Retail prices of nutritious food rose more in countries with higher COVID-19 case counts

Assessing the role of global food commodity prices in achieving the 2030 agenda for SDGs

Food plays a vital role in human sustenance and well-being, and the fluctuations in its price exert a significant impact on the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) from social, economic, and environmental perspectives. This paper conducts an analysis utilizing data from 163 countries, revealing that an upsurge in global food commodity prices entails trade-offs with 13 SDGs, while exhibiting synergies with a few others. By considering specific food products, various types of countries, and the supply and demand shocks, further analysis confirms predominantly negative associations between spikes in food prices and the SDGs. Our findings highlight the urgent imperative to mitigate abrupt increases in food prices, such as those witnessed during the 2022 food crisis, to ensure the comprehensive fulfillment of the 2030 agenda for SDGs.

Effects of Policy Intervention on Food System Resilience to Emergency Risk Shock: Experience from China during COVID-19 Pandemic

Achieving the goal of zero hunger within the goal of sustainable development requires improving the resilience of food systems to various types of risk shocks; food systems have shown significant vulnerability to COVID-19 outbreaks and transmission. By analyzing the impact of China's lockdown policy and food security emergency policy in 2020 on food prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, we can clarify the role of policy intervention in enhancing the resilience of the food system, which can provide guidance, using China's experience, for dealing with global food safety emergencies in the future. Firstly, we selected Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong as food-consuming areas, and Shandong, Henan, and Hubei as food-producing areas. We also collected food security emergency policy data from the Chinese government website during the COVID-19 pandemic. Secondly, a difference-in-difference method was used to observe that Chinese cabbage and pork prices in the main food-producing areas and food-consuming areas rose more obviously after the adoption of lockdown policy, and Chinese cabbage and pork prices in the food-consuming areas increased more obviously than those in food-producing areas. However, staple food prices have not risen significantly. Thirdly, the response of four kinds of food prices to the food security emergency policy is analyzed quantitatively and graphically using the food price volatility index and food price increase rate; we observed that the response of food prices to the food security emergency policy is related to the food types and regions. For food types, the fluctuation degree and increase in Chinese cabbage and pork prices decreased significantly after the adoption of the food security emergency policy. For regions, when the food security emergency policy was adopted, the food prices in the main food-consuming areas fluctuated more obviously than those in food-producing areas. Finally, we found that the implementation of the transport policy and the joint supply emergency policy in the main producing and consuming areas has played a very significant and positive role in stabilizing food prices.

COVID-19 mobility restrictions and stay-at-home behaviour in 2020 were associated with higher retail food prices worldwide

COVID-19 policy responses have included mobility restrictions, and many people have chosen to stay at home to avoid exposure. These actions have ambiguous impacts on food prices, lowering demand for food away from home and perishables, while increasing supply costs for items where workers are most affected by the pandemic. We use evidence from 160 countries to identify the net direction and magnitude of association between countries' real cost of all food and mobility restriction stringency. We investigate the deviation of each month's price level in 2020 from that month's average price level during the previous three years and find that an increase in mobility restriction stringency from no restrictions to most restrictive is associated with an increase in the real cost of all food of more than one percentage point across all models. We then examine the relationship between retail food price levels by food group and stay-at-home behaviour around markets in 36 countries and find positive associations for non-perishables, dairy and eggs.

The Nutrient Rich Food Price Index: a nutrition-relevant adaptation of the Laspeyres price index to track the cost of affordable nutrient density

Background

The Laspeyres price index is the ratio of the current cost of a market basket of commodities or food groups relative to base period prices.

Objective

To develop a nutrition-relevant version of the Laspeyres price index, using market baskets based on tertiles of the nutrient rich food (NRF9.3) nutrient density metric.

Methods

Nutrient composition data for 151 foods from the 2012 Mexico national health and nutrition survey (ENSANUT) were merged with food prices and price indices from the national institute of geography and statistics (INEGI). Nutrient Rich Food Index (NRF9.3) was the measure of nutrient density. May 2012 was the base period. Nutrient rich food price index (NRFPI) values were calculated for each tertile of NRF nutrient density scores for each month between June 2011 and March 2022.

Results

The market basket of foods in the top tertile of NRF nutrient density scores cost more per 100 kcal and had higher NRFPI values compared to foods in the bottom tertile. Higher NRF9.3 scores were correlated with greater monthly inflation. The NRFPI for foods in the top tertile of NRF9.3 scores was marked by seasonal price spikes, and greater volatility compared to foods in the bottom tertile.

Conclusion

The present adaptation of the Laspeyres Index used market baskets defined by nutrient density tertiles instead of commodity groups. This approach allows for easier tracking of the cost of nutrient dense foods and healthful diets across geographic regions and over time. Applied to Mexico food prices prior to and during the Covid-19 pandemic, the NRFPI was sensitive to time trends, seasonality, and price fluctuations. The new tool may be useful in monitoring the rising cost of healthy foods worldwide.

Observational study of population level disparities in food costs in 2021 in Canada: A digital national nutritious food basket (dNNFB)

The aim of this work was to assess the feasibility and effect of applying a nationally representative and highly disaggregated food costing measure across Canada, through the novel application of web-scraping technology to the methods of the National Nutritious Food Basket (NNFB). Further, this study tested the hypothesis that a product-matched digital NNFB (dNNFB) correlates with existing market basket measures and quantified any differences in costs. This was an observational cross-sectional study using web scraped food price data collected in November 2021. Food price data was collected from the majority of Loblaw's banners across Canada, resulting in a final store sample of 751 stores sourced from 11 retail banners. Stores were located across all five Statistics Canada regions, including all provinces and territories with the exception of Nunavut. Store-level dNNFB costs were computed, adjusted by age-sex group, and summarized by geographic region and banner. dNNFB costs were then compared with existing national statistics office estimates (Market Basket Measure thresholds for reference families). dNNFB costs varied widely across the country, with notable differences by regional, store-level, and age-sex group characteristics. When compared to reported national statistics, our estimates exceeded the national market basket measure in every comparison in corresponding sub-national geography across the country, with correlation varying from 0.49 to 0.78 dependent on summary comparator. Digital collection of food price data was a feasible strategy for market basket costing. Our findings suggest we may be routinely underestimating the impact of food inflation for consumers, particularly those restricted to certain food environments.

Compound impact of COVID-19, economy and climate on the spatial distribution of global agriculture and food security

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to unfold around the world, the per unit area yield of the world's three major crops (i.e. maize, rice and wheat) decreased simultaneously for the first time in 20 years, and nearly 2.37 billion people faced food insecurity in 2020. Around 119-124 million people were pushed back into extreme poverty. Drought is one of the natural hazards that mostly affect agricultural production, and 2020 is one of the three warmest years on record. When the pandemic, economic recession and extreme climate change occur simultaneously, food crisis will often be exacerbated. Due to the limited research on the geographic modelling of crops and food security at the country level, we investigated the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic (COVID-19 incidence and mortality rate), economic (GDP and per capita GDP), climate (temperature change and drought), and their compound effects on three crop yields and food security in the world. On the basis of verifying the spatial autocorrelation, we used the global ordinary least squares model to select the explanatory variables. Then, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and multi-scale GWR (MGWR), were utilised to explore spatial non-stationary relationships. Results indicated that the MGWR was more efficient than the traditional GWR. On the whole, per capita GDP was the most important explanatory variable for most countries. However, the direct threats of COVID-19, temperature change and drought on crops and food security were small and localised. This study is the first to utilise advanced spatial methods to analyse the impacts of natural and human disasters on agriculture and food security in various countries, which can serve as a geographical guide for the World Food Organization, other relief agencies and policymakers to conduct food aid, health and medical assistance, financial support, climate change policy formulation, and anti-epidemic policy formulation.

The Role of Alternative Crops in an Upcoming Global Food Crisis: A Concise Review

Achieving Food Security (FS) is perhaps our most challenging aspiration. Despite our best efforts, millions of people around the globe are malnourished or live with hunger. The state of the geo-political scene, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic, have recently brought forth fears of a Global Food Crisis (GFC). Here, we present the factors that threaten FS and could trigger a GFC, examine the potential of alternative crops (ACs) as a measure against an upcoming GFC, and highlight the key aspects of the ACs introduction process in new regions. ACs could enhance FS, yet their success is premised on the adoption of sustainable practices and the implementation of food strategies that aim to promote healthy consumer behaviours.