Using heterogeneity in the population structure of U.S. swine farms to compare transmission models for porcine epidemic diarrhoea

Disinfection and conditions associated with thermo-assisted drying and decontamination inconsistently produce negative PRRSV rRT-PCR results on metal surfaces

Because contaminated livestock trailers are a significant risk for transmitting viruses between herds, various methods of washing, disinfecting, and thermo-assisted drying and decontamination (TADD) have been evaluated for their effectiveness in inactivating porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) on contaminated surfaces. Information on when to expect negative qRT-PCR results after adequate trailer sanitation is lacking. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether there are conditions associated with washing-disinfectant-TADD procedures that will consistently produce a negative qRT-PCR result for the purpose of monitoring compliance with trailer sanitation and decontamination protocols for PRRSV on metal surfaces. 144 diamond plate aluminum coupons were spiked with PRRSV or phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) and treated with a designated disinfectant protocol. Disinfectants evaluated included multiple accelerated® hydrogen peroxide (AHP) disinfectants and a quaternary ammonium and glutaraldehyde combination disinfectant. Disinfectant was applied for 5 or 60 minutes of contact time at either 20 °C or -10 °C in a matrix of feces or PBS. All coupons were heated until the surface temperature of the coupon reached 71 °C and then held for 10 minutes to simulate TADD under field conditions. Post-treatment swabs for all treatment groups, except negative control groups, were positive by PRRSV qRT-PCR. Under the conditions evaluated in this study, consistently negative qRT-PCR results after treatments were not found. Therefore, for the purpose of monitoring compliance with trailer sanitation and decontamination protocols for PRRSV, alternatives to qRT-PCR should be explored.

The between-farm transmission dynamics of porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus: A short-term forecast modelling comparison and the effectiveness of control strategies

A limited understanding of the transmission dynamics of swine disease is a significant obstacle to prevent and control disease spread. Therefore, understanding between-farm transmission dynamics is crucial to developing disease forecasting systems to predict outbreaks that would allow the swine industry to tailor control strategies. Our objective was to forecast weekly porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDV) outbreaks by generating maps to identify current and future PEDV high-risk areas, and simulating the impact of control measures. Three epidemiological transmission models were developed and compared: a novel epidemiological modelling framework was developed specifically to model disease spread in swine populations, PigSpread, and two models built on previously developed ecosystems, SimInf (a stochastic disease spread simulations) and PoPS (Pest or Pathogen Spread). The models were calibrated on true weekly PEDV outbreaks from three spatially related swine production companies. Prediction accuracy across models was compared using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC). Model outputs had a general agreement with observed outbreaks throughout the study period. PoPS had an AUC of 0.80, followed by PigSpread with 0.71, and SimInf had the lowest at 0.59. Our analysis estimates that the combined strategies of herd closure, controlled exposure of gilts to live viruses (feedback) and on-farm biosecurity reinforcement reduced the number of outbreaks. On average, 76% to 89% reduction was seen in sow farms, while in gilt development units (GDU) was between 33% to 61% when deployed to sow and GDU farms located in probabilistic high-risk areas. Our multi-model forecasting approach can be used to prioritize surveillance and intervention strategies for PEDV and other diseases potentially leading to more resilient and healthier pig production systems.

Evaluating the Risk Factors for Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus Infection in an Endemic Area of Vietnam

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) causes enteritis, vomiting, watery diarrhea, and high mortality in suckling pigs, threatening the swine industry. Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) re-emerged globally in 2013 in many important swine-producing countries in Asia and the Americas. Several studies have identified the risk factors for the spread of PEDV in acute outbreaks. However, limited information is available on the risk factors for the transmission of PEDV in endemic regions. We hypothesized that poor biosecurity, location, and some social or cultural practices are the main risk factors for PEDV transmission in the Vietnamese pig population. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk factors for the transmission of PEDV in an endemic area in Vietnam. In this case–control study, questionnaires containing 51 questions were completed for 92 PEDV-positive and 95 PEDV-negative farms. A logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the risk factors associated with PEDV infection. Province and the total number of pigs were included as random effects to determine their influence on the risk of PEDV infection. Twenty-nine variables of interest that have been associated with PEDV status were analyzed in a univariate analysis (P <0.20), with backward stepwise selection. Only three of these 29 variables in four models remained significant PEDV risk factors in the final model: farrow-to-wean production type, distance from the farm to the slaughterhouse (<1,000 m), and the presence of chickens on site (P <0.05). This is the first study to identify the main risk factors for PEDV infection in an endemic area. Our findings suggest that hygiene measures should be strictly implemented on farms for the effective control and prevention of PEDV infection.

Risk Attitudes Affect Livestock Biosecurity Decisions With Ramifications for Disease Control in a Simulated Production System

Hog producers' operational decisions can be informed by an awareness of risks associated with emergent and endemic diseases. Outbreaks of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) have been re-occurring every year since the first onset in 2013 with substantial losses across the hog production supply chain. Interestingly, a decreasing trend in PEDv incidence is visible. We assert that changes in human behaviors may underlie this trend. Disease prevention using biosecurity practices is used to minimize risk of infection but its efficacy is conditional on human behavior and risk attitude. Standard epidemiological models bring important insights into disease dynamics but have limited predictive ability. Since research shows that human behavior plays a driving role in the disease spread process, the explicit inclusion of human behavior into models adds an important dimension to understanding disease spread. Here we analyze PEDv incidence emerging from an agent-based model (ABM) that uses both epidemiological dynamics and algorithms that incorporate heterogeneous human decisions. We investigate the effects of shifting fractions of hog producers between risk tolerant and risk averse positions. These shifts affect the dynamics describing willingness to increase biosecurity as a response to disease threats and, indirectly, change infection probabilities and the resultant intensity and impact of the disease outbreak. Our ABM generates empirically verifiable patterns of PEDv transmission. Scenario results show that relatively small shifts (10% of the producer agents) toward a risk averse position can lead to a significant decrease in total incidence. For significantly steeper decreases in disease incidence, the model's hog producer population needed at least 37.5% of risk averse. Our study provides insight into the link between risk attitude, decisions related to biosecurity, and consequent spread of disease within a livestock production system. We suggest that it is possible to create positive, lasting changes in animal health by nudging the population of livestock producers toward more risk averse behaviors. We make a case for integrating social and epidemiological aspects in disease spread models to test intervention strategies intended to improve biosecurity and animal health at the system scale.

Spatio-temporal patterns and characteristics of swine shipments in the U.S. based on Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection

Domestic swine production in the United States is a critical economic and food security industry, yet there is currently no large-scale quantitative assessment of swine shipments available to support risk assessments. In this study, we provide a national-level characterization of the swine industry by quantifying the demographic (i.e. age, sex) patterns, spatio-temporal patterns, and the production diversity within swine shipments. We characterize annual networks of swine shipments using a 30% stratified sample of Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection (ICVI), which are required for the interstate movement of agricultural animals. We used ICVIs in 2010 and 2011 from eight states that represent 36% of swine operations and 63% of the U.S. swine industry. Our analyses reflect an integrated and spatially structured industry with high levels of spatial heterogeneity. Most shipments carried young swine for feeding or breeding purposes and carried a median of 330 head (range: 1–6,500). Geographically, most shipments went to and were shipped from Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska. This work, therefore, suggests that although the swine industry is variable in terms of its size and type of swine, counties in states historically known for breeding and feeding operations are consistently more central to the shipment network.

Identifying outbreaks of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus through animal movements and spatial neighborhoods

The spread of pathogens in swine populations is in part determined by movements of animals between farms. However, understanding additional characteristics that predict disease outbreaks and uncovering landscape factors related to between-farm spread are crucial steps toward risk mitigation. This study integrates animal movements with environmental risk factors to identify the occurrence of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreaks. Using weekly farm-level incidence data from 332 sow farms, we applied machine-learning algorithms to quantify associations between risk factors and PEDV outbreaks with the ultimate goal of training predictive models and to identify the most important factors associated with PEDV occurrence. Our best algorithm was able to correctly predict whether an outbreak occurred during one-week periods with >80% accuracy. The most important predictors included pig movements into neighboring farms. Other important neighborhood attributes included hog density, environmental and weather factors such as vegetation, wind speed, temperature, and precipitation, and topographical features such as slope. Our neighborhood-based approach allowed us to simultaneously capture disease risks associated with long-distance animal movement as well as local spatial dynamics. The model presented here forms the foundation for near real-time disease mapping and will advance disease surveillance and control for endemic swine pathogens in the United States.

Stability of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus on Fomite Materials at Different Temperatures

Indirect transmission of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) ensues when susceptible animals contact PEDV-contaminated fomite materials. Although the survival of PEDV under various pHs and temperatures has been studied, virus stability on different fomite surfaces under varying temperature conditions has not been explored. Hence, we evaluated the survival of PEDV on inanimate objects routinely used on swine farms such as styrofoam, rubber, plastic, coveralls, and other equipment. The titer of infectious PEDV at 4 °C decreased by only 1 to 2 log during the first 5 days, and the virus was recoverable for up to 15 days on Styrofoam, aluminum, Tyvek^® coverall, cloth, and plastic. However, viral titers decreased precipitously when stored at room temperature; no virus was detectable after one day on all materials tested. A more sensitive immunoplaque assay was able to detect virus from Styrofoam, metal, and plastic at 20 days post application, representing a 3-log loss of input virus on fomite materials. Recovery of infectious PEDV from Tyvek^® coverall and rubber was above detection limit at 20 days. Our findings indicate that the type of fomite material and temperatures impact PEDV stability, which is important in understanding the nuances of indirect transmission and epidemiology of PEDV.

Evaluation of a peroxygen-based disinfectant for inactivation of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus at low temperatures on metal surfaces

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) spread rapidly across the United States in part due to contaminated livestock trailers. The objective of this study was to test a peroxygen-based disinfectant for the ability to inactivate PEDV on aluminum surfaces at 4 °C or -10 °C. Forty 3-week-old individually housed barrows were used as a bioassay to determine the infectivity of PEDV after treatment with either a 1:100 or 1:600 dilution of a peroxygen-based disinfectant with 10 or 30 min of contact time. One coupon matched to one pig was the experimental unit. Coupons in the positive control and disinfectant treatment groups were contaminated with 2 mL of feces spiked with PEDV. A negative control group was contaminated with PEDV-negative feces. Following treatment, the feces and disinfectant remaining in the coupons was collected and administered to pigs intragastrically. Rectal swabs were collected from pigs 3 and 7 days post-inoculation (DPI) and tested for PEDV by RT-qPCR. Samples from all coupons, except the negative control, were positive by RT-qPCR for PEDV before and after treatment. All rectal swabs from the pigs in the negative control and the seven disinfectant treatment groups were RT-qPCR negative for PEDV on 3 and 7 DPI. All pigs in the positive control at 4 °C and 3 of 4 pigs in the positive control conducted at -10 °C were RT-qPCR positive for PEDV on 3 and 7 DPI. Both the 1:100 and 1:600 dilutions of peroxygen-based disinfectant successfully inactivated PEDV under the conditions of this study.

Evaluation of biosecurity measures to prevent indirect transmission of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus

Background

The effectiveness of biosecurity methods to mitigate the transmission of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) via farm personnel or contaminated fomites is poorly understood. This study was undertaken to evaluate the effectiveness of biosecurity procedures directed at minimizing transmission via personnel following different biosecurity protocols using a controlled experimental setting.

Results

PEDV RNA was detected from rectal swabs of experimentally infected (INF) and sentinel pigs by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). Virus shedding in INF pigs peaked at 1 day post infection (dpi) and viral RNA levels remained elevated through 19 dpi. Sentinel pigs in the low biosecurity group (LB) became PEDV positive after the first movement of study personnel from the INF group. However, rectal swabs from pigs in the medium biosecurity (MB) and high biosecurity (HB) groups were negative during the 10 consecutive days of movements and remained negative through 24 days post movement (dpm) when the first trial was terminated.

Viral RNA was detected at 1 dpm through 3 dpm from the personal protective equipment (PPE) of LB personnel. In addition, at 1 dpm, 2 hair/face swabs from MB personnel were positive; however, transmission of virus was not detected. All swabs of fomite from the HB study personnel were negative.

Conclusions

These results indicate that indirect PEDV transmission through contaminated PPE occurs rapidly (within 24 h) under modeled conditions. Biosecurity procedures such as changing PPE, washing exposed skin areas, or taking a shower are recommended for pig production systems and appear to be an effective option for lowering the risk of PEDV transmission between groups of pigs.