The impact of esophagogastric varices on the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Development and validation of a score model for predicting the risk of first esophagogastric variceal hemorrhage and mortality in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

AIMS

Esophagogastric variceal bleeding, especially first variceal hemorrhage, represents a challenging complication in the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and its presence significantly herald poor patient prognosis. The stratification system for the risk of first variceal hemorrhage and mortality has not been validated in patients with HCC. We aimed to develop and validate a simple score for the prediction of initial variceal bleeding and mortality in patients with HCC.

METHODS

This multicenter retrospective-prospective study included HCC patients at three tertiary hospitals in China from January 2016 to December 2023. The bleeding following endoscopy for hepatocellular carcinoma (BFE-HCC) score was constructed by the least absolute contraction and selection operator (LASSO) regression combined with multivariate logistic regression analysis. The performance of the score model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, the of the results was further verified in an independent external cohort.

RESULTS

We recruited 351 patients from three centers (median age 56 years, 85.5% male and 83.5% with cirrhosis), 56.6% patients presented high-risk (HR) varices, and 35% patients experienced variceal bleeding. Multivariate logistic analysis revealed that the presence of cirrhosis, a history of acute variceal bleeding (AVB), Child-Pugh score, ALBI score, tumor size and portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) Vp4 were independent predictors of HR varices. The BFE-HCC is composed of six variables: white blood cell count, HR varices, Child-Pugh score, HCC therapy modality, Vp4, and tumor stage. The area under the curve (AUC) of BFE-HCC was 0.82, and the calibration plots and decision curve analysis exhibited outstanding performance compared with the MELD, ALBI, and Child-Pugh scores. In addition, Patients with BFE-HCC ≥ 4 were at increased risk of mortality (P<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The BFE-HCC score is hopeful to predict initial variceal bleeding and mortality in patients with HCC, offering a promising tool for prognostic assessment and treatment decisions.

Conventional and machine learning-based risk scores for patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The performance of machine learning (ML) in predicting the outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain. We aimed to develop risk scores using conventional methods and ML to categorize early-stage HCC patients into distinct prognostic groups.

METHODS

The study retrospectively enrolled 1,411 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0 to A HCC from 2012 to 2021. The patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=988) and validation cohort (n=423). Two risk scores (CATS-IF and CATS-INF) were developed to predict overall survival (OS) in the training cohort using the conventional methods (Cox proportional hazards model) and ML-based methods (LASSO Cox regression), respectively. They were then validated and compared in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, factors for the CATS-IF score were selected by the conventional method, including age, curative treatment, single large HCC, serum creatinine and alpha-fetoprotein levels, fibrosis-4 score, lymphocyte-tomonocyte ratio, and albumin-bilirubin grade. The CATS-INF score, determined by ML-based methods, included the above factors and two additional ones (aspartate aminotransferase and prognostic nutritional index). In the validation cohort, both CATS-IF score and CATS-INF score outperformed other modern prognostic scores in predicting OS, with the CATSINF score having the lowest Akaike information criterion value. A calibration plot exhibited good correlation between predicted and observed outcomes for both scores.

CONCLUSION

Both the conventional Cox-based CATS-IF score and ML-based CATS-INF score effectively stratified patients with early-stage HCC into distinct prognostic groups, with the CATS-INF score showing slightly superior performance.

Prognostic Nutritional Index as a Prognostic Factor for Very Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Field factors play more important roles in predicting the outcomes of patients compared with tumor factors in early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the prognostic ability of noninvasive serum marker scores for hepatic fibrosis and liver functional reserve on very early-stage HCC is still not yet determined. We aimed to investigate the performance of these serum marker scores in predicting the prognoses of patients with very early-stage HCC.

METHODS

A total of 446 patients with very early-stage HCC from 2012 to 2022 were retrospectively enrolled. Serum biomarkers and prognostic scores determining overall survival (OS) were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards model. We compared the Akaike information criterion among the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, EZ (easy)-ALBI score, modified ALBI score, fibrosis-4 score, and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio to determine the predictability on the OS.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 41.0 months (interquartile range 36.9-45.1 months), 81 patients died, with a 5-year OS rate of 71.0%. Among the noninvasive serum marker scores, PNI had the best performance in predicting the OS with the lowest Akaike information criterion (846.407) compared with other scores. Moreover, we stratified the patients into high-risk (PNI <45) and low-risk (PNI ≥45) groups. It showed that the 5-year OS rates were 83.4% and 60.8% in the low-risk and high-risk PNI groups, respectively ( P < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

PNI had the best performance in predicting the OS for patients with very early-stage HCC.

The outcomes and prognostic factors of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and Child-Turcotte-Pugh class B

BACKGROUND

The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is widely used for assessing the liver's functional reserve in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aims to explore the outcomes of patients with HCC and CTP class B and to investigate the prognostic accuracy of prediction models for ACLD in these patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 1143 patients with HCC and CTP class B between 2007 and 2022. We divided the patients into three subgroups based on their CTP scores: CTP-B7, CTP-B8, and CTP-B9. We compared the corrected Akaike information criterion among each mortality prediction model, including the CTP score, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, modified ALBI score, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD 3.0.

RESULTS

Among the enrolled patients, 576 (50.3%) were in the CTP-B7 group, 363 (31.8%) were in the CTP-B8 group, and 204 (17.9%) were in the CTP-B9 group. After a median follow-up of 4.6 months (interquartile range IQR 1.8-17.2 months), 963 patients died, and the 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 11.4%. The 5-year OS rates were 11.6%, 13.6%, and 8.3% in the CTP-B7, CTP-B8, and CTP-B9 groups, respectively. Patients in the CTP-B7 group and CTP-B8 group had comparable OS ( p = 0.089), both of which were better than those in the CTP-B9 group ( p < 0.001). Furthermore, the MELD 3.0 score had the lowest corrected akaike information criteria value and provided a more accurate mortality prediction than the MELD score, ALBI grade, modified ALBI grade, and CTP score.

CONCLUSION

Patients in the CTP-B7 and CTP-B8 groups had comparable OS, both of which were better than those in the CTP-B9 group. Moreover, MELD 3.0 provided the most accurate mortality prediction in patients with HCC and CTP class B.

Assessing the effectiveness of camrelizumab plus apatinib versus sorafenib for the treatment of primary liver cancer: a single-center retrospective study

Although the effectiveness of camrelizumab plus apatinib has been confirmed in a phase II clinical study, the efficacy of camrelizumab plus apatinib versus sorafenib for primary liver cancer (PLC) remains unverified. We retrospectively collected the data of 143 patients with PLC who received camrelizumab plus apatinib or sorafenib as the first-line treatment at The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from April 2018 to November 2021. Of these, 71 patients received an intravenous injection of camrelizumab 200 mg (body weight ≥ 50 kg) or 3 mg/kg (body weight < 50 kg) followed by an oral dosage of apatinib 250 mg/day every 3 weeks and 72 patients received sorafenib 400 mg orally, twice a day in 28-day cycles. The primary outcomes were overall survival and progression-free survival. The secondary outcomes were objective response rate, disease control rate, and safety. The median median progression-free survival and median overall survival with camrelizumab plus apatinib and sorafenib were 6.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.2-7.8) and 3.0 months (95% CI 2.3-3.7) and 19.0 (95% CI 16.4-21.6) and 12.0 months (95% CI 8.9-15.1), respectively (death hazard ratio: 0.61, P = 0.023). Grade 3/4 treatment-related adverse events were noted in 50 (70.4%) patients in the camrelizumab plus apatinib group and 19 (26.4%) patients in the sorafenib group. Two treatment-related deaths were recorded. Clinically significant improvements were observed in overall survival and progression-free survival with camrelizumab plus apatinib versus sorafenib. Although the side effects of camrelizumab plus apatinib are relatively high, they can be controlled.

Insight into increased risk of portal vein thrombosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the leading chronic liver diseases with increased morbidity and mortality rates for extrahepatic diseases (including cardiovascular disease, portal vein thrombosis, etc.). There is an increased risk of thrombosis in both the portal and systemic circulation in patients with NAFLD, independent of traditional liver cirrhosis. However, increased portal pressure, the most critical factor, is frequently observed in NAFLD patients, predisposing them to portal vein thrombosis (PVT). It has been reported that there is an 8.5% incidence of PVT among patients with non-cirrhotic NAFLD in a prospective cohort study. Based on the prothrombotic status of NAFLD itself, patients combined with cirrhosis may accelerate the development of PVT and lead to a poor prognosis. Moreover, PVT has been shown to complicate the procedure and adversely affect the outcome during liver transplantation surgery. NAFLD is in a prothrombotic state, and its underlying mechanisms have not been fully understood so far. Particularly noteworthy is that gastroenterologists currently overlook the higher risk of PVT in NAFLD. We investigate the pathogenesis of NAFLD complicated with PVT from the perspective of primary, secondary, and tertiary hemostasis, and also summarize relevant studies in humans. Some treatment options that may affect NAFLD and its PVT are also explored to improve patient-oriented outcomes.

Baveno VII Criteria Is an Accurate Risk Stratification Tool to Predict High-Risk Varices Requiring Intervention and Hepatic Events in Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

The Baveno VII criteria are used in patients with liver cirrhosis to predict high-risk varices in patients with liver cirrhosis. Yet its use in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been validated. HCC alone is accompanied with a higher variceal bleeding risk due to its association with liver cirrhosis and portal vein thrombosis. The use of systemic therapy in advanced HCC has been thought to further augment this risk. Upper endoscopy is commonly used to evaluate for the presence of varices before initiation of treatment with systemic therapy. Yet it is associated with procedural risks, waiting time and limited availability in some localities which may delay the commencement of systemic therapy. Our study successfully validated the Baveno VI criteria with a 3.5% varices needing treatment (VNT) missed rate, also with acceptable <5% VNT missed rates when considering alternative liver stiffness (LSM) and platelet cut-offs. The Baveno VII clinically significant portal hypertension rule-out criteria (LSM < 15 kPa and platelet >150 × 10⁹/L) also revealed a low frequency (2%) of hepatic events, whilst the rule-in criteria (LSM > 25 kPa) was predictive of a higher proportion of hepatic events (14%). Therefore, our study has successfully validated the Baveno VII criteria as a non-invasive stratification of the risk of variceal bleeding and hepatic decompensation in the HCC population.

Intensity-modulated radiotherapy combined with systemic atezolizumab and bevacizumab in treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma with extrahepatic portal vein tumor thrombus: A preliminary multicenter single-arm prospective study

Background and aims

The efficacy and safety of systemic atezolizumab and bevacizumab (atezo/bev) in treatment of patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been demonstrated. However, the efficacy of this treatment in patients with HCC and extrahepatic portal vein tumor thrombus (ePVTT) is not satisfactory. This study aimed to study the efficacy and safety of combining intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) with systemic atezo/bev in treatment of these patients.

Methods

This multicenter prospective study included patients with ePVTT treated with IMRT combined with atezo/bev from March to September 2021 in three centers in China. The outcomes of this study included objective response rate (ORR), overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), time to progression (TTP), and association between response and tumor mutational burden (TMB). Treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) were analyzed to assess safety.

Results

Of 30 patients in this study, the median follow-up was 7.4 months. Based on the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) version 1.1, the ORR was 76.6%, the median OS for the entire cohort was 9.8 months, the median PFS was 8.0 months, and the median TTP was not reached. This study failed to establish a significant correlation between TMB with any of the following outcomes, including ORR, OS, PFS or TTP. The most common TRAEs at all levels were neutropenia (46.7%), and the most common grade 3/4 TRAE was hypertension (16.7%). There was no treatment-related deaths.

Conclusions

IMRT combined with atezo/bev showed encouraging treatment efficacy with an acceptable safety profile, making this treatment to be a promising option for HCC patients with ePVTT. Further studies are required to support the findings of this preliminary study.

Clinical trial registration

http://www.chictr.org.cn, Identifier ChiCTR2200061793.

The efficacy of contrast-enhanced computed tomography on the management of gastroesophageal varices in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

The screening of gastroesophageal varices (GEV) is critical in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) management. Contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) is often performed in patients with HCC. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the use of CECT in screening for GEV and predicting GEV bleeding. This retrospective study enrolled 312 consecutive patients who are initially diagnosed with HCC, measured the lower esophageal (EIV) and fundal intramural vessel (FIV) diameter on CECT, examined the changes after 1, 2, and 3 years, and verified the relationship with GEV bleeding. The EIV and FIV diameter on CECT correlates well with endoscopic variceal classification. EIV significantly worsened after 2 and 3 years. FIV showed worsening at both 1, 2, and 3 years. Cumulative GEV bleeding rates were 3.7% at 1 year and 6.2% at 3 years. The multivariate analysis revealed that EIV, FIV, and portal vein tumor thrombus were associated with GEV bleeding. Furthermore, EIV deterioration at 1, 2, and 3 years correlated with GEV bleeding. In conclusion, CECT is useful in variceal management during the longitudinal clinical course of HCC, and has the potential to decrease screening endoscopy. With deterioration in EIV, treatments should be considered due to a high-risk GEV bleeding.

Comparison of prognoses between cirrhotic and noncirrhotic patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and esophageal varices undergoing surgical resection

BACKGROUND

Esophageal varices (EV) is common and is a poor prognostic factor for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the outcomes between cirrhotic and noncirrhotic HCC patients with EV is not well studied. The present study aimed to investigate the clinical manifestations and prognoses of HCC patients after surgical resection stratified by the cirrhosis status.

METHODS

A total of 111 patients with HCC and EV, who underwent surgical resection, were retrospectively enrolled between July 2003 and July 2019. The diagnosis of liver cirrhosis was established using the Ishak fibrosis score F5 or F6 in the nontumor part of liver specimens. Prognostic factors were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

There were 85 (76.6%) and 26 (23.4%) patients with and without cirrhosis, respectively. Compared with those without cirrhosis, there were more females, less seropositive rate of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), more seropositive rate of antibody against to hepatitis C virus (HCV), less albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 1, lower platelet count, and more had tumor burden within the Milan criteria in cirrhotic patients. Cirrhotic patients had a higher risk of posthepatectomy decompensation compared to noncirrhotic patients (hazard ratio 9.577, p = 0.017). No difference was observed in overall survival and recurrence-free survival between patients with or without cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

Compared with patients without cirrhosis, cirrhotic patients with HCC and EV are vulnerable to posthepatectomy decompensation. However, cirrhosis is not a poor prognostic factor of overall survival and recurrence for HCC patients after surgical resection.

Differential prognoses among male and female patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is significantly higher in men than women. Nonetheless, the impact of sex disparities on HCC outcomes remains unclear. We aimed to compare the clinical manifestations and prognoses between male and female patients with HCC.

METHODS

This retrospective study enrolled 5337 consecutive patients (3976 men, 1361 women) who were diagnosed with HCC from 2007 to 2020. The prognostic factors were identified by the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Male patients were younger upon HCC diagnosis (median age 64 vs 69 years; p < 0.001) with more favorable hepatic functional reserves (39.0% vs 35.1% albumin-bilirubin grade 1; p = 0.025) but had greater tumor burdens than the female patients. Furthermore, fewer male patients underwent curative therapies for HCC compared with the female patients (49.0% vs 57.0%; p < 0.001). After a median follow-up of 20.1 months (interquartile range, 5.8-47.3 months), 3133 patients died. The cumulative 5-year overall survival rates were 37.1% and 41.9% for male and female patients, respectively (p < 0.001). From the multivariate analysis, male sex was not an independent factor predictive of poor overall survival in all patients and in the subgroup analysis stratified by treatment modalities. When stratified by age, the female sex was an independent factor associated with lower mortality in younger (≤50 years) patients but not in older patients with HCC.

CONCLUSION

Sex was not an independent predictor of the outcome of patients with HCC, especially for those aged more than 50 years.

Efficacy and safety of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab in Korean patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Ate/Bev) has demonstrated efficacy and safety in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the phase III trial. Further evaluation is necessary to investigate the safety and efficacy of Ate/Bev in real settings.

METHODS

This was a multicentre retrospective analysis. Between May 2020 and February 2021, 138 patients received Ate/Bev as first-line treatment for advanced HCC from 11 institutions. We excluded patients with Child-Pugh B or C and BCLC D stage, and the remaining 121 patients were included in this analysis.

RESULTS

According to RECIST 1.1, the objective response and disease control rates were 24.0% and 76.0%. The median follow-up duration was 5.9 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.4-6.4), the median progression-free survival (PFS) was 6.5 months (95% CI, 4.1-9.0), and median overall survival (OS) was not reached (95% CI, not available). The most frequent grade 3-4 adverse event was aspartate aminotransferase elevation (10.7%). In the multivariate analyses, AFP increase (P = .037), baseline neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) ≥ 5 (P = .023), and best response to stable disease or progressive disease (P = .019) were significantly associated with worse PFS. Macrovascular invasion (P = .048) and baseline NLR ≥5 (P < .001) were significantly associated with worse OS.

CONCLUSIONS

Ate/Bev showed real-life efficacy and safety in Korean patients with advanced HCC, in line with results from phase III trial. Considering unfavourable survival outcomes of Ate/Bev in patients with elevated NLR, careful assessment of treatment response needs to be performed in this group.

Impact of acute decompensation on the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background/Aims

Organ failure in patients with acute decompensation (AD) is a defining characteristic of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the clinical features of AD during the long-term clinical course of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are still poorly understood. This study aimed to clarify features and impact of AD/ACLF on the prognosis of patients after treatment for HCC.

Methods

This retrospective study enrolled 556 consecutive patients who were initially diagnosed with HCC, and analyses were conducted taking into account HCC treatment type, HCC stage, and presence or absence of cirrhosis.

Results

During follow-up, 299 patients with AD were hospitalized. AD occurrence is closely related to prognosis, regardless of the presence or absence of cirrhosis and HCC stage, and early-onset AD (within 90 days after HCC treatment) has negative impact on prognosis. In the intermediate-advanced–stage group, surgical resection had a positive impact on AD incidence post-treatment. After systemic therapy for HCC, renal impairment was the predictive factors for AD development. The 28/90-day mortality rate was higher among 41 cases (13.7%) with AD who exhibited ACLF as compared with cases without ACLF. AD without cirrhosis had similar ACLF incidence and short-term mortality, compared to AD with cirrhosis. The prognostic model using a decision-tree–based approach, which includes ACLF, bilirubin level, HCC progression, and MELD score is useful for predicting 90- or 28-day mortality after AD diagnosis.

Conclusions

Careful management of patients with HCC who are hospitalized with AD is necessary, considering ACLF, HCC progression, and liver function.

Variceal bleeding is aggravated by portal venous invasion of hepatocellular carcinoma: a matched nested case-control study

Background

We hypothesized that portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) increases portal pressure and causes esophageal varices and variceal bleedings. We examined the incidence of high-risk varices and variceal bleeding and determined the indications for variceal screening and prophylaxis.

Methods

This study included 1709 asymptomatic patients without any prior history of variceal hemorrhage or endoscopic prophylaxis who underwent upper endoscopy within 30 days before or after initial anti-HCC treatment. Of these patients, 206 had PVTT, and after 1:2 individual matching, 161 of them were matched with 309 patients without PVTT. High-risk varices were defined as large/medium varices or small varices with red-color signs and variceal bleeding. Bleeding rates from the varices were compared between matched pairs. Risk factors for variceal bleeding in the entire set of patients with PVTT were also explored.

Results

In the matched-pair analysis, the proportion of high-risk varices at screening (23.0% vs. 13.3%; P = 0.003) and the cumulative rate of variceal bleeding (4.5% vs. 0.4% at 1 year; P = 0.009) were significantly greater in the PVTT group. Prolonged prothrombin time, lower platelet count, presence of extrahepatic metastasis, and Vp4 PVTT were independent risk factors related to high-risk varices in the total set of 206 patients with PVTT (Adjusted odds ratios [95% CIs], 1.662 [1.151–2.401]; 0.985 [0.978–0.993]; 4.240 [1.783–10.084]; and 3.345 [1.457–7.680], respectively; Ps < 0.05). During a median follow-up of 43.2 months, 10 patients with PVTT experienced variceal bleeding episodes, 9 of whom (90%) had high-risk varices. Presence of high-risk varices and sorafenib use for HCC treatment were significant predictors of variceal bleeding in the complete set of patients with PVTT (Adjusted hazard ratios [95% CIs], 26.432 [3.230–216.289]; and 5.676 [1.273–25.300], respectively; Ps < 0.05).

Conclusions

PVTT in HCC appears to increase the likelihood of high-risk varices and variceal bleeding. In HCC patients with PVTT, endoscopic prevention could be considered, at least in high-risk variceal carriers taking sorafenib.

Endoscopic ultrasound-guided cyanoacrylate injection to prevent rebleeding in hepatocellular carcinoma patients with variceal hemorrhage

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Secondary prophylaxis (SP) of variceal rebleeding was reported to improve outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, but the optimal endoscopic approach is not well defined. We compared outcomes in HCC patients who underwent SP by endoscopic ultrasound-guided cyanoacrylate obturation (EUS-CYA) versus no SP.

METHODS

Between 2014 and 2018, 30 consecutive patients with inoperable HCC and recent endoscopically controlled variceal bleeding were prospectively recruited. Twenty-seven patients with persistent varices ≥ 3 mm on endoscopic ultrasound underwent EUS-CYA for SP. Thirty-three HCC patients treated by esophagogastroduodenoscopy-guided CYA obturation (EGD-CYA) alone for acute variceal bleeding between 2009 and 2013 were identified from a prospective gastrointestinal bleed registry as standard of care controls for comparison. Outcome measures were death-adjusted cumulative incidence of rebleeding, bleeding-free survival, technical success, and procedure-related adverse events of EUS-CYA.

RESULTS

The majority of patients in both groups had advanced HCC, portal vein thrombosis, and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis. EUS-CYA was successful in all 27 patients with no radiographic evidence of cyanoacrylate-lipiodol embolization. Significantly lower 30- and 90-day death-adjusted cumulative incidence of rebleeding (14.8% vs 42.4%, P = 0.023 and 18.5% vs 60.6%, P = 0.002, respectively) and significantly higher variceal bleeding-free survival at 3 and 6 months (51.9% vs 21.2%, P = 0.009, 40.7% vs 15.2%, P = 0.010, respectively) were observed in the EUS-CYA group when compared with standard of care group.

CONCLUSIONS

Secondary prophylaxis by EUS-CYA reduced rebleeding rate and improved variceal bleeding-free survival in patients with inoperable HCC and variceal bleeding when compared with no SP. Randomized studies are needed to confirm the benefits of EUS-CYA for this difficult-to-treat population.

A comparison of prognoses between surgical resection and radiofrequency ablation therapy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and esophagogastric varices

There has been insufficient investigation of the differences in long-term outcomes between surgical resection (SR) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and esophagogastric varices (EGV). We retrospectively enrolled 251 patients with treatment-naïve HCC and EGV who underwent SR or RFA as a first-line treatment. Prognostic factors were analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model. A total of 68 patients underwent SR, and the remaining 183 patients received RFA. Patients who underwent SR were younger, had better liver functional reserves, and had larger tumors. After a median follow-up duration of 45.1 months, 151 patients died. The cumulative 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was significantly higher among patients who underwent SR than those treated with RFA (66.7% vs. 36.8%, p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that age > 65 years, multiple tumors, RFA, albumin bilirubin grade > 1, and the occurrence of major peri-procedural morbidity were the independent risk factors that are predictive of poor OS. In conclusion, SR could be recommended as a first-line treatment modality for HCC patients with EGV if the patients are carefully selected and liver function is well preserved.

The indocyanine green retention test as a noninvasive marker for esophageal varices in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The indocyanine green 15-minute retention (ICG-r15) test was considered as a noninvasive marker of esophageal varices (EV) in cirrhotic patients. However, the performance of ICG-r15 in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has rarely been assessed. The aim of this study is to evaluate the value of ICG-r15 as a noninvasive marker of EV in patients with HCC.

METHODS

From October 2007 to December 2018, the study retrospectively enrolled 137 HCC patients with compensated hepatic function who received ICG-r15 tests and endoscopy screening for EV. The predictive value of the ICG-r15 test and other noninvasive markers was also evaluated for the diagnosis of EV, including the aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/alanine aminotransferase ratio, platelet count/spleen diameter ratio, AST/platelet ratio index, Lok index, FIB-4, and Park index.

RESULTS

In the study cohort, 30 (21.9%) patients had EV. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for determining EV by ICG-r15 was 0.784 (95% CI: 0.686-0.881, -2 ln (L): 77.889, Akaike information criterion: 79.889), and it had the best predictive value compared with other noninvasive markers. The cutoff value of ICG-r15 to identify EV was 31.0%, and it had 40.0% sensitivity and 98.1% specificity. The cutoff value to exclude EV was 9.5% with 86.7% sensitivity and 50.5% specificity. In the multivariate analysis, ICG-r15 (odds ratio [OR]: 1.062, 1.014-1.114; p = 0.015) and the Park index (OR: 1.535, 1.091-2.159; p = 0.014) were independently related to the presence of EV.

CONCLUSION

ICG-r15 is a practical noninvasive marker with cutoff values of 9.5% for excluding EV and 31.0% for identifying EV in patients with HCC.

Comparison of prognosis between surgical resection and transarterial chemoembolization for patients with solitary huge hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

For patients with solitary huge (>10 cm in size) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and without major vascular invasion, the treatment efficacy between surgical resection (SR) and transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is not well studied. We aimed to compare the prognoses between SR and TACE for patients with solitary huge HCC.

Methods

We enrolled 143 patients with treatment-naïve, solitary HCC (>10 cm) who had received either SR or TACE treatment between 2007–2016. Factors of overall survival (OS) were analyzed by multivariate analysis. Propensity scores matching (PSM) method was adopted to adjust baseline demographic differences for further analysis.

Results

Ninety patients underwent SR and 53 patients received TACE. After a median follow-up of 17.0 (interquartile range 7.7–45.6) months, 83 patients had died. The cumulative 5-year OS rate was 44.7% and 11.7% for the SR group and the TACE group, respectively (P<0.001). A multivariate analysis showed that TACE [hazard ratio (HR): 3.515, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.202–5.610, P<0.001], and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade >1 (HR: 2.181, 95% CI: 1.343–3.543, P=0.002) were the independent risk factors associated with poorer OS. After PSM, 37 pairs of matched patients were selected from each treatment arm. After matching, patients who underwent SR still evinced a significantly higher OS than did those who underwent TACE (P=0.010).

Conclusions

SR provided a better OS than did TACE for patients with solitary huge (≥10 cm) HCC. As such, SR is recommended as the therapeutic priority for these patients.

The incidence and predictors of post transarterial chemoembolization variceal bleeding in hepatocellular carcinoma patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the standard of care for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. Variceal bleeding is a life-threatening complication and may alter the initial treatment plan. This study was aimed to elucidate the risk factors for variceal bleeding in HCC patients receiving TACE treatment.

METHODS

From 2005 to 2016, a total of 1233 treatment-naive HCC patients receiving first time TACE treatment in Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Linkou medical center were recruited. Pre-TACE status including baseline characteristics, prior history of ascites, and parameters for liver function evaluation were analyzed. All the variables were compared between patients with and without variceal bleeding.

RESULTS

Among the 1233 patients, the median age was 63.7 (range 25.8-91.5) years old, and 73.5% were male. Variceal bleeding events were documented in 19 patients (1.5%) within 3 months post TACE treatment. Patients with younger age, cirrhosis, pre-treatment ascites and advanced fibrosis status (higher MELD score, CTP score, ALBI grade, FIB-4 and APRI score) were more likely to encounter post-treatment variceal bleeding. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed existence of ascites (adjusted HR: 4.859 (1.947-12.124), p = 0.001), and higher FIB-4 score (adjusted HR: 4.481 (1.796-11.179), p = 0.001) were the independent predictive factors for variceal bleeding. Patients with post-TACE variceal bleeding are more likely to encounter tumor progression (42.1% vs. 20.3%, p = 0.039) and mortality owing to GI bleeding (15.8% vs. 3%, p = 0.032).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of post-TACE variceal bleeding was 1.5%. Patients with post-TACE variceal bleeding have poorer TACE treatment response. The pre-treatment ascites and FIB-4 score are the independent predictors for post-TACE variceal bleeding.

Esophageal varices are not predictive of patient prognosis after surgical resection of hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

The predictive value of esophageal varices (EV) in determining the patient outcome in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unresolved. We aimed to assess the impact of EV on the prognosis of HCC patients after surgical resection.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We consecutively enrolled 446 treatment-naive HCC patients who underwent surgical resection and esophagogastroduodenoscopy from 2003 to 2015. Prognostic factors were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards model and a propensity score matching analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 89 (20.0%) HCC patients presented with EV. Compared with those without EV, patients with EV had poorer preservation of liver function and higher rates of cirrhosis in the nontumor part of liver specimens. After a median follow-up period of 34.6 months (25-75 percentiles; 12.8-59.3 months), 130 patients had died. The cumulative 5-year overall survival (OS) rates were 62.3 and 70.6% in patients with and without EV, respectively (P=0.102). A multivariate analysis showed that serum albumin level less than or equal to 4 g/dl (P=0.020), α-fetoprotein level greater than 20 ng/ml (P<0.001), as well as the presence of vascular invasion (P<0.001), but not the presence of EV, were independent risk factors associated with poor OS. Moreover, 67 patients were matched in each group using the one-to-one nearest-neighbor matching method. After matching, the OS rates were comparable between HCC patients with and without EV.

CONCLUSION

EV is not an independent risk factor predictive of poor prognosis for HCC patients after resection surgery if they have well-preserved liver function.

The Prognosis of Single Large Hepatocellular Carcinoma Was Distinct from Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stage A or B: The Role of Albumin-Bilirubin Grade

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Whether single large hepatocellular carcinoma (SLHCC) is classified as Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage A or B is still controversial. We aimed to compare the clinical manifestations, treatment modalities, and prognoses among patients with SLHCC and those in BCLC stage A and B.

METHODS

We enrolled 2,285 treatment-naive hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with BCLC stage A or B from October 2007 to December 2015. Factors in terms of prognoses were analyzed by multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

We enrolled 1,210, 466, and 609 patients in a BCLC-A, SLHCC, and BCLC-B group, respectively. After a median follow-up duration of 21.2 months, 898 patients had died. The cumulative 5-year survival rates were 57.0, 42.6, and 27.3% for patients in the BCLC-A, SLHCC, and BCLC-B groups, respectively, which were significantly different (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis indicated that the following independent risk factors were associated with poor prognosis: age > 65 years, alkaline phosphatase > 100 U/L, creatinine > 1.0 mg/dL, alpha-fetoprotein > 20 mg/mL, noncurative treatment, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, and HCC staging. Subgroup analysis also confirmed that patients in the SLHCC group had a survival rate intermediate to those in the BCLC-A and BCLC-B groups. However, for patients in the SLHCC group and with ALBI grade 1, outcomes were close to those in the BCLC-A group, especially in the setting of curative treatment. For those with ALBI grades 2 or 3, the prognoses were similar to those of the SLHCC and BCLC-B groups.

CONCLUSION

Patients in the SLHCC group had an overall survival rate intermediate to those of the BCLC-A and BCLC-B groups. It is suggested that the SLHCC group could be classified as occupying a different stage from the BCLC stages A and B. The ALBI grade could help to stratify SLHCC into a different prognostic group. However, the results need to be validated externally in other regions of the world.

Combination of albumin-bilirubin grade and platelets to predict a compensated patient with hepatocellular carcinoma who does not require endoscopic screening for esophageal varices

BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS

There is no consensus on screening for high-risk esophageal varices (HRV) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here, we aimed to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of HRV in patients with HCC and to assess the combination of albumin-bilirubin grade and platelet count (ALBI-PLT score) for predicting compensated patients who do not need unnecessary endoscopic screening for HRV.

METHODS

The ALBI-PLT score was calculated by adding the ALBI grade and points for platelet count (1 point if platelet count >150,000/mm³ and 2 points if ≤150,000/mm³). The predictive value of the ALBI-PLT score for HRV was analyzed in 887 compensated patients enrolled from October 2007 to April 2014 (study cohort). This was validated in 215 compensated patients from May 2014 to December 2015 (validation cohort).

RESULTS

In the study cohort, the rates of HRV were 2.9% and 21.1% in compensated HCC patients with an ALBI-PLT score of 2 and >2, respectively. The negative predictive values of the ALBI-PLT score for predicting HRV were 97.1% and 98.1% in the study and validation cohorts, respectively. For compensated patients who did not receive endoscopic screening at the time of HCC diagnosis, the 5-year cumulative variceal hemorrhage rate was lower in patients with an ALBI-PLT score of 2 than in those with an ALBI-PLT score >2 (1.7% vs 9.1%, P = .007).

CONCLUSION

In patients with HCC with compensated liver function, an ALBI-PLT score of 2 predicted a very low risk of HRV and variceal hemorrhage; therefore, endoscopic screening for esophageal varices is not recommended for these patients.