Hepatocellular Carcinoma Chemoprevention with Generic Agents

Natural History of Indeterminate Liver Nodules in Patients With Advanced Liver Disease: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Indeterminate liver nodules (ILNs) are frequently encountered on diagnostic imaging after positive hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance results, but their natural history remains unclear.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study among patients with ≥1 newly detected LI-RADS 3 (LR-3) lesion ≥1 cm or LI-RADS 4 (LR-4) lesion of any size (per LI-RADS v2018) between January 2018 and December 2019. Patients were followed with repeat imaging at each site per institutional standard of care. Multivariable Fine-Gray models were used to evaluate associations between potential risk factors and patient-level time-to-HCC diagnosis, with death and liver transplantation as competing risks.

RESULTS

Of 307 patients with ILNs, 208 had LR-3 lesions, 83 had LR-4 lesions, and 16 had both LR-3 and LR-4 lesions. HCC incidence rates for patients with LR-3 and LR-4 lesions were 110 (95% CI 70-150) and 420 (95% CI 310-560) per 1,000 person-year, respectively. In multivariable analysis, incident HCC among patients with LR-3 lesions was associated with older age, thrombocytopenia (platelet count ≤150 ×10 9 /L), and elevated serum alpha-fetoprotein levels. Among those with LR-4 lesions, incident HCC was associated with a maximum lesion diameter >1 cm. Although most patients had follow-up computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, 13.7% had no follow-up imaging and another 14.3% had follow-up ultrasound only.

DISCUSSION

ILNs have a high but variable risk of HCC, with 4-fold higher risk in patients with LR-4 lesions than those with LR-3 lesions, highlighting a need for accurate risk stratification tools and close follow-up in this population.

Global trends in hepatocellular carcinoma epidemiology: implications for screening, prevention and therapy

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality rates are increasing globally, and particularly in the Western world. Cirrhosis remains the predominant risk factor for HCC. However, epidemiological shifts in the incidence of HCC from patients with virus-related liver disease to those with non-viral aetiologies, including alcohol-associated and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, have important implications for prevention, surveillance and treatment. Hepatitis B vaccination and antiviral therapy for hepatitis B and C are effective for primary prevention of virus-related HCCs, but chemoprevention strategies for non-viral liver disease remain an unmet need. Emerging data suggest associations between aspirin, statins, metformin and coffee and reduced HCC incidence, although none has been proved to be causally related. Secondary prevention of HCC via semi-annual surveillance is associated with improvements in early detection and thus reduced mortality; however, current tools, including abdominal ultrasonography, have suboptimal sensitivity for the detection of early stage HCC, particularly in patients with obesity and/or non-viral liver disease. Promising blood-based or imaging-based surveillance strategies are emerging, although these approaches require further validation before adoption in clinical practice. In the interim, efforts should be focused on maximizing use of the existing surveillance tools given their prevalent underuse globally. Remarkable advances have been made in the treatment of HCC, including expanded eligibility for surgical therapies, improved patient selection for locoregional treatments and increased systemic treatment options, including immune-checkpoint inhibitors. In this Review, we discuss trends in the epidemiology of HCC and their implications for screening, prevention and therapy.

Statin use is associated with better post-operative prognosis among patients with hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The high postoperative recurrence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a significant challenge. Patient metabolic factors are potential disease modifiers and should be examined as risk factors for postoperative prognosis. Here, we assessed the association between long-term statin use and HCC recurrence after surgical resection of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related HCC.

METHODS

Patients who initially underwent curative resection for HBV-related HCC between 2005 and 2015 were recruited and followed up until December 2019. Patients were classified into statin user and non-statin user groups based on whether or not they had been prescribed statins for ≥2 years. The primary outcome was HCC recurrence, and the secondary outcome was liver-related mortality. The cumulative incidence by statin use was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using multivariable Cox regression.

RESULTS

Among 5653 patients with a median 6.1 years of follow-up, HCC recurrence and liver-related mortality occurred in 1603 and 316 patients, respectively. The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC recurrence in the statin user group (15.9%) was significantly lower than that in the non-user group (21.3%; p = .019). From multivariable Cox regression analysis, statin use was significantly associated with a reduced risk of HCC recurrence (aHR 0.77, 95% CI: 0.61-0.98; p = .035) and liver-related mortality (aHR 0.48, 95% CI: 0.25-0.90; p = .023).

CONCLUSION

Long-term statin use was significantly associated with reduced risk of HCC recurrence and liver-related mortality after curative resection of HBV-related HCC.

Suboptimal Performance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prediction Models in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-Related Cirrhosis

This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of pre-existing well-validated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models, established in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who started potent antiviral therapy (AVT). We retrospectively reviewed the cases of 1339 treatment-naïve patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who started AVT (median period, 56.8 months). The scores of the pre-existing HCC risk prediction models were calculated at the time of AVT initiation. HCC developed in 211 patients (15.1%), and the cumulative probability of HCC development at 5 years was 14.6%. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.023), lower platelet count (aHR, 0.997), lower serum albumin level (aHR, 0.578), and greater LS value (aHR, 1.012) were associated with HCC development. Harrell’s c-indices of the PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, modified REACH-B, CAMD, aMAP, HCC-RESCUE, AASL-HCC, Toronto HCC Risk Index, PLAN-B, APA-B, CAGE-B, and SAGE-B models were suboptimal in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis, ranging from 0.565 to 0.667. Nevertheless, almost all patients were well stratified into low-, intermediate-, or high-risk groups according to each model (all log-rank p < 0.05), except for HCC-RESCUE (p = 0.080). Since all low-risk patients had cirrhosis at baseline, they had unneglectable cumulative incidence of HCC development (5-year incidence, 4.9−7.5%). Pre-existing risk prediction models for patients with chronic hepatitis B showed suboptimal predictive performances for the assessment of HCC development in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis.