Identification of risk factors in epidemiologic study based on ROC curve and network

Burden of aortic aneurysm in Iran from 1990 to 2019: an analysis based on global burden of disease study

Background

Limited studies have been conducted on the epidemiology of aortic aneurysms in Iran. In this study, the authors aimed to comprehensively evaluate the burden and epidemiology of aortic aneurysms across various age groups, sexes, and provinces in Iran from 1990 to 2019.

Materials and methods

The authors used global burden of disease (GBD) study data in the current study. The authors retrieved data on the burden of aortic aneurysms across sexes and age groups at national and subnational levels from 1990 to 2019. The authors extracted mortality, years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life year (DALY), numbers, rates, and age-standardized rates. Additionally, the authors extracted the burden of AA attributable to its risk factors, such as lead exposure, high systolic blood pressure, high dietary intake of sodium, and smoking.

Results

National ASDR (age-standardized DALY rate) was also observed to be reduced from 1990 [22.20 (17.46-26.86)] to 2019 [19.97 (17.98-21.98)]. However, the inclinations were evaluated to be slighter than the world (%change ASDR=-19.5%). In 2019, three leading risk factors yielding death in AA patients were smoking [ASMR attributable=0.73 (0.67-0.80)], high sodium intake [ASMR attributable=0.11 (0.03-0.27)], and lead exposure [ASMR attributable=0.04 (0.02-0.07)].

Conclusion

Mortality and DALYs due to AA both decreased slightly during the last three decades. Considering the role of smoking in the burden of AA in Iran, interventions targeting smoking cessation among high-risk groups, such as males, may be helpful to reduce the burden of AA in Iran in the coming years.

Musculoskeletal pain is not clearly associated with the risk of anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction in adolescents

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether self-reported musculoskeletal pain (MSP) was associated with a future anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR).

Methods

In this population-based prospective cohort study, we included 8087 participants from the adolescent part of the Trøndelag Health Study (Young-HUNT) in Norway. The exposure was self-reported MSP from the Young-HUNT3 study (2006-2008), which was categorised into two MSP load groups (high MSP and low MSP) based on frequency and number of pain sites. The outcome was ACLRs recorded in the Norwegian Knee Ligament Register between 2006 and 2019. Logistic regression was used to investigate association between MSP load and ACLR, given as ORs with 95% CIs. All tests were two-sided and p values of ≤0.05 were considered statistically significant.

Results

8087 adolescents were included. We identified a total of 99 ACLRs, with 6 ACLRs (0.9%) in adolescents who reported high MSP load and 93 ACLRs (1.3%) among those who reported low MSP load. Adolescents reporting high MSP load had 23% lower odds of an ACLR (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.31 to 1.91) compared with adolescents with low MSP load. However, the CIs were very wide.

Conclusion

Self-reported high MSP load in adolescents was not associated with increased risk of future ACLR. Although the number of participants was high, the relatively few cases of ACLR mean that we cannot be conclusive about the presence or absence of an association.

Factors Responsible for Prehospital Delay in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome in Bangladesh

Background: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains a cause of high morbidity and mortality among adults, despite advances in treatment. Treatment modality and outcomes of ACS mainly depend on the time yielded since the onset of symptoms. Prehospital delay is the time between the onset of myocardial ischemia/infarction symptoms and arrival at the hospital, where either pharmacological or interventional revascularization is available. This delay remains unacceptably long in many countries worldwide, including Bangladesh. The current study investigates several sociodemographic characteristics as well as clinical, social, and treatment-seeking behaviors, with an aim to uncover the factors responsible for the decision time to get medical help and home-to-hospital delay. Materials and Methods: A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted between July 2019 and June 2020 in 21 district hospitals and 6 medical college hospitals where cardiac care facilities were available. The population selected for this study was patients with ACS who visited the studied hospitals during the study period. Following confirmation of ACS, a semi-structured data sheet was used to collect the patient data and was subsequently analyzed. Results: This study evaluated 678 ACS patients from 30 districts. The majority of the patients were male (81.9%), married (98.2%), rural residents (79.2), middle-aged (40–60 years of age) (55.8%), low-income holders (89.4%), and overweight (56.9%). It was found that 37.5% of the patients received their first medical care after 12 h of first symptom presentation. The study found that the patients’ age, residence, education, and employment status were significant factors associated with prehospital delay. The patients with previous myocardial infarction (MI) and chest pain arrived significantly earlier at the hospital following ACS onset. Location of symptom onset, first medical contact with a private physician, distance from symptom onset location to location of first medical contact, the decision about hospitalization, ignorance of symptoms, and mode of transportation were significantly associated with prehospital delay. Conclusions: Several factors of prehospital delay of the ACS patients in Bangladesh have been described in this study. The findings of this study may help the national health management system identify the factors related to treatment delay in ACS and thus reduce ACS-related morbidity and mortality.

Using network analysis to illuminate the intergenerational transmission of adversity

Objective: The effects of maternal exposure to adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) may be transmitted to subsequent generations through various biopsychosocial mechanisms. However, studies tend to focus on exploring one or two focal pathways with less attention paid to links between different pathways. Using a network approach, this paper explores a range of core prenatal risk factors that may link maternal ACEs to infant preterm birth (PTB) and low birthweight (LBW). Methods: We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) (n = 8379) to estimate two mixed graphical network models: Model 1 was constructed using adverse infant outcomes, biopsychosocial and environmental risk factors, forms of ACEs, and sociodemographic factors. In Model 2, ACEs were combined to represent a threshold ACEs score (≥4). Network indices (i.e., shortest path and bridge expected influence [1-step & 2-step]) were estimated to determine the shortest pathway from ACEs to infant outcomes, and to identify the risk factors that are vital in activating other risk factors and adverse outcomes. Results: Network analyses estimated a mutually reinforcing web of childhood and prenatal risk factors, with each risk connected to at least two other risks. Bridge influence indices suggested that childhood physical and sexual abuse and multiple ACEs were highly interconnected to others risks. Overall, risky health behaviours during pregnancy (i.e., smoking & illicit drug use) were identified as 'active' risk factors capable of affecting (directly and indirectly) other risk factors and contributing to the persistent activation of the global risk network. These risks may be considered priority candidate targets for interventions to disrupt intergenerational risk transmission. Our study demonstrates the promise of network analysis as an approach for illuminating the intergenerational transmission of adversity in its full complexity.

HIGHLIGHTS

We took a network approach to assessing links between ACEs and birth outcomes.ACEs, other prenatal risk factors, and birth outcomes had complex inter-connectionsHealth behaviours in pregnancy were indicated as optimal intervention targets.

[Value of prediction models for prognosis prediction of colorectal cancer: an analysis based on TCPA database]

OBJECTIVE

To assess the value of the combination of multiple proteins in predicting the prognosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) through bioinformatics analysis.

OBJECTIVE

The protein expression and clinical data were downloaded from TCPA database. Perl and R were used to screen the prognostic-related proteins, and through Cox analysis, the proteins that served as independent prognostic factors of CRC were identified to build the prediction model. Survival analyses were conducted for each of the proteins included in the prediction model and the risk score of the model, and risk curves was drawn for the risk score and the patients' survival status to verify the performance of the model. Independent prognosis analysis and ROC analysis were used to assess the value and advantages of the model in prognosis prediction. The interactions between the proteins included in the model and the differential expressions of the key genes related with the proteins were analyzed.

OBJECTIVE

Six proteins were screened for model construction. Compared with a single gene, the model showed much greater prognostic value for CRC. Independent prognostic analysis showed that the risk score of the prediction model was significantly related with the prognosis (P < 0.001), and the model could be used as an independent risk factor for prognostic assessment of the patients. ROC analysis showed that the model had good specificity and sensitivity for prognostic prediction (AUC=0.734). Protein interactions showed that BID, SLC1A5 and SRC_pY527 were significantly correlated with other proteins (P < 0.001), and SLC1A5 and SRC_pY527 had the most significant interactions with other proteins (P < 0.001). Except for those of INPP4B, the key genes related with the proteins in the prediction model had significant differential expressions at the mRNA level in CRC (P < 0.05).

OBJECTIVE

The prediction model constructed based on 6 proteins has good prognostic value for CRC. The proteins SLC1A5 and SRC_pY527 play key roles in the prognosis of CRC, and SRC_pY527 may regulate the occurrence and progression of CRC through the SRC/AKT/MAPK signal axis and thus may serve as a new therapeutic target of CRC.