Phase-space overlap measures. I. Fail-safe bias detection in free energies calculated by molecular simulation

Zooming across the Alchemical Space

Alchemical transformations, whereby chemical species are modified seamlessly, represent a powerful tool in molecular simulations and free-energy calculations, with a broad range of applications. A general-extent, or alchemical parameter, λ ∈ [0,1], describes the gradual transition between the initial and final states of the transformation, and its discretization critically affects the reliability and efficiency of the free-energy calculations. For transformations involving large moieties, free-energy perturbation (FEP) and thermodynamic integration (TI) require numerous intermediates, or λ-states, to ensure appropriate overlap of the configurational ensembles and suitable convergence of the simulation, each state demanding extensive sampling, which burdens computational feasibility. To address this limitation, we combine λ-dynamics─treating λ as a dynamic variable─with the enhanced-sampling approach well-tempered metadynamics-extended adaptive biasing force (WTM-eABF), forming the basis of WTM-λABF. By handling λ as a continuously varying collective variable (CV) and applying a bin-discretized bias, WTM-λABF efficiently explores the λ-space, even when the latter is stratified in numerous intermediates. Calculations of free-energies of hydration, of protein-ligand binding, and of amino-acid mutations in proteins reveal that WTM-λABF consistently converges faster than standard FEP or λ-ABF, with its advantages becoming more pronounced as the number of intermediates rises. We find that WTM-λABF can handle alchemical transformations efficiently with as many as 1,000 intermediates, allowing transformations involving large moieties, or significant potential-energy changes, to be tackled with utmost accuracy. Additionally, its rapid exploration of the continuous λ-space accelerates sampling in the orthogonal space. We are confident that WTM-λABF has the potential to serve as a foundational method for routine applications relevant to chemistry and biophysics, ranging from drug discovery to protein engineering and design.

IMERGE-FEP: Improving Relative Free Energy Calculation Convergence with Chemical Intermediates

Alchemical free energy calculations are becoming an increasingly prevalent tool in drug discovery efforts. Over the past decade, significant progress has been made in automating various aspects of this technique. However, one aspect hampering wider application is the construction of perturbation networks to connect ligands of interest. More specifically, ligand pairs with large dissimilarities should be avoided since they can lower convergence and decrease accuracy. Here, we propose a technique for automatic generation of intermediate molecules to break up problematic edges─calculations connecting two different ligands or molecules─into smaller perturbations. To this end, a modular tool was developed that generates intermediates for a molecule pair by enumerating R-group combinations called IMERGE-FEP (Intermediate MolEculaR GEnerator for Free Energy Perturbation). Intermediate enumeration of multiple, representative congeneric series showed that intermediates increase similarity regarding shared substructures, geometry, and LOMAP scores. Taken together, this tool eases integration of intermediate steps into free energy calculation protocols.

Machine learning in molecular biophysics: Protein allostery, multi-level free energy simulations, and lipid phase transitions

Machine learning (ML) techniques have been making major impacts on all areas of science and engineering, including biophysics. In this review, we discuss several applications of ML to biophysical problems based on our recent research. The topics include the use of ML techniques to identify hotspot residues in allosteric proteins using deep mutational scanning data and to analyze how mutations of these hotspots perturb co-operativity in the framework of a statistical thermodynamic model, to improve the accuracy of free energy simulations by integrating data from different levels of potential energy functions, and to determine the phase transition temperature of lipid membranes. Through these examples, we illustrate the unique value of ML in extracting patterns or parameters from complex data sets, as well as the remaining limitations. By implementing the ML approaches in the context of physically motivated models or computational frameworks, we are able to gain a deeper mechanistic understanding or better convergence in numerical simulations. We conclude by briefly discussing how the introduced models can be further expanded to tackle more complex problems.

Impact of Varying Velocities and Solvation Boxes on Alchemical Free-Energy Simulations

Alchemical free-energy perturbation (FEP) is an accurate and thermodynamically stringent way to estimate relative energies for the binding of small ligands to biological macromolecules. It has repeatedly been pointed out that a single simulation normally stays near the starting point in phase space and therefore underestimates the uncertainty of the results. Therefore, it is better to run an ensemble of independent simulations. Traditionally, such an ensemble has been generated by using different starting velocities. We argue that it is better to use also other random choices made during the setup of the simulations, in particular the solvation of the solute. We show here that such solvent-induced independent simulations (SIS) sometimes give a larger standard deviation and slightly different results for the binding of 42 ligands to five different proteins, viz. human N-terminal bromodomain 4, the Leu99Ala mutant of T4 lysozyme, dihydrofolate reductase, blood-clotting factor Xa, and ferritin. SIS does not involve any increase in the time consumption. Therefore, we strongly recommend the use of SIS (in addition to different velocities) to start independent simulations. Other random or uncertain choices in the setup of the simulated systems, e.g., the selection of residues with alternative conformations or positions of added protons, may also be used to enhance the variation in independent simulations.

Fine-tuning molecular mechanics force fields to experimental free energy measurements

Alchemical free energy methods using molecular mechanics (MM) force fields are essential tools for predicting thermodynamic properties of small molecules, especially via free energy calculations that can estimate quantities relevant for drug discovery such as affinities, selectivities, the impact of target mutations, and ADMET properties. While traditional MM forcefields rely on hand-crafted, discrete atom types and parameters, modern approaches based on graph neural networks (GNNs) learn continuous embedding vectors that represent chemical environments from which MM parameters can be generated. Excitingly, GNN parameterization approaches provide a fully end-to-end differentiable model that offers the possibility of systematically improving these models using experimental data. In this study, we treat a pretrained GNN force field-here, espaloma-0.3.2-as a foundation simulation model and fine-tune its charge model using limited quantities of experimental hydration free energy data, with the goal of assessing the degree to which this can systematically improve the prediction of other related free energies. We demonstrate that a highly efficient "one-shot fine-tuning" method using an exponential (Zwanzig) reweighting free energy estimator can improve prediction accuracy without the need to resimulate molecular configurations. To achieve this "one-shot" improvement, we demonstrate the importance of using effective sample size (ESS) regularization strategies to retain good overlap between initial and fine-tuned force fields. Moreover, we show that leveraging low-rank projections of embedding vectors can achieve comparable accuracy improvements as higher-dimensional approaches in a variety of data-size regimes. Our results demonstrate that linearly-perturbative fine-tuning of foundation model electrostatic parameters to limited experimental data offers a cost-effective strategy that achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting hydration free energies on the FreeSolv dataset.

Convergence criteria for single-step free-energy calculations: the relation between the Π bias measure and the sample variance

Free energy calculations play a crucial role in simulating chemical processes, enzymatic reactions, and drug design. However, assessing the reliability and convergence of these calculations remains a challenge. This study focuses on single-step free-energy calculations using thermodynamic perturbation. It explores how the sample distributions influence the estimated results and evaluates the reliability of various convergence criteria, including Kofke's bias measure Π and the standard deviation of the energy difference ΔU, σ ΔU . The findings reveal that for Gaussian distributions, there is a straightforward relationship between Π and σ ΔU , free energies can be accurately approximated using a second-order cumulant expansion, and reliable results are attainable for σ ΔU up to 25 kcal mol-1. However, interpreting non-Gaussian distributions is more complex. If the distribution is skewed towards more positive values than a Gaussian, converging the free energy becomes easier, rendering standard convergence criteria overly stringent. Conversely, distributions that are skewed towards more negative values than a Gaussian present greater challenges in achieving convergence, making standard criteria unreliable. We propose a practical approach to assess the convergence of estimated free energies.

Adaptive lambda schemes for efficient relative binding free energy calculation

The relative free energy perturbation (RFEP) calculation is one of the most theoretically sound computational chemistry approaches for the binding affinity prediction. However, its application is often hindered by the complexity of the calculation choices and the requirement of expertise in the field. Improper lambda scheme of RFEP may result in deviations from an accurate description of the perturbation process and is prone to erroneous affinity predictions. To address such challenges, an automated adaptive lambda method is proposed where the adaptive lambda schemes are obtained through a split-and-merge algorithm based on the pilot runs. The newly established workflow along with a series of improvements to the perturbation settings increases the consistency of the RFEP calculation results. Comparing the pilot and adaptive lambda schemes, the latter demonstrated improvements in convergence and reproducibility and lowered the mean unsigned error and the root-mean-square error. Overall, the adaptive lambda method is a reliable and robust choice to predict small molecule relative binding free energy and can be capitalized to benefit routine RFEP calculations for drug discovery projects.

Interplay of halogen bonding and solvation in protein-ligand binding

Halogen bonding is increasingly utilized in efforts to achieve high affinity and selectivity of molecules designed to bind proteins, making it paramount to understand the relationship between structure, dynamics, and thermodynamic driving forces. We present a detailed analysis addressing this problem using a series of protein-ligand complexes involving single halogen substitutions - F, Cl, Br, and I - and nearly identical structures. Isothermal titration calorimetry reveals an increasingly favorable binding enthalpy from F to I that correlates with the halogen size and σ-hole electropositive character, but is partially counteracted by unfavorable entropy, which is constant from F to Cl and Br, but worse for I. Consequently, the binding free energy is roughly equal for Cl, Br, and I. QM and solvation-free-energy calculations reflect an intricate balance between halogen bonding, hydrogen bonds, and solvation. These advances have the potential to aid future drug design initiatives involving halogenated compounds.

Modern Alchemical Free Energy Methods for Drug Discovery Explained

This Perspective provides a contextual explanation of the current state-of-the-art alchemical free energy methods and their role in drug discovery as well as highlights select emerging technologies. The narrative attempts to answer basic questions about what goes on "under the hood" in free energy simulations and provide general guidelines for how to run simulations and analyze the results. It is the hope that this work will provide a valuable introduction to students and scientists in the field.

Data-Driven Approach to Coarse-Graining Simple Liquids in Confinement

We propose a data-driven framework for identifying coarse-grained (CG) Lennard-Jones (LJ) potential parameters in confined systems for simple liquids. Our approach involves the use of a Deep Neural Network (DNN) that is trained to approximate the solution of the Inverse Liquid State (ILST) problem for confined systems. The DNN model inherently incorporates essential physical characteristics specific to confined fluids, enabling an accurate prediction of inhomogeneity effects. By utilizing transfer learning, we predict single-site LJ potentials of simple multiatomic liquids confined in a slit-like channel, which effectively replicate both the fluid structure and molecular force of the target All-Atom (AA) system when the electrostatic interactions are not dominant. In addition, we showcase the synergy between the data-driven approach and the well-known Bottom-Up coarse-graining method utilizing Relative-Entropy (RE) Minimization. Through the sequential utilization of these two methods, the robustness of the iterative RE method is significantly augmented, leading to a remarkable enhancement in convergence.

Learned mappings for targeted free energy perturbation between peptide conformations

Targeted free energy perturbation uses an invertible mapping to promote configuration space overlap and the convergence of free energy estimates. However, developing suitable mappings can be challenging. Wirnsberger et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 153, 144112 (2020)] demonstrated the use of machine learning to train deep neural networks that map between Boltzmann distributions for different thermodynamic states. Here, we adapt their approach to the free energy differences of a flexible bonded molecule, deca-alanine, with harmonic biases and different spring centers. When the neural network is trained until "early stopping"-when the loss value of the test set increases-we calculate accurate free energy differences between thermodynamic states with spring centers separated by 1 Å and sometimes 2 Å. For more distant thermodynamic states, the mapping does not produce structures representative of the target state, and the method does not reproduce reference calculations.

Accurate and Efficient Multilevel Free Energy Simulations with Neural Network-Assisted Enhanced Sampling

Free energy differences (ΔF) are essential to quantitative characterization and understanding of chemical and biological processes. Their direct estimation with an accurate quantum mechanical potential is of great interest and yet impractical due to high computational cost and incompatibility with typical alchemical free energy protocols. One promising solution is the multilevel free energy simulation in which the estimate of ΔF at an inexpensive low level of theory is combined with the correction toward a higher level of theory. The poor configurational overlap generally expected between the two levels of theory, however, presents a major challenge. We overcome this challenge by using a deep neural network model and enhanced sampling simulations. An adversarial autoencoder is used to identify a low-dimensional (latent) space that compactly represents the degrees of freedom that encode the distinct distributions at the two levels of theory. Enhanced sampling in this latent space is then used to drive the sampling of configurations that predominantly contribute to the free energy correction. Results for both gas phase and condensed phase systems demonstrate that this data-driven approach offers high accuracy and efficiency with great potential for scalability to complex systems.

Bridging semiempirical and ab initio QM/MM potentials by Gaussian process regression and its sparse variants for free energy simulation

Free energy simulations that employ combined quantum mechanical and molecular mechanical (QM/MM) potentials at ab initio QM (AI) levels are computationally highly demanding. Here, we present a machine-learning-facilitated approach for obtaining AI/MM-quality free energy profiles at the cost of efficient semiempirical QM/MM (SE/MM) methods. Specifically, we use Gaussian process regression (GPR) to learn the potential energy corrections needed for an SE/MM level to match an AI/MM target along the minimum free energy path (MFEP). Force modification using gradients of the GPR potential allows us to improve configurational sampling and update the MFEP. To adaptively train our model, we further employ the sparse variational GP (SVGP) and streaming sparse GPR (SSGPR) methods, which efficiently incorporate previous sample information without significantly increasing the training data size. We applied the QM-(SS)GPR/MM method to the solution-phase SN2 Menshutkin reaction, NH3+CH3Cl→CH3NH3++Cl-, using AM1/MM and B3LYP/6-31+G(d,p)/MM as the base and target levels, respectively. For 4000 configurations sampled along the MFEP, the iteratively optimized AM1-SSGPR-4/MM model reduces the energy error in AM1/MM from 18.2 to 4.4 kcal/mol. Although not explicitly fitting forces, our method also reduces the key internal force errors from 25.5 to 11.1 kcal/mol/Å and from 30.2 to 10.3 kcal/mol/Å for the N-C and C-Cl bonds, respectively. Compared to the uncorrected simulations, the AM1-SSGPR-4/MM method lowers the predicted free energy barrier from 28.7 to 11.7 kcal/mol and decreases the reaction free energy from -12.4 to -41.9 kcal/mol, bringing these results into closer agreement with their AI/MM and experimental benchmarks.

Perspective: Reference-Potential Methods for the Study of Thermodynamic Properties in Chemical Processes: Theory, Applications, and Pitfalls

In silico investigations of enzymatic reactions and chemical reactions in condensed phases often suffer from formidable computational costs due to a large number of degrees of freedom and enormous important volume in phase space. Usually, accuracy must be compromised to trade for efficiency by lowering the reliability of the Hamiltonians employed or reducing the sampling time. Reference-potential methods (RPMs) offer an alternative approach to reaching high accuracy of simulation without much loss of efficiency. In this Perspective, we summarize the idea of RPMs and showcase some recent applications. Most importantly, the pitfalls of these methods are also discussed, and remedies to these pitfalls are presented.

Routine Molecular Dynamics Simulations Including Nuclear Quantum Effects: From Force Fields to Machine Learning Potentials

We report the implementation of a multi-CPU and multi-GPU massively parallel platform dedicated to the explicit inclusion of nuclear quantum effects (NQEs) in the Tinker-HP molecular dynamics (MD) package. The platform, denoted Quantum-HP, exploits two simulation strategies: the Ring-Polymer Molecular Dynamics (RPMD) that provides exact structural properties at the cost of a MD simulation in an extended space of multiple replicas and the adaptive Quantum Thermal Bath (adQTB) that imposes the quantum distribution of energy on a classical system via a generalized Langevin thermostat and provides computationally affordable and accurate (though approximate) NQEs. We discuss some implementation details, efficient numerical schemes, and parallelization strategies and quickly review the GPU acceleration of our code. Our implementation allows an efficient inclusion of NQEs in MD simulations for very large systems, as demonstrated by scaling tests on water boxes with more than 200,000 atoms (simulated using the AMOEBA polarizable force field). We test the compatibility of the approach with Tinker-HP's recently introduced Deep-HP machine learning potentials module by computing water properties using the DeePMD potential with adQTB thermostatting. Finally, we show that the platform is also compatible with the alchemical free energy estimation capabilities of Tinker-HP and fast enough to perform simulations. Therefore, we study how NQEs affect the hydration free energy of small molecules solvated with the recently developed Q-AMOEBA water force field. Overall, the Quantum-HP platform allows users to perform routine quantum MD simulations of large condensed-phase systems and will help to shed new light on the quantum nature of important interactions in biological matter.

ACES: Optimized Alchemically Enhanced Sampling

We present an alchemical enhanced sampling (ACES) method implemented in the GPU-accelerated AMBER free energy MD engine. The methods hinges on the creation of an "enhanced sampling state" by reducing or eliminating selected potential energy terms and interactions that lead to kinetic traps and conformational barriers while maintaining those terms that curtail the need to otherwise sample large volumes of phase space. For example, the enhanced sampling state might involve transforming regions of a ligand and/or protein side chain into a noninteracting "dummy state" with internal electrostatics and torsion angle terms turned off. The enhanced sampling state is connected to a real-state end point through a Hamiltonian replica exchange (HREMD) framework that is facilitated by newly developed alchemical transformation pathways and smoothstep softcore potentials. This creates a counterdiffusion of real and enhanced-sampling states along the HREMD network. The effect of a differential response of the environment to the real and enhanced-sampling states is minimized by leveraging the dual topology framework in AMBER to construct a counterbalancing HREMD network in the opposite alchemical direction with the same (or similar) real and enhanced sampling states at inverted end points. The method has been demonstrated in a series of test cases of increasing complexity where traditional MD, and in several cases alternative REST2-like enhanced sampling methods, are shown to fail. The hydration free energy for acetic acid was shown to be independent of the starting conformation, and the values for four additional edge case molecules from the FreeSolv database were shown to have a significantly closer agreement with experiment using ACES. The method was further able to handle different rotamer states in a Cdk2 ligand identified as fractionally occupied in crystal structures. Finally, ACES was applied to T4-lysozyme and demonstrated that the side chain distribution of V111χ1 could be reliably reproduced for the apo state, bound to p-xylene, and in p-xylene→ benzene transformations. In these cases, the ACES method is shown to be highly robust and superior to a REST2-like enhanced sampling implementation alone.

AMBER Free Energy Tools: A New Framework for the Design of Optimized Alchemical Transformation Pathways

We develop a framework for the design of optimized alchemical transformation pathways in free energy simulations using nonlinear mixing and a new functional form for so-called "softcore" potentials. We describe the implementation and testing of this framework in the GPU-accelerated AMBER software suite. The new optimized alchemical transformation pathways integrate a number of important features, including (1) the use of smoothstep functions to stabilize behavior near the transformation end points, (2) consistent power scaling of Coulomb and Lennard-Jones (LJ) interactions with unitless control parameters to maintain balance of electrostatic attractions and exchange repulsions, (3) pairwise form based on the LJ contact radius for the effective interaction distance with separation-shifted scaling, and (4) rigorous smoothing of the potential at the nonbonded cutoff boundary. The new softcore potential form is combined with smoothly transforming nonlinear λ weights for mixing specific potential energy terms, along with flexible λ-scheduling features, to enable robust and stable alchemical transformation pathways. The resulting pathways are demonstrated and tested, and shown to be superior to the traditional methods in terms of numerical stability and minimal variance of the free energy estimates for all cases considered. The framework presented here can be used to design new alchemical enhanced sampling methods, and leveraged in robust free energy workflows for large ligand data sets.

Partition of the Reactive Species of the Suzuki-Miyaura Reaction between Aqueous and Micellar Environments

The Suzuki-Miyaura reaction between the aryl halide (1) and the phenyl boronic acid (2), in the presence of the palladium(0) complex (3) as catalyst, gives the cross-coupling product (4) in quantitative yield when performed in basic aqueous solution of the nonionic surfactant Kolliphor-EL (K-EL). The partition between the aqueous and micellar environments of the species of this reaction has been investigated by means of Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations. Starting from the K-EL molecules dispersed in water, a micelle model has been generated by MD simulations, adopting the 2016H66 force field. Reagent and product species have been described with the same force field, once the reliability of this force field has been tested comparing the n-octanol/water partition free energies calculated from the MD and Free Energy Perturbation (FEP) method with those obtained from the quantum-mechanical SMD method. The potential of mean force for the transfer process between water and the micellar phase of the different species has been calculated by the MD simulations and the Umbrella Sampling (US) method. The overall picture that emerges from these results confirms that the molecular species involved in this reaction prefers the micellar environment and concentrates in different but close zones of the micelle. This supports the experimental evidence that the use of suitable surfactant agents promotes reactivity, allowing micelles to behave as nanoreactors in which reactive species are solubilized and enhance their local concentration.

Supervised learning and the finite-temperature string method for computing committor functions and reaction rates

A central object in the computational studies of rare events is the committor function. Though costly to compute, the committor function encodes complete mechanistic information of the processes involving rare events, including reaction rates and transition-state ensembles. Under the framework of transition path theory, Rotskoff et al. [ Proceedings of the 2nd Mathematical and Scientific Machine Learning Conference, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research (PLMR, 2022), Vol. 145, pp. 757–780] proposes an algorithm where a feedback loop couples a neural network that models the committor function with importance sampling, mainly umbrella sampling, which collects data needed for adaptive training. In this work, we show additional modifications are needed to improve the accuracy of the algorithm. The first modification adds elements of supervised learning, which allows the neural network to improve its prediction by fitting to sample-mean estimates of committor values obtained from short molecular dynamics trajectories. The second modification replaces the committor-based umbrella sampling with the finite-temperature string (FTS) method, which enables homogeneous sampling in regions where transition pathways are located. We test our modifications on low-dimensional systems with non-convex potential energy where reference solutions can be found via analytical or finite element methods, and show how combining supervised learning and the FTS method yields accurate computation of committor functions and reaction rates. We also provide an error analysis for algorithms that use the FTS method, using which reaction rates can be accurately estimated during training with a small number of samples. The methods are then applied to a molecular system in which no reference solution is known, where accurate computations of committor functions and reaction rates can still be obtained.

A New Formulation for the Concerted Alchemical Calculation of van der Waals and Coulomb Components of Solvation Free Energies

Alchemical free energy calculations via molecular dynamics have been widely used to obtain thermodynamic properties related to protein-ligand binding and solute-solvent interactions. Although soft-core modeling is the most common approach, the linear basis function (LBF) methodology [Naden, L. N.; et al. J. Chem. Theory Comput.2014, 10 (3), 1128; 2015, 11 (6), 2536] has emerged as a suitable alternative. It overcomes the end-point singularity of the scaling method while maintaining essential advantages such as ease of implementation and high flexibility for postprocessing analysis. In the present work, we propose a simple LBF variant and formulate an efficient protocol for evaluating van der Waals and Coulomb components of an alchemical transformation in tandem, in contrast to the prevalent sequential evaluation mode. To validate our proposal, which results from a careful optimization study, we performed solvation free energy calculations and obtained octanol-water partition coefficients of small organic molecules. Comparisons with results obtained via the sequential mode using either another LBF approach or the soft-core model attest to the effectiveness and correctness of our method. In addition, we show that a reaction field model with an infinite dielectric constant can provide very accurate hydration free energies when used instead of a lattice-sum method to model solute-solvent electrostatics.

Obtaining QM/MM binding free energies in the SAMPL8 drugs of abuse challenge: indirect approaches

Accurately predicting free energy differences is essential in realizing the full potential of rational drug design. Unfortunately, high levels of accuracy often require computationally expensive QM/MM Hamiltonians. Fortuitously, the cost of employing QM/MM approaches in rigorous free energy simulation can be reduced through the use of the so-called “indirect” approach to QM/MM free energies, in which the need for QM/MM simulations is avoided via a QM/MM “correction” at the classical endpoints of interest. Herein, we focus on the computation of QM/MM binding free energies in the context of the SAMPL8 Drugs of Abuse host–guest challenge. Of the 5 QM/MM correction coupled with force-matching submissions, PM6-D3H4/MM ranked submission proved the best overall QM/MM entry, with an RMSE from experimental results of 2.43 kcal/mol (best in ranked submissions), a Pearson’s correlation of 0.78 (second-best in ranked submissions), and a Kendall \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\tau$$\end{document}τ correlation of 0.52 (best in ranked submissions).

Small-sample limit of the Bennett acceptance ratio method and the variationally derived intermediates

Free energy calculations based on atomistic Hamiltonians provide microscopic insight into the thermodynamic driving forces of biophysical or condensed matter systems. Many approaches use intermediate Hamiltonians interpolating between the two states for which the free energy difference is calculated. The Bennett acceptance ratio (BAR) and variationally derived intermediates (VI) methods are optimal estimator and intermediate states in that the mean-squared error of free energy calculations based on independent sampling is minimized. However, BAR and VI have been derived based on several approximations that do not hold for very few sample points. Analyzing one-dimensional test systems, we show that in such cases BAR and VI are suboptimal and that established uncertainty estimates are inaccurate. Whereas for VI to become optimal, less than seven samples per state suffice in all cases; for BAR the required number increases unboundedly with decreasing configuration space densities overlap of the end states. We show that for BAR, the required number of samples is related to the overlap through an inverse power law. Because this relation seems to hold universally and almost independent of other system properties, these findings can guide the proper choice of estimators for free energy calculations.

Generation of Quantum Configurational Ensembles Using Approximate Potentials

Conformational analysis is of paramount importance in drug design: it is crucial to determine pharmacological properties, understand molecular recognition processes, and characterize the conformations of ligands when unbound. Molecular Mechanics (MM) simulation methods, such as Monte Carlo (MC) and molecular dynamics (MD), are usually employed to generate ensembles of structures due to their ability to extensively sample the conformational space of molecules. The accuracy of these MM-based schemes strongly depends on the functional form of the force field (FF) and its parametrization, components that often hinder their performance. High-level methods, such as ab initio MD, provide reliable structural information but are still too computationally expensive to allow for extensive sampling. Therefore, to overcome these limitations, we present a multilevel MC method that is capable of generating quantum configurational ensembles while keeping the computational cost at a minimum. We show that FF reparametrization is an efficient route to generate FFs that reproduce QM results more closely, which, in turn, can be used as low-cost models to achieve the gold standard QM accuracy. We demonstrate that the MC acceptance rate is strongly correlated with various phase space overlap measurements and that it constitutes a robust metric to evaluate the similarity between the MM and QM levels of theory. As a more advanced application, we present a self-parametrizing version of the algorithm, which combines sampling and FF parametrization in one scheme, and apply the methodology to generate the QM/MM distribution of a ligand in aqueous solution.

On the calculation of free energies over Hamiltonian and order parameters via perturbation and thermodynamic integration

In this work, complementary formulas are presented to compute free-energy differences via perturbation (FEP) methods and thermodynamic integration (TI). These formulas are derived by selecting only the most statistically significant data from the information extractable from the simulated points involved. On the one hand, commonly used FEP techniques based on overlap sampling leverage the full information contained in the overlapping macrostate probability distributions. On the other hand, conventional TI methods only use information on the first moments of those distributions, as embodied by the first derivatives of the free energy. Since the accuracy of simulation data degrades considerably for high-order moments (for FEP) or free-energy derivatives (for TI), it is proposed to consider, consistently for both methods, data up to second-order moments/derivatives. This provides a compromise between the limiting strategies embodied by common FEP and TI and leads to simple, optimized expressions to evaluate free-energy differences. The proposed formulas are validated with an analytically solvable harmonic Hamiltonian (for assessing systematic errors), an atomistic system (for computing the potential of mean force with coordinate-dependent order parameters), and a binary-component coarse-grained model (for tracing a solid-liquid phase diagram in an ensemble sampled through alchemical transformations). It is shown that the proposed FEP and TI formulas are straightforward to implement, perform similarly well, and allow robust estimation of free-energy differences even when the spacing of successive points does not guarantee them to have proper overlapping in phase space.

New Force-Field for Organosilicon Molecules in the Liquid Phase

In this paper, we present a new molecular model that can accurately predict thermodynamic liquid state and phase-change properties for organosilicon molecules including several functional groups (alkylsilane, alkoxysilane, siloxane, and silanol). These molecules are of great importance in geological processes, biological systems, and material science, yet no force field currently exists that is widely applicable to organosilicates. The model is parametrized according to the recent Polarization-Consistent Approach (PolCA), which allows for polarization effects to be incorporated into a nonpolarizable model through post facto correction terms and is therefore consistent with previous parametrizations of the PolCA force field. Alkyl groups are described by the United-Atom approach, bond and angle parameters were taken from previous literature studies, dihedral parameters were fitted to new quantum chemical energy profiles, point charges were calculated from quantum chemical optimizations in a continuum solvent, and Lennard-Jones dispersion/repulsion parameters were fitted to match the density and enthalpy of vaporization of a small number of selected compounds. Extensive validation efforts were carried out, after careful collection and curation of experimental data for organosilicates. Overall, the model performed quite well for the density, enthalpy of vaporization, dielectric constant, and self-diffusion coefficient, but it slightly overestimated the magnitude of self-solvation free energies. The modular and transferable nature of the PolCA force field allows for further extensions to other types of silicon-containing compounds.

On the Use of Interaction Entropy and Related Methods to Estimate Binding Entropies

Molecular mechanics combined with Poisson-Boltzmann or generalized Born and solvent-accessible area solvation energies (MM/PBSA and MM/GBSA) are popular methods to estimate the free energy for the binding of small molecules to biomacromolecules. However, the estimation of the entropy has been problematic and time-consuming. Traditionally, normal-mode analysis has been used to estimate the entropy, but more recently, alternative approaches have been suggested. In particular, it has been suggested that exponential averaging of the electrostatic and Lennard-Jones interaction energies may provide much faster and more accurate entropies, the interaction entropy (IE) approach. In this study, we show that this exponential averaging is extremely poorly conditioned. Using stochastic simulations, assuming that the interaction energies follow a Gaussian distribution, we show that if the standard deviation of the interaction energies (σIE) is larger than 15 kJ/mol, it becomes practically impossible to converge the interaction entropies (more than 10 million energies are needed, and the number increases exponentially). A cumulant approximation to the second order of the exponential average shows a better convergence, but for σIE > 25 kJ/mol, it gives entropies that are unrealistically large. Moreover, in practical applications, both methods show a steady increase in the entropy with the number of energies considered.

On the Consistency of the Exfoliation Free Energy of Graphenes by Molecular Simulations

Monolayer graphene is now produced at significant yields, by liquid phase exfoliation of graphites in solvents. This has increased the interest in molecular simulation studies to give new insights in the field. We use decoupling simulations to compute the exfoliation free energy of graphenes in a liquid environment. Starting from a bilayer graphene configuration, we decouple the Van der Waals interactions of a graphene monolayer in the presence of saline water. Then, we introduce the monolayer back into water by coupling its interactions with water molecules and ions. A different approach to compute the graphene exfoliation free energy is to use umbrella sampling. We apply umbrella sampling after pulling the graphene monolayer on the shear direction up to a distance from a bilayer. We show that the decoupling and umbrella methods give highly consistent free energy results for three bilayer graphene samples with different size. This strongly suggests that the systems in both methods remain closely in equilibrium as we move between the states before and after the exfoliation. Therefore, the amount of nonequilibrium work needed to peel the two layers apart is minimized efficiently.

Challenges Encountered Applying Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Binding Free Energy Calculations

Binding free energy calculations have become increasingly valuable to drive decision making in drug discovery projects. However, among other issues, inadequate sampling can reduce accuracy, limiting the value of the technique. In this paper, we apply absolute binding free energy calculations to ligands binding to T4 lysozyme L99A and HSP90 using equilibrium and nonequilibrium approaches. We highlight sampling problems encountered in these systems, such as slow side chain rearrangements and slow changes of water placement upon ligand binding. These same types of challenges are also likely to show up in other protein-ligand systems, and we propose some strategies to diagnose and test for such problems in alchemical free energy calculations. We also explore similarities and differences in how the equilibrium and the nonequilibrium approaches handle these problems. Our results show the large amount of work still to be done to make free energy calculations robust and reliable and provide insight for future research in this area.

A new one-site coarse-grained model for water: Bottom-up many-body projected water (BUMPer). I. General theory and model

Water is undoubtedly one of the most important molecules for a variety of chemical and physical systems, and constructing precise yet effective coarse-grained (CG) water models has been a high priority for computer simulations. To recapitulate important local correlations in the CG water model, explicit higher-order interactions are often included. However, the advantages of coarse-graining may then be offset by the larger computational cost in the model parameterization and simulation execution. To leverage both the computational efficiency of the CG simulation and the inclusion of higher-order interactions, we propose a new statistical mechanical theory that effectively projects many-body interactions onto pairwise basis sets. The many-body projection theory presented in this work shares similar physics from liquid state theory, providing an efficient approach to account for higher-order interactions within the reduced model. We apply this theory to project the widely used Stillinger-Weber three-body interaction onto a pairwise (two-body) interaction for water. Based on the projected interaction with the correct long-range behavior, we denote the new CG water model as the Bottom-Up Many-Body Projected Water (BUMPer) model, where the resultant CG interaction corresponds to a prior model, the iteratively force-matched model. Unlike other pairwise CG models, BUMPer provides high-fidelity recapitulation of pair correlation functions and three-body distributions, as well as N-body correlation functions. BUMPer extensively improves upon the existing bottom-up CG water models by extending the accuracy and applicability of such models while maintaining a reduced computational cost.

Alchemical Binding Free Energy Calculations in AMBER20: Advances and Best Practices for Drug Discovery

Predicting protein-ligand binding affinities and the associated thermodynamics of biomolecular recognition is a primary objective of structure-based drug design. Alchemical free energy simulations offer a highly accurate and computationally efficient route to achieving this goal. While the AMBER molecular dynamics package has successfully been used for alchemical free energy simulations in academic research groups for decades, widespread impact in industrial drug discovery settings has been minimal because of the previous limitations within the AMBER alchemical code, coupled with challenges in system setup and postprocessing workflows. Through a close academia-industry collaboration we have addressed many of the previous limitations with an aim to improve accuracy, efficiency, and robustness of alchemical binding free energy simulations in industrial drug discovery applications. Here, we highlight some of the recent advances in AMBER20 with a focus on alchemical binding free energy (BFE) calculations, which are less computationally intensive than alternative binding free energy methods where full binding/unbinding paths are explored. In addition to scientific and technical advances in AMBER20, we also describe the essential practical aspects associated with running relative alchemical BFE calculations, along with recommendations for best practices, highlighting the importance not only of the alchemical simulation code but also the auxiliary functionalities and expertise required to obtain accurate and reliable results. This work is intended to provide a contemporary overview of the scientific, technical, and practical issues associated with running relative BFE simulations in AMBER20, with a focus on real-world drug discovery applications.

Accelerated Computation of Free Energy Profile at Ab Initio Quantum Mechanical/Molecular Mechanics Accuracy via a Semiempirical Reference Potential. 3. Gaussian Smoothing on Density-of-States

Calculations of the free energy profile, also known as potential of mean force (PMF), along a chosen collective variable (CV) are now routinely applied in the studies of chemical processes, such as enzymatic reactions and chemical reactions in condensed phases. However, if the ab initio quantum mechanical/molecular mechanics (QM/MM) level of accuracy is required for the PMF, it can be formidably demanding even with the most advanced enhanced sampling methods, such as umbrella sampling. To ameliorate this difficulty, we developed a novel method for the computation of the free energy profile based on the reference-potential method recently, in which a low-level reference Hamiltonian is employed for phase space sampling and the free energy profile can be corrected to the level of interest (the target Hamiltonian) by energy reweighting in a nonparametric way. However, when the reference Hamiltonian is very different from the target Hamiltonian, the calculated ensemble averages, including the PMF, often suffer from numerical instability, which mainly comes from the overestimation of the density-of-states (DoS) in the low-energy region. Stochastic samplings of these low-energy configurations are rare events, and some low-energy conformations may get oversampled in simulations of a finite length. In this work, an assumption of Gaussian distribution is applied to the DoS in each CV bin, and the weight of each configuration is rescaled according to the accumulated DoS. The results show that this smoothing process can remarkably reduce the ruggedness of the PMF and increase the reliability of the reference-potential method.

An Alternative to Conventional λ-Intermediate States in Alchemical Free Energy Calculations: λ-Enveloping Distribution Sampling

Alchemical free energy calculations typically rely on intermediate states to bridge between the relevant phase spaces of the two end states. These intermediate states are usually created by mixing the energies or parameters of the end states according to a coupling parameter λ. The choice of the procedure has a strong impact on the efficiency of the calculation, as it affects both the encountered energy barriers and the phase space overlap between the states. The present work builds on the connection between the minimum variance pathway (MVP) and enveloping distribution sampling (EDS). It is shown that both methods can be regarded as special cases of a common scheme referred to as λ-EDS, which can also reproduce the behavior of conventional λ-intermediate states. A particularly attractive feature of λ-EDS is its ability to emulate the use of soft core potentials (SCP) while avoiding the associated computational overhead when applying efficient free energy estimators such as the multistate Bennett's acceptance ratio (MBAR). The method is illustrated for both relative and absolute free energy calculations considering five benchmark systems. The first two systems (charge inversion and cavity creation in a dipolar solvent) demonstrate the use of λ-EDS as an alternative coupling scheme in the context of thermodynamic integration (TI). The three other systems (change of bond length, change of dihedral angles, and cavity creation in water) investigate the efficiency and optimal choice of parameters in the context of free energy perturbation (FEP) and Bennett's acceptance ratio (BAR). It is shown that λ-EDS allows larger steps along the alchemical pathway than conventional intermediate states.

Multi-level free energy simulation with a staged transformation approach

Combining multiple levels of theory in free energy simulations to balance computational accuracy and efficiency is a promising approach for studying processes in the condensed phase. While the basic idea has been proposed and explored for quite some time, it remains challenging to achieve convergence for such multi-level free energy simulations as it requires a favorable distribution overlap between different levels of theory. Previous efforts focused on improving the distribution overlap by either altering the low-level of theory for the specific system of interest or ignoring certain degrees of freedom. Here, we propose an alternative strategy that first identifies the degrees of freedom that lead to gaps in the distributions of different levels of theory and then treats them separately with either constraints or restraints or by introducing an intermediate model that better connects the low and high levels of theory. As a result, the conversion from the low level to the high level model is done in a staged fashion that ensures a favorable distribution overlap along the way. Free energy components associated with different steps are mostly evaluated explicitly, and thus, the final result can be meaningfully compared to the rigorous free energy difference between the two levels of theory with limited and well-defined approximations. The additional free energy component calculations involve simulations at the low level of theory and therefore do not incur high computational costs. The approach is illustrated with two simple but non-trivial solution examples, and factors that dictate the reliability of the result are discussed.

A Polarization-Consistent Model for Alcohols to Predict Solvation Free Energies

Classical nonpolarizable models, normally based on a combination of Lennard-Jones sites and point charges, are extensively used to model thermodynamic properties of fluids, including solvation. An important shortcoming of these models is that they do not explicitly account for polarization effects, i.e., a description of how the electron density responds to changes in the molecular environment. Instead, polarization is implicitly included, in a mean-field sense, into the parameters of the model, usually by fitting to pure liquid properties (e.g., density). This causes problems when trying to describe thermodynamic properties that involve a change of phase (e.g., enthalpy of vaporization), that directly depend on the electronic response of the medium (e.g., dielectric constant), and that require mixing or solvation in different media (e.g., solvation free energies). Fully polarizable models present a natural route for addressing these limitations but at the price of a much higher computational cost. In this work, we combine the best of those two approaches by running fast simulations using nonpolarizable models and applying post facto corrections to the computed properties in order to account for the effects of polarization. By applying this new paradigm, a new united-atom force field for alcohols is developed that is able to predict both pure liquid properties, including dielectric constant, and solvation free energies in different solvents with a high degree of accuracy. This paves the way for the development of a generic classical nonpolarizable force field that can predict solvation of drug-like molecules in a variety of solvents.

Best Practices for Alchemical Free Energy Calculations [Article v1.0]

Alchemical free energy calculations are a useful tool for predicting free energy differences associated with the transfer of molecules from one environment to another. The hallmark of these methods is the use of "bridging" potential energy functions representing alchemical intermediate states that cannot exist as real chemical species. The data collected from these bridging alchemical thermodynamic states allows the efficient computation of transfer free energies (or differences in transfer free energies) with orders of magnitude less simulation time than simulating the transfer process directly. While these methods are highly flexible, care must be taken in avoiding common pitfalls to ensure that computed free energy differences can be robust and reproducible for the chosen force field, and that appropriate corrections are included to permit direct comparison with experimental data. In this paper, we review current best practices for several popular application domains of alchemical free energy calculations performed with equilibrium simulations, in particular relative and absolute small molecule binding free energy calculations to biomolecular targets.

Development of a Robust Indirect Approach for MM → QM Free Energy Calculations That Combines Force-Matched Reference Potential and Bennett's Acceptance Ratio Methods

We use the PBE0/6-31G* density functional method to perform ab initio quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (QM/MM) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations under periodic boundary conditions with rigorous electrostatics using the ambient potential composite Ewald method in order to test the convergence of MM → QM/MM free energy corrections for the prediction of 17 small-molecule solvation free energies and eight ligand binding free energies to T4 lysozyme. The "indirect" thermodynamic cycle for calculating free energies is used to explore whether a series of reference potentials improve the statistical quality of the predictions. Specifically, we construct a series of reference potentials that optimize a molecular mechanical (MM) force field's parameters to reproduce the ab initio QM/MM forces from a QM/MM simulation. The optimizations form a systematic progression of successively expanded parameters that include bond, angle, dihedral, and charge parameters. For each reference potential, we calculate benchmark quality reference values for the MM → QM/MM correction by performing the mixed MM and QM/MM Hamiltonians at 11 intermediate states, each for 200 ps. We then compare forward and reverse application of Zwanzig's relation, thermodynamic integration (TI), and Bennett's acceptance ratio (BAR) methods as a function of reference potential, simulation time, and the number of simulated intermediate states. We find that Zwanzig's equation is inadequate unless a large number of intermediate states are explicitly simulated. The TI and BAR mean signed errors are very small even when only the end-state simulations are considered, and the standard deviations of the TI and BAR errors are decreased by choosing a reference potential that optimizes the bond and angle parameters. We find a robust approach for the data sets of fairly rigid molecules considered here is to use bond + angle reference potential together with the end-state-only BAR analysis. This requires QM/MM simulations to be performed in order to generate reference data to parametrize the bond + angle reference potential, and then this same simulation serves a dual purpose as the full QM/MM end state. The convergence of the results with respect to time suggests that computational resources may be used more efficiently by running multiple simulations for no more than 50 ps, rather than running one long simulation.

Use of Interaction Energies in QM/MM Free Energy Simulations

The use of the most accurate (i.e., QM or QM/MM) levels of theory for free energy simulations (FES) is typically not possible. Primarily, this is because the computational cost associated with the extensive configurational sampling needed for converging FES is prohibitive. To ensure the feasibility of QM-based FES, the "indirect" approach is generally taken, necessitating a free energy calculation between the MM and QM/MM potential energy surfaces. Ideally, this step is performed with standard free energy perturbation (Zwanzig's equation) as it only requires simulations be carried out at the low level of theory; however, work from several groups over the past few years has conclusively shown that Zwanzig's equation is ill-suited to this task. As such, many approximations have arisen to mitigate difficulties with Zwanzig's equation. One particularly popular notion is that the convergence of Zwanzig's equation can be improved by using interaction energy differences instead of total energy differences. Although problematic numerical fluctuations (a major problem when using Zwanzig's equation) are indeed reduced, our results and analysis demonstrate that this "interaction energy approximation" (IEA) is theoretically incorrect, and the implicit approximation invoked is spurious at best. Herein, we demonstrate this via solvation free energy calculations using IEA from two different low levels of theory to the same target high level. Results from this proof-of-concept consistently yield the wrong results, deviating by ∼1.5 kcal/mol from the rigorously obtained value.

Host-Guest Relative Binding Affinities at Density-Functional Theory Level from Semiempirical Molecular Dynamics Simulations

Relative free energies for the binding of nine cyclic carboxylate ligands to the octa-acid deep-cavity host were calculated at the combined density-functional theory and molecular mechanics (DFT/MM) level of theory. The DFT calculations employed the BLYP functional and the 6-31G* basis set for the ligand. We employed free-energy perturbations (FEP) with the reference-potential approach and used molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with the semiempirical quantum mechanical (SQM) PM6-DH+ method for the ligand as an intermediate level between MM and DFT/MM to improve the convergence. Thus, the relative binding free energy of two ligands was first calculated at the MM level by an alchemical transformation from one ligand to another in both the bound and unbound states. Then, for each ligand the free-energy correction for going from the MM to the SQM/MM potentials was calculated using explicit SQM/MM MD simulations. Finally, the free-energy correction for going from the SQM/MM to the DFT/MM potentials was estimated with FEP without running any DFT/MM simulations. Instead, the free energy was calculated by single-step exponential averaging (ssEA) or employing the cumulant approximation to the second order (CA). The results show that CA converges much better than ssEA, and with 500-4500 DFT/MM single-point energy calculations, converged free energies with a precision of 0.3 kJ/mol can be obtained. These free energies reproduce the experimental binding free energy differences with a mean absolute deviation of 3.4 kJ/mol, a correlation ( R²) of 0.97, and correct signs for all of the eight free-energy differences. This is appreciably better than the results obtained at the SQM/MM level of theory and also slightly better than those obtained with MM. We show that the convergence of the SQM/MM → DFT/MM perturbations can be monitored by the use of Wu and Kofke's bias metric Π and by the standard deviation of the difference between the SQM/MM and DFT/MM energies. Finally, we show that the use of the intermediate SQM/MM MD simulations improves the convergence of the free energies by a factor of at least two, compared to doing direct MM → DFT/MM perturbations.

Lessons learned about steered molecular dynamics simulations and free energy calculations

The calculation of free energy profiles is central in understanding differential enzymatic activity, for instance, involving chemical reactions that require QM-MM tools, ligand migration, and conformational rearrangements that can be modeled using classical potentials. The use of steered molecular dynamics (sMD) together with the Jarzynski equality is a popular approach in calculating free energy profiles. Here, we first briefly review the application of the Jarzynski equality to sMD simulations, then revisit the so-called stiff-spring approximation and the consequent expectation of Gaussian work distributions and, finally, reiterate the practical utility of the second-order cumulant expansion, as it coincides with the parametric maximum-likelihood estimator in this scenario. We illustrate this procedure using simulations of CO, both in aqueous solution and in a carbon nanotube as a model system for biologically relevant nanoheterogeneous environments. We conclude the use of the second-order cumulant expansion permits the use of faster pulling velocities in sMD simulations, without introducing bias due to large dispersion in the non-equilibrium work distribution.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: "HiPen", a New Dataset for Validating (S)QM/MM Free Energy Simulations

Indirect (S)QM/MM free energy simulations (FES) are vital to efficiently incorporating sufficient sampling and accurate (QM) energetic evaluations when estimating free energies of practical/experimental interest. Connecting between levels of theory, i.e., calculating Δ A l o w → h i g h , remains to be the most challenging step within an indirect FES protocol. To improve calculations of Δ A l o w → h i g h , we must: (1) compare the performance of all FES methods currently available; and (2) compile and maintain datasets of Δ A l o w → h i g h calculated for a wide-variety of molecules so that future practitioners may replicate or improve upon the current state-of-the-art. Towards these two aims, we introduce a new dataset, "HiPen", which tabulates Δ A g a s M M → 3 o b (the free energy associated with switching from an M M to an S C C - D F T B molecular description using the 3ob parameter set in gas phase), calculated for 22 drug-like small molecules. We compare the calculation of this value using free energy perturbation, Bennett's acceptance ratio, Jarzynski's equation, and Crooks' equation. We also predict the reliability of each calculated Δ A g a s M M → 3 o b by evaluating several convergence criteria including sample size hysteresis, overlap statistics, and bias metric ( Π ). Within the total dataset, three distinct categories of molecules emerge: the "good" molecules, for which we can obtain converged Δ A g a s M M → 3 o b using Jarzynski's equation; "bad" molecules which require Crooks' equation to obtain a converged Δ A g a s M M → 3 o b ; and "ugly" molecules for which we cannot obtain reliably converged Δ A g a s M M → 3 o b with either Jarzynski's or Crooks' equations. We discuss, in depth, results from several example molecules in each of these categories and describe how dihedral discrepancies between levels of theory cause convergence failures even for these gas phase free energy simulations.

Challenges in the use of atomistic simulations to predict solubilities of drug-like molecules

Background: Solubility is a physical property of high importance to the pharmaceutical industry, the prediction of which for potential drugs has so far been a hard task. We attempted to predict the solubility of acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) by estimating the absolute chemical potentials of its most stable polymorph and of solutions with different concentrations of the drug molecule. Methods: Chemical potentials were estimated from all-atom molecular dynamics simulations.  We used the Einstein molecule method (EMM) to predict the absolute chemical potential of the solid and solvation free energy calculations to predict the excess chemical potentials of the liquid-phase systems. Results: Reliable estimations of the chemical potentials for the solid and for a single ASA molecule using the EMM required an extremely large number of intermediate states for the free energy calculations, meaning that the calculations were extremely demanding computationally. Despite the computational cost, however, the computed value did not agree well with the experimental value, potentially due to limitations with the underlying energy model. Perhaps better values could be obtained with a better energy model; however, it seems likely computational cost may remain a limiting factor for use of this particular approach to solubility estimation.    Conclusions: Solubility prediction of drug-like solids remains computationally challenging, and it appears that both the underlying energy model and the computational approach applied may need improvement before the approach is suitable for routine use.

Accelerating QM/MM Free Energy Computations via Intramolecular Force Matching

The calculation of free energy differences between levels of theory has numerous potential pitfalls. Chief among them is the lack of overlap, i.e., ensembles generated at one level of theory (e.g., "low") not being good approximations of ensembles at the other (e.g., "high"). Numerous strategies have been devised to mitigate this issue. However, the most straightforward approach is to ensure that the "low" level ensemble more closely resembles that of the "high". Ideally, this is done without increasing computational cost. Herein, we demonstrate that by reparametrizing classical intramolecular potentials to reproduce high level forces (i.e., force matching) configurational overlap between a "low" (i.e., classical) and "high" (i.e., quantum) level can be significantly improved. This procedure is validated on two test cases and results in vastly improved convergence of free energy simulations.

Force matching as a stepping stone to QM/MM CB[8] host/guest binding free energies: a SAMPL6 cautionary tale

Use of quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (QM/MM) methods in binding free energy calculations, particularly in the SAMPL challenge, often fail to achieve improvement over standard additive (MM) force fields. Frequently, the implementation is through use of reference potentials, or the so-called "indirect approach", and inherently relies on sufficient overlap existing between MM and QM/MM configurational spaces. This overlap is generally poor, particularly for the use of free energy perturbation to perform the MM to QM/MM free energy correction at the end states of interest (e.g., bound and unbound states). However, by utilizing MM parameters that best reproduce forces obtained at the desired QM level of theory, it is possible to lessen the configurational disparity between MM and QM/MM. To this end, we sought to use force matching to generate MM parameters for the SAMPL6 CB[8] host-guest binding challenge, classically compute binding free energies, and apply energetic end state corrections to obtain QM/MM binding free energy differences. For the standard set of 11 molecules and the bonus set (including three additional challenge molecules), error statistics, such as the root mean square deviation (RMSE) were moderately poor (5.5 and 5.4 kcal/mol). Correlation statistics, however, were in the top two for both standard and bonus set submissions ([Formula: see text] of 0.42 and 0.26, [Formula: see text] of 0.64 and 0.47 respectively). High RMSE and moderate correlation strongly indicated the presence of systematic error. Identifiable issues were ameliorated for two of the guest molecules, resulting in a reduction of error and pointing to strong prospects for the future use of this methodology.

Binding free energies in the SAMPL6 octa-acid host-guest challenge calculated with MM and QM methods

We have estimated free energies for the binding of eight carboxylate ligands to two variants of the octa-acid deep-cavity host in the SAMPL6 blind-test challenge (with or without endo methyl groups on the four upper-rim benzoate groups, OAM and OAH, respectively). We employed free-energy perturbation (FEP) for relative binding energies at the molecular mechanics (MM) and the combined quantum mechanical (QM) and MM (QM/MM) levels, the latter obtained with the reference-potential approach with QM/MM sampling for the MM → QM/MM FEP. The semiempirical QM method PM6-DH+ was employed for the ligand in the latter calculations. Moreover, binding free energies were also estimated from QM/MM optimised structures, combined with COSMO-RS estimates of the solvation energy and thermostatistical corrections from MM frequencies. They were performed at the PM6-DH+ level of theory with the full host and guest molecule in the QM system (and also four water molecules in the geometry optimisations) for 10-20 snapshots from molecular dynamics simulations of the complex. Finally, the structure with the lowest free energy was recalculated using the dispersion-corrected density-functional theory method TPSS-D3, for both the structure and the energy. The two FEP approaches gave similar results (PM6-DH+/MM slightly better for OAM), which were among the five submissions with the best performance in the challenge and gave the best results without any fit to data from the SAMPL5 challenge, with mean absolute deviations (MAD) of 2.4-5.2 kJ/mol and a correlation coefficient (R²) of 0.77-0.93. This is the first time QM/MM approaches give binding free energies that are competitive to those obtained with MM for the octa-acid host. The QM/MM-optimised structures gave somewhat worse performance (MAD = 3-8 kJ/mol and R² = 0.1-0.9), but the results were improved compared to previous studies of this system with similar methods.