Machine learning prediction of connectivity, biodiversity and resilience in the Coral Triangle

The role of mesoscale-driven connectivity patterns in coral recovery around Moorea and Tahiti, French Polynesia

Coral reefs are declining due to anthropogenic warming. Nonetheless, some have recovered quickly from repeated bleaching events. Coral recovery depends on adaptation capabilities, fishing pressure, overall number of stressors, reef conditions before the event, and degree of connectivity. Coral reefs that are connected to many others can receive viable larvae and regain coverage faster. Around Moorea and Tahiti, within the Society Islands of French Polynesia, coral cover has regained its previous levels rapidly, despite several mass bleaching events over the past three decades. Here it is explored whether the connectivity with distant reefs may support such recovery by modeling the transport of coral larvae around the islands over 28 years. Ocean currents enable connectivity with the Tuamotu Islands, ~ 250 km to the northeast, that act as sources to Moorea and Tahiti for pelagic larval durations of three weeks or longer. The circulation around Moorea and Tahiti is very dynamic; mesoscale eddies can also halt the connectivity with the Tuamotu Islands and sporadically transport larvae from reefs to the west and southeast instead. With many undisturbed coral reefs within a 300 km radius and strong mesoscale variability, a dynamic, long-range connectivity may explain the recovery of reefs around Moorea and Tahiti.

Data-driven dimensionality reduction and causal inference for spatiotemporal climate fields

We propose a data-driven framework to describe spatiotemporal climate variability in terms of a few entities and their causal linkages. Given a high-dimensional climate field, the methodology first reduces its dimensionality into a set of regionally constrained patterns. Causal relations among such patterns are then inferred in the interventional sense through the fluctuation-response formalism. To distinguish between true and spurious responses, we propose an analytical null model for the fluctuation-dissipation relation, therefore allowing us for uncertainty estimation at a given confidence level. We showcase the methodology on the sea surface temperature field from a state-of-the-art climate model. The usefulness of the proposed framework for spatiotemporal climate data is demonstrated in several ways. First, we focus on the correct identification of known causal relations across tropical basins. Second, we show how the methodology allows us to visualize the cumulative response of the whole system to climate variability in a few selected regions. Finally, each pattern is ranked in terms of its causal strength, quantifying its relative ability to influence the system's dynamics. We argue that the methodology allows us to explore and characterize causal relations in spatiotemporal fields in a rigorous and interpretable way.

Past disturbances and local conditions influence the recovery rates of coral reefs

Corals are being increasingly subjected to marine heatwaves. Theory suggests that increasing the intensity of disturbances reduces recovery rates, which inspired us to examine the recovery rates of coral cover following marine heatwaves, cyclones, and other disturbances at 1921 study sites, in 58 countries and three oceans, from 1977 to 2020. In the Atlantic Ocean, coral cover has decreased fourfold since the 1970s, and recovery rates following disturbances have been relatively slow, except in the Antilles. By contrast, reefs in the Pacific and Indian Oceans have maintained coral cover and recovery rates over time. There were positive relationships between rates of coral recovery and prior cyclone and heatwave frequency, and negative relationships between rates of coral recovery and macroalgae cover and distance to shore. A recent increase in the variance in recovery rates in some ecoregions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans suggests that some reefs in those ecoregions may be approaching a phase shift. While marine heatwaves are increasing in intensity and frequency, our results suggest that regional and local conditions influence coral recovery rates, and therefore, effective local management efforts can help reefs recover from disturbances.