Uncertainty and equifinality in environmental modelling of organic pollutants with specific focus on cyclic volatile methyl siloxanes

A new approach for incorporating sea-level rise in hybrid 2D/one-line shoreline models

Hybrid 2D/one-line shoreline models, which typically apply a finite volume approach to simulate sediment transport and the one-line theory to update the shoreline morphology, are being increasingly applied over meso timescales (10¹ to 10² years) to inform coastal management. The one-line theory assumption of a constant closure depth prevents these models from considering the effects of sea-level rise in the shoreline morphology update. Sea-level rise, an endogenous driving factor of meso timescale coastal behaviour, influences the closure depth through its effects on the wave climate. This paper presents a new hybrid 2D/one-line approach that enables a time-varying closure depth in response to annual variations in wave climate as a solution for mirroring the effects of sea-level rise on the coastal profile and associated shoreline evolution. This new hybrid approach is applied to hindcast meso timescale shoreline evolution in a sandy coastal system and compared against the traditional hybrid 2D/one-line approach. Results show that the traditional hybrid approach gives the most accurate predictions whereas the new hybrid approach overpredicts shoreline erosion. However, this overprediction is attributed to net closure depth overestimation. This attribution gives confidence that the shoreline response to the time-varying closure depth specified is within expectations since closure depth overestimation increases offshore sediment transport in shoreline models. Therefore, it is likely that enabling a time-varying closure depth in hybrid 2D/one-line models may improve meso timescale shoreline predictions under sea-level rise if closure depths can be accurately prescribed over time.

Fugacity-based analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon pollution in Izmit Bay, Turkey: An analytical framework for assessment with limited data

An analytical framework was proposed for analyzing long-term chemical pollution in a coastal region with limited environmental data. The framework consists of compiling and synthesizing the available knowledge including the chemical's properties and the environmentally relevant data, as well as the data obtained by past monitoring studies. The gathered data is analyzed to assess multimedia fate of the pollutant by using fugacity-based intermedia transport calculations. Uncertainty analysis by applying Monte Carlo simulations is an integrated part of the framework. Dispersion factor (k) values were adopted, enabling a unified and intuitive way to define lognormal uncertainty distributions. The proposed framework was applied to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) pollution in Izmit Bay, a coastal region in Turkey, impacted by industrialization and population growth. The analysis showed the importance of atmospheric pollution as a PAH source and indicated that Izmit Bay sediments may be at steady state for most PAHs.

Application of multimedia models for understanding the environmental behavior of volatile methylsiloxanes: Fate, transport, and bioaccumulation

Multimedia fate and transport models (MFTMs) describe how chemicals behave in the environment based on their inherent properties and the characteristics of receiving systems. We critically review the use of MFTMs for understanding the behavior of volatile methylsiloxanes (VMS). MFTMs have been used to predict the fate of VMS in wastewater treatment, rivers, lakes, marine systems, and the atmosphere, and to assess bioaccumulation and trophic transfers. More widely, they have been used to assess the overall persistence, long-range transport potential (LRTP), and the propensity for atmosphere-surface exchange. The application of MFTMs for VMS requires particularly careful selection of model inputs because the properties of VMS differ from those of most organic compounds. For example, although n-octanol/water partition coefficient (K_OW ) values are high, air:water partition coefficient (K_AW ) values are also high and n-octanol/air partition coefficient (K_OA ) values are relatively low. In addition, organic carbon/water partition coefficient (K_OC ) values are substantially lower than expectations based on K_OW . This means that most empirical relationships between K_OC and K_OW are not appropriate. Good agreement between modeled and measured concentrations in air, sediment, and biota indicates that our understanding of environmental fate is reasonable. VMS compounds are "fliers" that principally partition to the atmosphere, implying high LRTP, although they have low redeposition potential. They are degraded in air (half-lives 3-10 days) and, thus, have low overall persistence. In water, exposure can be limited by hydrolysis, volatilization, and partitioning to sediments (where degradation half-lives are likely to be high). In food webs, they are influenced by metabolism in biota, which tends to drive trophic dilution (i.e., trophic magnification factors are often but not always <1). Key remaining uncertainties include the following: (i) the strength and direction of the temperature dependence for K_OC ; (ii) the fate of atmospheric reaction products; and (iii) the magnitude of emissions to wastewater. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:599-621. © 2021 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Predicting 3D moisture sorption behavior of materials from 1D investigations

Moisture in materials can be a source of future outgassing and exacerbate unwanted changes in physical and chemical properties. Here, we investigate the effect of sample size and shape on the moisture transport phenomena through a combined experimental and modeling approach. Several different materials varying in size and shape were investigated over a wide range of relative humidities (0–90%) and temperatures (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$30{-}70^{\,\circ } \hbox {C}$$\end{document}30-70∘C) using gravimetric type dynamic vapor sorption (DVS). A dynamic triple-mode sorption model, developed previously, was employed to describe the experimental results with good success; the model includes absorption, adsorption, pooling (clustering) of species, and molecular diffusion. Here we show that the full triple-mode sorption model is robust enough to predict the dynamic uptake and outgassing of 3-dimensional (3D) samples using parameters derived from quasi-1D samples. This successful demonstration on three different materials (filled polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS), unfilled PDMS, and ceramic inorganic composite) illustrates that the model is robust at describing the scale-independent physics and chemistry of moisture sorption and diffusion materials. This work demonstrates that while sorption mechanisms manifest in testing of all sample sizes, some of these mechanisms were so subtle that they were overlooked in our initial modeling and assessment, illustrating the importance of multi-scale experiments in the development of robust predictive capabilities. Our study also outlines the challenges and viable solutions for global optimization of a multi-parameter model. The ability to quantify moisture sorption and diffusion, independent of scale, using 1D lab-scale experiments enables prediction of long-term bulk materials behavior in real applications.