HIV, especially severely immunosuppressed, should be prioritized for vaccination.

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

Investment in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing in Africa over the past year has led to a major increase in the number of sequences that have been generated and used to track the pandemic on the continent, a number that now exceeds 100,000 genomes. Our results show an increase in the number of African countries that are able to sequence domestically and highlight that local sequencing enables faster turnaround times and more-regular routine surveillance. Despite limitations of low testing proportions, findings from this genomic surveillance study underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic and illuminate the distinct dispersal dynamics of variants of concern-particularly Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron-on the continent. Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve while the continent faces many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century.

Emergence of a multidrug-resistant and virulent Streptococcus pneumoniae lineage mediates serotype replacement after PCV13: an international whole-genome sequencing study

BACKGROUND

Serotype 24F is one of the emerging pneumococcal serotypes after the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV). We aimed to identify lineages driving the increase of serotype 24F in France and place these findings into a global context.

METHODS

Whole-genome sequencing was performed on a collection of serotype 24F pneumococci from asymptomatic colonisation (n=229) and invasive disease (n=190) isolates among individuals younger than 18 years in France, from 2003 to 2018. To provide a global context, we included an additional collection of 24F isolates in the Global Pneumococcal Sequencing (GPS) project database for analysis. A Global Pneumococcal Sequence Cluster (GPSC) and a clonal complex (CC) were assigned to each genome. Phylogenetic, evolutionary, and spatiotemporal analysis were conducted using the same 24F collection and supplemented with a global collection of genomes belonging to the lineage of interest from the GPS project database (n=25 590).

FINDINGS

Serotype 24F was identified in numerous countries mainly due to the clonal spread of three lineages: GPSC10 (CC230), GPSC16 (CC156), and GPSC206 (CC7701). GPSC10 was the only multidrug-resistant lineage. GPSC10 drove the increase in 24F in France and had high invasive disease potential. The international dataset of GPSC10 (n=888) revealed that this lineage expressed 16 other serotypes, with only six included in 13-valent PCV (PCV13). All serotype 24F isolates were clustered in a single clade within the GPSC10 phylogeny and long-range transmissions were detected from Europe to other continents. Spatiotemporal analysis showed GPSC10-24F took 3-5 years to spread across France and a rapid change of serotype composition from PCV13 serotype 19A to 24F during the introduction of PCV13 was observed in neighbouring country Spain.

INTERPRETATION

Our work reveals that GPSC10 alone is a challenge for serotype-based vaccine strategy. More systematic investigation to identify lineages like GPSC10 will better inform and improve next-generation preventive strategies against pneumococcal diseases.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Sanger Institute, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Household Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 From Adult Index Cases With and Without Human Immunodeficiency Virus in South Africa, 2020-2021: A Case-Ascertained, Prospective, Observational Household Transmission Study

BACKGROUND

In South Africa, 19% of adults are living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; LWH). Few data on the influence of HIV on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) household transmission are available.

METHODS

We performed a case-ascertained, prospective household transmission study of symptomatic adult index SARS-CoV-2 cases LWH and not living with HIV (NLWH) and their contacts from October 2020 to September 2021. Households were followed up 3 times a week for 6 weeks to collect nasal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 testing. We estimated household cumulative infection risk (HCIR) and duration of SARS-CoV-2 positivity (at a cycle threshold value <30 as proxy for high viral load).

RESULTS

HCIR was 59% (220 of 373), not differing by index HIV status (60% LWH vs 58% NLWH). HCIR increased with index case age (35-59 years: adjusted OR [aOR], 3.4; 95% CI, 1.5-7.8 and ≥60 years: aOR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.0-10.1) compared with 18-34 years and with contacts' age, 13-17 years (aOR, 7.1; 95% CI, 1.5-33.9) and 18-34 years (aOR, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.0-18.4) compared with <5 years. Mean positivity was longer in cases LWH (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.4; 95% CI, .1-.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Index HIV status was not associated with higher HCIR, but cases LWH had longer positivity duration. Adults aged >35 years were more likely to transmit and individuals aged 13-34 to be infected SARS-CoV-2 in the household. As HIV infection may increase transmission, health services must maintain HIV testing and antiretroviral therapy initiation.

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 in South Africa

Three lineages (BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3) of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant of concern predominantly drove South Africa's fourth Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) wave. We have now identified two new lineages, BA.4 and BA.5, responsible for a fifth wave of infections. The spike proteins of BA.4 and BA.5 are identical, and similar to BA.2 except for the addition of 69-70 deletion (present in the Alpha variant and the BA.1 lineage), L452R (present in the Delta variant), F486V and the wild-type amino acid at Q493. The two lineages differ only outside of the spike region. The 69-70 deletion in spike allows these lineages to be identified by the proxy marker of S-gene target failure, on the background of variants not possessing this feature. BA.4 and BA.5 have rapidly replaced BA.2, reaching more than 50% of sequenced cases in South Africa by the first week of April 2022. Using a multinomial logistic regression model, we estimated growth advantages for BA.4 and BA.5 of 0.08 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.08-0.09) and 0.10 (95% CI: 0.09-0.11) per day, respectively, over BA.2 in South Africa. The continued discovery of genetically diverse Omicron lineages points to the hypothesis that a discrete reservoir, such as human chronic infections and/or animal hosts, is potentially contributing to further evolution and dispersal of the virus.

Prolonged Shedding of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) at High Viral Loads Among Hospitalized Immunocompromised Persons Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), South Africa

BACKGROUND

We assessed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA shedding duration and magnitude among persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, PLHIV).

METHODS

From May through December 2020, we conducted a prospective cohort study at 20 hospitals in South Africa. Adults hospitalized with symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were enrolled and followed every 2 days with nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal (NP/OP) swabs until documentation of cessation of SARS-CoV-2 shedding (2 consecutive negative NP/OP swabs). Real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction testing for SARS-CoV-2 was performed, and cycle-threshold (Ct) values < 30 were considered a proxy for high SARS-CoV-2 viral load. Factors associated with prolonged shedding were assessed using accelerated time-failure Weibull regression models.

RESULTS

Of 2175 COVID-19 patients screened, 300 were enrolled, and 257 individuals (155 HIV-uninfected and 102 PLHIV) had > 1 swabbing visit (median 5 visits [range 2-21]). Median time to cessation of shedding was 13 days (interquartile range [IQR] 6-25) and did not differ significantly by HIV infection. Among a subset of 94 patients (41 PLHIV and 53 HIV-uninfected) with initial respiratory sample Ct-value < 30, median time of shedding at high SARS-CoV-2 viral load was 8 days (IQR 4-17). This was significantly longer in PLHIV with CD4 count < 200 cells/µL, compared to HIV-uninfected persons (median 27 days [IQR 8-43] vs 7 days [IQR 4-13]; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] .07-.28, P < .001), as well as in unsuppressed-HIV versus HIV-uninfected persons.

CONCLUSIONS

Although SARS-CoV-2 shedding duration did not differ significantly by HIV infection, among a subset with high initial SARS-CoV-2 viral loads, immunocompromised PLHIV shed SARS-CoV-2 at high viral loads for longer than HIV-uninfected persons. Better HIV control may potentially decrease transmission time of SARS-CoV-2.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission, persistence of immunity, and estimates of Omicron's impact in South African population cohorts

Understanding the build-up of immunity with successive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants and the epidemiological conditions that favor rapidly expanding epidemics will help facilitate future pandemic control. We analyzed high-resolution infection and serology data from two longitudinal household cohorts in South Africa to reveal high cumulative infection rates and durable cross-protective immunity conferred by prior infection in the pre-Omicron era. Building on the history of past exposures to different SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination in the cohort most representative of South Africa's high urbanization rate, we used mathematical models to explore the fitness advantage of the Omicron variant and its epidemic trajectory. Modeling suggests that the Omicron wave likely infected a large fraction (44 to 81%) of the population, leaving a complex landscape of population immunity primed and boosted with antigenically distinct variants. We project that future SARS-CoV-2 resurgences are likely under a range of scenarios of viral characteristics, population contacts, and residual cross-protection.

Seroprevalence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 After the Second Wave in South Africa in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected and Uninfected Persons: A Cross-Sectional Household Survey

BACKGROUND

Seroprevalence studies are important for quantifying the burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in resource-constrained countries.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional household survey spanning the second pandemic wave (November 2020 to April 2021) in 3 communities. Blood was collected for SARS-CoV-2 antibody (2 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays targeting spike and nucleocapsid) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing. An individual was considered seropositive if testing positive on ≥1 assay. Factors associated with infection, and the age-standardized infection case detection rate, infection hospitalization rate, and infection fatality rate were calculated.

RESULTS

Overall, 7959 participants were enrolled, with a median age of 34 years and an HIV prevalence of 22.7%. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 45.2% (95% confidence interval 43.7%-46.7%) and increased from 26.9% among individuals enrolled in December 2020 to 47.1% among those enrolled in April 2021. On multivariable analysis, seropositivity was associated with age, sex, race, being overweight/obese, having respiratory symptoms, and low socioeconomic status. Persons living with HIV with high viral load were less likely to be seropositive than HIV-uninfected individuals. The site-specific infection case detection rate, infection hospitalization rate, and infection fatality rate ranged across sites from 4.4% to 8.2%, 1.2% to 2.5%, and 0.3% to 0.6%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

South Africa has experienced a large burden of SARS-CoV-2 infections, with <10% of infections diagnosed. Lower seroprevalence among persons living with HIV who are not virally suppressed, likely as a result of inadequate antibody production, highlights the need to prioritize this group for intervention.

Rapidly shifting immunologic landscape and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in the Omicron era in South Africa

South Africa was among the first countries to detect the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. Propelled by increased transmissibility and immune escape properties, Omicron displaced other globally circulating variants within 3 months of its emergence. Due to limited testing, Omicron's attenuated clinical severity, and an increased risk of reinfection, the size of the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants (BA.1/2) wave remains poorly understood in South Africa and in many other countries. Using South African data from urban and rural cohorts closely monitored since the beginning of the pandemic, we analyzed sequential serum samples collected before, during, and after the Omicron BA.1/2 wave to infer infection rates and monitor changes in the immune histories of participants over time. Omicron BA.1/2 infection attack rates reached 65% (95% CI, 60% - 69%) in the rural cohort and 58% (95% CI, 61% - 74%) in the urban cohort, with repeat infections and vaccine breakthroughs accounting for >60% of all infections at both sites. Combined with previously collected data on pre-Omicron variant infections within the same cohorts, we identified 14 distinct categories of SARS-CoV-2 antigen exposure histories in the aftermath of the Omicron BA.1/2 wave, indicating a particularly fragmented immunologic landscape. Few individuals (<6%) remained naïve to SARS-CoV-2 and no exposure history category represented over 25% of the population at either cohort site. Further, cohort participants were more than twice as likely to get infected during the Omicron BA.1/2 wave, compared to the Delta wave. Prior infection with the ancestral strain (with D614G mutation), Beta, and Delta variants provided 13% (95% CI, -21% - 37%), 34% (95% CI, 17% - 48%), and 51% (95% CI, 39% - 60%) protection against Omicron BA.1/2 infection, respectively. Hybrid immunity (prior infection and vaccination) and repeated prior infections (without vaccination) reduced the risks of Omicron BA.1/2 infection by 60% (95% CI, 42% - 72%) and 85% (95% CI, 76% - 92%) respectively. Reinfections and vaccine breakthroughs had 41% (95% CI, 26% - 53%) lower risk of onward transmission than primary infections. Our study sheds light on a rapidly shifting landscape of population immunity, along with the changing characteristics of SARS-CoV-2, and how these factors interact to shape the success of emerging variants. Our findings are especially relevant to populations similar to South Africa with low SARS-CoV-2 vaccine coverage and a dominant contribution of immunity from prior infection. Looking forward, the study provides context for anticipating the long-term circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in populations no longer naïve to the virus.

Outcomes of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during resurgence driven by Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 compared with previous waves in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

Objective

We aimed to compare clinical severity of Omicron BA.4/BA.5 infection with BA.1 and earlier variant infections among laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in the Western Cape, South Africa, using timing of infection to infer the lineage/variant causing infection.

Methods

We included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between 1-21 May 2022 (BA.4/BA.5 wave) and equivalent prior wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of (i) death and (ii) severe hospitalization/death (all within 21 days of diagnosis) using Cox regression adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, admission pressure, vaccination and prior infection.

Results

Among 3,793 patients from the BA.4/BA.5 wave and 190,836 patients from previous waves the risk of severe hospitalization/death was similar in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 waves (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93; 1.34). Both Omicron waves had lower risk of severe outcomes than previous waves. Prior infection (aHR 0.29, 95% CI 0.24; 0.36) and vaccination (aHR 0.17; 95% CI 0.07; 0.40 for boosted vs. no vaccine) were protective.

Conclusion

Disease severity was similar amongst diagnosed COVID-19 cases in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 periods in the context of growing immunity against SARS-CoV-2 due to prior infection and vaccination, both of which were strongly protective.

Pathogens detected using a syndromic molecular diagnostic platform in patients hospitalized with severe respiratory illness in South Africa in 2017

OBJECTIVES

We describe the use of a multi-pathogen platform, TaqMan array card (TAC) real-time PCR, for the detection of pathogens in patients hospitalized with severe respiratory illness (SRI).

METHODS

Prospective hospital-based syndromic surveillance for acute and chronic SRI was carried out at two sentinel sites in South Africa between January and December 2017. We tested respiratory specimens for 21 respiratory pathogens and blood samples for nine bacteria using TAC. Pathogen detection was compared by age group and HIV status using the chi-squared test.

RESULTS

During 2017, 956 patients of all ages were enrolled in the SRI surveillance, and of these, 637 (67%) patients were included in this study (637 blood, 487 naso- and oro-pharyngeal swabs and 411 sputum specimens tested). At least one pathogen was detected in 83% (527/637) of patients. Common pathogens detected included H. influenzae (225/637; 35%), S. pneumoniae (224/637; 35%), rhinovirus (144/637; 23%), S. aureus (129/637; 20%), K. pneumoniae (85/637; 13%), M. tuberculosis (75/637; 12%), and respiratory syncytial virus (57/637; 9%). Multiple pathogens (≥2) were co-detected in 57% (364/637) of patients.

CONCLUSION

While use of a multi-pathogen platform improved pathogen yield, pathogen co-detections were common and would need clinical assessment for usefulness in individual-level treatment and management decisions.

Outcomes of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Omicron-driven fourth wave compared with previous waves in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

OBJECTIVES

The objective was to compare COVID-19 outcomes in the Omicron-driven fourth wave with prior waves in the Western Cape, assess the contribution of undiagnosed prior infection to differences in outcomes in a context of high seroprevalence due to prior infection and determine whether protection against severe disease conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination was maintained.

METHODS

In this cohort study, we included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with a laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis between 14 November and 11 December 2021 (wave four) and equivalent prior wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of the following outcomes using Cox regression: death, severe hospitalisation or death and any hospitalisation or death (all ≤14 days after diagnosis) adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, geography, vaccination and prior infection.

RESULTS

We included 5144 patients from wave four and 11,609 from prior waves. The risk of all outcomes was lower in wave four compared to the Delta-driven wave three (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] for death 0.27 [0.19; 0.38]. Risk reduction was lower when adjusting for vaccination and prior diagnosed infection (aHR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.29; 0.59) and reduced further when accounting for unascertained prior infections (aHR: 0.72). Vaccine protection was maintained in wave four (aHR for outcome of death: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.10; 0.58).

CONCLUSIONS

In the Omicron-driven wave, severe COVID-19 outcomes were reduced mostly due to protection conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination, but intrinsically reduced virulence may account for a modest reduction in risk of severe hospitalisation or death compared to the Delta-driven wave.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence after Third Wave of Infections, South Africa

By November 2021, after the third wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections in South Africa, seroprevalence was 60% in a rural community and 70% in an urban community. High seroprevalence before the Omicron variant emerged may have contributed to reduced illness severity observed in the fourth wave.

Assessing the clinical severity of the Omicron variant in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, using the diagnostic PCR proxy marker of RdRp target delay to distinguish between Omicron and Delta infections - a survival analysis

BACKGROUND

At present, it is unclear whether the extent of reduced risk of severe disease seen with SARS-Cov-2 Omicron variant infection is caused by a decrease in variant virulence or by higher levels of population immunity.

METHODS

RdRp target delay (RTD) in the Seegene AllplexTM 2019-nCoV PCR assay is a proxy marker for the Delta variant. The absence of this proxy marker in the transition period was used to identify suspected Omicron infections. Cox regression was performed for the outcome of hospital admission in those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on the Seegene AllplexTM assay from November 1 to December 14, 2021 in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, in the public sector. Adjustments were made for vaccination status and prior diagnosis of infection.

RESULTS

A total of 150 cases with RTD and 1486 cases without RTD were included. Cases without RTD had a lower hazard of admission (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34-0.91). Complete vaccination was protective against admission, with an aHR of 0.45 (95% CI, 0.26-0.77).

CONCLUSION

Omicron has resulted in a lower risk of hospital admission compared with contemporaneous Delta infection, when using the proxy marker of RTD. Under-ascertainment of reinfections with an immune escape variant remains a challenge to accurately assessing variant virulence.

Human respiratory syncytial virus diversity and epidemiology among patients hospitalized with severe respiratory illness in South Africa, 2012-2015

BACKGROUND

We aimed to describe the prevalence of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) and evaluate associations between HRSV subgroups and/or genotypes and epidemiologic characteristics and clinical outcomes in patients hospitalized with severe respiratory illness (SRI).

METHODS

Between January 2012 and December 2015, we enrolled patients of all ages admitted to two South African hospitals with SRI in prospective hospital-based syndromic surveillance. We collected respiratory specimens and clinical and epidemiological data. Unconditional random effect multivariable logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with HRSV infection.

RESULTS

HRSV was detected in 11.2% (772/6908) of enrolled patients of which 47.0% (363/772) were under the age of 6 months. There were no differences in clinical outcomes of HRSV subgroup A-infected patients compared with HRSV subgroup B-infected patients but among patients aged <5 years, children with HRSV subgroup A were more likely be coinfected with Streptococcus pneumoniae (23/208, 11.0% vs. 2/90, 2.0%; adjusted odds ratio 5.7). No significant associations of HRSV A genotypes NA1 and ON1 with specific clinical outcomes were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

While HRSV subgroup and genotype dominance shifted between seasons, we showed similar genotype diversity as noted worldwide. We found no association between clinical outcomes and HRSV subgroups or genotypes.

Prolonged shedding of SARS-CoV-2 at high viral load amongst hospitalised immunocompromised persons living with HIV in South Africa

Purpose

Methods & Materials

Results

Conclusion

Rapid epidemic expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in southern Africa

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in southern Africa has been characterized by three distinct waves. The first was associated with a mix of SARS-CoV-2 lineages, while the second and third waves were driven by the Beta (B.1.351) and Delta (B.1.617.2) variants, respectively1-3. In November 2021, genomic surveillance teams in South Africa and Botswana detected a new SARS-CoV-2 variant associated with a rapid resurgence of infections in Gauteng province, South Africa. Within three days of the first genome being uploaded, it was designated a variant of concern (Omicron, B.1.1.529) by the World Health Organization and, within three weeks, had been identified in 87 countries. The Omicron variant is exceptional for carrying over 30 mutations in the spike glycoprotein, which are predicted to influence antibody neutralization and spike function4. Here we describe the genomic profile and early transmission dynamics of Omicron, highlighting the rapid spread in regions with high levels of population immunity.

The national burden of influenza-like illness and severe respiratory illness overall and associated with nine respiratory viruses in South Africa, 2013-2015

BACKGROUND

Estimates of the disease burden associated with different respiratory viruses are severely limited in low- and middle-income countries, especially in Africa.

METHODS

We estimated age-specific numbers and rates of medically and non-medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe respiratory illness (SRI) that were associated with influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinovirus, human metapneumovirus, adenovirus, enterovirus and parainfluenza virus types 1-3 after adjusting for the attributable fraction (AF) of virus detection to illness in South Africa during 2013-2015. The base rates were estimated from five surveillance sites and extrapolated nationally.

RESULTS

The mean annual rates per 100,000 population were 51,383 and 4196 for ILI and SRI, respectively. Of these, 26% (for ILI) and 46% (for SRI) were medically attended. Among outpatients with ILI, rhinovirus had the highest AF-adjusted rate (7221), followed by influenza (6443) and adenovirus (1364); whereas, among inpatients with SRI, rhinovirus had the highest AF-adjusted rate (400), followed by RSV (247) and influenza (130). Rhinovirus (9424) and RSV (2026) had the highest AF-adjusted rates among children aged <5 years with ILI or SRI, respectively, whereas rhinovirus (757) and influenza (306) had the highest AF-adjusted rates among individuals aged ≥65 years with ILI or SRI, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a substantial burden of ILI and SRI in South Africa during 2013-2015. Rhinovirus and influenza had a prominent disease burden among patients with ILI. RSV and influenza were the most prominent causes of SRI in children and the elderly, respectively.

Early assessment of the clinical severity of the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant in South Africa: a data linkage study

BACKGROUND

The SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant of concern was identified in South Africa in November, 2021, and was associated with an increase in COVID-19 cases. We aimed to assess the clinical severity of infections with the omicron variant using S gene target failure (SGTF) on the Thermo Fisher Scientific TaqPath COVID-19 PCR test as a proxy.

METHODS

We did data linkages for national, South African COVID-19 case data, SARS-CoV-2 laboratory test data, SARS-CoV-2 genome data, and COVID-19 hospital admissions data. For individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 via TaqPath PCR tests, infections were designated as either SGTF or non-SGTF. The delta variant was identified by genome sequencing. Using multivariable logistic regression models, we assessed disease severity and hospitalisations by comparing individuals with SGTF versus non-SGTF infections diagnosed between Oct 1 and Nov 30, 2021, and we further assessed disease severity by comparing SGTF-infected individuals diagnosed between Oct 1 and Nov 30, 2021, with delta variant-infected individuals diagnosed between April 1 and Nov 9, 2021.

FINDINGS

From Oct 1 (week 39), 2021, to Dec 6 (week 49), 2021, 161 328 cases of COVID-19 were reported in South Africa. 38 282 people were diagnosed via TaqPath PCR tests and 29 721 SGTF infections and 1412 non-SGTF infections were identified. The proportion of SGTF infections increased from two (3·2%) of 63 in week 39 to 21 978 (97·9%) of 22 455 in week 48. After controlling for factors associated with hospitalisation, individuals with SGTF infections had significantly lower odds of admission than did those with non-SGTF infections (256 [2·4%] of 10 547 vs 121 [12·8%] of 948; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·2, 95% CI 0·1-0·3). After controlling for factors associated with disease severity, the odds of severe disease were similar between hospitalised individuals with SGTF versus non-SGTF infections (42 [21%] of 204 vs 45 [40%] of 113; aOR 0·7, 95% CI 0·3-1·4). Compared with individuals with earlier delta variant infections, SGTF-infected individuals had a significantly lower odds of severe disease (496 [62·5%] of 793 vs 57 [23·4%] of 244; aOR 0·3, 95% CI 0·2-0·5), after controlling for factors associated with disease severity.

INTERPRETATION

Our early analyses suggest a significantly reduced odds of hospitalisation among individuals with SGTF versus non-SGTF infections diagnosed during the same time period. SGTF-infected individuals had a significantly reduced odds of severe disease compared with individuals infected earlier with the delta variant. Some of this reduced severity is probably a result of previous immunity.

FUNDING

The South African Medical Research Council, the South African National Department of Health, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the African Society of Laboratory Medicine, Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Wellcome Trust, and the Fleming Fund.

Outcomes of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Omicron-driven fourth wave compared with previous waves in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to compare COVID-19 outcomes in the Omicron-driven fourth wave with prior waves in the Western Cape, the contribution of undiagnosed prior infection to differences in outcomes in a context of high seroprevalence due to prior infection, and whether protection against severe disease conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination was maintained.

METHODS

In this cohort study, we included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with a laboratory confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis between 14 November-11 December 2021 (wave four) and equivalent prior wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of the following outcomes using Cox regression: death, severe hospitalization or death and any hospitalization or death (all ≤14 days after diagnosis) adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, geography, vaccination and prior infection.

RESULTS

We included 5,144 patients from wave four and 11,609 from prior waves. Risk of all outcomes was lower in wave four compared to the Delta-driven wave three (adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] for death 0.27 [0.19; 0.38]. Risk reduction was lower when adjusting for vaccination and prior diagnosed infection (aHR:0.41, 95% CI: 0.29; 0.59) and reduced further when accounting for unascertained prior infections (aHR: 0.72). Vaccine protection was maintained in wave four (aHR for outcome of death: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.10; 0.58).

CONCLUSIONS

In the Omicron-driven wave, severe COVID-19 outcomes were reduced mostly due to protection conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination, but intrinsically reduced virulence may account for an approximately 25% reduced risk of severe hospitalization or death compared to Delta.