Nomogram to Predict Cancer Specific Survival in Patients with Pathological Stage IA Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Prognostic factors and predictive model construction in patients with non-small cell lung cancer: a retrospective study

Objective

The purpose of this study was to construct a nomogram model based on the general characteristics, histological features, pathological and immunohistochemical results, and inflammatory and nutritional indicators of patients so as to effectively predict the overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) after surgery.

Methods

Patients with NSCLC who received surgical treatment in our hospital from January 2017 to June 2021 were selected as the study subjects. The predictors of OS and PFS were evaluated by univariate and multivariable Cox regression analysis using the Cox proportional risk model. Based on the results of multi-factor Cox proportional risk regression analysis, a nomogram model was established using the R survival package. The bootstrap method (repeated sampling for 1 000 times) was used to internally verify the nomogram model, and C-index was used to represent the prediction performance of the nomogram model. The calibration graph method was used to visually represent its prediction compliance, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the application value of the model.

Results

Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors and to construct a nomogram of postoperative survival and disease progression in operable NSCLC patients, with C-index values of 0.927 (907-0.947) and 0.944 (0.922-0.966), respectively. The results showed that the model had high predictive performance. Calibration curves for 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year OS and PFS show a high degree of agreement between the predicted probability and the actual observed probability. In addition, the results of the DCA curve show that the model has good clinical application value.

Conclusion

We established a predictive model of survival prognosis and disease progression in patients with non-small cell lung cancer after surgery, which has good predictive performance and can guide clinicians to make the best clinical decision.

Survival analysis and clinicopathological features of patients with stage IA lung adenocarcinoma

Background

With the development of medical technology and change of life habits, early-stage lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) has become more common. This study aimed to systematically analyzed clinicopathological factors associated to the overall survival (OS) of patients with Stage IA LUAD.

Methods

A total of 5942 Stage IA LUAD patients were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Kaplan-Meier methods and log-rank tests were used to compare the differences in OS. A nomogram constructed based on the Cox regression was evaluated by Concordance index (C index), calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and area under curve (AUC). And 136 patients were recruited from Shandong Province Hospital for external validation.

Results

Cox analysis regression indicated that 12 factors, such as Diagnosis to Treatment Interval (DTI) and Income Level, were independent prognostic factors and were included to establish the nomogram. The C-index of our novel model was 0.702, 0.724 and 0.872 in the training, internal and external validation cohorts, respectively. The 3-year and 5-year survival AUCs and calibration curves showed excellent agreement in each cohort. Some new factors in the SEER database, including DTI and Income Level, were firstly confirmed as independent prognostic factors of Stage IA LUAD patients. The distribution of these factors in the T1a, T1b, and T1c subgroups differed and had different effects on survival.

Conclusion

We summarized 12 factors that affect prognosis and constructed a nomogram to predict OS of Stage IA LUAD patients who underwent operation. For the first time, new SEER database parameters, including DTI and Income Level, were proved to be survival-related.

Investigation of the non-small cell lung cancer patients with bronchus involvements: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

We aimed to explore the prognostic differences among T1-4N0-2M0 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with bronchus involvements and to validate the T category of these patients in an external cohort.

METHODS

Univariable and multivariable Cox analysis was performed to determine the prognostic factors. Kaplan-Meier method with a log-rank test was used to compare overall survival differences between groups. Propensity score matching method was used to minimize the bias caused by the imbalanced covariates between groups.

RESULTS

A total of 169 390 eligible T1-4N0-2M0 NSCLC cases were included. There were 2354, 3367, 1638, 75, 87 585, 42 056, 19 246, and 13 069 cases in the group of superficial tumors of any size with invasive component limited to bronchial wall (T1-bronchus), tumors involving main stem bronchus ≥2 cm from carina (T2-main bronchus [≥2 cm]), tumors involving main stem bronchus <2 cm from carina (T2-main bronchus [<2 cm]), tumors with carina invasion (T4-carina), T1, T2, T3, and T4, respectively. Multivariable Cox analysis indicated that T1-bronchus patients had the best prognosis; T2-main bronchus (≥2 cm) and T2-main bronchus (<2 cm) patients had similar prognosis both in the entire cohort and in several subgroups. Survival curves showed that T1-bronchus and T1 patients had similar survival rates; the survivals of T2-main bronchus patients regardless of the distance from carina were comparable to those of T2 patients, and the survivals of T4-carina patients were also similar to those of T4 patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results validated and supported the current T category for the patients with bronchus involvements, which might provide certain reference value for the revisions of T category in the next version of the tumor-node-metastasis stage classification.

Clinical factors influencing long-term survival in a real-life cohort of early stage non-small-cell lung cancer patients in Spain

Background

Current prognosis in oncology is reduced to the tumour stage and performance status, leaving out many other factors that may impact the patient´s management. Prognostic stratification of early stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with poor prognosis after surgery is of considerable clinical relevance. The objective of this study was to identify clinical factors associated with long-term overall survival in a real-life cohort of patients with stage I-II NSCLC and develop a prognostic model that identifies features associated with poor prognosis and stratifies patients by risk.

Methods

This is a cohort study including 505 patients, diagnosed with stage I-II NSCLC, who underwent curative surgical procedures at a tertiary hospital in Madrid, Spain.

Results

Median OS (in months) was 63.7 (95% CI, 58.7-68.7) for the whole cohort, 62.4 in patients submitted to surgery and 65 in patients submitted to surgery and adjuvant treatment. The univariate analysis estimated that a female diagnosed with NSCLC has a 0.967 (95% CI 0.936 - 0.999) probability of survival one year after diagnosis and a 0.784 (95% CI 0.712 - 0.863) five years after diagnosis. For males, these probabilities drop to 0.904 (95% CI 0.875 - 0.934) and 0.613 (95% CI 0.566 - 0.665), respectively. Multivariable analysis shows that sex, age at diagnosis, type of treatment, ECOG-PS, and stage are statistically significant variables (p<0.10). According to the Cox regression model, age over 50, ECOG-PS 1 or 2, and stage ll are risk factors for survival (HR>1) while adjuvant chemotherapy is a good prognostic variable (HR<1). The prognostic model identified a high-risk profile defined by males over 71 years old, former smokers, treated with surgery, ECOG-PS 2.

Conclusions

The results of the present study found that, overall, adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with the best long-term OS in patients with resected NSCLC. Age, stage and ECOG-PS were also significant factors to take into account when making decisions regarding adjuvant therapy.

Occult Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: An Underappreciated Disease

Background: The number of researches on occult non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is modest. Herein, we defined the clinicopathological features, prognosis and survival outcome of this underappreciated tumor, with purpose of obtaining a clearer picture on this disease. Methods: The entire cohort was categorized into two groups (occult NSCLC and other NSCLC) and further into five groups (occult, T1, T2, T3 and T4). A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalized Cox regression model was performed to identify the prognostic indicators. A nomogram and a risk-classifying system were formulated. Kaplan–Meier with Log-rank method was carried out to compare overall survival (OS) and cancer specific survival (CSS) differences between groups. Results: 59,046 eligible NSCLC cases (occult NSCLC: 1158 cases; other NSCLC: 57,888 cases) were included. Occult NSCLC accounted for 2.0% of the included cases. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, sex, tumor location, histology, grade and surgery were prognostic factors for OS. The corresponding prognostic nomogram classified occult NSCLC patients into low-risk and high-risk group, and its performance was acceptable. Survival curves demonstrated that occult NSCLC patients exhibited worse survivals than other NSCLC. In further analyses, the survival of low-risk occult NSCLC and stage T3 NSCLC were comparable, and the high-risk occult NSCLC patients still owned the worst survival rate. Conclusions: Occult NSCLC was an aggressive tumor with poor prognosis, and surgery was the preferred treatment. More attention should be paid to this overlooked disease due to no evidence of tumor imaging.

Prognostic Nomograms Based on Ground Glass Opacity and Subtype of Lung Adenocarcinoma for Patients with Pathological Stage IA Lung Adenocarcinoma

The value of lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) subtypes and ground glass opacity (GGO) in pathological stage IA invasive adenocarcinoma (IAC) has been poorly understood, and reports of their association with each other have been limited. In the current study, we retrospectively reviewed 484 patients with pathological stage IA invasive adenocarcinoma (IAC) at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center from March 2011 to August 2018. Patients with at least 5% solid or micropapillary presence were categorized as high-risk subtypes. Independent indicators for disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were identified by multivariate Cox regression analysis. Based on these indicators, we developed prognostic nomograms of OS and DFS. The predictive performance of the two nomograms were assessed by calibration plots. A total of 412 patients were recognized as having the low-risk subtype, and 359 patients had a GGO. Patients with the low-risk subtype had a high rate of GGO nodules (p < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the high-risk subtype and GGO components were independent prognostic factors for OS (LUAD subtype: p = 0.002; HR 3.624; 95% CI 1.263–10.397; GGO component: p = 0.001; HR 3.186; 95% CI 1.155–8.792) and DFS (LUAD subtype: p = 0.001; HR 2.284; 95% CI 1.448–5.509; GGO component: p = 0.003; HR 1.877; 95% CI 1.013–3.476). The C-indices of the nomogram based on the LUAD subtype and GGO components to predict OS and DFS were 0.866 (95% CI 0.841–0.891) and 0.667 (95% CI 0.586–0.748), respectively. Therefore, the high-risk subtype and GGO components were potential prognostic biomarkers for patients with stage IA IAC, and prognostic models based on these indicators showed good predictive performance and satisfactory agreement between observational and predicted survival.