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Klupar I, Rocha AV, Rastetter EB. Alleviation of nutrient co-limitation induces regime shifts in post-fire community composition and productivity in Arctic tundra. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:3324-3335. [PMID: 33960082 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15646] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2021] [Accepted: 03/21/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Recent unprecedented fires in the Arctic during the past two decades have indicated a pressing need to understand the long-term ecological impacts of fire in this biome. Anecdotal evidence suggests that tundra fires can induce regime shifts that change tussock tundra to more shrub-dominated ecosystems. However, the ecological mechanisms regulating these shifts are poorly understood, but are hypothesized to involve changes to nutrient availability in this nutrient limited system. Here we conducted a 4-year two-factorial (control: C, nitrogen along: N+ , phosphorus alone: P+ , nitrogen and phosphorus combined: NP+ ) fertilization experiment in both unburned and burned tundra to test this hypothesis after a decade of post-fire recovery. A decade after fire, the burned site exhibited an increase in soil nitrogen and phosphorus availability and a transition toward taller, more productive, and more deciduous vegetation. This shift in vegetation structure, composition, and function was induced at the unburned site through the addition of both NP+ and the alleviation of their co-limitation. Both burned and unburned tundra responded similarly to fertilizer treatments by increasing leaf area index, greenness, and canopy height in NP+ treatments, and exhibited no significant response in individual N+ or P+ treatments. These results point to a greater need to understand coupled carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles in this system, and suggest that post-fire regime shifts are regulated by the alleviation of nitrogen and phosphorus co-limitation in Arctic tundra.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian Klupar
- Department of Biological Sciences and the Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Adrian V Rocha
- Department of Biological Sciences and the Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Edward B Rastetter
- Marine Biological Laboratory, The Ecosystems Center, Woods Hole, MA, USA
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Yu Q, Epstein H, Engstrom R, Walker D. Circumpolar arctic tundra biomass and productivity dynamics in response to projected climate change and herbivory. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:3895-3907. [PMID: 28276177 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13632] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2016] [Accepted: 12/20/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Satellite remote sensing data have indicated a general 'greening' trend in the arctic tundra biome. However, the observed changes based on remote sensing are the result of multiple environmental drivers, and the effects of individual controls such as warming, herbivory, and other disturbances on changes in vegetation biomass, community structure, and ecosystem function remain unclear. We apply ArcVeg, an arctic tundra vegetation dynamics model, to estimate potential changes in vegetation biomass and net primary production (NPP) at the plant community and functional type levels. ArcVeg is driven by soil nitrogen output from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, existing densities of Rangifer populations, and projected summer temperature changes by the NCAR CCSM4.0 general circulation model across the Arctic. We quantified the changes in aboveground biomass and NPP resulting from (i) observed herbivory only; (ii) projected climate change only; and (iii) coupled effects of projected climate change and herbivory. We evaluated model outputs of the absolute and relative differences in biomass and NPP by country, bioclimate subzone, and floristic province. Estimated potential biomass increases resulting from temperature increase only are approximately 5% greater than the biomass modeled due to coupled warming and herbivory. Such potential increases are greater in areas currently occupied by large or dense Rangifer herds such as the Nenets-occupied regions in Russia (27% greater vegetation increase without herbivores). In addition, herbivory modulates shifts in plant community structure caused by warming. Plant functional types such as shrubs and mosses were affected to a greater degree than other functional types by either warming or herbivory or coupled effects of the two.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qin Yu
- Department of Geography, The George Washington University, 1922F street NW, Washington, DC, 20052, USA
| | - Howard Epstein
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, 291 McCormick Rd, Charlottesville, VA, 22904, USA
| | - Ryan Engstrom
- Department of Geography, The George Washington University, 1922F street NW, Washington, DC, 20052, USA
| | - Donald Walker
- Arctic Geobotany Center, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK, USA
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Sensitivity analysis of ecosystem CO2 exchange to climate change in High Arctic tundra using an ecological process-based model. Polar Biol 2015. [DOI: 10.1007/s00300-015-1777-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
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Pearce AR, Rastetter EB, Kwiatkowski BL, Bowden WB, Mack MC, Jiang Y. Recovery of arctic tundra from thermal erosion disturbance is constrained by nutrient accumulation: a modeling analysis. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2015; 25:1271-89. [PMID: 26485955 DOI: 10.1890/14-1323.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Abstract. We calibrated the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to Alaskan arctic tundra to simulate recovery of thermal erosion features (TEFs) caused by permafrost thaw and mass wasting. TEFs could significantly alter regional carbon (C) and nutrient budgets because permafrost soils contain large stocks of soil organic matter (SOM) and TEFs are expected to become more frequent as the climate warms. We simulated recovery following TEF stabilization and did not address initial, short-term losses of C and nutrients during TEF formation. To capture the variability among and within TEFs, we modeled a range of post-stabilization conditions by varying the initial size of SOM stocks and nutrient supply rates. Simulations indicate that nitrogen (N) losses after the TEF stabilizes are small, but phosphorus (P) losses continue. Vegetation biomass recovered 90% of its undisturbed C, N, and P stocks in 100 years using nutrients mineralized from SOM. Because of low litter inputs but continued decomposition, younger SOM continued to be lost for 10 years after the TEF began to recover, but recovered to about 84% of its undisturbed amount in 100 years. The older recalcitrant SOM in mineral soil continued to be lost throughout the 100-year simulation. Simulations suggest that biomass recovery depended on the amount of SOM remaining after disturbance. Recovery was initially limited by the photosynthetic capacity of vegetation but became co-limited by N and P once a plant canopy developed. Biomass and SOM recovery was enhanced by increasing nutrient supplies, but the magnitude, source, and controls on these supplies are poorly understood. Faster mineralization of nutrients from SOM (e.g., by warming) enhanced vegetation recovery but delayed recovery of SOM. Taken together, these results suggest that although vegetation and surface SOM on TEFs recovered quickly (25 and 100 years, respectively), the recovery of deep, mineral soil SOM took centuries and represented a major ecosystem C loss.
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Belshe EF, Schuur EAG, Bolker BM. Tundra ecosystems observed to be CO2sources due to differential amplification of the carbon cycle. Ecol Lett 2013; 16:1307-15. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.12164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 130] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2013] [Revised: 06/03/2013] [Accepted: 07/10/2013] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- E. F. Belshe
- Department of Biology; University of Florida; Gainesville FL 32611 USA
| | - E. A. G. Schuur
- Department of Biology; University of Florida; Gainesville FL 32611 USA
| | - B. M. Bolker
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics; McMaster University; Hamilton ON L8S 4K1 USA
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Luo Y, Ogle K, Tucker C, Fei S, Gao C, LaDeau S, Clark JS, Schimel DS. Ecological forecasting and data assimilation in a data-rich era. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2011; 21:1429-42. [PMID: 21830693 DOI: 10.1890/09-1275.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Several forces are converging to transform ecological research and increase its emphasis on quantitative forecasting. These forces include (1) dramatically increased volumes of data from observational and experimental networks, (2) increases in computational power, (3) advances in ecological models and related statistical and optimization methodologies, and most importantly, (4) societal needs to develop better strategies for natural resource management in a world of ongoing global change. Traditionally, ecological forecasting has been based on process-oriented models, informed by data in largely ad hoc ways. Although most ecological models incorporate some representation of mechanistic processes, today's models are generally not adequate to quantify real-world dynamics and provide reliable forecasts with accompanying estimates of uncertainty. A key tool to improve ecological forecasting and estimates of uncertainty is data assimilation (DA), which uses data to inform initial conditions and model parameters, thereby constraining a model during simulation to yield results that approximate reality as closely as possible. This paper discusses the meaning and history of DA in ecological research and highlights its role in refining inference and generating forecasts. DA can advance ecological forecasting by (1) improving estimates of model parameters and state variables, (2) facilitating selection of alternative model structures, and (3) quantifying uncertainties arising from observations, models, and their interactions. However, DA may not improve forecasts when ecological processes are not well understood or never observed. Overall, we suggest that DA is a key technique for converting raw data into ecologically meaningful products, which is especially important in this era of dramatically increased availability of data from observational and experimental networks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yiqi Luo
- Department of Botany and Microbiology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma 73019, USA.
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Horwath JL, Sletten RS, Hagedorn B, Hallet B. Spatial and temporal distribution of soil organic carbon in nonsorted striped patterned ground of the High Arctic. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jg000511] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Balshi MS, McGuire AD, Zhuang Q, Melillo J, Kicklighter DW, Kasischke E, Wirth C, Flannigan M, Harden J, Clein JS, Burnside TJ, McAllister J, Kurz WA, Apps M, Shvidenko A. The role of historical fire disturbance in the carbon dynamics of the pan-boreal region: A process-based analysis. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jg000380] [Citation(s) in RCA: 150] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Responses of High Latitude Ecosystems to Global Change: Potential Consequences for the Climate System. TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS IN A CHANGING WORLD 2007. [DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-32730-1_24] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
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Sitch S, McGuire AD, Kimball J, Gedney N, Gamon J, Engstrom R, Wolf A, Zhuang Q, Clein J, McDonald KC. Assessing the carbon balance of circumpolar Arctic tundra using remote sensing and process modeling. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2007; 17:213-34. [PMID: 17479847 DOI: 10.1890/1051-0761(2007)017[0213:atcboc]2.0.co;2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
This paper reviews the current status of using remote sensing and process-based modeling approaches to assess the contemporary and future circumpolar carbon balance of Arctic tundra, including the exchange of both carbon dioxide and methane with the atmosphere. Analyses based on remote sensing approaches that use a 20-year data record of satellite data indicate that tundra is greening in the Arctic, suggesting an increase in photosynthetic activity and net primary production. Modeling studies generally simulate a small net carbon sink for the distribution of Arctic tundra, a result that is within the uncertainty range of field-based estimates of net carbon exchange. Applications of process-based approaches for scenarios of future climate change generally indicate net carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra as enhanced vegetation production exceeds simulated increases in decomposition. However, methane emissions are likely to increase dramatically, in response to rising soil temperatures, over the next century. Key uncertainties in the response of Arctic ecosystems to climate change include uncertainties in future fire regimes and uncertainties relating to changes in the soil environment. These include the response of soil decomposition and respiration to warming and deepening of the soil active layer, uncertainties in precipitation and potential soil drying, and distribution of wetlands. While there are numerous uncertainties in the projections of process-based models, they generally indicate that Arctic tundra will be a small sink for carbon over the next century and that methane emissions will increase considerably, which implies that exchange of greenhouse gases between the atmosphere and Arctic tundra ecosystems is likely to contribute to climate warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephen Sitch
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.
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Prowse TD, Wrona FJ, Reist JD, Gibson JJ, Hobbie JE, Lévesque LMJ, Vincent WF. Climate change effects on hydroecology of arctic freshwater ecosystems. AMBIO 2006; 35:347-58. [PMID: 17256639 DOI: 10.1579/0044-7447(2006)35[347:cceoho]2.0.co;2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
In general, the arctic freshwater-terrestrial system will warm more rapidly than the global average, particularly during the autumn and winter season. The decline or loss of many cryospheric components and a shift from a nival to an increasingly pluvial system will produce numerous physical effects on freshwater ecosystems. Of particular note will be reductions in the dominance of the spring freshet and changes in the intensity of river-ice breakup. Increased evaporation/evapotranspiration due to longer ice-free seasons, higher air/water temperatures and greater transpiring vegetation along with increase infiltration because of permafrost thaw will decrease surface water levels and coverage. Loss of ice and permafrost, increased water temperatures and vegetation shifts will alter water chemistry, the general result being an increase in lotic and lentic productivity. Changes in ice and water flow/levels will lead to regime-specific increases and decreases in habitat availability/quality across the circumpolar Arctic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Terry D Prowse
- Water and Climate Impacts Research Centre, National Water Research Institute of Environment Canada, Department of Geography, University of Victoria, BC.
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Kwon HJ, Oechel WC, Zulueta RC, Hastings SJ. Effects of climate variability on carbon sequestration among adjacent wet sedge tundra and moist tussock tundra ecosystems. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2006. [DOI: 10.1029/2005jg000036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 76] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Liu J, Price DT, Chen JM. Nitrogen controls on ecosystem carbon sequestration: a model implementation and application to Saskatchewan, Canada. Ecol Modell 2005. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.01.036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
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McGuire AD. Arctic Transitions in the Land–Atmosphere System (ATLAS): Background, objectives, results, and future directions. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/2002jd002367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Le Dizès S. Modeling biogeochemical responses of tundra ecosystems to temporal and spatial variations in climate in the Kuparuk River Basin (Alaska). ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/2001jd000960] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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RASTETTER EDWARDB, ABER JOHND, PETERS DEBRAPC, OJIMA DENNISS, BURKE INGRIDC. Using Mechanistic Models to Scale Ecological Processes across Space and Time. Bioscience 2003. [DOI: 10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[0068:ummtse]2.0.co;2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 83] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
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Zhuang Q, McGuire AD, O'Neill KP, Harden JW, Romanovsky VE, Yarie J. Modeling soil thermal and carbon dynamics of a fire chronosequence in interior Alaska. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2002. [DOI: 10.1029/2001jd001244] [Citation(s) in RCA: 110] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Zhuang Q, Romanovsky VE, McGuire AD. Incorporation of a permafrost model into a large-scale ecosystem model: Evaluation of temporal and spatial scaling issues in simulating soil thermal dynamics. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2001. [DOI: 10.1029/2001jd900151] [Citation(s) in RCA: 103] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Potter CS, Wang S, Nikolov NT, McGuire AD, Liu J, King AW, Kimball JS, Grant RF, Frolking SE, Clein JS, Chen JM, Amthor JS. Comparison of boreal ecosystem model sensitivity to variability in climate and forest site parameters. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2001. [DOI: 10.1029/2000jd000224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Chapin FS, Mcguire AD, Randerson J, Pielke R, Baldocchi D, Hobbie SE, Roulet N, Eugster W, Kasischke E, Rastetter EB, Zimov SA, Running SW. Arctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2000; 6:211-223. [PMID: 35026938 DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2000.06022.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 135] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Synthesis of results from several Arctic and boreal research programmes provides evidence for the strong role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system. Average surface air temperature has increased 0.3 °C per decade during the twentieth century in the western North American Arctic and boreal forest zones. Precipitation has also increased, but changes in soil moisture are uncertain. Disturbance rates have increased in the boreal forest; for example, there has been a doubling of the area burned in North America in the past 20 years. The disturbance regime in tundra may not have changed. Tundra has a 3-6-fold higher winter albedo than boreal forest, but summer albedo and energy partitioning differ more strongly among ecosystems within either tundra or boreal forest than between these two biomes. This indicates a need to improve our understanding of vegetation dynamics within, as well as between, biomes. If regional surface warming were to continue, changes in albedo and energy absorption would likely act as a positive feedback to regional warming due to earlier melting of snow and, over the long term, the northward movement of treeline. Surface drying and a change in dominance from mosses to vascular plants would also enhance sensible heat flux and regional warming in tundra. In the boreal forest of western North America, deciduous forests have twice the albedo of conifer forests in both winter and summer, 50-80% higher evapotranspiration, and therefore only 30-50% of the sensible heat flux of conifers in summer. Therefore, a warming-induced increase in fire frequency that increased the proportion of deciduous forests in the landscape, would act as a negative feedback to regional warming. Changes in thermokarst and the aerial extent of wetlands, lakes, and ponds would alter high-latitude methane flux. There is currently a wide discrepancy among estimates of the size and direction of CO2 flux between high-latitude ecosystems and the atmosphere. These discrepancies relate more strongly to the approach and assumptions for extrapolation than to inconsistencies in the underlying data. Inverse modelling from atmospheric CO2 concentrations suggests that high latitudes are neutral or net sinks for atmospheric CO2 , whereas field measurements suggest that high latitudes are neutral or a net CO2 source. Both approaches rely on assumptions that are difficult to verify. The most parsimonious explanation of the available data is that drying in tundra and disturbance in boreal forest enhance CO2 efflux. Nevertheless, many areas of both tundra and boreal forests remain net sinks due to regional variation in climate and local variation in topographically determined soil moisture. Improved understanding of the role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system requires a concerted research effort that focuses on geographical variation in the processes controlling land-atmosphere exchange, species composition, and ecosystem structure. Future studies must be conducted over a long enough time-period to detect and quantify ecosystem feedbacks.
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Affiliation(s)
- F S Chapin
- Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
| | - A D Mcguire
- US Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
| | - J Randerson
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - R Pielke
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
| | - D Baldocchi
- Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division, PO Box 2456, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
| | - S E Hobbie
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behaviour, University of Minnesota, St. Paul MN 55108, USA
| | - N Roulet
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada H3A 2K6
| | - W Eugster
- Institute of Geography, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
| | - E Kasischke
- ERIM International, Inc., PO Box 134008, Ann Arbor, MI 48113-4008, USA
| | - E B Rastetter
- Ecosystem Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
| | - S A Zimov
- North-East Science Station, PO Box 18, Cherskii, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), 678830 Russia, School of Forestry, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812-1063, USA
| | - S W Running
- North-East Science Station, PO Box 18, Cherskii, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), 678830 Russia, School of Forestry, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812-1063, USA
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