Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Colorectal Cancer Screening With a Blood Test That Meets the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Coverage Decision

Evaluation of long-term benefits and cost-effectiveness of nation-wide colorectal cancer screening strategies in China in 2020-2060: a modelling analysis

Background

Evidence on the long-term benefits and cost-effectiveness of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening strategies in China remains limited. This modelling study aims to address this issue for various CRC screening strategies in China between 2020 and 2060.

Methods

Using a previously developed microsimulation model (MIMIC-CRC) with Chinese epidemiological data, we evaluated four CRC screening strategies targeting population aged 45-74 years: no screening, colonoscopy every 10 years, biennial faecal immunochemical testing (FIT), and a roll-out FIT screening strategy. Screening coverage (invitation) rates from 5% to 100% were analysed. Single-cohort analysis of 100,000 individuals was conducted to estimate the relative cost-effectiveness of each strategy. A multiple-cohort analysis of 100,000 people aged 40+ over 2020-2060 was conducted to project nation-wide long-term benefits and cost-effectiveness.

Findings

In single-cohort analysis, all strategies yielded reductions in CRC incidence and mortality compared to no screening, with colonoscopy outperforming FIT-based strategies at the same invitation rates. In multiple-cohort analysis, among people over 40 years of age in China over 2020-2060, compared to no screening, at invitation rate of 5%, screening by colonoscopy, biennial FIT and roll-out FIT-based approach were estimated to avert 1.2, 0.4, and 0.3 million incident CRCs and 0.2, 0.1, and 0.1 million CRC-related deaths, respectively, compared to no screening (25.4 million incident CRCs and 4.4 million CRC-related deaths), and this preventive effect enlarged as the screening coverage rate increased. At full coverage, colonoscopy achieved the largest reductions (38.2% lower incidence and 43.2% lower mortality) but required the most resources. Biennial FIT and roll-out FIT-based approach screening was slightly less effective but had significant reduced colonoscopy needs (reduction of 83.8% and 85.2%, respectively) and overall cost (reduction of 23.4% and 37.8%, respectively) compared to colonoscopy screening.

Interpretation

Nation-wide implementation of screening would be effective in reducing the burden of CRC in China. Biennial FIT and roll-out FIT-based screening strategies could prevent incident CRC cases and CRC-related deaths with considerably fewer resources than colonoscopy screening. Efforts should be made to increase the screening coverage in China.

Funding

Chinese Academy of Medical Science Innovation Fund for Medical Science (2022-I2M-1-0031); National Natural Science Foundation of China (82173606; 82273726); Beijing Nova Program of Science and Technology (20230484397).

Liquid Biopsy in the Clinical Management of Cancers

Liquid biopsy, a noninvasive diagnosis that examines circulating tumor components in body fluids, is increasingly used in cancer management. An overview of relevant literature emphasizes the current state of liquid biopsy applications in cancer care. Biomarkers in liquid biopsy, particularly circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), circulating tumor RNAs (ctRNA), circulating tumor cells (CTCs), extracellular vesicles (EVs), and other components, offer promising opportunities for early cancer diagnosis, treatment selection, monitoring, and disease assessment. The implementation of liquid biopsy in precision medicine has shown significant potential in various cancer types, including lung cancer, colorectal cancer, breast cancer, and prostate cancer. Advances in genomic and molecular technologies such as next-generation sequencing (NGS) and digital polymerase chain reaction (dPCR) have expanded the utility of liquid biopsy, enabling the detection of somatic variants and actionable genomic alterations in tumors. Liquid biopsy has also demonstrated utility in predicting treatment responses, monitoring minimal residual disease (MRD), and assessing tumor heterogeneity. Nevertheless, standardizing liquid biopsy techniques, interpreting results, and integrating them into the clinical routine remain as challenges. Despite these challenges, liquid biopsy has significant clinical implications in cancer management, offering a dynamic and noninvasive approach to understanding tumor biology and guiding personalized treatment strategies.

Estimated impact and value of blood-based colorectal cancer screening at varied adherence compared with stool-based screening

OBJECTIVE

This analysis estimated the outcomes of triennial blood-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at various adherence, including perfect adherence, compared with triennial multi-target stool DNA (mt-sDNA) screening at the reported real-world adherence rate.

METHODS

The validated CRC-AIM model simulated a US cohort of average-risk individuals receiving triennial screening with mt-sDNA or blood-based test from ages 45 to 75 years. Modeled specificity and sensitivity were based on reported data. Adherence was set at a real-world rate of 65.6% for mt-sDNA and at 65.6%, relative 10% incremental increases from 65.6%, or 100% for the blood-based test. Costs of mt-sDNA and the blood-based test were based on prices for clinically available tests ($508.87 and $895, respectively). Value-based pricing was estimated at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000.

RESULTS

Both tests resulted in life-years gained (LYG), reduced CRC cases, and reduced deaths versus no screening. With adherence for mt-sDNA set at 65.6% and for blood-based test set at 100%, mt-sDNA resulted in 30% more LYG, 52% more averted CRC cases, and 32% more averted CRC deaths. At reported sensitivity and specificity rates, mt-sDNA at 65.6% adherence dominates (is more effective and less costly) the blood-based test at any adherence. There was no price at which triennial screening with the blood-based test at any adherence was cost-effective compared with mt-sDNA at 65.6% adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

Triennial screening with mt-sDNA resulted in better clinical outcomes at a lower cost compared with the modeled blood-based test even at perfect adherence, supporting application of blood-based tests only as a secondary screening option.

Population health outcomes of blood-based screening for colorectal cancer in comparison to current screening modalities: insights from a discrete-event simulation model incorporating longitudinal adherence

AIM

Insufficient adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening impedes individual and population health benefits, with about one-third of individuals non-adherent to available screening options. The impact of poor adherence is inadequately considered in most health economics models, limiting the evaluation of real-world population-level screening outcomes. This study introduces the CAN-SCREEN (Colorectal cANcer SCReening Economics and adherENce) model, utilizing real-world adherence scenarios to assess the effectiveness of a blood-based test (BBT) compared to existing strategies.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The CAN-SCREEN model evaluates various CRC screening strategies per 1,000 screened individuals for ages 45-75. Adherence is modeled in two ways: (1) full adherence and (2) longitudinally declining adherence. BBT performance is based on recent pivotal trial data while existing strategies are informed using literature. The full adherence model is calibrated using previously published Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models. Outcomes, including life-years gained (LYG), CRC cases averted, CRC deaths averted, and colonoscopies, are compared to no screening.

RESULTS

Longitudinal adherence modeling reveals differences in the relative ordering of health outcomes and resource utilization, as measured by the number of colonoscopies performed per 1,000, between screening modalities. BBT outperforms the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and the multitarget stool DNA (mtsDNA) test with more CRC deaths averted (13) compared to FIT and mtsDNA (7, 11), more CRC cases averted (27 vs. 16, 22) and higher LYG (214 vs. 157, 199). BBT yields fewer CRC deaths averted compared to colonoscopy (13, 15) but requires fewer colonoscopies (1,053 vs. 1,928).

LIMITATIONS

Due to limited data, the CAN-SCREEN model with longitudinal adherence leverages evidence-informed assumptions for the natural history and real-world longitudinal adherence to screening.

CONCLUSIONS

The CAN-SCREEN model demonstrates that amongst non-invasive CRC screening strategies, those with higher adherence yield more favorable health outcomes as measured by CRC deaths averted, CRC cases averted, and LYG.