An Oxford Nanopore Technology-Based Hepatitis B Virus Sequencing Protocol Suitable For Genomic Surveillance Within Clinical Diagnostic Settings

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a significant public health concern, particularly in Africa, where there is a substantial burden. HBV is an enveloped virus, with isolates being classified into ten phylogenetically distinct genotypes (A - J) determined based on full-genome sequence data or reverse hybridization-based diagnostic tests. In practice, limitations are noted in that diagnostic sequencing, generally using Sanger sequencing, tends to focus only on the S-gene, yielding little or no information on intra-patient HBV genetic diversity with very low-frequency variants and reverse hybridization detects only known genotype-specific mutations. To resolve these limitations, we developed an Oxford Nanopore Technology (ONT)-based HBV genotyping protocol suitable for clinical virology, yielding complete HBV genome sequences and extensive data on intra-patient HBV diversity. Specifically, the protocol involves tiling-based PCR amplification of HBV sequences, library preparation using the ONT Rapid Barcoding Kit, ONT GridION sequencing, genotyping using Genome Detective software, recombination analysis using jpHMM and RDP5 software, and drug resistance profiling using Geno2pheno software. We prove the utility of our protocol by efficiently generating and characterizing high-quality near full-length HBV genomes from 148 left-over diagnostic Hepatitis B patient samples obtained in the Western Cape province of South Africa, providing valuable insights into the genetic diversity and epidemiology of HBV in this region of the world.

Metabarcoding analysis of marine zooplankton confirms the ecological role of a sheltered bight along an exposed continental shelf

Zooplankton plays an essential role in marine ecosystems as the link between primary producers (phytoplankton) and higher trophic levels in food webs, and as a dynamic pool of recruits for invertebrates and fish. Zooplankton communities are diverse with a patchy distribution at different spatial scales, influenced by oceanographic processes. The continental shelf of eastern South Africa is narrow and exposed to the western-boundary Agulhas Current, with some shelter against strong directional flow provided by the broader KwaZulu-Natal Bight, a coastal offset adjacent to an estuary. We compared zooplankton species richness, diversity and relative abundance of key taxa among sheltered and exposed shelf areas using metabarcoding and community analysis, to explore the ecological role of the bight in a highly dynamic ocean region. Metabarcoding recovered higher richness and diversity at a finer resolution than could previously be achieved with traditional microscopy. Of 271 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) recovered through metabarcoding, 63% could be matched with >95% sequence similarity to reference barcodes. OTUs were dominated by malacostracan crustaceans (161 spp.), ray-finned fishes (45 spp.) and copepods (28 spp.). Species richness, diversity and the relative abundance of key taxa differed between sheltered and exposed shelf areas. Lower species richness in the bight was partly attributed to structurally homogeneous benthic habitats, and an associated reduction of meroplanktonic species originating from local benthic-pelagic exchange. High relative abundance of a ray-finned fish in the bight, as observed based on fish eggs and read counts, confirmed that the bight is an important fish spawning area. Overall, zooplankton metabarcoding outputs were congruent with findings of previous ecological research using more traditional methods of observation.

An emerging clade of Chikungunya West African genotype discovered in real-time during 2023 outbreak in Senegal

Chikungunya (CHIKV) is a re-emerging endemic arbovirus in West Africa. Since July 2023, Senegal and Burkina Faso have been experiencing an ongoing outbreak, with over 300 confirmed cases detected so far in the regions of Kédougou and Tambacounda in Senegal, the largest recorded outbreak yet. CHIKV is typically maintained in a sylvatic cycle in Senegal but its evolution and factors contributing to re-emergence are so far unknown in West Africa, leaving a gap in understanding and responding to recurrent epidemics. We produced, in real-time, the first locally-generated and publicly available CHIKV whole genomes in West Africa, to characterize the genetic diversity of circulating strains, along with phylodynamic analysis to estimate time of emergence and population growth dynamics. A novel strain of the West African genotype, phylogenetically distinct from strains circulating in previous outbreaks, was identified. This suggests a likely new spillover from sylvatic cycles in rural Senegal and potential of seeding larger epidemics in urban settings in Senegal and elsewhere.

Insights into SARS-CoV-2 in Angola during the COVID-19 peak: Molecular epidemiology and genome surveillance

Background

In Angola, COVID-19 cases have been reported in all provinces, resulting in >105,000 cases and >1900 deaths. However, no detailed genomic surveillance into the introduction and spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been conducted in Angola. We aimed to investigate the emergence and epidemic progression during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Angola.

Methods

We generated 1210 whole-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences, contributing West African data to the global context, that were phylogenetically compared against global strains. Virus movement events were inferred using ancestral state reconstruction.

Results

The epidemic in Angola was marked by four distinct waves of infection, dominated by 12 virus lineages, including VOCs, VOIs, and the VUM C.16, which was unique to South-Western Africa and circulated for an extended period within the region. Virus exchanges occurred between Angola and its neighboring countries, and strong links with Brazil and Portugal reflected the historical and cultural ties shared between these countries. The first case likely originated from southern Africa.

Conclusion

A lack of a robust genome surveillance network and strong dependence on out-of-country sequencing limit real-time data generation to achieve timely disease outbreak responses, which remains of the utmost importance to mitigate future disease outbreaks in Angola.

To Test or Not? Xpert MTB/RIF as an Alternative to Smear Microscopy to Guide Line Probe Assay Testing for Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis

Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) revolutionized tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis. Laboratory decision making on whether widely-used reflex drug susceptibility assays (MTBDRplus, first-line resistance; MTBDRsl, second-line) are conducted is based on smear status, with smear-negative specimens often excluded. We performed receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analyses using bacterial load information (smear microscopy grade, Xpert-generated semi-quantitation categories and minimum cycle threshold [CTmin] values) from Xpert rifampicin-resistant sputum for the prediction of downstream line probe assay results as "likely non-actionable" (no resistance or susceptible results generated). We evaluated actionable-to-non-actionable result ratios and pay-offs with missed resistance versus LPAs done universally. Smear-negatives were more likely than smear-positive specimens to generate a non-actionable MTBDRplus (23% [133/559] versus 4% [15/381]) or MTBDRsl (39% [220/559] versus 12% [47/381]) result. However, excluding smear-negatives would result in missed rapid diagnoses (e.g., only 49% [264/537] of LPA-diagnosable isoniazid resistance would be detected if smear-negatives were omitted). Testing smear-negatives with a semi-quantitation category ≥ "medium" had a high ratio of actionable-to-non-actionable results (12.8 or a 4-fold improvement versus testing all using MTBDRplus, 4.5 or 3-fold improvement for MTBDRsl), which would still capture 64% (168/264) and 77% (34/44) of LPA-detectable smear-negative resistance, respectively. Use of CTmins permitted optimization of this ratio with higher specificity for non-actionable results but decreased resistance detected. Xpert quantitative information permits identification of a smear-negative subset in whom the payoffs of the ratio of actionable-to-non-actionable LPA results with missed resistance may prove acceptable to laboratories, depending on context. Our findings permit the rational expansion of direct DST to certain smear-negative sputum specimens.

Correction: Subramoney et al. Molecular Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 during Five COVID-19 Waves and the Significance of Low-Frequency Lineages. Viruses 2023, 15, 1194

In the original publication [...].

SARS-CoV-2 spike protein diversity at an intra-host level, among SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals in South Africa, 2020 to 2022

Intra-host diversity studies are used to characterise the mutational heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 infections in order to understand the impact of virus-host adaptations. This study investigated the frequency and diversity of the spike (S) protein mutations within SARS-CoV-2 infected South African individuals. The study included SARS-CoV-2 respiratory samples, from individuals of all ages, received at the National Health Laboratory Service at Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic hospital, Gauteng, South Africa, from June 2020 to May 2022. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) assays and whole genome sequencing were performed on a random selection of SARS-CoV-2 positive samples. The allele frequency (AF) was determined using TaqMan Genotyper software for SNP PCR analysis and galaxy.eu for analysis of FASTQ reads from sequencing. The SNP assays identified 5.3% (50/948) of Delta cases with heterogeneity at delY144 (4%; 2/50), E484Q (6%; 3/50), N501Y (2%; 1/50) and P681H (88%; 44/50), however only heterogeneity for E484Q and delY144 were confirmed by sequencing. From sequencing we identified 9% (210/2381) of cases with Beta, Delta, Omicron BA.1, BA.2.15, and BA.4 lineages that had heterogeneity in the S protein. Heterogeneity was primarily identified at positions 19 (1.4%) with T19IR (AF 0.2-0.7), 371 (92.3%) with S371FP (AF 0.1-1.0), and 484 (1.9%) with E484AK (0.2-0.7), E484AQ (AF 0.4-0.5) and E484KQ (AF 0.1-0.4). Mutations at heterozygous amino acid positions 19, 371 and 484 are known antibody escape mutations, however the impact of the combination of multiple substitutions identified at the same position is unknown. Therefore, we hypothesise that intra-host SARS-CoV-2 quasispecies with heterogeneity in the S protein facilitate competitive advantage of variants that can completely/partially evade host's natural and vaccine-induced immune responses.

Molecular Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 during Five COVID-19 Waves and the Significance of Low-Frequency Lineages

SARS-CoV-2 lineages and variants of concern (VOC) have gained more efficient transmission and immune evasion properties with time. We describe the circulation of VOCs in South Africa and the potential role of low-frequency lineages on the emergence of future lineages. Whole genome sequencing was performed on SARS-CoV-2 samples from South Africa. Sequences were analysed with Nextstrain pangolin tools and Stanford University Coronavirus Antiviral & Resistance Database. In 2020, 24 lineages were detected, with B.1 (3%; 8/278), B.1.1 (16%; 45/278), B.1.1.348 (3%; 8/278), B.1.1.52 (5%; 13/278), C.1 (13%; 37/278) and C.2 (2%; 6/278) circulating during the first wave. Beta emerged late in 2020, dominating the second wave of infection. B.1 and B.1.1 continued to circulate at low frequencies in 2021 and B.1.1 re-emerged in 2022. Beta was outcompeted by Delta in 2021, which was thereafter outcompeted by Omicron sub-lineages during the 4th and 5th waves in 2022. Several significant mutations identified in VOCs were also detected in low-frequency lineages, including S68F (E protein); I82T (M protein); P13L, R203K and G204R/K (N protein); R126S (ORF3a); P323L (RdRp); and N501Y, E484K, D614G, H655Y and N679K (S protein). Low-frequency variants, together with VOCs circulating, may lead to convergence and the emergence of future lineages that may increase transmissibility, infectivity and escape vaccine-induced or natural host immunity.

Efficacy of primary series AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: Final analysis of a randomized, placebo-controlled, phase 1b/2 study in South African adults (COV005)

COVID-19 vaccine efficacy (VE) has been observed to vary against antigenically distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VoC). Here we report the final analysis of VE and safety from COV005: a phase 1b/2, multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled study of primary series AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) vaccination in South African adults aged 18-65 years. South Africa's first, second, and third waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections were respectively driven by the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 virus (wild type, WT), and SARS-CoV-2 Beta and Delta VoCs. VE against asymptomatic and symptomatic infection was 90.6% for WT, 6.7% for Beta and 77.1% for Delta. No cases of severe COVID-19 were documented ahead of unblinding. Safety was consistent with the interim analysis, with no new safety concerns identified. Notably, South Africa's Delta wave occurred ≥ 9 months after primary series vaccination, suggesting that primary series AZD1222 vaccination offers a good durability of protection, potentially due to an anamnestic response. Clinical trial identifier: CT.gov NCT04444674.

Evaluation of miniaturized Illumina DNA preparation protocols for SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequencing

The global pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has increased the demand for scalable sequencing and diagnostic methods, especially for genomic surveillance. Although next-generation sequencing has enabled large-scale genomic surveillance, the ability to sequence SARS-CoV-2 in some settings has been limited by the cost of sequencing kits and the time-consuming preparations of sequencing libraries. We compared the sequencing outcomes, cost and turn-around times obtained using the standard Illumina DNA Prep kit protocol to three modified protocols with fewer clean-up steps and different reagent volumes (full volume, half volume, one-tenth volume). We processed a single run of 47 samples under each protocol and compared the yield and mean sequence coverage. The sequencing success rate and quality for the four different reactions were as follows: the full reaction was 98.2%, the one-tenth reaction was 98.0%, the full rapid reaction was 97.5% and the half-reaction, was 97.1%. As a result, uniformity of sequence quality indicated that libraries were not affected by the change in protocol. The cost of sequencing was reduced approximately seven-fold and the time taken to prepare the library was reduced from 6.5 hours to 3 hours. The sequencing results obtained using the miniaturised volumes showed comparability to the results obtained using full volumes as described by the manufacturer. The adaptation of the protocol represents a lower-cost, streamlined approach for SARS-CoV-2 sequencing, which can be used to produce genomic data quickly and more affordably, especially in resource-constrained settings.

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 during the first four waves in Mozambique

Mozambique reported the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in March 2020 and it has since spread to all provinces in the country. To investigate the introductions and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Mozambique, 1 142 whole genome sequences sampled within Mozambique were phylogenetically analyzed against a globally representative set, reflecting the first 25 months of the epidemic. The epidemic in the country was marked by four waves of infection, the first associated with B.1 ancestral lineages, while the Beta, Delta, and Omicron Variants of Concern (VOCs) were responsible for most infections and deaths during the second, third, and fourth waves. Large-scale viral exchanges occurred during the latter three waves and were largely attributed to southern African origins. Not only did the country remain vulnerable to the introductions of new variants but these variants continued to evolve within the borders of the country. Due to the Mozambican health system already under constraint, and paucity of data in Mozambique, there is a need to continue to strengthen and support genomic surveillance in the country as VOCs and Variants of interests (VOIs) are often reported from the southern African region.

A convoluted path to the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in a resource-limited setting

Worldwide, chronic hepatitis B virus infection remains the main aetiology of hepatocellular carcinoma, while human immunodeficiency virus may hasten the evolution of hepatocellular carcinoma in those co-infected with hepatitis B virus/human immunodeficiency virus. We describe a 29-year-old female with unmonitored hepatitis B virus infection for over 5 years, human immunodeficiency virus disease on a tenofovir-based antiretroviral regimen for 11 months, who presented with a 2-week history of epistaxis and abnormal vaginal bleeding, associated with unintentional weight loss of 4 months duration. After extensive investigation, a definitive diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma was established based on histopathological assessment in the presence of a positive hepatitis B envelope antigen, mildly raised alpha feto-protein, and a non-cirrhotic liver. Periodic surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection is important, particularly in those with evidence of actively replicating hepatitis B virus for early detection and implementation of curative therapies to reduce mortality and morbidity.

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

Investment in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing in Africa over the past year has led to a major increase in the number of sequences that have been generated and used to track the pandemic on the continent, a number that now exceeds 100,000 genomes. Our results show an increase in the number of African countries that are able to sequence domestically and highlight that local sequencing enables faster turnaround times and more-regular routine surveillance. Despite limitations of low testing proportions, findings from this genomic surveillance study underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic and illuminate the distinct dispersal dynamics of variants of concern-particularly Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron-on the continent. Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve while the continent faces many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century.

Antiretroviral therapy adherence patterns, virological suppression, and emergence of drug resistance: A nested case–control study from Uganda and South Africa

Background

Relationships between distinct antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence patterns and risk of drug resistance are not well understood.

Methods

We conducted a nested case–control analysis within a longitudinal cohort study of individuals initiating efavirenz-based ART. Primary outcomes of interest, measured at 6 and 12 months after treatment initiation, were: 1) virologic suppression, 2) virologic failure with resistance, and 3) virologic failure without resistance. Our primary exposure of interest was ART adherence, measured over the 6 months before each visit with electronic pill monitors, and categorized in three ways: 1) 6 months average adherence; 2) running adherence, defined as the proportion of days with average adherence over 9 days of less than or equal to 10%, 20%, and 30%; and 3) number of 3-, 7-, and 28-day treatment gaps in the prior 6 months

Results

We analyzed data from 166 individuals (107 had virologic failure during observation and 59 had virologic suppression at 6 and 12 months). Average adherence was higher among those with virologic suppression (median 83%, IQR 58–96%) versus those with virologic failure with resistance (median 35%, IQR 20–77%, pairwise P < 0.01) and those with virologic failure without resistance (median 21%, IQR 2–54%, pairwise P < 0.01). Although treatment gaps generally predicted virologic failure ( P < 0.01), they did not differentiate failure with and without drug resistance ( P > 0.6).

Conclusions

Average adherence patterns, but not the assessed frequency of treatment gaps, differentiated failure with versus without drug resistance among individuals initiating efavirenz-based ART. Future work should explore adherence-resistance relationships for integrase inhibitor-based regimens.

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 in South Africa

Three lineages (BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3) of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant of concern predominantly drove South Africa's fourth Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) wave. We have now identified two new lineages, BA.4 and BA.5, responsible for a fifth wave of infections. The spike proteins of BA.4 and BA.5 are identical, and similar to BA.2 except for the addition of 69-70 deletion (present in the Alpha variant and the BA.1 lineage), L452R (present in the Delta variant), F486V and the wild-type amino acid at Q493. The two lineages differ only outside of the spike region. The 69-70 deletion in spike allows these lineages to be identified by the proxy marker of S-gene target failure, on the background of variants not possessing this feature. BA.4 and BA.5 have rapidly replaced BA.2, reaching more than 50% of sequenced cases in South Africa by the first week of April 2022. Using a multinomial logistic regression model, we estimated growth advantages for BA.4 and BA.5 of 0.08 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.08-0.09) and 0.10 (95% CI: 0.09-0.11) per day, respectively, over BA.2 in South Africa. The continued discovery of genetically diverse Omicron lineages points to the hypothesis that a discrete reservoir, such as human chronic infections and/or animal hosts, is potentially contributing to further evolution and dispersal of the virus.

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

Rapid Replacement of SARS-CoV-2 Variants by Delta and Subsequent Arrival of Omicron, Uganda, 2021

Genomic surveillance in Uganda showed rapid replacement of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 over time by variants, dominated by Delta. However, detection of the more transmissible Omicron variant among travelers and increasing community transmission highlight the need for near-real-time genomic surveillance and adherence to infection control measures to prevent future pandemic waves.

Comparison of SARS-CoV-2 sequencing using the ONT GridION and the Illumina MiSeq

Background

Over 4 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes have been sequenced globally in the past 2 years. This has been crucial in elucidating transmission chains within communities, the development of new diagnostic methods, vaccines, and antivirals. Although several sequencing technologies have been employed, Illumina and Oxford Nanopore remain the two most commonly used platforms. The sequence quality between these two platforms warrants a comparison of the genomes produced by the two technologies. Here, we compared the SARS-CoV-2 consensus genomes obtained from the Oxford Nanopore Technology GridION and the Illumina MiSeq for 28 sequencing runs.

Results

Our results show that the MiSeq had a significantly higher number of consensus genomes classified by Nextclade as good and mediocre compared to the GridION. The MiSeq also had a significantly higher genome coverage and mutation counts than the GridION.

Conclusion

Due to the low genome coverage, high number of indels, and sensitivity to SARS-CoV-2 viral load noted with the GridION when compared to MiSeq, we can conclude that the MiSeq is more favourable for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance, as successful genomic surveillance is dependent on high quality, near-whole consensus genomes.

Identification of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant using spike gene target failure and genotyping assays, Gauteng, South Africa, 2021

The circulation of Omicron BA.1 led to the rapid increase in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) cases in South Africa in November 2021, which warranted the use of more rapid detection methods. We, therefore, assessed the ability to detect Omicron BA.1 using genotyping assays to identify specific mutations in SARS‐CoV‐2 positive samples, Gauteng province, South Africa. The TaqPath™ COVID‐19 real‐time polymerase chain reaction assay was performed on all samples selected to identify spike gene target failure (SGTF). SARS‐CoV‐2 genotyping assays were used for the detection of del69/70 and K417N mutation. Whole‐genome sequencing was performed on a subset of genotyped samples to confirm these findings. Of the positive samples received, 11.0% (175/1589) were randomly selected to assess if SGTF and genotyping assays, that detect del69/70 and K417N mutations, could identify Omicron BA.1. We identified SGTF in 98.9% (173/175) of samples, of which 88.0% (154/175) had both the del69/70 and K417N mutation. The genotyped samples (45.7%; 80/175) that were sequenced confirmed Omicron BA.1 (97.5%; 78/80). Our data show that genotyping for the detection of the del69/70 and K417N coupled with SGTF is efficient to exclude Alpha and Beta variants and rapidly detect Omicron BA.1. However, we still require assays for the detection of unique mutations that will allow for the differentiation between other Omicron sublineages. Therefore, the use of genotyping assays to detect new dominant or emerging lineages of SARS‐CoV‐2 will be beneficial in limited‐resource settings.

Rapid epidemic expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in southern Africa

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in southern Africa has been characterized by three distinct waves. The first was associated with a mix of SARS-CoV-2 lineages, while the second and third waves were driven by the Beta (B.1.351) and Delta (B.1.617.2) variants, respectively1-3. In November 2021, genomic surveillance teams in South Africa and Botswana detected a new SARS-CoV-2 variant associated with a rapid resurgence of infections in Gauteng province, South Africa. Within three days of the first genome being uploaded, it was designated a variant of concern (Omicron, B.1.1.529) by the World Health Organization and, within three weeks, had been identified in 87 countries. The Omicron variant is exceptional for carrying over 30 mutations in the spike glycoprotein, which are predicted to influence antibody neutralization and spike function4. Here we describe the genomic profile and early transmission dynamics of Omicron, highlighting the rapid spread in regions with high levels of population immunity.

T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike cross-recognize Omicron

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) has multiple spike protein mutations1,2 that contribute to viral escape from antibody neutralization3-6 and reduce vaccine protection from infection7,8. The extent to which other components of the adaptive response such as T cells may still target Omicron and contribute to protection from severe outcomes is unknown. Here we assessed the ability of T cells to react to Omicron spike protein in participants who were vaccinated with Ad26.CoV2.S or BNT162b2, or unvaccinated convalescent COVID-19 patients (n = 70). Between 70% and 80% of the CD4+ and CD8+ T cell response to spike was maintained across study groups. Moreover, the magnitude of Omicron cross-reactive T cells was similar for Beta (B.1.351) and Delta (B.1.617.2) variants, despite Omicron harbouring considerably more mutations. In patients who were hospitalized with Omicron infections (n = 19), there were comparable T cell responses to ancestral spike, nucleocapsid and membrane proteins to those in patients hospitalized in previous waves dominated by the ancestral, Beta or Delta variants (n = 49). Thus, despite extensive mutations and reduced susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies of Omicron, the majority of T cell responses induced by vaccination or infection cross-recognize the variant. It remains to be determined whether well-preserved T cell immunity to Omicron contributes to protection from severe COVID-19 and is linked to early clinical observations from South Africa and elsewhere9-12.

Targeted Sanger sequencing to recover key mutations in SARS-CoV-2 variant genome assemblies produced by next-generation sequencing

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is adaptively evolving to ensure its persistence within human hosts. It is therefore necessary to continuously monitor the emergence and prevalence of novel variants that arise. Importantly, some mutations have been associated with both molecular diagnostic failures and reduced or abrogated next-generation sequencing (NGS) read coverage in some genomic regions. Such impacts are particularly problematic when they occur in genomic regions such as those that encode the spike (S) protein, which are crucial for identifying and tracking the prevalence and dissemination dynamics of concerning viral variants. Targeted Sanger sequencing presents a fast and cost-effective means to accurately extend the coverage of whole-genome sequences. We designed a custom set of primers to amplify a 401 bp segment of the receptor-binding domain (RBD) (between positions 22698 and 23098 relative to the Wuhan-Hu-1 reference). We then designed a Sanger sequencing wet-laboratory protocol. We applied the primer set and wet-laboratory protocol to sequence 222 samples that were missing positions with key mutations K417N, E484K, and N501Y due to poor coverage after NGS sequencing. Finally, we developed SeqPatcher, a Python-based computational tool to analyse the trace files yielded by Sanger sequencing to generate consensus sequences, or take preanalysed consensus sequences in fasta format, and merge them with their corresponding whole-genome assemblies. We successfully sequenced 153 samples of 222 (69 %) using Sanger sequencing and confirmed the occurrence of key beta variant mutations (K417N, E484K, N501Y) in the S genes of 142 of 153 (93 %) samples. Additionally, one sample had the Y508F mutation and four samples the S477N. Samples with RT-PCR Ct scores ranging from 13.85 to 37.47 (mean=25.70) could be Sanger sequenced efficiently. These results show that our method and pipeline can be used to improve the quality of whole-genome assemblies produced using NGS and can be used with any pairs of the most used NGS and Sanger sequencing platforms.

Experimental validation of taxon-specific mini-barcode primers for metabarcoding of zooplankton

Metabarcoding to determine the species composition and diversity of marine zooplankton communities is a fast-developing field in which the standardization of methods is yet to be fully achieved. The selection of genetic markers and primer choice are particularly important because they substantially influence species detection rates and accuracy. Validation is therefore an important step in the design of metabarcoding protocols. We developed taxon-specific mini-barcode primers for the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene region and used an experimental approach to test species detection rates and primer accuracy of the newly designed primers for prawns, shrimps and crabs and published primers for marine lobsters and fish. Artificially assembled mock communities (with known species ratios) and unsorted coastal tow-net zooplankton samples were sequenced and the detected species were compared with those seeded in mock communities to test detection rates. Taxon-specific primers increased detection rates of target taxa compared with a universal primer set. Primer cocktails (multiple primer sets) significantly increased species detection rates compared with single primer pairs and could detect up to 100% of underrepresented target taxa in mock communities. Taxon-specific primers recovered fewer false-positive or false-negative results than the universal primer. The methods used to design taxon-specific mini-barcodes and the experimental mock community validation protocols shown here can easily be applied to studies on other groups and will allow for a level of standardization among studies undertaken in different ecosystems or geographic locations.

Data of macroinvertebrates assemblage across different stretches of an urban Palmiet River in Durban, South Africa

Urban rivers have been overlooked as they are regarded as unnatural with poor ecological conditions to support aquatic life. This dataset presents the abundance and taxa richness of macroinvertebrates collected in an urban Palmiet River, which showed highly variable stretches with respect to water quality and physical habitat availability. A YSI 556 MPS handheld multiparameter instrument was used to measure physical variables of the water, whereas samples were taken using sampling bottles and kept in the fridge prior to nutrient analysis. Habitat assessment was carried out following the integrated habitat assessment score (IHAS) protocol. Macroinvertebrates were collected using modified SASS5 protocol, where stone, vegetation, and gravel sand, and mud biotopes were sampled. Macroinvertebrates were identified to family levels, and abundance and taxa richness were calculated. This data affirms the capacity of urban rivers to harbor aquatic biota and to self-purify along the longitudinal gradient. The data further attest that the response of urban rivers to anthropogenic activities does not differ from natural streams, and the assemblage of macroinvertebrates is driven by water quality and physical habitat. Moreover, the role played by anthropogenic litter in the absence of natural habitat is stressed. Lastly, this data can guide urban ecologists when designing studies for highly variable urban river systems as it illustrates the dynamics of urban ecosystems and their potential to harbor aquatic biota.

A year of genomic surveillance reveals how the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic unfolded in Africa

The progression of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic in Africa has so far been heterogeneous, and the full impact is not yet well understood. In this study, we describe the genomic epidemiology using a dataset of 8746 genomes from 33 African countries and two overseas territories. We show that the epidemics in most countries were initiated by importations predominantly from Europe, which diminished after the early introduction of international travel restrictions. As the pandemic progressed, ongoing transmission in many countries and increasing mobility led to the emergence and spread within the continent of many variants of concern and interest, such as B.1.351, B.1.525, A.23.1, and C.1.1. Although distorted by low sampling numbers and blind spots, the findings highlight that Africa must not be left behind in the global pandemic response, otherwise it could become a source for new variants.

Tracking the international spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineages B.1.1.7 and B.1.351/501Y-V2 with grinch

Late in 2020, two genetically-distinct clusters of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with mutations of biological concern were reported, one in the United Kingdom and one in South Africa. Using a combination of data from routine surveillance, genomic sequencing and international travel we track the international dispersal of lineages B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 (variant 501Y-V2). We account for potential biases in genomic surveillance efforts by including passenger volumes from location of where the lineage was first reported, London and South Africa respectively. Using the software tool grinch (global report investigating novel coronavirus haplotypes), we track the international spread of lineages of concern with automated daily reports, Further, we have built a custom tracking website (cov-lineages.org/global_report.html) which hosts this daily report and will continue to include novel SARS-CoV-2 lineages of concern as they are detected.

Efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Covid-19 Vaccine against the B.1.351 Variant

BACKGROUND

Assessment of the safety and efficacy of vaccines against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in different populations is essential, as is investigation of the efficacy of the vaccines against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, including the B.1.351 (501Y.V2) variant first identified in South Africa.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter, double-blind, randomized, controlled trial to assess the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) in people not infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in South Africa. Participants 18 to less than 65 years of age were assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive two doses of vaccine containing 5×1010 viral particles or placebo (0.9% sodium chloride solution) 21 to 35 days apart. Serum samples obtained from 25 participants after the second dose were tested by pseudovirus and live-virus neutralization assays against the original D614G virus and the B.1.351 variant. The primary end points were safety and efficacy of the vaccine against laboratory-confirmed symptomatic coronavirus 2019 illness (Covid-19) more than 14 days after the second dose.

RESULTS

Between June 24 and November 9, 2020, we enrolled 2026 HIV-negative adults (median age, 30 years); 1010 and 1011 participants received at least one dose of placebo or vaccine, respectively. Both the pseudovirus and the live-virus neutralization assays showed greater resistance to the B.1.351 variant in serum samples obtained from vaccine recipients than in samples from placebo recipients. In the primary end-point analysis, mild-to-moderate Covid-19 developed in 23 of 717 placebo recipients (3.2%) and in 19 of 750 vaccine recipients (2.5%), for an efficacy of 21.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], -49.9 to 59.8). Among the 42 participants with Covid-19, 39 cases (95.1% of 41 with sequencing data) were caused by the B.1.351 variant; vaccine efficacy against this variant, analyzed as a secondary end point, was 10.4% (95% CI, -76.8 to 54.8). The incidence of serious adverse events was balanced between the vaccine and placebo groups.

CONCLUSIONS

A two-dose regimen of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine did not show protection against mild-to-moderate Covid-19 due to the B.1.351 variant. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04444674; Pan African Clinical Trials Registry number, PACTR202006922165132).

Tracking the international spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineages B.1.1.7 and B.1.351/501Y-V2

Late in 2020, two genetically-distinct clusters of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with mutations of biological concern were reported, one in the United Kingdom and one in South Africa. Using a combination of data from routine surveillance, genomic sequencing and international travel we track the international dispersal of lineages B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 (variant 501Y-V2). We account for potential biases in genomic surveillance efforts by including passenger volumes from location of where the lineage was first reported, London and South Africa respectively. Using the software tool grinch (global report investigating novel coronavirus haplotypes), we track the international spread of lineages of concern with automated daily reports, Further, we have built a custom tracking website (cov-lineages.org/global_report.html) which hosts this daily report and will continue to include novel SARS-CoV-2 lineages of concern as they are detected.

Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 from neutralization by convalescent plasma

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) have arisen independently at multiple locations^1,2 and may reduce the efficacy of current vaccines that target the spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2³. Here, using a live-virus neutralization assay, we compared the neutralization of a non-VOC variant with the 501Y.V2 VOC (also known as B.1.351) using plasma collected from adults who were hospitalized with COVID-19 during the two waves of infection in South Africa, the second wave of which was dominated by infections with the 501Y.V2 variant. Sequencing demonstrated that infections of plasma donors from the first wave were with viruses that did not contain the mutations associated with 501Y.V2, except for one infection that contained the E484K substitution in the receptor-binding domain. The 501Y.V2 virus variant was effectively neutralized by plasma from individuals who were infected during the second wave. The first-wave virus variant was effectively neutralized by plasma from first-wave infections. However, the 501Y.V2 variant was poorly cross-neutralized by plasma from individuals with first-wave infections; the efficacy was reduced by 15.1-fold relative to neutralization of 501Y.V2 by plasma from individuals infected in the second wave. By contrast, cross-neutralization of first-wave virus variants using plasma from individuals with second-wave infections was more effective, showing only a 2.3-fold decrease relative to neutralization of first-wave virus variants by plasma from individuals infected in the first wave. Although we tested only one plasma sample from an individual infected with a SARS-CoV-2 variant with only the E484K substitution, this plasma sample potently neutralized both variants. The observed effective neutralization of first-wave virus by plasma from individuals infected with 501Y.V2 provides preliminary evidence that vaccines based on VOC sequences could retain activity against other circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages.

Early transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa: An epidemiological and phylogenetic report

OBJECTIVES

The Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA) was formed to investigate the introduction and understand the early transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in South-Africa.

DESIGN

This paper presents the first results from this group, which is a molecular epidemiological study of the first 21 SARS-CoV-2 whole genomes sampled in the first port of entry - KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) - during the first month of the epidemic. By combining this with calculations of the effective reproduction number (R), it aimed to shed light on the patterns of infections in South Africa.

RESULTS

Two of the largest provinces - Gauteng and KZN - had a slow growth rate for the number of detected cases, while the epidemic spread faster in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape. The estimates of transmission potential suggested a decrease towards R = 1 since the first cases and deaths, but a subsequent estimated R average of 1.39 between 6-18 May 2020. It was also demonstrated that early transmission in KZN was associated with multiple international introductions and dominated by lineages B1 and B. Evidence for locally acquired infections in a hospital in Durban within the first month of the epidemic was also provided.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa was very heterogeneous in its spatial dimension, with many distinct introductions of SARS-CoV2 in KZN and evidence of nosocomial transmission, which inflated early mortality in KZN. The epidemic at the local level was still developing and NGS-SA aimed to clarify the dynamics in South Africa and devise the most effective measures as the outbreak evolved.

Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 within-host diversity in two major hospital outbreaks in South Africa

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes acute, highly transmissible respiratory infection in humans and a wide range of animal species. Its rapid global spread has resulted in a major public health emergency, necessitating commensurately rapid research to improve control strategies. In particular, the ability to effectively retrace transmission chains in outbreaks remains a major challenge, partly due to our limited understanding of the virus' underlying evolutionary dynamics within and between hosts. We used high-throughput sequencing whole-genome data coupled with bottleneck analysis to retrace the pathways of viral transmission in two nosocomial outbreaks that were previously characterised by epidemiological and phylogenetic methods. Additionally, we assessed the mutational landscape, selection pressures, and diversity at the within-host level for both outbreaks. Our findings show evidence of within-host selection and transmission of variants between samples. Both bottleneck and diversity analyses highlight within-host and consensus-level variants shared by putative source-recipient pairs in both outbreaks, suggesting that certain within-host variants in these outbreaks may have been transmitted upon infection rather than arising de novo independently within multiple hosts. Overall, our findings demonstrate the utility of combining within-host diversity and bottleneck estimations for elucidating transmission events in SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, provide insight into the maintenance of viral genetic diversity, provide a list of candidate targets of positive selection for further investigation, and demonstrate that within-host variants can be transferred between patients. Together these results will help in developing strategies to understand the nature of transmission events and curtail the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

High Resolution analysis of Transmission Dynamics of Sars-Cov-2 in Two Major Hospital Outbreaks in South Africa Leveraging Intrahost Diversity

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes acute, highly transmissible respiratory infection in both humans and wide range of animal species. Its rapid spread globally and devasting effects have resulted into a major public health emergency prompting the need for methodological interventions to understand and control its spread. In particular, The ability to effectively retrace its transmission pathways in outbreaks remains a major challenge. This is further exacerbated by our limited understanding of its underlying evolutionary mechanism. Using NGS whole-genome data, we determined whether inter- and intra-host diversity coupled with bottleneck analysis can retrace the pathway of viral transmission in two epidemiologically well characterised nosocomial outbreaks in healthcare settings supported by phylogenetic analysis. Additionally, we assessed the mutational landscape, selection pressure and diversity of the identified variants. Our findings showed evidence of intrahost variant transmission and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 after infection These observations were consistent with the results from the bottleneck analysis suggesting that certain intrahost variants in this study could have been transmitted to recipients. In both outbreaks, we observed iSNVs and SNVs shared by putative source-recipients pairs. Majority of the observed iSNVs were positioned in the S and ORF1ab region. AG, CT and TC nucleotide changes were enriched across SARS-COV-2 genome. Moreover, SARS-COV-2 genome had limited diversity in some loci while being highly conserved in others. Overall, Our findings show that the synergistic effect of combining withinhost diversity and bottleneck estimations greatly enhances resolution of transmission events in Sars-Cov-2 outbreaks. They also provide insight into the genome diversity suggesting purifying selection may be involved in the transmission. Together these results will help in developing strategies to elucidate transmission events and curtail the spread of Sars-Cov-2.

A packaged intervention to improve viral load monitoring within a deeply rural health district of South Africa

BACKGROUND

The KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province of South Africa has the highest prevalence of HIV infection in the world. Viral load (VL) testing is a crucial tool for clinical and programmatic monitoring. Within uMkhanyakude district, VL suppression rates were 91% among patients with VL data; however, VL performance rates averaged only 38·7%. The objective of this study was to determine if enhanced clinic processes and community outreach could improve VL monitoring within this district.

METHODS

A packaged intervention was implemented at three rural clinics in the setting of the KZN HIV AIDS Drug Resistance Surveillance Study. This included file hygiene, outreach, a VL register and documentation revisions. Chart audits were used to assess fidelity. Outcome measures included percentage VL performed and suppressed. Each rural clinic was matched with a peri-urban clinic for comparison before and after the start of each phase of the intervention. Monthly sample proportions were modelled using quasi-likelihood regression methods for over-dispersed binomial data.

RESULTS

Mkuze and Jozini clinics increased VL performance overall from 33·9% and 35·3% to 75·8% and 72·4%, respectively which was significantly greater than the increases in the comparison clinics (RR 1·86 and 1·68, p < 0·01). VL suppression rates similarly increased overall by 39·3% and 36·2% (RR 1·84 and 1·70, p < 0·01). The Chart Intervention phase showed significant increases in fidelity 16 months after implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

The packaged intervention improved VL performance and suppression rates overall but was significant in Mkuze and Jozini. Larger sustained efforts will be needed to have a similar impact throughout the province.

Whole Genome Sequencing of SARS-CoV-2: Adapting Illumina Protocols for Quick and Accurate Outbreak Investigation during a Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread very fast around the world. A few days after the first detected case in South Africa, an infection started in a large hospital outbreak in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). Phylogenetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes can be used to trace the path of transmission within a hospital. It can also identify the source of the outbreak and provide lessons to improve infection prevention and control strategies. This manuscript outlines the obstacles encountered in order to genotype SARS-CoV-2 in near-real time during an urgent outbreak investigation. This included problems with the length of the original genotyping protocol, unavailability of reagents, and sample degradation and storage. Despite this, three different library preparation methods for Illumina sequencing were set up, and the hands-on library preparation time was decreased from twelve to three hours, which enabled the outbreak investigation to be completed in just a few weeks. Furthermore, the new protocols increased the success rate of sequencing whole viral genomes. A simple bioinformatics workflow for the assembly of high-quality genomes in near-real time was also fine-tuned. In order to allow other laboratories to learn from our experience, all of the library preparation and bioinformatics protocols are publicly available at protocols.io and distributed to other laboratories of the Network for Genomics Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA) consortium.

Early transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa: An epidemiological and phylogenetic report

Background

The emergence of a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in December 2019, progressed to become a world pandemic in a few months and reached South Africa at the beginning of March. To investigate introduction and understand the early transmission dynamics of the virus, we formed the South African Network for Genomics Surveillance of COVID (SANGS_COVID), a network of ten government and university laboratories. Here, we present the first results of this effort, which is a molecular epidemiological study of the first twenty-one SARS-CoV-2 whole genomes sampled in the first port of entry, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), during the first month of the epidemic. By combining this with calculations of the effective reproduction number (R), we aim to shed light on the patterns of infections that define the epidemic in South Africa.

Methods

R was calculated using positive cases and deaths from reports provided by the four major provinces. Molecular epidemiology investigation involved sequencing viral genomes from patients in KZN using ARCTIC protocols and assembling whole genomes using meticulous alignment methods. Phylogenetic analysis was performed using maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian trees, lineage classification and molecular clock calculations.

Findings

The epidemic in South Africa has been very heterogeneous. Two of the largest provinces, Gauteng, home of the two large metropolis Johannesburg and Pretoria, and KwaZulu-Natal, home of the third largest city in the country Durban, had a slow growth rate on the number of detected cases. Whereas, Western Cape, home of Cape Town, and the Eastern Cape provinces the epidemic is spreading fast. Our estimates of transmission potential for South Africa suggest a decreasing transmission potential towards R=1 since the first cases and deaths have been reported. However, between 06 May and 18 May 2020, we estimate that R was on average 1.39 (1.04 - 2.15, 95% CI). We also demonstrate that early transmission in KZN, and most probably in all main regions of SA, was associated with multiple international introductions and dominated by lineages B1 and B. The study also provides evidence for locally acquired infections in a hospital in Durban within the first month of the epidemic, which inflated early mortality in KZN.

Interpretation

This first report of SANGS_COVID consortium focuses on understanding the epidemic heterogeneity and introduction of SARS-CoV-2 strains in the first month of the epidemic in South Africa. The early introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in KZN included caused a localized outbreak in a hospital, provides potential explanations for the initially high death rates in the province. The current high rate of transmission of COVID-19 in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape highlights the crucial need to strength local genomic surveillance in South Africa.

Funding

UKZN Flagship Program entitled: Afrocentric Precision Approach to Control Health Epidemic, by a research Flagship grant from the South African Medical Research Council (MRC-RFA-UFSP-01-2013/UKZN HIVEPI, by the the Technology Innovation Agency and the the Department of Science and Innovation and by National Human Genome Re- search Institute of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number U24HG006941. H3ABioNet is an initiative of the Human Health and Heredity in Africa Consortium (H3Africa).

Comparative analyses of published cost effectiveness models highlight critical considerations which are useful to inform development of new models

Background: Comparative analyses of published cost effectiveness models provide useful insights into critical issues to inform the development of new cost effectiveness models in the same disease area.Objective: The purpose of this study was to describe a comparative analysis of cost-effectiveness models and highlight the importance of such work in informing development of new models. This research uses genotypic antiretroviral resistance testing after first line treatment failure for Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) as an example.Method: A literature search was performed, and published cost effectiveness models were selected according to predetermined eligibility criteria. A comprehensive comparative analysis was undertaken for all aspects of the models.Results: Five published models were compared, and several critical issues were identified for consideration when developing a new model. These include the comparator, time horizon and scope of the model. In addition, the composite effect of drug resistance prevalence, antiretroviral therapy efficacy, test performance and the proportion of patients switching to second-line ART potentially have a measurable effect on model results. When considering CD4 count and viral load, dichotomizing patients according to higher cost and lower quality of life (AIDS) versus lower cost and higher quality of life (non-AIDS) status will potentially capture differences between resistance testing and other strategies, which could be confirmed by cross-validation/convergent validation. A quality adjusted life year is an essential outcome which should be explicitly explored in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, where possible.Conclusions: Using an example of GART for HIV, this study demonstrates comparative analysis of previously published cost effectiveness models yields critical information which can be used to inform the structure and specifications of new models.

Targeting the third '90': introducing the viral load champion

Objective: To move closer to achieving the third target of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals, we prospectively implemented a viral load (VL) champion (VLC) program aimed at enhancing VL monitoring and recognition of treatment failure. Design: Three clinics in eThekwini, Kwa-Zulu Natal (low-, medium- and high-volume, encompassing 9184 patients overall) were each assigned a VLC. We employed a descriptive analysis (chart audit) to compare the pre-intervention period to a 1-year post-intervention period. The number of patients with a VL test performed 6 and 12 months after the intervention was calculated as a proportion of VL tests due at those time points (VL completion rate). Results: The pre-implementation VL completion rate at the three sites was respectively 68% (140/205 patients), 54% (84/155 patients) and 64% (323/504 patients), and the 6-month post-implementation completion rate increased to 83% (995/1194 patients), 90% (793/878 patients) and 99% (3101/3124 patients) (P < 0.0001 for each site). VL completion rates remained significantly higher at 12 months post-implementation, with an average cumulative VL completion rate of >90% across all facilities. Conclusion: We demonstrate a successful, multifaceted, quality-improvement intervention centered on a clinic-level VLC which, taken to scale, has important implications for attaining the third UNAIDS 90-90-90 target.

A Perinatal Database Management System

Obstetric services have long recognized the need for ongoing evaluation of their experiences. Manual »departmental statistics« systems sufficed, but with the advent of more sophisticated care, perinatal re-gionalization and increased research activity, the potential usefulness of computer technology became obvious. At Cleveland Metropolitan General Hospital, a laboratory computer based patient information file system was designed and implemented beginning in 1974. Over the succeeding six years, data have been collected and stored for all delivered pregnancies. There are now over 61,000 files for more than 20,000 consecutively delivered patients. The system provides over 40,000 clinical reports per year. However, the use of a file-oriented system has limited our ability to respond to specific research queries. The application of a relational database management system, INGRES, for perinatal information is reported here. Examples of its use for efficiently »answering questions« are presented, as are guidelines for the development and implementation of computer-based perinatal record systems.

HIV-1 full-genome phylogenetics of generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: impact of missing nucleotide characters in next-generation sequences

To characterize HIV-1 transmission dynamics in regions where the burden of HIV-1 is greatest, the “Phylogenetics and Networks for Generalised HIV Epidemics in Africa” consortium (PANGEA-HIV) is sequencing full-genome viral isolates from across sub-Saharan Africa. We report the first 3,985 PANGEA-HIV consensus sequences from four cohort sites (Rakai Community Cohort Study, n = 2,833; MRC/UVRI Uganda, n = 701; Mochudi Prevention Project, n = 359; Africa Health Research Institute Resistance Cohort, n = 92). Next-generation sequencing success rates varied: more than 80% of the viral genome from the gag to the nef genes could be determined for all sequences from South Africa, 75% of sequences from Mochudi, 60% of sequences from MRC/UVRI Uganda, and 22% of sequences from Rakai. Partial sequencing failure was primarily associated with low viral load, increased for amplicons closer to the 3′ end of the genome, was not associated with subtype diversity except HIV-1 subtype D, and remained significantly associated with sampling location after controlling for other factors. We assessed the impact of the missing data patterns in PANGEA-HIV sequences on phylogeny reconstruction in simulations. We found a threshold in terms of taxon sampling below which the patchy distribution of missing characters in next-generation sequences (NGS) has an excess negative impact on the accuracy of HIV-1 phylogeny reconstruction, which is attributable to tree reconstruction artifacts that accumulate when branches in viral trees are long. The large number of PANGEA-HIV sequences provides unprecedented opportunities for evaluating HIV-1 transmission dynamics across sub-Saharan Africa and identifying prevention opportunities. Molecular epidemiological analyses of these data must proceed cautiously because sequence sampling remains below the identified threshold and a considerable negative impact of missing characters on phylogeny reconstruction is expected.

Increasing HIV-1 Drug Resistance Between 2010 and 2012 in Adults Participating in Population-Based HIV Surveillance in Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

As more human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected patients access combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), higher proportions of newly infected patients may be infected with drug-resistant viruses. Regular surveillance of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) is required in southern Africa where high rates of transmission persist despite rapid expansion of ART. Dried blood spot samples from cART-naive participants from two rounds of an annual population-based HIV surveillance program in rural KwaZulu-Natal were tested for HIV RNA, and samples with HIV RNA >10,000 copies/ml were genotyped for drug resistance. The 2009 surveillance of drug resistance mutation (SDRM) list was used for drug resistance interpretation. The data were added to previously published data from the same program, and the χ² test for trend was used to test for trend in estimated prevalence of any TDR. Seven hundred and one participants' data were analyzed: 67 (2010), 381 (2011), and 253 (2012). No TDR was detected in 2010. Years 2011 and 2012 had 18 participants with SDRMs 4.7% and 7.1%, respectively (p = .02, χ² test for trend). The nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor mutation, K103N, was the most common mutation, occurring in 27 (3.8%) of the participants, while nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) SDRMs were detected in 10 (1.4%) of the participants, of whom eight had only a single NRTI SDRM. The increase in levels of drug resistance observed in this population could be a signal of increasing transmission of drug-resistant HIV. Thus, continued surveillance is critical to inform public health policies around HIV treatment and prevention.

HIV drug resistance levels in adults failing first-line antiretroviral therapy in an urban and a rural setting in South Africa

OBJECTIVES

Urban and rural HIV treatment programmes face different challenges in the long-term management of patients. There are few studies comparing drug resistance profiles in patients accessing treatment through these programmes. The aim of this study was to perform such a comparison.

METHODS

HIV drug resistance data and associated treatment and monitoring information for adult patients failing first-line therapy in an urban and a rural programme were collected. Data were curated and managed in SATuRN RegaDB before statistical analysis using Microsoft Excel 2013 and stata Ver14, in which clinical parameters, resistance profiles and predicted treatment responses were compared.

RESULTS

Data for 595 patients were analysed: 492 patients from a rural setting and 103 patients from an urban setting. The urban group had lower CD4 counts at treatment initiation than the rural group (98 vs. 126 cells/μL, respectively; P = 0.05), had more viral load measurements performed per year (median 3 vs. 1.4, respectively; P < 0.01) and were more likely to have no drug resistance mutations detected (35.9% vs. 11.2%, respectively; P < 0.01). Patients in the rural group were more likely to have been on first-line treatment for a longer period, to have failed for longer, and to have thymidine analogue mutations. Notwithstanding these differences, the two groups had comparable predicted responses to the standard second-line regimen, based on the genotypic susceptibility score. Mutations accumulated in a sigmoidal fashion over failure duration.

CONCLUSIONS

The frequency and patterns of drug resistance, as well the intensity of virological monitoring, in adults with first-line therapy failure differed between the urban and rural sites. Despite these differences, based on the genotypic susceptibility scores, the majority of patients across the two sites would be expected to respond well to the standard second-line regimen.