Prediction of robust scientific facts from literature

Limited diffusion of scientific knowledge forecasts collapse

Market bubbles emerge when asset prices are driven unsustainably higher than asset values, and shifts in belief burst them. We demonstrate an analogous phenomenon in the case of biomedical knowledge, when promising research receives inflated attention. We introduce a diffusion index that quantifies whether research areas have been amplified within social and scientific bubbles, or have diffused and become evaluated more broadly. We illustrate the utility of our diffusion approach in tracking the trajectories of cardiac stem cell research (a bubble that collapsed) and cancer immunotherapy (which showed sustained growth). We then trace the diffusion of 28,504 subfields in biomedicine comprising nearly 1.9 M papers and more than 80 M citations to demonstrate that limited diffusion of biomedical knowledge anticipates abrupt decreases in popularity. Our analysis emphasizes that restricted diffusion, implying a socio-epistemic bubble, leads to dramatic collapses in relevance and attention accorded to scientific knowledge.

Quantifying the use and potential benefits of artificial intelligence in scientific research

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to reshape almost every line of work. Despite enormous efforts devoted to understanding AI's economic impacts, we lack a systematic understanding of the benefits to scientific research associated with the use of AI. Here we develop a measurement framework to estimate the direct use of AI and associated benefits in science. We find that the use and benefits of AI appear widespread throughout the sciences, growing especially rapidly since 2015. However, there is a substantial gap between AI education and its application in research, highlighting a misalignment between AI expertise supply and demand. Our analysis also reveals demographic disparities, with disciplines with higher proportions of women or Black scientists reaping fewer benefits from AI, potentially exacerbating existing inequalities in science. These findings have implications for the equity and sustainability of the research enterprise, especially as the integration of AI with science continues to deepen.

Accelerating science with human-aware artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) models trained on published scientific findings have been used to invent valuable materials and targeted therapies, but they typically ignore the human scientists who continually alter the landscape of discovery. Here we show that incorporating the distribution of human expertise by training unsupervised models on simulated inferences that are cognitively accessible to experts dramatically improves (by up to 400%) AI prediction of future discoveries beyond models focused on research content alone, especially when relevant literature is sparse. These models succeed by predicting human predictions and the scientists who will make them. By tuning human-aware AI to avoid the crowd, we can generate scientifically promising 'alien' hypotheses unlikely to be imagined or pursued without intervention until the distant future, which hold promise to punctuate scientific advance beyond questions currently pursued. By accelerating human discovery or probing its blind spots, human-aware AI enables us to move towards and beyond the contemporary scientific frontier.