UK's fruit and vegetable supply increasingly dependent on imports from climate vulnerable producing countries

Environmental, social and economic perceptions of local food production: a case study of Aberdeenshire farmers' markets

Sustainable food systems are an important aspect of curbing the impacts of climate change and meeting targets of global food security. It is increasingly recognised that a wider suite of indicators is required to assess sustainability beyond the traditional environmental factors. This study focuses on Aberdeenshire, an atypical area of the UK where soils, climate and topography are not conducive to diverse or large-scale fruit and vegetable production, which in other areas, are a dominant feature of farmers' markets. Nevertheless, Aberdeenshire needs economic diversification to offset some of the impacts of the decline in the oil and gas industry. Face-to-face questionnaires were conducted across Aberdeenshire farmers' markets in summer 2022 to assess buyer and seller perceptions of the environmental, social and economic benefits of local food products. There was a positive attitude to local products with the majority of buyers perceiving the quality, nutrition, organic status and use of sustainable farming practices to be high. Conversely, the main products bought, baked goods and meat, are associated with negative impacts on the environment and/or human health. We discuss why, despite these shortfalls, farmers' markets provide a valuable opportunity to distribute and promote high quality wares to support the local economy.

Potential for positive biodiversity outcomes under diet-driven land use change in Great Britain

Background

A shift toward human diets that include more fruit and vegetables, and less meat is a potential pathway to improve public health and reduce food system-related greenhouse gas emissions. Associated changes in land use could include conversion of grazing land into horticulture, which makes more efficient use of land per unit of dietary energy and frees-up land for other uses.

Methods

Here we use Great Britain as a case study to estimate potential impacts on biodiversity from converting grazing land to a mixture of horticulture and natural land covers by fitting species distribution models for over 800 species, including pollinating insects and species of conservation priority.

Results

Across several land use scenarios that consider the current ratio of domestic fruit and vegetable production to imports, our statistical models suggest a potential for gains to biodiversity, including a tendency for more species to gain habitable area than to lose habitable area. Moreover, the models suggest that climate change impacts on biodiversity could be mitigated to a degree by land use changes associated with dietary shifts.

Conclusions

Our analysis demonstrates that options exist for changing agricultural land uses in a way that can generate win-win-win outcomes for biodiversity, adaptation to climate change and public health.

Fruit and vegetable consumption as a preventative strategy for non-communicable diseases

A high intake of fruit and vegetables (FV) has consistently been associated with a reduced risk of a number of non-communicable diseases. This evidence base is largely from prospective cohort studies, with meta-analyses demonstrating an association between increased FV intake and reduced risk of both CHD and stroke, although the evidence is less certain for cancer and diabetes. Controlled intervention trials examining either clinical or intermediate risk factor endpoints are more scarce. Therefore, evidence that FV consumption reduces the risk of disease is so far largely confined to observational epidemiology, which is hampered by some methodological uncertainties. Although increased FV intake is promoted across all dietary guidelines, national surveys confirm that dietary intakes are suboptimal and are not increasing over time. A range of barriers to increasing FV intake exist, including economic, physical and behavioural barriers that must be considered when exploring potential opportunities to change this, considering the feasibility of different approaches to encourage increased FV consumption. Such interventions must include consideration of context, for example, challenges and uncertainties which exist with the whole food system.

Meeting report: plant-rich dietary patterns and health

Dietary patterns (DP) rich in plant foods are associated with improved health and reduced non-communicable disease risk. In October 2021, the Nutrition Society hosted a member-led conference, held online over 2 half days, exploring the latest research findings examining plant-rich DP and health. The aim of the present paper is to summarise the content of the conference and synopses of the individual speaker presentations are included. Topics included epidemiological analysis of plant-rich DP and health outcomes, the effects of dietary interventions which have increased fruit and vegetable (FV) intake on a range of health outcomes, how adherence to plant-rich DP is assessed, the use of biomarkers to assess FV intake and a consideration of how modifying behaviour towards increased FV intake could impact environmental outcomes, planetary health and food systems. In conclusion, although there are still considerable uncertainties which require further research, which were considered as part of the conference and are summarised in this review, adopting a plant-rich DP at a population level could have a considerable impact on diet and health outcomes, as well as planetary health.

Dietary Change and Global Sustainable Development Goals

Food production for human consumption is a leading cause of environmental damage in the world and yet over two billion people suffer from malnutrition. Several studies have presented evidence that changes in dietary patterns across the world can lead to win-win outcomes for environmental and social sustainability and can complement ongoing technological and policy efforts to improve the efficiency of agricultural production. However, the existing evidence have been compiled in “silos” by a large range of researchers across several disciplines using different indicators. The aim of this quantitative review is to bring together the existing knowledge on heterogeneity of current dietary patterns across the world and how a transition toward healthy diets in different countries can aid in progress toward multiple global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We first summarize the nutritional quality, economic cost, and environmental footprint of current diets of over 150 countries using multiple indicators. Next, we review which shifts in dietary patterns across different world regions can help toward achievement of SDG2 (Zero hunger), SDG3 (Good health and wellbeing), SDG 6 (Clean water and sanitation), SDG13 (Climate action), SDG14 (Life below water), and SDG15 (Life on land). Finally, we briefly discuss how to enable the shift toward sustainable dietary patterns and identify the research and data gaps that need to be filled through future efforts. Our analysis reveals that dietary change is necessary in all countries as each one has unique priorities and action items. For regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, increased intake of nutrient dense foods is needed to address deficiency of essential nutrients like folate, potassium, and vitamin A. For North America and Europe, shifting toward more plant-based diets would be healthier and simultaneously reduce the per capita environmental footprints. The results can be useful for policymakers in designing country-specific strategies for adoption of sustainable dietary behaviors and for food industry to ensure the supply of sustainable food items customized with regions' need.

Building social resilience in North Korea can mitigate the impacts of climate change on food security

Adaptation based on social resilience is proposed as an effective measure to mitigate hunger and avoid food shocks caused by climate change. But these have not been investigated comprehensively in climate-sensitive regions. North Korea (NK) and its neighbours, South Korea and China, represent three economic levels that provide us with examples for examining climatic risk and quantifying the contribution of social resilience to rice production. Here our data-driven estimates show that climatic factors determined rice biomass changes in NK from 2000 to 2017, and climate extremes triggered reductions in production in 2000 and 2007. If no action is taken, NK will face a higher climatic risk (with continuous high-temperature heatwaves and precipitation extremes) by the 2080s under a high-emissions scenario, when rice biomass and production are expected to decrease by 20.2% and 14.4%, respectively, thereby potentially increasing hunger in NK. Social resilience (agricultural inputs and population development for South Korea; resource use for China) mitigated climate shocks in the past 20 years (2000-2019), even transforming adverse effects into benefits. However, this effect was not significant in NK. Moreover, the contribution of social resilience to food production in the undeveloped region (15.2%) was far below the contribution observed in the developed and developing regions (83.0% and 86.1%, respectively). These findings highlight the importance of social resilience to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on food security and human hunger and provide necessary quantitative information.

Trade and dietary preferences can determine micronutrient security in the United Kingdom

Food production, dietary choices, climate change, trade tariffs and future responses to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are some of the factors affecting global food security. Here we examine how micronutrient security has varied in the United Kingdom from 1961 to 2017, before Brexit, taking supply and demand driver changes into account. We also introduce future scenarios to see how a more plant-based diet and/or differing trade arrangement post-European Union exit and COVID-19 pandemic could affect the supply of nutrients. Results show that trading agreements have affected several key micronutrients during the past 60 years and are likely to be influential in a post-Brexit United Kingdom. Changes in dietary patterns, which influence how much animal- and plant-based products are consumed, have also affected micronutrient security and are likely to do so in the future with increased interest in consuming a more plant-based diet.

Changes in Climate Vulnerability and Projected Water Stress of The Gambia's Food Supply Between 1988 and 2018: Trading With Trade-Offs

Background

The coexistence of under- and overnutrition is of increasing public health concern in The Gambia. Fruits, vegetables and pulses are essential to healthy and sustainable diets, preventing micronutrient deficiencies and non-communicable diseases, while cereals significantly contribute to energy intake. However, environmental changes are predicted to intensify, reducing future yields of these crops if agricultural productivity and resilience are not improved. The Gambia is highly climate-vulnerable and import-dependent, but the extent of its reliance on other climate-vulnerable countries for its supply of nutritionally important crops is currently unknown.

Methods

We used United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization data, with novel origin-tracing algorithms applied, to analyse The Gambia's supply of cereals, fruits, vegetables and pulses between 1988 and 2018. The climate vulnerability of countries was assessed using Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) index scores, and projected water stress (2040) assessed using World Resources Institute (WRI) scores. Multilevel generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to identify changes in the overall climate vulnerability and projected water stress of supply.

Results

Between 1988 and 2018, The Gambia's supply of cereals, fruits, vegetables and pulses diversified, with the proportion domestically produced falling (Cereals: 61.4%-27.7%; Fruits: 93.0%-55.7%; Vegetables: 24.6%-16.3%; Pulses: 100.0%-76.0%). The weighted-average ND-GAIN scores improved (indicating less climate vulnerability) for supply of all crops except cereals, but the weighted-average WRI score for supply deteriorated (indicating increased projected water stress) for all crops except vegetables. When just considering imports, weighted-average ND-GAIN scores deteriorated for fruits and cereals while showing no significant change for other food groups, and the WRI score deteriorated for cereals only.

Conclusions

Despite some notable improvements in the environmental vulnerability of The Gambia's supply of nutritionally important crops (particularly vegetables), considerable, and in some cases increasing, proportions of their supply are produced in countries that are vulnerable to climate change and future water stress. This may have implications for the availability, affordability, and hence consumption of these crops in The Gambia, ultimately exacerbating existing nutritional challenges. Exploring the options to strengthen supply resilience-such as altering trade patterns, agricultural techniques and diets-should be prioritized.

Potential for positive biodiversity outcomes under diet-driven land use change in Great Britain

Background: A shift toward human diets that include more fruit and vegetables, and less meat is a potential pathway to improve public health and reduce food system-related greenhouse gas emissions. Associated changes in land use could include conversion of grazing land into horticulture, which makes more efficient use of land per unit of dietary energy and frees-up land for other uses. Methods: Here we use Great Britain as a case study to estimate potential impacts on biodiversity from converting grazing land to a mixture of horticulture and natural land covers by fitting species distribution models for over 800 species, including pollinating insects and species of conservation priority. Results: Across several land use scenarios that consider the current ratio of domestic fruit and vegetable production to imports, our statistical models suggest a potential for gains to biodiversity, including a tendency for more species to gain habitable area than to lose habitable area. Moreover, the models suggest that climate change impacts on biodiversity could be mitigated to a degree by land use changes associated with dietary shifts. Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that options exist for changing agricultural land uses in a way that can generate win-win-win outcomes for biodiversity, adaptation to climate change and public health.

Combined carbon and health taxes outperform single-purpose information or fiscal measures in designing sustainable food policies

The food system is a major source of both environmental and health challenges. Yet, the extent to which policy-induced changes in the patterns of food demand address these challenges remains poorly understood. Using a survey-based, randomized controlled experiment with 5,912 respondents from the United Kingdom, we evaluate the potential effect of carbon and/or health taxes, information and combined tax and information strategies on food purchase patterns and the resulting impact on greenhouse gas emissions and dietary health. Our results show that while information on the carbon and/or health characteristics of food is relevant, the imposition of taxes exerts the most substantial effects on food purchasing decisions. Furthermore, while carbon or health taxes are best at separately targeting emissions or dietary health challenges, respectively, a combined carbon and health tax policy maximizes benefits in terms of both environmental and health outcomes. We show that such a combined policy could contribute to around one third of the reductions in residual emissions required to achieve the United Kingdom's 2050 net-zero commitments, while discouraging the purchase of especially unhealthy snacks, sugary drinks and alcohol and increasing the purchase of fruit and vegetables.

Historical changes in the mineral content of fruit and vegetables in the UK from 1940 to 2019: a concern for human nutrition and agriculture

Micronutrient malnutrition is widespread and is linked with diets low in fruit and vegetables. However, during the twentieth century, declines in essential minerals in fruits and vegetables were reported in the UK and elsewhere. A new analysis of long-term trends of the mineral content of fruits and vegetables from three editions of the UK's Composition of Foods Tables (1940, 1991 and 2019) was undertaken. All elements except P declined in concentrations between 1940 and 2019 - the greatest overall reductions during this 80-year period were Na (52%), Fe (50%), Cu (49%) and Mg (10%); water content increased (1%). There could be many reasons for these reductions, including changes in crop varieties and agronomic factors associated with the industrialisation of agriculture. Increases in carbon dioxide could also play a role. We call for a thorough investigation of these reductions and steps to be taken to address the causes that could contribute to global malnutrition.

Food and feed trade has greatly impacted global land and nitrogen use efficiencies over 1961-2017

International trade of agricultural products has complicated and far-reaching impacts on land and nitrogen use efficiencies. We analysed the productivity of cropland and livestock and associated use of feed and fertilizer efficiency for over 240 countries, and estimated these countries' cumulative contributions to imports and exports of 190 agricultural products for the period 1961-2017. Crop trade has increased global land and partial fertilizer nitrogen productivities in terms of protein production, which equalled savings of 2,270 Mha cropland and 480 Tg synthetic fertilizer nitrogen over the analysed period. However, crop trade decreased global cropland productivity when productivity is expressed on an energy (per calorie) basis. Agricultural trade has generally moved towards optimality, that is, has increased global land and nitrogen use efficiencies during 1961-2017, but remains at a relatively low level. Overall, mixed impacts of trade on resource use indicate the need to rethink trade patterns and improve their optimality.

Pathways to "5-a-day": modeling the health impacts and environmental footprints of meeting the target for fruit and vegetable intake in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

Fruit and vegetable consumption in the United Kingdom is currently well below recommended levels, with a significant associated public health burden. The United Kingdom has committed to reducing its carbon emissions to net zero by 2050, and this transition will require shifts towards plant-based diets.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to quantify the health effects, environmental footprints, and cost associated with 4 different pathways to meeting the United Kingdom's "5-a-day" recommendation for fruit and vegetable consumption.

METHODS

Dietary data based on 18,006 food diaries from 4528 individuals participating in the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2012/13-2016/17) constituted the baseline diet. Linear programming was used to model the hypothetical adoption of the 5-a-day (400 g) recommendation, which was assessed according to 4 pathways differing in their prioritization of fruits versus vegetables and UK-produced versus imported varieties. Increases in fruit and vegetable consumption were substituted for consumption of sweet snacks and meat, respectively. Changes in life expectancy were assessed using the IOMLIFET life table model. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs), blue water footprint (WF), and total diet cost were quantified for each 5-a-day diet.

RESULTS

Achieving the 5-a-day target in the United Kingdom could increase average life expectancy at birth by 7-8 mo and reduce diet-related GHGEs by 6.1 to 12.2 Mt carbon dioxide equivalents/y; blue WFs would change by -0.14 to +0.07 km3/y. Greater reductions in GHGEs were achieved by prioritizing increased vegetable consumption over fruit, whereas the greatest reduction in WF was obtained by prioritizing vegetable varieties produced in the United Kingdom. All consumption pathways increased diet cost (£0.34-£0.46/d).

CONCLUSIONS

Benefits to both population and environmental health could be expected from consumption pathways that meet the United Kingdom's 5-a-day target for fruit and vegetables. Our analysis identifies cross-sectoral trade-offs and opportunities for national policy to promote fruit and vegetable consumption in the United Kingdom.

Allotments in the Future: Building Resilience to Climate Change through Improved Site Design and Efficient Water Practices

In recent years, there has been a resurgence in the popularity of allotments and home- grown food in the UK. This interest is likely to increase as people become more aware of the health benefits of spending time outdoors. Climate projections for the UK indicate that over the next 20 years, winters will become warmer and wetter, and the summers hotter and drier. Most UK allotments and community gardens are a collection of individual plots whose holders are free to manage them as they wish, within site rules. The efficacy of individual efforts to collect and store rainwater is often limited as most allotment sites were laid out when water practices were a secondary consideration. Our research, which included visiting allotment sites and reviewing growing practices, suggests that grouping plots and sharing water facilities could enable plot holders to store sufficient water to meet anticipated demand for thirty rain-free days in midsummer. This combined with growing practices that improve soil moisture capacity and water use efficiency will provide effective mitigation against climate change.

Emerging infectious disease: An underappreciated area of strategic concern for food security

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) increasingly threaten global food security and public health. Despite technological breakthroughs, we are losing the battle with (re)emerging diseases as treatment costs and production losses rise. A horizon scan of diseases of crops, livestock, seafood and food-borne illness suggests these costs are unsustainable. The paradigm of coevolution between pathogens and particular hosts teaches that emerging diseases occur only when pathogens evolve specific capacities that allow them to move to new hosts. EIDs ought to be rare and unpredictable, so crisis response is the best we can do. Alternatively, the Stockholm Paradigm suggests that the world is full of susceptible but unexposed hosts that pathogens could infect, given the opportunity. Global climate change, globalized trade and travel, urbanization and land-use changes (often associated with biodiversity loss) increase those opportunities, making EID frequent. We can, however, anticipate their arrival in new locations and their behaviour once they have arrived. We can 'find them before they find us', mitigating their impacts. The DAMA (Document, Assess, Monitor, Act) protocol alters the current reactive stance and embodies proactive solutions to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of EID, extending human and material resources and buying time for development of new vaccinations, medications and control measures.