Evaluation of future estuarine floods in a sea level rise context

Increased oyster aquaculture in the Sado Estuary (Portugal): How to ensure ecosystem sustainability?

Aquaculture is one of the fastest growing sectors in the world. However, this may come with a cost, as increasing aquatic production is likely to impose changes in the environment. To ensure ecosystem sustainability, it is essential to think on this larger scale. This study aims to use the Delft3D model suite to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity for bivalve production in the Sado Estuary (Portugal), under present and future conditions (2050). Scenarios for increased oyster production resulted in reductions of chlorophyll a associated with increased nutrient concentrations. In the most extreme production scenario, which considered an increase of 100 ha in production area, a predicted decrease of 90 % in phytoplankton biomass was observed. Climate change (CC) was incorporated as an increase in sea level and water temperature, as well as a reduction in river flow. Under present oyster production conditions, CC revealed contrasting patterns, i.e. an increase in chlorophyll a concentrations and a reduction in nutrients. These results suggest that CC has a positive effect in counteracting the impacts of increased oyster production, however further research is necessary. All scenarios point to reduced dissolved oxygen concentrations, highlighting the need to monitor this parameter. Given the difficulty in defining what are unacceptable impacts to the ecosystem it would be prudent to include a socio-ecological framework in the future, in order to integrate ecosystem services and the perception of local stakeholders.

Assessing the effectiveness of management measures in the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon, Portugal

The Ria Formosa is an important transitional and coastal lagoon on the south coast of Portugal that provides valuable ecosystem services. The lagoon is a protected area under national and international conventions. There is a great potential for Blue Growth sectors, such as aquaculture and coastal tourism, but these rely on good water quality. European environmental legislation, such as the Water Framework Directive, requires member states, such as Portugal to implement management measures if a surface water body is not of good ecological status. This work addresses the effectiveness of management measures, such as wastewater treatment plant implementation and dredging, on the water quality of the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon system. This is an important social-ecological issue, since management measures can be very expensive. The ecological status of Ria Formosa was evaluated, according to the physico-chemical and biological quality elements of the Water Framework Directive. The main indicators were the physico-chemical quality elements of nutrient and oxygen condition, and the biological quality element chlorophyll a, as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, under the Water Framework Directive. The data for these quality elements from the Ria Formosa were analyzed for consistency with the classification for the Water Framework Directive water bodies. The data after the implementation of management measures was compared with historical data to evaluate if these measures had been effective. The relation between nutrient pressures, meteorological and hydrological conditions was addressed, especially rainfall and runoff. Results showed a decrease in nutrient concentration after the management interventions, despite the increase of population and intensifying agriculture in the catchment. The Ecological Status is spatially variable with an overall moderate status, indicating the need for further management measures. There is a significant reduction in nutrient pressure on the lagoon during drought years. This indicates that climate change may alter the structure and function of the lagoon in the future.