Modeling of phosphorus loss from field to watershed: A review

Phosphorus (P) losses from nonpoint sources into surface water resources through surface runoff and tile drainage play a significant role in eutrophication. Accordingly, the number of studies involving the modeling of agricultural P losses, the uncertainties of such models, and the best management practices (BMPs) supported by the modeling of hypothetical P loss reduction scenarios has increased significantly around the world. Many improvements have been made to these models: separate manure P pools, variable source areas allowing the determination of critical source areas of P loss, analyses of modeling uncertainties, and understanding of legacy P. However, several elements are still missing or have yet to be sufficiently addressed: the incorporation of preferential flow into models, the modification of P sorption-desorption processes considering recent research data (e.g., pedotransfer functions for labile, active, or stable P, along with P sorption coefficients), BMP parameterization, and scale-up issues, as well as stakeholder-scientist and experimentalist-modeler interactions. The accuracy of P loss modeling can be improved by (a) incorporating dynamic P sorption-desorption processes and new P subroutines for direct P loss from manure, fertilizer, and dung, (b) modeling preferential flow, connectivity between field and adjacent water bodies, and P in-stream processes, (c) including an assessment of model uncertainty, (d) integrating field and watershed models for BMP calibration and scaling field results up to larger areas, and (e) building a holistic interaction between stakeholders, experimentalists, and modelers.

Trends and seasonality of river nutrients in agricultural catchments: 18years of weekly citizen science in France

Agriculture and urbanization have disturbed three-quarters of global ice-free land surface, delivering huge amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus to freshwater ecosystems. These excess nutrients degrade habitat and threaten human food and water security at a global scale. Because most catchments are either currently subjected to, or recovering from anthropogenic nutrient loading, understanding the short- and long-term responses of river nutrients to changes in land use is essential for effective management. We analyzed a never-published, 18-year time series of anthropogenic (NO₃^- and PO₄^3-) and naturally derived (dissolved silica) riverine nutrients in 13 catchments recovering from agricultural pollution in western France. In a citizen science initiative, high-school students sampled catchments weekly, which ranged from 26 to 1489km². Nutrient concentrations decreased substantially over the period of record (19 to 50% for NO₃^- and 14 to 80% for PO₄^3-), attributable to regional, national, and international investment and regulation, which started immediately prior to monitoring. For the majority of catchments, water quality during the summer low-flow period improved faster than during winter high-flow conditions, and annual minimum concentrations improved relatively faster than annual maximum concentrations. These patterns suggest that water-quality improvements were primarily due to elimination of discrete nutrient sources with seasonally-constant discharge (e.g. human and livestock wastewater), agreeing with available land-use and municipal records. Surprisingly, long-term nutrient decreases were not accompanied by changes in nutrient seasonality in most catchments, attributable to persistent, diffuse nutrient stocks. Despite decreases, nutrient concentrations in almost all catchments remained well above eutrophication thresholds, and because additional improvements will depend on decreasing diffuse nutrient sources, future gains may be much slower than initial rate of recovery. These findings demonstrate the value of citizen science initiatives in quantifying long-term and seasonal consequences of changes in land management, which are necessary to identify sustainable limits and predict recovery timeframes.

The degree of phosphorus saturation of agricultural soils in Germany: Current and future risk of diffuse P loss and implications for soil P management in Europe

Decades of intensive agricultural production with excessive application of P fertilizer have resulted in the accumulation of P in soils, threatening water bodies in most industrialized countries with eutrophication. In our study, we elucidated the risk of P loss of German agricultural soils by transforming provided monitoring data of plant-available P determined by the calcium-acetate-lactate (PCAL) and double-lactate method (PDL) into the degree of phosphorus saturation (DPS). As water-soluble phosphorus (WSP) is correlated to DPS, we derived a pedotransfer function (PTF) between PCAL and WSP for different soil types. Considering all soils together resulted in WSP=0.1918×PCAL (R²=0.80, n=54). Subsequently, risk parameters DPS and EPC0 were calculated from PCAL and PDL monitoring data (n>337,000) by using the determined PTF and soil type-independent correlations with WSP, as published in an earlier study. Calculated DPS values from monitoring data indicated high risks of dissolved P loss for >76% of German arable soils. Recent suggestions by the Association of German Agricultural Analytical and Research Institutes (VDLUFA) to reduce recommended PCAL levels are crucial for the reduction of P loss risks in the future. The accuracy of predicted DPS and EPC0 values by CAL and other methods used in Europe to estimate plant-available P is limited by the soil type-dependency of these methods. Consequently, we recommend considering WSP as an agri-environmental soil P test across Europe. Our results indicate that a WSP level in soils can be defined that constitutes a reasonable compromise between the securing of agronomic production and the fulfillment of environmental goals.

Assessing Coastal Plain Risk Indices for Subsurface Phosphorus Loss

Phosphorus (P) Index evaluations are critical to advancing nutrient management planning in the United States. However, most assessments until now have focused on the risks of P losses in surface runoff. In artificially drained agroecosystems of the Atlantic Coastal Plain, subsurface flow is the predominant mode of P transport, but its representation in most P Indices is often inadequate. We explored methods to evaluate the subsurface P risk routines of five P Indices from Delaware, Maryland (two), Virginia, and North Carolina using available water quality and soils datasets. Relationships between subsurface P risk scores and published dissolved P loads in leachate (Delaware, Maryland, and North Carolina) and ditch drainage (Maryland) were directionally correct and often statistically significant, yet the brevity of the observation periods (weeks to several years) and the limited number of sampling locations precluded a more robust assessment of each P Index. Given the paucity of measured P loss data, we then showed that soil water extractable P concentrations at depths corresponding with the seasonal high water table (WEP) could serve as a realistic proxy for subsurface P losses in ditch drainage. The associations between WEP and subsurface P risk ratings reasonably mirrored those obtained with sparser water quality data. As such, WEP is seen as a valuable metric that offers interim insight into the directionality of subsurface P risk scores when water quality data are inaccessible. In the long term, improved monitoring and modeling of subsurface P losses clearly should enhance the rigor of future P Index appraisals.

A novel integrated modelling framework to assess the impacts of climate and socio-economic drivers on land use and water quality

Changes in climatic conditions will directly affect the quality and quantity of water resources. Further on, they will affect them indirectly through adaptation in land use which ultimately influences diffuse nutrient emissions to rivers and therefore potentially the compliance with good ecological status according to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). We present an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to track and quantify direct and indirect pollution impacts along policy-economy-climate-agriculture-water interfaces. The IIMF is applied to assess impacts of climatic and socio-economic drivers on agricultural land use (crop choices, farming practices and fertilization levels), river flows and the risk for exceedance of environmental quality standards for determination of the ecological water quality status in Austria. This article also presents model interfaces as well as validation procedures and results of single models and the IIMF with respect to observed state variables such as land use, river flow and nutrient river loads. The performance of the IIMF for calculations of river nutrient loads (120 monitoring stations) shows a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.73 for nitrogen and 0.51 for phosphorus. Most problematic is the modelling of phosphorus loads in the alpine catchments dominated by forests and mountainous landscape. About 63% of these catchments show a deviation between modelled and observed loads of 30% and more. In catchments dominated by agricultural production, the performance of the IIMF is much better as only 30% of cropland and 23% of permanent grassland dominated areas have a deviation of >30% between modelled and observed loads. As risk of exceedance of environmental quality standards is mainly recognized in catchments dominated by cropland, the IIMF is well suited for assessing the nutrient component of the WFD ecological status.

Bioethanol from poplar clone Imola: an environmentally viable alternative to fossil fuel?

BACKGROUND

Environmental issues, e.g. climate change, fossil resource depletion have triggered ambitious national/regional policies to develop biofuel and bioenergy roles within the overall energy portfolio to achieve decarbonising the global economy and increase energy security. With the 10 % binding target for the transport sector, the Renewable Energy Directive confirms the EU's commitment to renewable transport fuels especially advanced biofuels. Imola is an elite poplar clone crossed from Populus deltoides Bartr. and Populus nigra L. by Research Units for Intensive Wood Production, Agriculture Research Council in Italy. This study examines its suitability for plantation cultivation under short or very short rotation coppice regimes as a potential lignocellulosic feedstock for the production of ethanol as a transport biofuel. A life cycle assessment (LCA) approach was used to model the cradle-to-gate environmental profile of Imola-derived biofuel benchmarked against conventional fossil gasoline. Specific attention was given to analysing the agroecosystem fluxes of carbon and nitrogen occurring in the cultivation of the Imola biomass in the biofuel life cycle using a process-oriented biogeochemistry model (DeNitrification-DeComposition) specifically modified for application to 2G perennial bioenergy crops and carbon and nitrogen cycling.

RESULTS

Our results demonstrate that carbon and nitrogen cycling in perennial crop-soil ecosystems such as this example can be expected to have significant effects on the overall environmental profiles of 2G biofuels. In particular, soil carbon accumulation in perennial biomass plantations is likely to be a significant component in the overall greenhouse gas balance of future biofuel and other biorefinery products and warrants ongoing research and data collection for LCA models. We conclude that bioethanol produced from Imola represents a promising alternative transport fuel offering some savings ranging from 35 to 100 % over petrol in global warming potential, ozone depletion and photochemical oxidation impact categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Via comparative analyses for Imola-derived bioethanol across potential supply chains, we highlight priority issues for potential improvement in 2G biofuel profiling. Advanced clones of poplar such as Imola for 2G biofuel production in Italy as modelled here show potential to deliver an environmentally sustainable lignocellulosic biorefinery industry and accelerate advanced biofuel penetration in the transport sector.

Bayesian uncertainty assessment of a semi-distributed integrated catchment model of phosphorus transport

Process-based models of nutrient transport are often used as tools for management of eutrophic waters, as decision makers need to judge the potential effects of alternative remediation measures, under current conditions and with future land use and climate change. All modelling exercises entail uncertainty arising from various sources, such as the input data, selection of parameter values and the choice of model itself. Here we perform Bayesian uncertainty assessment of an integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P). We use an auto-calibration procedure and an algorithm for including parametric uncertainty to simulate phosphorus transport in a Norwegian lowland river basin. Two future scenarios were defined to exemplify the importance of parametric uncertainty in generating predictions. While a worst case scenario yielded a robust prediction of increased loading of phosphorus, a best case scenario only gave rise to a reduction in load with probability 0.78, highlighting the importance of taking parametric uncertainty into account in process-based catchment scale modelling of possible remediation scenarios. Estimates of uncertainty can be included in information provided to decision makers, thus making a stronger scientific basis for sound decisions to manage water resources.

Modelling mitigation options to reduce diffuse nitrogen water pollution from agriculture

Agriculture is responsible for large scale water quality degradation and is estimated to contribute around 55% of the nitrogen entering the European Seas. The key policy instrument for protecting inland, transitional and coastal water resources is the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Reducing nutrient losses from agriculture is crucial to the successful implementation of the WFD. There are several mitigation measures that can be implemented to reduce nitrogen losses from agricultural areas to surface and ground waters. For the selection of appropriate measures, models are useful for quantifying the expected impacts and the associated costs. In this article we review some of the models used in Europe to assess the effectiveness of nitrogen mitigation measures, ranging from fertilizer management to the construction of riparian areas and wetlands. We highlight how the complexity of models is correlated with the type of scenarios that can be tested, with conceptual models mostly used to evaluate the impact of reduced fertilizer application, and the physically-based models used to evaluate the timing and location of mitigation options and the response times. We underline the importance of considering the lag time between the implementation of measures and effects on water quality. Models can be effective tools for targeting mitigation measures (identifying critical areas and timing), for evaluating their cost effectiveness, for taking into consideration pollution swapping and considering potential trade-offs in contrasting environmental objectives. Models are also useful for involving stakeholders during the development of catchments mitigation plans, increasing their acceptability.

Linking in-stream nutrient flux to land use and inter-annual hydrological variability at the watershed scale

The significance of nutrient inputs at the watershed scale is best expressed in terms of in-stream processes, compared to evaluating simple field measurements of nutrient inputs. Modeling tools are necessary to consider the complexity of river networks in the determination of the sources and processes by which nutrients are transported at the watershed scale. Mediterranean rivers are potentially vulnerable to climate change (decrease in precipitation and increase of extreme events), and identifying and quantifying nutrient pollution sources and their spatial distribution can improve water resource management at the watershed scale. We apply a hybrid process-based and statistical model (SPARROW, spatially referenced regression on watershed attributes) to a largely disturbed Mediterranean watershed in NE Spain in order to estimate the annual nitrate and phosphate loads reaching the drainage network. The model emphasized the contribution of in-stream processes in nutrient transport and retention, and the inter-annual (7 years) effects of hydrological variability on the export of nutrients from the landscape to water bodies. Although forest and grassland land cover types predominate, agricultural activities and human agglomerations were significant sources of nutrient enrichment. Nutrient flux apportionment was also linked to inter-annual hydrological variability. Exported nutrient load increased in the downstream direction and coincided with decreased in-stream nutrient removal, probably worsened by the significant chemical and geomorphological impairment found in the lower parts of the watershed.

Water quality targets and maintenance of valued landscape character - experience in the Axe catchment, UK

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) (Directive 2000/60/EC) requires new ecological standards for rivers, lakes and coastal waters by 2015. In the United Kingdom the English Catchment Sensitive Farming Initiative has identified 40 catchments which are at risk of failing the European Commission WFD targets for good ecological status of water bodies because of a range of issues. The river Axe catchment situated in south-west England, with a mixture of diffuse and point sources of pollution, is one of these priority sites, as intensive dairy farming and cultivation of high risk crops (maize) cause problems with enhanced suspended sediment, nitrate and phosphorus levels in the river. Much of the Axe is under national and county landscape designations, making land use or management measures taken to achieve river status sensitive to these designations. For the purpose of this research the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT-2005) was used. The baseline scenario was based on field observation and interviews with the Environment Agency and farmers; it was run with and without point sources. Three different mitigation scenarios, designed to maintain the landscape of the catchment, were then tested. Field buffer strips (FBS), extensive land use management (EXT) and sheep land use management (SHP), were used to assess the effectiveness of the measures in reducing nutrient loads in the river Axe, UK. Management scenarios reduced the average annual loads at the main catchment outlet by 21.2% (FBS), 37.3% (EXT) and 45.0% (SHP), for total nitrogen and 47.7% (FBS), 60.6% (EXT) and 62.4% (SHP) for total phosphorus. The results of this study suggest that there may be a fundamental incompatibility between the delivery of WFD targets and the maintenance of viable agricultural systems necessary to maintain landscapes which are highly valued for their aesthetic, recreational and economic value.

Diffuse phosphorus models in the United States and europe: their usages, scales, and uncertainties

Today there are many well-established computer models that are being used at different spatial and temporal scales to describe water, sediment, and P transport from diffuse sources. In this review, we describe how diffuse P models are commonly being used in the United States and Europe, the challenge presented by different temporal and spatial scales, and the uncertainty in model predictions. In the United States, for water bodies that do not meet water quality standards, a total maximum daily load (TMDL) of the pollutant of concern must be set that will restore water quality and a plan implemented to reduce the pollutant load to meet the TMDL. Models are used to estimate the current maximum daily and annual average load, to estimate the contribution from different nonpoint sources, and to develop scenarios for achieving the TMDL target. In Europe, the EC-Water Framework Directive is the driving force to improve water quality and models are playing a similar role to that in the United States, but the models being used are not the same. European models are more likely to take into account leaching of P and the identification of critical source areas. Scaling up to the watershed scale has led to overparameterized models that cannot be used to test hypotheses regarding nonpoint sources of P or transport processes using the monitoring data that is typically available. There is a need for more parsimonious models and monitoring data that takes advantage of the technological improvements that allow nearly continuous sampling for P and sediment. Tools for measuring model uncertainty must become an integral part of models and be readily available for model users.

International phosphorus workshop: diffuse phosphorus loss to surface water bodies--risk assessment, mitigation options, and ecological effects in river basins

Agriculture is a major source of P to the aquatic environment in many countries. Although efforts have been made to improve the P utilization in agricultural production, which is reflected in modestly declining P surpluses in many countries, increasing agricultural P surpluses are still observed in some countries. The IPW5 Special Submission included in this issue addresses and discusses four key topics that emerged from the workshop: (i) managing agricultural P losses-effectiveness, uncertainties, and costs; (ii) P modeling at different scales; (iii) functioning of riparian buffers; (iv) ecological responses to P loadings and impacts of climate change. Each of these four topics interacts with each other as well as with the four tiers of the P Transfer Continuum (Source, Mobilization, Transport, and Ecological Effects). In this review paper we highlight the main outcomes of the workshop and the special collection of eight papers. Moreover, we identify the main gaps in our knowledge and future research directions on P, which are linked to important issues such as addressing scale effects, improved P models with the ability to quantify uncertainty, the linking of P losses with ecological effects, and climate change.