A record-linkage study of the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in persons with hepatitis C infection in Scotland

Evaluating the population impact of hepatitis C direct acting antiviral treatment as prevention for people who inject drugs (EPIToPe) - a natural experiment (protocol)

INTRODUCTION

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the second largest contributor to liver disease in the UK, with injecting drug use as the main risk factor among the estimated 200 000 people currently infected. Despite effective prevention interventions, chronic HCV prevalence remains around 40% among people who inject drugs (PWID). New direct-acting antiviral (DAA) HCV therapies combine high cure rates (>90%) and short treatment duration (8 to 12 weeks). Theoretical mathematical modelling evidence suggests HCV treatment scale-up can prevent transmission and substantially reduce HCV prevalence/incidence among PWID. Our primary aim is to generate empirical evidence on the effectiveness of HCV 'Treatment as Prevention' (TasP) in PWID.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We plan to establish a natural experiment with Tayside, Scotland, as a single intervention site where HCV care pathways are being expanded (including specialist drug treatment clinics, needle and syringe programmes (NSPs), pharmacies and prison) and HCV treatment for PWID is being rapidly scaled-up. Other sites in Scotland and England will act as potential controls. Over 2 years from 2017/2018, at least 500 PWID will be treated in Tayside, which simulation studies project will reduce chronic HCV prevalence among PWID by 62% (from 26% to 10%) and HCV incidence will fall by approximately 2/3 (from 4.2 per 100 person-years (p100py) to 1.4 p100py). Treatment response and re-infection rates will be monitored. We will conduct focus groups and interviews with service providers and patients that accept and decline treatment to identify barriers and facilitators in implementing TasP. We will conduct longitudinal interviews with up to 40 PWID to assess whether successful HCV treatment alters their perspectives on and engagement with drug treatment and recovery. Trained peer researchers will be involved in data collection and dissemination. The primary outcome - chronic HCV prevalence in PWID - is measured using information from the Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative survey in Scotland and the Unlinked Anonymous Monitoring Programme in England, conducted at least four times before and three times during and after the intervention. We will adapt Bayesian synthetic control methods (specifically the Causal Impact Method) to generate the cumulative impact of the intervention on chronic HCV prevalence and incidence. We will use a dynamic HCV transmission and economic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the HCV TasP intervention, and to estimate the contribution of the scale-up in HCV treatment to observe changes in HCV prevalence. Through the qualitative data we will systematically explore key mechanisms of TasP real world implementation from provider and patient perspectives to develop a manual for scaling up HCV treatment in other settings. We will compare qualitative accounts of drug treatment and recovery with a 'virtual cohort' of PWID linking information on HCV treatment with Scottish Drug treatment databases to test whether DAA treatment improves drug treatment outcomes.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Extending HCV community care pathways is covered by ethics (ERADICATE C, ISRCTN27564683, Super DOT C Trial clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02706223). Ethical approval for extra data collection from patients including health utilities and qualitative interviews has been granted (REC ref: 18/ES/0128) and ISCRCTN registration has been completed (ISRCTN72038467). Our findings will have direct National Health Service and patient relevance; informing prioritisation given to early HCV treatment for PWID. We will present findings to practitioners and policymakers, and support design of an evaluation of HCV TasP in England.

Non drug-related and opioid-specific causes of 3262 deaths in Scotland's methadone-prescription clients, 2009-2015

BACKGROUND

Opioid drug use is a major cause of premature mortality, with opioid substitution therapy the leading intervention. As methadone-clients age, non-drug-related deaths (non-DRDs) predominate and DRD-risks increase differentially, quadrupling at 45+ years for methadone-specific DRDs.

METHODS

36,606 methadone-prescription-clients in Scotland during 2009-2015 were linked to mortality records to end-2015 by their Community Health Index (CHI). Cohort-entry, also baseline quantity of prescribed methadone, were defined by clients' first CHI-identified methadone-prescription during 2009-2015. National Records of Scotland identified non-DRDs from DRDs; and provided ICD10 codes for underlying and co-present causes of death. Methadone-specific DRD means methadone was implicated in DRD but neither heroin nor buprenorphine.

RESULTS

During 193,800 person-years of follow-up, 1939 non-DRDs (59%) and 1323 DRDs occurred, of which 546 were methadone-specific. Predominant underlying ICD10 chapters for non-DRDs were: neoplasm (377); external causes (341); diseases of digestive (303), circulatory (286) or respiratory (212) system. As methadone-clients aged, the non-DRD proportion of their deaths increased from 54% (717/1318) at 35-44 years to 89% (372/417) at 55+ years. After allowing for DRDs' opioid-specificity, age-group and quintile for last-prescribed methadone, there was a significant, positive interaction for co-present circulatory disease between top-quintile for prescribed methadone and 45+ years at death (p = 0.033 after Bonferroni); not for digestive or respiratory co-presence.

CONCLUSIONS

Circulatory disease is the co-morbidity most likely implicated in the quadrupling of methadone-specific DRD-risk at 45+ years; followed by digestive disease. Cultural shift is needed in treatment-services because degenerative non-DRDs predominate as methadone-clients age. Future linkage-studies should access hospitalizations and methadone-daily-dose.

Modelling the impact of a national scale-up of interventions on hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs in Scotland

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To reduce hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID), Scottish Government-funded national strategies, launched in 2008, promoted scaling-up opioid substitution therapy (OST) and needle and syringe provision (NSP), with some increases in HCV treatment. We test whether observed decreases in HCV incidence post-2008 can be attributed to this intervention scale-up.

DESIGN

A dynamic HCV transmission model among PWID incorporating intervention scale-up and observed decreases in behavioural risk, calibrated to Scottish HCV prevalence and incidence data for 2008/09.

SETTING

Scotland, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

PWID.

MEASUREMENTS

Model projections from 2008 to 2015 were compared with data to test whether they were consistent with observed decreases in HCV incidence among PWID while incorporating the observed intervention scale-up, and to determine the impact of scaling-up interventions on incidence.

FINDINGS

Without fitting to epidemiological data post-2008/09, the model incorporating observed intervention scale-up agreed with observed decreases in HCV incidence among PWID between 2008 and 2015, suggesting that HCV incidence decreased by 61.3% [95% credibility interval (CrI) = 45.1-75.3%] from 14.2/100 person-years (py) (9.0-20.7) to 5.5/100 py (2.9-9.2). On average, each model fit lay within 84% (10.1/12) of the confidence bounds for the 12 incidence data points against which the model was compared. We estimate that scale-up of interventions (OST + NSP + HCV treatment) and decreases in high-risk behaviour from 2008 to 2015 resulted in a 33.9% (23.8-44.6%) decrease in incidence, with the remainder [27.4% (17.6-37.0%)] explained by historical changes in OST + NSP coverage and risk pre-2008. Projections suggest that scaling-up of all interventions post-2008 averted 1492 (657-2646) infections over 7 years, with 1016 (308-1996), 404 (150-836) and 72 (27-137) due to scale-up of OST + NSP, decreases in high-risk behaviour and HCV treatment, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Most of the decline in hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence in Scotland between 2008 and 2015 appears to be attributable to intervention scale-up (opioid substitution therapy and needle and syringe provision) due to government strategies on HCV and drugs.

Economic evaluation of ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir and dasabuvir for the treatment of chronic genotype 1 hepatitis c virus infection

OBJECTIVES

To estimate clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir and dasabuvir ± ribavirin (OMB/PTV/r + DSV ± RBV) compared with treatment regimens including pegylated interferon (PegIFN) for patients with chronic genotype 1 hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection.

METHODS

An Excel spreadsheet Markov model tracking progression through stages of liver disease was developed. Costs and patient utilities for liver disease stages were taken from published studies. Rates of disease progression were based on studies of untreated HCV infection and long-term follow-up of those achieving sustained virologic response (SVR) after drug treatment. Impact of OMB/PTV/r + DSV ± RBV and other drug regimens on progression was estimated through SVR rates from clinical trials. Analyses were performed for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced patients. Impact of alternative scenarios and input parameter uncertainty on the results were tested.

RESULTS

For genotype 1 treatment-naive HCV patients, for OMB/PTV/r + DSV ± RBV, PegIFN + ribavirin (PegIFN/RBV), sofosbuvir + PegIFN/RBV, telaprevir + PegIFN/RBV, boceprevir + PegIFN/RBV, lifetime risk of decompensated liver disease was 5.6%, 18.9%, 7.4%, 11.7%, and 14.9%; hepatocellular carcinoma was 5.4%, 9.2%, 5.7%, 7.0%, and 7.4%; and death from liver disease was 8.7%, 22.2%, 10.4%, 14.8%, and 17.6%, respectively. Estimates of the cost-effectiveness of OMB/PTV/r + DSV ± RBV for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced patients indicated that it dominated all other regimens except PegIFN/RBV. Compared with PegIFN/RBV, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were £13,864 and £10,258 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced patients, respectively. The results were similar for alternative scenarios and uncertainty analyses.

LIMITATIONS

A mixed-treatment comparison for SVR rates for the different treatment regimens was not feasible, because many regimens did not have comparator arms; instead SVR rates were based on those from recent trials.

CONCLUSIONS

OMB/PTV/r + DSV ± RBV is a cost-effective oral treatment regimen for chronic genotype 1 HCV infection compared with standard treatment regimens and is estimated to reduce the lifetime risks of advanced liver disease.

Risk-factors for methadone-specific deaths in Scotland's methadone-prescription clients between 2009 and 2013

AIM

To quantify gender, age-group and quantity of methadone prescribed as risk factors for drugs-related deaths (DRDs), and for methadone-specific DRDs, in Scotland's methadone-prescription clients.

DESIGN

Linkage to death-records for Scotland's methadone-clients with one or more Community Health Index (CHI)-identified methadone prescriptions during July 2009 to June 2013.

SETTING

Scotland's Prescribing Information System and National Records of Scotland.

MEASUREMENTS

Covariates defined at first CHI-identified methadone prescription, and person-years at-risk (pys) thereafter until the earlier of death-date or 31 December 2013. Methadone-specific DRDs were defined as: methadone implicated but neither heroin nor buprenorphine. Hazard ratios (HRs) were assessed using proportional hazards regression.

FINDINGS

Scotland's CHI-identified methadone-prescription cohort comprised 33,128 clients, 121,254 pys, 1,171 non-DRDs and 760 DRDs (6.3 per 1,000 pys), of which 362 were methadone-specific. Irrespective of gender, methadone-specific DRD-rate, per 1,000 pys, was higher in the 35+ age-group (4.2; 95% CI: 3.6-4.7) than for younger clients (1.9; 95% CI: 1.5-2.2). For methadone-specific DRDs, age-related HRs (e.g., 2.9 at 45+ years; 95% CI: 2.1-3.9) were steeper than for all DRDs (1.9; 95% CI: 1.5-2.4); there was no hazard-reduction for females; no gender by age-group interaction; and, unlike for all DRDs, the highest quintile for quantity of prescribed methadone at cohort-entry (>1960mg) was associated with increased HR (1.8; 95% CI: 1.3-2.5).

CONCLUSION

Higher methadone-specific DRD rates in older clients, irrespective of gender, call for better understanding of methadone's pharmaco-dynamics in older, opioid-dependent clients, many with progressive physical or mental ill-health.

Evidence of continued injecting drug use after attaining sustained treatment-induced clearance of the hepatitis C virus: Implications for reinfection

BACKGROUND

People who inject drugs (PWID) are at the greatest risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, yet are often denied immediate treatment due to fears of on-going risk behaviour. Our principal objective was to examine evidence of continued injecting drug use among PWID following successful treatment for HCV and attainment of a sustained viral response (SVR).

METHODS

PWID who attained SVR between 1992 and June 2012 were selected from the National Scottish Hepatitis C Clinical Database. Hospitalisation and mortality records were sourced for these patients using record linkage techniques. Our primary outcome variable was any hospitalisation or death, which was indicative of injecting drugs post-SVR.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 1170 PWID (mean age at SVR 39.6y; 76% male). The Kaplan Meier estimate of incurring the primary outcome after three years of SVR was 10.59% (95% CI, 8.75-12.79) After adjusting for confounding, the risk of an injection related hospital episode or death post-SVR was significantly increased with advancing year of SVR: AHR:1.07 per year (95% CI, 1.01-1.14), having a pre-SVR acute alcohol intoxication-related hospital episode: AHR:1.83 (95% CI, 1.29-2.60), and having a pre-SVR opiate or injection-related hospital episode: AHR:2.59 (95% CI, 1.84-3.64).

CONCLUSION

Despite attaining the optimal treatment outcome, these data indicate that an increasing significant minority of PWID continue to inject post-SVR at an intensity which leads to either hospitalisation or death and increased risk of reinfection.

Expansion of HCV treatment access to people who have injected drugs through effective translation of research into public health policy: Scotland's experience

Seven years have elapsed since the Scottish Government launched its Hepatitis C Action Plan - a Plan to improve services to prevent transmission of infection, particularly among people who inject drugs (PWID), identify those infected and ensure those infected receive optimal treatment. The Plan was underpinned by industrial scale funding (around £100 million, in addition to the general NHS funding, will have been invested by 2015), and a web of accountable national and local multi-disciplinary multi-agency networks responsible for the planning, development and delivery of services. Initiatives ranged from the introduction of testing in specialist drug services through finger-prick blood sampling by non-clinical staff, to the setting of government targets to ensure rapid scale-up of antiviral therapy. The Plan was informed by comprehensive national monitoring systems, indicating the extent of the problem not just in terms of numbers infected, diagnosed and treated but also the more penetrative data on the number advancing to end-stage liver disease and death, and also through compelling modelling work demonstrating the potential beneficial impact of scaling-up therapy and the mounting cost of not acting. Achievements include around 50% increase in the proportion of the infected population diagnosed (38% to 55%); a sustained near two-and-a-half fold increase in the annual number of people initiated onto therapy (470 to 1050) with more pronounced increases among PWID (300 to 840) and prisoners (20 to 140); and reversing of an upward trend in the overall number of people living with chronic infection. The Action Plan has demonstrated that a Government-backed, coordinated and invested approach can transform services and rapidly improve the lives of thousands. Cited as "an impressive example of a national strategy" by the Global Commission on Drug Policy, the Scottish Plan has also provided fundamental insights of international relevance into the management of HCV among PWID.

Increasing survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients in Scotland: a review of national cancer registry data

OBJECTIVES

This study describes changes in the survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) registered with the Scottish Cancer Registry between 1985 and 2008.

METHODS

Data on patients diagnosed with HCC were extracted from the Scottish Cancer Registry, along with linked data on treatment and risk factors for liver disease. One-, 3- and 5-year relative survival rates were calculated for each time period and a Cox regression model was used to assess the impact of prior admissions on survival.

RESULTS

The incidence of HCC increased between 1985 and 2008. The proportion of patients with prior alcohol-related admissions rose over the time period studied from 16.0% to 27.1%. Five-year relative survival increased in women between 1985-1989 and 2005-2007 from 0.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.0-3.7] to 10.6% (95% CI 5.2-18.1). In men, 5-year relative survival increased from 0.4% (95% CI 0.2-2.2) to 4.4% (95% CI 1.5-9.9). Regression analysis showed that older age, history of alcohol-related admissions and deprivation were associated with lower survival, and hospitalization for viral hepatitis was associated with higher survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Against the background of an increasing incidence of HCC in Scotland, survival times have increased substantially.

Trends in all cause and viral liver disease-related hospitalizations in people with hepatitis B or C: a population-based linkage study

Background

Previous studies have reported an excess burden of cancer and mortality in populations with chronic hepatitis B (HBV) or C (HCV), but there are limited data comparing hospitalization rates. In this study, we compared hospitalization rates for all causes and viral liver disease in people notified with HBV or HCV in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.

Methods

HBV and HCV notifications were linked to their hospital (July 2000-June 2006), HIV and death records. Standardized hospitalization ratios (SHRs) were calculated using rates for the NSW population. Random effects Poisson regression was used to examine temporal trends.

Results

The SHR for all causes and non alcoholic liver disease was two-fold higher in the HCV cohort compared with the HBV cohort (SHRs 1.4 (95%CI: 1.4-1.4) v 0.6 (95%CI: 0.6-0.6) and 14.0 (95%CI: 12.7-15.4) v 5.4 (95%CI: 4.5-6.4), respectively), whilst the opposite was seen for primary liver cancer (SHRs 16.2 (95%CI: 13.8-19.1) v 29.1 (95%CI: 24.7-34.2)). HIV co-infection doubled the SHR except for primary liver cancer in the HCV/HIV cohort. In HBV and HCV mono-infected cohorts, all cause hospitalization rates declined and primary liver cancer rates increased, whilst rates for non alcoholic liver disease increased by 9% in the HCV cohort but decreased by 14% in the HBV cohort (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Hospital-related morbidity overall and for non alcoholic liver disease was considerably higher for HCV than HBV. Improved treatment of advanced HBV-related liver disease may explain why HBV liver-related morbidity declined. In contrast, HCV liver-related morbidity increased and improved treatments, especially for advanced liver disease, and higher levels of treatment uptake are required to reverse this trend.

Identification and application of biomarkers in molecular and genomic epidemiologic research

Biomarkers are characteristic biological properties that can be detected and measured in a variety of biological matrices in the human body, including the blood and tissue, to give an indication of whether there is a threat of disease, if a disease already exists, or how such a disease may develop in an individual case. Along the continuum from exposure to clinical disease and progression, exposure, internal dose, biologically effective dose, early biological effect, altered structure and/or function, clinical disease, and disease progression can potentially be observed and quantified using biomarkers. While the traditional discovery of biomarkers has been a slow process, the advent of molecular and genomic medicine has resulted in explosive growth in the discovery of new biomarkers. In this review, issues in evaluating biomarkers will be discussed and the biomarkers of environmental exposure, early biologic effect, and susceptibility identified and validated in epidemiological studies will be summarized. The spectrum of genomic approaches currently used to identify and apply biomarkers and strategies to validate genomic biomarkers will also be discussed.

Alcohol and Cancer Epidemiology

In a comprehensive worldwide assessment of cancer risk related to food and nutrition, the American Institute for Cancer Research (AICR 2007) identified alcohol consumption as a “convincing” or “probable” risk factor for esophageal, mouth, and laryngeal cancers, for liver cancer, for breast cancer in women, and for colorectal cancer especially in men. The World Health Organization’s Global Burden of Disease Project concluded that “A total of 390,000 cases of cancer are attributable to alcohol drinking worldwide, representing 3.6% of all cancers (5.2% in men, 1.7% in women)” each year, with a corresponding annual mortality rate of 233,000, representing 3.5% of all cancer deaths (Boffetta et al. 2006). For the USA, the Alcohol-Related Disease Impact (ARDI) report indicates an annual rate of 2,464 deaths in six different alcohol-related cancer categories for the period 2001–2006 (CDC 2010).

Hospitalization rates associated with hepatitis B and HIV co-infection, age and sex in a population-based cohort of people diagnosed with hepatitis C

To determine the extent age, sex and co-infection affect morbidity in people infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV), we performed a population-based study linking HCV notifications in New South Wales, Australia with their hospital (July 2000 to June 2006), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and HIV notification, and death records. Poisson models were used to calculate hospitalization rate ratios (RRs) for all-cause, illicit drug and liver-related admissions. Co-infection RRs were used to estimate attributable risk (AR). The 86 501 people notified with HCV contributed 422 761 person-years of observation; 0·8% had HIV, 3·7% HBV, and 0·04% had both. RRs for males were equal to or lower than for females in younger ages, but higher in older ages (Pfor interaction ⩽0·013). HBV/HIV co-infection resulted in ARs of over 70% for liver disease and 30–60% otherwise. However, at the cohort level the impact was minimal (population ARs 1·3–8·7%). Our findings highlight the importance and success of public health measures, such as needle and syringe exchange programmes, which have helped to minimize the prevalence of co-infection in Australia. The findings also suggest that the age of study participants needs to be considered whenever the burden of HCV-related morbidity is reported by sex. The results are likely to be representative of patterns in hospital-related morbidity for the entire HCV-infected population in Australia and the ARs generalizable to other developed countries.

Hospital-related morbidity in people notified with hepatitis C: a population-based record linkage study in New South Wales, Australia

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Statistics are available about hepatitis C (HCV)-related transplants, mortality and cancer risk but little is known about morbidity in the earlier stages of infection. We examined condition specific (principal diagnosis) and overall hospitalization rates for the cohort of individuals notified with hepatitis C in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.

METHODS

HCV notifications in NSW were linked to their hospital records (available for July 2000 to June 2006), HIV and hepatitis B notifications, and death records. Cases co-infected with HIV or hepatitis B were excluded. Hospitalization rates by person-years of observation were calculated and compared with those expected using rates for the NSW population to calculate standardized hospitalization ratios (SHRs).

RESULTS

Patterns of admission were generally similar to the NSW population, with the highest rates in the elderly. However, rates were 42% higher than expected overall and significantly increased in ages 15-64 years. The greatest was excess in 15-19 year olds (SHR 3.8, 95% CI 3.4-4.2), especially females (SHR 4.5, 95% CI 4.1-4.9). Lifestyle factors accounted for the highest absolute and relative rates in young adults while liver disease contributed the greatest burden in older adults. Illicit drug-related conditions accounted for 9% of admissions (SHR 16.1, 95% CI 15.7-16.6) while alcohol and liver-related conditions each accounted for 5% (SHRs 5.1, 95% CI 4.9-5.4 and 15.7, 95% CI 15.0-16.4, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the need for strategies to minimize lifestyle-related harms, including alcohol consumption, and to improve HCV treatment uptake, in order to reduce morbidity in people with HCV infection.