Age, Dehydration, Respiratory Failure, Orientation Disturbance, and Blood Pressure Score Predicts In-hospital Mortality in HIV-negative Non-multidrug-resistant Smear-positive Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Japan

Is the Pharmacokinetics of First-Line Anti-TB Drugs a Cause of High Mortality Rates in TB Patients Admitted to the ICU? A Non-Compartmental Pharmacokinetic Analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients with tuberculosis (TB) may develop multi-organ failure and require admission to intensive care. In these cases, the mortality rates are as high as 78% and may be caused by suboptimal serum concentrations of first-line TB drugs. This study aims to compare the pharmacokinetics of oral rifampin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide and ethambutol patients in intensive care units (ICU) to outpatients and to evaluate drug serum concentrations as a potential cause of mortality.

METHODS

A prospective pharmacokinetic (PK) study was performed in Amazonas State, Brazil. The primary PK parameters of outpatients who achieved clinical and microbiological cure were used as a comparative target in a non-compartmental analysis.

RESULTS

Thirteen ICU and twenty outpatients were recruited. The clearance and volume of distribution were lower for rifampin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide and ethambutol. ICU thirty-day mortality was 77% versus a cure rate of 89% in outpatients.

CONCLUSIONS

ICU patients had a lower clearance and volume of distribution for rifampin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide and ethambutol compared to the outpatient group. These may reflect changes to organ function, impeded absorption and distribution to the site of infection in ICU patients and have the potential to impact clinical outcomes.

A clinical indicator-based prognostic model predicting treatment outcomes of pulmonary tuberculosis: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Identifying prognostic factors helps optimize the treatment regimen and promote favorable outcomes. We conducted a prospective cohort study on patients with pulmonary tuberculosis to construct a clinical indicator-based model and estimate its performance.

METHODS

We performed a two-stage study by recruiting 346 pulmonary tuberculosis patients diagnosed between 2016 and 2018 in Dafeng city as the training cohort and 132 patients diagnosed between 2018 and 2019 in Nanjing city as the external validation population. We generated a risk score based on blood and biochemistry examination indicators by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to assess the risk score, and the strength of association was expressed as the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). We plotted the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculated the area under the curve (AUC). Internal validation was conducted by 10-fold cross-validation.

RESULTS

Ten significant indicators (PLT, PCV, LYMPH, MONO%, NEUT, NEUT%, TBTL, ALT, UA, and Cys-C) were selected to generate the risk score. Clinical indicator-based score (HR: 10.018, 95% CI: 4.904-20.468, P < 0.001), symptom-based score (HR: 1.356, 95% CI: 1.079-1.704, P = 0.009), pulmonary cavity (HR: 0.242, 95% CI: 0.087-0.674, P = 0.007), treatment history (HR: 2.810, 95% CI: 1.137-6.948, P = 0.025), and tobacco smoking (HR: 2.499, 95% CI: 1.097-5.691, P = 0.029) were significantly related to the treatment outcomes. The AUC was 0.766 (95% CI: 0.649-0.863) in the training cohort and 0.796 (95% CI: 0.630-0.928) in the validation dataset.

CONCLUSION

In addition to the traditional predictive factors, the clinical indicator-based risk score determined in this study has a good prediction effect on the prognosis of tuberculosis.

Predicting mortality in pulmonary tuberculosis: A systematic review of prognostic models

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary tuberculosis is a highly prevalent disease in low-income countries; clinical prediction tools allow healthcare personnel to catalog patients with a higher risk of death in order to prioritize medical attention.

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a literature search on prognostic models aimed to predict mortality in patients diagnosed with pulmonary tuberculosis. We included prospective and retrospective studies where prognostic models predicting mortality were either developed or validated in patients diagnosed with pulmonary tuberculosis. Three reviewers independently assessed the quality of the included studies using the PROBAST tool (Prediction model study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool). A narrative review of the characteristics of each model was conducted.

RESULTS

Six articles (n = 3553 patients) containing six prediction models were included in the review. Most studies (5 out of 6) were retrospective cohorts, only one study was a prospective case-control study. All the studies had a high risk of bias according to the PROBAST tool in the overall assessment. Regarding the applicability of the prediction models, three studies had a low concern of applicability, two high concern and one unclear concern. Five studies developed new prediction rules. In general, the presented models had a good discriminatory ability, with areas under the curve fluctuating between 0.65 up to 0.91.

CONCLUSION

None of the prognostic models included in the review accurately predict mortality in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis, due to great heterogeneity in the population and a high risk of bias.

A-DROP Scoring System in Predicting Mortality within 30 Days of Hospitalization in Community-acquired Pneumonia Patients at H. Adam Malik General Hospital Medan

BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the leading cause of death among infectious diseases, contributing significantly to patient morbidity and mortality. Therefore, an accurate initial assessment of CAP severity should be performed immediately to determine the prognosis before starting the management. A-DROP scoring system is one of the initial assessments. AIM: This study aimed to determine the accuracy of the A-DROP scoring system in predicting mortality within 30 days of hospitalization at H. Adam Malik General Hospital Medan. METHODS: This is an observational study with a retrospective and cohort study. Data were obtained from the medical records of 76 CAP patients hospitalized from January 2018 to December 2018. Each patient was assessed with an A-DROP scoring system and the presence or absence of mortality within 30 days of hospitalization. The data were processed using statistical analysis to calculate the area under curve (AUC) on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The optimal cutoff point is also analyzed using the Youden index. RESULT: The ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC was 0.772 (95% CI: 0.666–0.978, p < 0.001). The accuracy of A-DROP scoring system is good (AUC:0.7−0.8). The optimal of the Youden index is 0.428 at the cutoff point A-DROP score >1.5, so that the optimal cutoff point is A-DROP score ≥2. CONCLUSION: The A-DROP scoring system has good accuracy in predicting mortality within 30 days of hospitalized CAP patients. The A-DROP scoring system has an accuracy similar to the PSI (Pneumonia Severity Index) and the CURB-65 scoring system.

Is Dosing of Ethambutol as Part of a Fixed-Dose Combination Product Optimal for Mechanically Ventilated ICU Patients with Tuberculosis? A Population Pharmacokinetic Study

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) have high mortality rates. It is uncertain whether the pharmacokinetics of first-line TB drugs in ICU patients are different from outpatients. This study aims to compare the pharmacokinetics of oral ethambutol in TB patients in ICU versus TB outpatients and to determine whether contemporary dosing regimens achieve therapeutic exposures.

METHODS

A prospective population pharmacokinetic study of ethambutol was performed in Amazonas State, Brazil. Probability of target attainment was determined using AUC/MIC > 11.9 and C_max/MIC > 0.48 values. Optimized dosing regimens were simulated at steady state.

RESULTS

Ten ICU patients and 20 outpatients were recruited. Ethambutol pharmacokinetics were best described using a two-compartment model with first-order oral absorption. Neither ICU patients nor outpatients consistently achieved optimal ethambutol exposures. The absorption rate for ethambutol was 2-times higher in ICU patients (p < 0.05). Mean bioavailability for ICU patients was >5-times higher than outpatients (p < 0.0001). Clearance and volume of distribution were 93% (p < 0.0001) and 53% (p = 0.002) lower in ICU patients, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

ICU patients displayed significantly different pharmacokinetics for an oral fixed-dose combination administration of ethambutol compared to outpatients, and neither patient group consistently achieved pre-defined therapeutic exposures.

Safety of pyrazinamide-including regimen in late elderly patients with pulmonary tuberculosis: A prospective randomized open-label study

Pyrazinamide (PZA) -including regimen had not been fully recommended for late elderly patients with tuberculosis (TB) by Japanese Society for Tuberculosis until 2018. Studies on the safety of adding PZA to other first-line TB drugs for late elderly patients are limited. In this prospective randomized open-label study, we aimed to assess the safety of regimen including PZA for patients aged 80 or older. Patients in their eighties with smear-positive pulmonary TB without any liver diseases were randomly assigned to HRE (isoniazid, rifampicin, ethambutol) group or HREZ (HRE and PZA) group. The primary endpoint was discontinuation or interruption rate of treatment due to liver injury. Other endpoint included overall rate of liver injury, time to culture conversion, and overall mortality. Eighty-nine patients were assigned to either HRE group (n = 45) or HREZ group (n = 44). Clinical background was not different in two groups including age, smear grade, body weight, serum albumin, and activity degree. Discontinuation of treatment due to liver injury occurred in 15.6% of HRE group and 9.1% of HREZ group, which showed no statistical difference. Incidence of liver injury was also comparable between two groups. Overall mortality was statistically higher in HREZ group (3 in HRE vs. 10 in HREZ), although all deaths seemed to be irrelevant to PZA use. Time to culture conversion was significantly shorter in HREZ group (43.6 days vs. 30.2 days). In conclusion, regimen including PZA seems to be safe for late elderly patients with pulmonary TB.

Development and validation of a risk score to predict mortality during TB treatment in patients with TB-diabetes comorbidity

BACKGROUND

Making an accurate prognosis for mortality during tuberculosis (TB) treatment in TB-diabetes (TB-DM) comorbid patients remains a challenge for health professionals, especially in low TB prevalent populations, due to the lack of a standardized prognostic model.

METHODS

Using de-identified data from TB-DM patients from Texas, who received TB treatment had a treatment outcome of completed treatment or died before completion, reported to the National TB Surveillance System from January 2010-December 2016, we developed and internally validated a mortality scoring system, based on the regression coefficients.

RESULTS

Of 1227 included TB-DM patients, 112 (9.1%) died during treatment. The score used nine characteristics routinely collected by most TB programs. Patients were divided into three groups based on their score: low-risk (< 12 points), medium-risk (12-21 points) and high-risk (≥22 points). The model had good performance (with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.83 in development and 0.82 in validation), and good calibration. A practical mobile calculator app was also created ( https://oaa.app.link/Isqia5rN6K ).

CONCLUSION

Using demographic and clinical characteristics which are available from most TB programs at the patient's initial visits, our simple scoring system had good performance and may be a practical clinical tool for TB health professionals in identifying TB-DM comorbid patients with a high mortality risk.

Tuberculosis Mortality in the United States: Epidemiology and Prevention Opportunities

Rationale: More information on risk factors for death from tuberculosis in the United States could help reduce the tuberculosis mortality rate, which has remained steady for more than a decade.Objective: To identify risk factors for tuberculosis-related death in adults.Methods: We performed a retrospective study of 1,304 adults with tuberculosis who died before treatment completion and 1,039 frequency-matched control subjects who completed tuberculosis treatment in 2005 to 2006 in 13 states reporting 65% of U.S. tuberculosis cases. We used in-depth record abstractions and a standard algorithm to classify deaths in persons with tuberculosis as tuberculosis-related or not. We then compared these classifications to causes of death as coded in death certificates. We used multivariable logistic regression to calculate adjusted odds ratios for predictors of tuberculosis-related death among adults compared with those who completed tuberculosis treatment.Results: Of 1,304 adult deaths, 942 (72%) were tuberculosis related, 272 (21%) were not, and 90 (7%) could not be classified. Of 847 tuberculosis-related deaths with death certificates available, 378 (45%) did not list tuberculosis as a cause of death. Adjusting for known risks, we identified new risks for tuberculosis-related death during treatment: absence of pyrazinamide in the initial regimen (adjusted odds ratio, 3.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-6.0); immunosuppressive medications (adjusted odds ratio, 2.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-5.6); incomplete tuberculosis diagnostic evaluation (adjusted odds ratio, 2.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-3.3), and an alternative nontuberculosis diagnosis before tuberculosis diagnosis (adjusted odds ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-2.2).Conclusions: Most persons who died with tuberculosis had a tuberculosis-related death. Intensive record review revealed tuberculosis as a cause of death more often than did death certificate diagnoses. New tools, such as a tuberculosis mortality risk score based on our study findings, may identify patients with tuberculosis for in-hospital interventions to prevent death.

Factors for Predicting Outcomes among Non-HIV Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Objective Onodera's Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI), determined as "10× albumin (g/dL) + 0.005× lymphocyte count (/μL)," was originally designed to determine the risk of complications following gastrointestinal surgery. This single-center, retrospective observational study was designed to investigate whether or not the PNI can predict the treatment outcome. Methods We consecutively reviewed HIV-negative pulmonary tuberculosis adults in an isolation ward. Most patients were being treated with standard three- or four-drug regimens. Patients were discharged after consecutive negative smears/cultures were confirmed. The risk of all-cause death was assessed using a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model and a log-rank trend test. Results During the observation period, we observed 371 consecutive patients with a median age of 72 (interquartile range [IQR]: 54-82) years. In our cohort, 295 (79.5%) patients were discharged alive, and 76 (20.5%) died in-hospital. Patients who died in-hospital had a lower PNI [median 21.2 (IQR: 18.5-25.9)] than those who were discharged alive [median 35.1 (IQR: 28.0-43.3); p<0.001]. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.87. After dividing the patients based on the baseline PNI quartile, those patients with a lower PNI showed a poorer survival than those with a higher PNI (log-rank trend p<0.001). After adjusting for other baseline variables, the baseline PNI was still associated with in-hospital death with a hazard ratio of 0.86 (95% confidence interval: 0.82-0.91, p<0.001). Conclusion Our results showed that a low PNI was clearly related to a poor survival prognosis in smear-positive HIV-negative pulmonary tuberculosis inpatients.