Climate change and the ash dieback crisis

Shifts in native tree species distributions in Europe under climate change

Key European tree species are expected to contract their ranges under changing climate, thus there is a need to assess range shifts for other native tree species that could fill their forest niche. Recent studies have focused on economically important species, revealing a wide range of shifts in their distribution worldwide and highlighting several pathways for potential future changes. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat levels by the years 2041-60 and 2061-80, for 20 European temperate forest tree species under four climate change scenarios. We compared ten standard stock tree species with ten alternative stock species, that are less frequent and less preferred by managers. We combined distribution data from several sources for each tree species and developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and seven bioclimatic variables. We applied these models to projections of future climate from four global circulation models, under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and for near and middle terms: 2041-60 and 2061-80. We also assessed the relationships between predicted range contraction and their functional traits. Analysis of MaxEnt models divided the studied tree species into three groups: non-threatened (Sorbus torminalis, Ulmus minor, Tilia platyphyllos, Acer pseudoplatanus, Prunus avium, and Carpinus betulus), partially threatened (U. laevis, Betula pendula, Quercus robur, Q. petraea, A. platanoides, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, T. cordata, Alnus glutinosa, and U. glabra), and the most threatened (Abies alba, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris). For the last group, almost half of the range contraction will occur earlier (2041-2060) compared to our previous predictions (2061-2080). The proportion of range contraction decreased with increasing specific leaf area, leaf area, leaf nitrogen content, seed mass, and specific stem density while it increased with increasing height. Our study provides novel predictions of shifts in climatic optima under the most recent climate change scenarios, which would be useful for evidence-based conservation and management of European forests. The near-term predicted threats to the main standard stock tree species call for intensified preparation for incoming changes. We recommend splitting the silvicultural risks over a wider range of tree species, also including alternative stock species.

Salt Water Exposure Exacerbates the Negative Response of Phragmites australis Haplotypes to Sea-Level Rise

The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise (SLR) largely depends on the tolerance of individual plant species to inundation stress and, in brackish and freshwater wetlands, exposure to higher salinities. Phragmites australis is a cosmopolitan wetland reed that grows in saline to freshwater marshes. P. australis has many genetically distinct haplotypes, some of which are invasive and the focus of considerable research and management. However, the relative response of P. australis haplotypes to SLR is not well known, despite the importance of predicting future distribution changes and understanding its role in marsh response and resilience to SLR. Here, we use a marsh organ experiment to test how factors associated with sea level rise-inundation and seawater exposure-affect the porewater chemistry and growth response of three P. australis haplotypes along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. We planted three P. australis lineages (Delta, European, and Gulf) into marsh organs at five different elevations in channels at two locations, representing a low (Mississippi River Birdsfoot delta; 0-13 ppt) and high exposure to salinity (Mermentau basin; 6-18 ppt) for two growing seasons. Haplotypes responded differently to flooding and site conditions; the Delta haplotype was more resilient to high salinity, while the Gulf type was less susceptible to flood stress in the freshwater site. Survivorship across haplotypes after two growing seasons was 42% lower at the brackish site than at the freshwater site, associated with high salinity and sulfide concentrations. Flooding greater than 19% of the time led to lower survival across both sites linked to high concentrations of acetic acid in the porewater. Increased flood duration was negatively correlated with live aboveground biomass in the high-salinity site (χ2 = 10.37, p = 0.001), while no such relationship was detected in the low-salinity site, indicating that flood tolerance is greater under freshwater conditions. These results show that the vulnerability of all haplotypes of P. australis to rising sea levels depends on exposure to saline water and that a combination of flooding and salinity may help control invasive haplotypes.

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and plant immunity to fungal pathogens: do the risks outweigh the benefits?

Anthropogenic emissions have caused atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations to double since the industrial revolution. Although this could benefit plant growth from the 'CO2 fertilisation' effect, recent studies report conflicting impacts of elevated CO2 (eCO2) on plant-pathogen interactions. Fungal pathogens are the leading cause of plant disease. Since climate change has been shown to affect the distribution and virulence of these pathogens, it is important to understand how their plant hosts may also respond. This review assesses existing reports of positive, negative, and neutral effects of eCO2 on plant immune responses to fungal pathogen infection. The interaction between eCO2 and immunity appears specific to individual pathosystems, dependent on environmental context and driven by the interactions between plant defence mechanisms, suggesting no universal effect can be predicted for the future. This research is vital for assessing how plants may become more at risk under climate change and could help to guide biotechnological efforts to enhance resistance in vulnerable species. Despite the importance of understanding the effects of eCO2 on plant immunity for protecting global food security, biodiversity, and forests in a changing climate, many plant-pathogen interactions are yet to be investigated. In addition, further research into the effects of eCO2 in combination with other environmental factors associated with climate change is needed. In this review, we highlight the risks of eCO2 to plants and point to the research required to address current unknowns.

Towards an Understanding of Large-Scale Biodiversity Patterns on Land and in the Sea

This review presents a recent theory named ‘macroecological theory on the arrangement of life’ (METAL). This theory is based on the concept of the ecological niche and shows that the niche-environment (including climate) interaction is fundamental to explain many phenomena observed in nature from the individual to the community level (e.g., phenology, biogeographical shifts, and community arrangement and reorganisation, gradual or abrupt). The application of the theory in climate change biology as well as individual and species ecology has been presented elsewhere. In this review, I show how METAL explains why there are more species at low than high latitudes, why the peak of biodiversity is located at mid-latitudes in the oceanic domain and at the equator in the terrestrial domain, and finally why there are more terrestrial than marine species, despite the fact that biodiversity has emerged in the oceans. I postulate that the arrangement of planetary biodiversity is mathematically constrained, a constraint we previously called ‘the great chessboard of life’, which determines the maximum number of species that may colonise a given region or domain. This theory also makes it possible to reconstruct past biodiversity and understand how biodiversity could be reorganised in the context of anthropogenic climate change.

Traces of Hymenoscyphus fraxineus in Northeastern Europe Extend Further Back in History than Expected

Herbaria are a promising but still poorly applied information source for retrospective microbiological studies. In order to find any evidence of the virulent European origin of ash dieback agent Hymenoscyphus fraxineus and other fungal pathogens, we analyzed 109 leaf samples from three different Estonian botanical herbaria, sampled during 171 years from 20 ash species and cultivars, using a PacBio third-generation sequencing of the fungal internal transcribed spacer ITS1-5.8S-ITS2 ribosomal DNA region. We identified a large amount of saprotrophic fungi naturally colonizing ash leaves. Hymenoscyphus fraxineus colonized a Fraxinus chinensis subsp. rhynchophylla specimen and a F. chinensis specimen collected from Tallinn Botanic Garden in July 1978 and July 1992, respectively. The samples originated from trees grown in this garden from seeds collected from Shamora, Far-East Russia, in 1961 and from a Beijing botanical garden in eastern China in 1985, respectively. Repeated subsequent DNA extraction, real-time quantitative PCR, and Sanger and Illumina sequencing confirmed our findings of these apparently oldest cases of the ash dieback agent in Europe. These results show that H. fraxineus evidently was present in Estonia 19 years earlier than our previous data from fungal herbaria documented and 14 years before the first visible damage of ash trees was registered in Poland. Because we found no evidence of the saprotrophic H. albidus from earlier mycological and botanical herbarium specimens, the presence of H. albidus in Estonia remains questionable.

Predicted range shifts of invasive giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum) in Europe

Heracleum mantegazzianum Sommier & Levier (Giant hogweed) has spread across Europe after its introduction as an ornamental from the native range in the Western Greater Caucasus. In addition to its invasive capability, H. mantegazzianum reduces the alpha diversity of native species in the non-native range and can cause second-degree burns when its phytotoxic sap contacts the skin upon exposure to sunlight. Previous studies on H. mantegazzianum distribution focused on individual countries, therefore we know little about the potential shift of the species distribution under changing climate at the continental scale. To fill that gap in the current knowledge, we aimed to (i) identify the most important climatic factors for the distribution of H. mantegazzianum in Europe, (ii) recognize areas that will be suitable and unsuitable for future climate scenarios to prioritize management action. Our study showed that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11) and temperature annual range (bio7) were the most important bioclimatic variables predicting the suitable habitat of the species in Europe. For all scenarios, we found that the majority of the range changes expected by 2100 will occur as early as 2041. We predicted an overall decrease in climatically suitable area for H. mantegazzianum under climate change with over three quarters (i.e. 94%) of the suitable area reduced under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 585 in 2100. However, under the same scenario, climate conditions will likely favour the expansion (i.e. 20%) of H. mantegazzianum in northern Europe. The results from the present study will help in developing a climate change-integrated management strategy, most especially in northern Europe where range expansion is predicted.

Seasonal and long-term consequences of esca grapevine disease on stem xylem integrity

Hydraulic failure has been extensively studied during drought-induced plant dieback, but its role in plant-pathogen interactions is under debate. During esca, a grapevine (Vitis vinifera) disease, symptomatic leaves are prone to irreversible hydraulic dysfunctions but little is known about the hydraulic integrity of perennial organs over the short- and long-term. We investigated the effects of esca on stem hydraulic integrity in naturally infected plants within a single season and across season(s). We coupled direct (ks) and indirect (kth) hydraulic conductivity measurements, and tylose and vascular pathogen detection with in vivo X-ray microtomography visualizations. Xylem occlusions (tyloses) and subsequent loss of stem hydraulic conductivity (ks) occurred in all shoots with severe symptoms (apoplexy) and in more than 60% of shoots with moderate symptoms (tiger-stripe), with no tyloses in asymptomatic shoots. In vivo stem observations demonstrated that tyloses occurred only when leaf symptoms appeared, and resulted in more than 50% loss of hydraulic conductance in 40% of symptomatic stems, unrelated to symptom age. The impact of esca on xylem integrity was only seasonal, with no long-term impact of disease history. Our study demonstrated how and to what extent a vascular disease such as esca, affecting xylem integrity, could amplify plant mortality through hydraulic failure.

The Endophytic Mycobiome of European Ash and Sycamore Maple Leaves - Geographic Patterns, Host Specificity and Influence of Ash Dieback

The European ash (Fraxinus excelsior) is threatened by the introduced ascomycete Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, the causal agent of ash dieback. Endophytic fungi are known to modulate their host's resistance against pathogens. To understand possible consequences of ash dieback on the endophytic mycobiome, F. excelsior leaves were collected in naturally regenerated forests and the fungal communities analyzed by classic culture and Illumina amplicon sequencing using a newly developed and validated fungal-specific primer. Collections were done in the area infested by ash dieback north of the Alps, and in the disease free area on the south side. Sycamore maple (Acer pseudoplatanus) was additionally collected, as well as the flowering ash (F. ornus), which occurs naturally in the south and shows tolerance to ash dieback. Both cultivation and amplicon sequencing revealed characteristic endophytic fungal communities dominated by several strictly host specific Venturia species. On A. pseudoplatanus, a hitherto undescribed Venturia species was identified. Due to its dominance on F. excelsior, V. fraxini is unlikely to go extinct in case of reduced host densities. A majority of species was not strictly host specific and is therefore likely less affected by ash dieback in the future. Still, shifts in community structure and loss of genetic diversity cannot be excluded. The potentially endangered endophyte Hymenoscyphus albidus was rarely found. In addition to host specificity, species with preferences for leaf laminae or petioles were found. We also detected considerable geographical variation between sampling sites and clear differences between the two sides of the Alps for endophytes of F. excelsior, but not A. pseudoplatanus. Since sycamore maple is not affected by an epidemic, this could point toward an influence of ash dieback on ash communities, although firm conclusions are not possible because of host preferences and climatic differences. Furthermore, the mycobiota of F. excelsior trees with or without dieback symptoms were compared, but no clear differences were detected. Besides methodical refinement, our study provides comprehensive data on the ash mycobiome that we expect to be subject to changes caused by an emerging disease of the host tree.

Propagule Pressure Build-Up by the Invasive Hymenoscyphus fraxineus Following Its Introduction to an Ash Forest Inhabited by the Native Hymenoscyphus albidus

Dieback of European ash, caused by the ascomycete Hymenoscyphus fraxineus originating from Asia, has rapidly spread across Europe, and is threatening this keystone tree at a continental scale. High propagule pressure is characteristic to invasive species. Consistently, the enormous production of windborne ascospores by H. fraxineus in an ash forest with epidemic level of disease obviously facilitates its invasiveness and long distance spread. To understand the rate of build-up of propagule pressure by this pathogen following its local introduction, during 2011-2017 we monitored its sporulation at a newly infested ash stand in south-western Norway characterized with mild winters and cool summers. We also monitored the propagule pressure by Hymenoscyphus albidus, a non-pathogenic native species that competes for the same sporulation niche with H. fraxineus. During the monitoring period, crown condition of ash trees had impaired, and 20% of the dominant trees were severely damaged in 2017. H. fraxineus showed an exponential increase in spore production between 2012 and 2015, followed by drastic decline in 2016 and 2017. During 2011-2013, the two Hymenoscyphus species showed similar sporulation level, but thereafter spores of H. albidus were no longer detected. The data suggest that following local introduction, the population of H. fraxineus reaches rapidly an exponential growth stage if the local weather conditions are favorable for ascomata maturation across years. In the North Atlantic climate, summer temperatures critically influence the pathogen infection pressure, warm summers allowing the population to grow according to its biotic potential, whereas cold summers can cause a drastic decline in propagule pressure.