Effects of weak ties on epidemic predictability on community networks

MWTP: A heterogeneous multiplex representation learning framework for link prediction of weak ties

Weak ties that bridge different communities are crucial for preserving global connectivity, enhancing resilience, and maintaining functionality and dynamics of complex networks, However, making accurate link predictions for weak ties remain challenging due to lacking of common neighbors. Most complex systems, such as transportation and social networks, comprise multiple types of interactions, which can be modeled by multiplex networks with each layer representing a different type of connection. Better utilizing information from other layers can mitigate the lack of information for predicting weak ties. Here, we propose a GNN-based representation learning framework for Multiplex Weak Tie Prediction (MWTP). It leverages both an intra-layer and an inter-layer aggregator to effectively learn and fuse information across different layers. The intra-layer one integrates features from multi-order neighbors, and the inter-layer aggregation exploits either logit regression or a more sophisticated semantic voting mechanism to compute nodal-level inter-layer attentions, leading to two variants of our framework, MWTP-logit, and MWTP-semantic. The former one is more efficient in implementation attribute to fewer parameters, while the latter one is slower but has stronger learning capabilities. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our MWTPs outperform eleven popular baselines for predicting both weak ties and all ties across diverse real-world multiplex networks. Additionally, MWTPs achieve good prediction performance with a relatively small training size.

Homophily and social mixing in a small community: Implications for infectious disease transmission

Community mixing patterns by sociodemographic traits can inform the risk of epidemic spread among groups, and the balance of in- and out-group mixing affects epidemic potential. Understanding mixing patterns can provide insight about potential transmission pathways throughout a community. We used a snowball sampling design to enroll people recently diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 in an ethnically and racially diverse county and asked them to describe their close contacts and recruit some contacts to enroll in the study. We constructed egocentric networks of the participants and their contacts and assessed age-mixing, ethnic/racial homophily, and gender homophily. The total size of the egocentric networks was 2,544 people (n = 384 index cases + n = 2,160 recruited peers or other contacts). We observed high rates of in-group mixing among ethnic/racial groups compared to the ethnic/racial proportions of the background population. Black or African-American respondents interacted with a wider range of ages than other ethnic/racial groups, largely due to familial relationships. The egocentric networks of non-binary contacts had little age diversity. Black or African-American respondents in particular reported mixing with older or younger family members, which could increase the risk of transmission to vulnerable age groups. Understanding community mixing patterns can inform infectious disease risk, support analyses to predict epidemic size, or be used to design campaigns such as vaccination strategies so that community members who have vulnerable contacts are prioritized.

Epidemic threshold influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions in residential university environments

The control of highly contagious disease spreading in campuses is a critical challenge. In residential universities, students attend classes according to a curriculum schedule, and mainly pack into classrooms, dining halls and dorms. They move from one place to another. To simulate such environments, we propose an agent-based susceptible–infected–recovered model with time-varying heterogeneous contact networks. In close environments, maintaining physical distancing is the most widely recommended and encouraged non-pharmaceutical intervention. It can be easily realized by using larger classrooms, adopting staggered dining hours, decreasing the number of students per dorm and so on. Their real-world influence remains uncertain. With numerical simulations, we obtain epidemic thresholds. The effect of such countermeasures on reducing the number of disease cases is also quantitatively evaluated.

An SIR epidemic on a weighted network

We introduce a weighted configuration model graph, whereedge weightscorrespond to the probability of infection in an epidemic on the graph. On these graphs, we study the development of a Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered epidemic using both Reed–Frost and Markovian settings. For the special case of having two different edge types, we determine thebasic reproduction numberR0, theprobability of a major outbreak, and therelative final size of a major outbreak. Results are compared with those for a calibrated unweighted graph. The degree distributions are based on both theoretical constructs and empirical network data. In addition, bivariate standard normal copulas are used to model the dependence between the degrees of the two edge types, allowing for modeling the correlation between edge types over a wide range. Among the results are that the weighted graph produces much richer results than the unweighted graph. Also, whileR0always increases with increasing correlation between the two degrees, this is not necessarily true for the probability of a major outbreak nor for the relative final size of a major outbreak. When using copulas we see that these can produce results that are similar to those of the empirical degree distributions, indicating that in some cases a copula is a viable alternative to using the full empirical data.

Backbone reconstruction in temporal networks from epidemic data

Many complex systems are characterized by time-varying patterns of interactions. These interactions comprise strong ties, driven by dyadic relationships, and weak ties, based on node-specific attributes. The interplay between strong and weak ties plays an important role on dynamical processes that could unfold on complex systems. However, seldom do we have access to precise information about the time-varying topology of interaction patterns. A particularly elusive question is to distinguish strong from weak ties, on the basis of the sole node dynamics. Building upon analytical results, we propose a statistically-principled algorithm to reconstruct the backbone of strong ties from data of a spreading process, consisting of the time series of individuals' states. Our method is numerically validated over a range of synthetic datasets, encapsulating salient features of real-world systems. Motivated by compelling evidence, we propose the integration of our algorithm in a targeted immunization strategy that prioritizes influential nodes in the inferred backbone. Through Monte Carlo simulations on synthetic networks and a real-world case study, we demonstrate the viability of our approach.

Self-awareness control effect of cooperative epidemics on complex networks

Coinfection mechanism is a common interacting mode between multiple diseases in real spreading processes, where the diseases mutually increase their susceptibility, and has aroused widespread studies in network science. We use the bond percolation theory to characterize the coinfection model under two self-awareness control strategies, including immunization strategy and quarantine strategy, and to study the impacts of the synergy effect and control strategies on cooperative epidemics. We find that strengthening the synergy effect can reduce the epidemic threshold and enhance the outbreak size of coinfected networks. On Erdős-Rényi networks, the synergy effect will induce a crossover phenomenon of phase transition, i.e., make the type of phase transition from being continuous to discontinuous. Self-awareness control strategies play a non-negligible role in suppressing cooperative epidemics. In particular, increasing immunization or the quarantine rate can enhance the epidemic threshold and reduce the outbreak size of cooperative epidemics, and lead to a crossover phenomenon of transition from being discontinuous to continuous. The impact of quarantine strategy on cooperative epidemics is more significant than the immunization strategy, which is verified on scale-free networks.

On the predictability of infectious disease outbreaks

Infectious disease outbreaks recapitulate biology: they emerge from the multi-level interaction of hosts, pathogens, and environment. Therefore, outbreak forecasting requires an integrative approach to modeling. While specific components of outbreaks are predictable, it remains unclear whether fundamental limits to outbreak prediction exist. Here, adopting permutation entropy as a model independent measure of predictability, we study the predictability of a diverse collection of outbreaks and identify a fundamental entropy barrier for disease time series forecasting. However, this barrier is often beyond the time scale of single outbreaks, implying prediction is likely to succeed. We show that forecast horizons vary by disease and that both shifting model structures and social network heterogeneity are likely mechanisms for differences in predictability. Our results highlight the importance of embracing dynamic modeling approaches, suggest challenges for performing model selection across long time series, and may relate more broadly to the predictability of complex adaptive systems.

Modeling and analysis of epidemic spreading on community networks with heterogeneity

A large number of real world networks exhibit community structure, and different communities may often possess heterogeneity. In this paper, considering the heterogeneity among communities, we construct a new community network model in which the communities show significant differences in average degree. Based on this heterogeneous community network, we propose a novel mathematical epidemic model for each community and study the epidemic dynamics in this network model. We find that the location of the initial infection node only affects the spreading velocity and barely influences the epidemic prevalence. And the epidemic threshold of entire network decreases with the increase of heterogeneity among communities. Moreover, the epidemic prevalence increases with the increase of heterogeneity around the epidemic threshold, while the converse situation holds when the infection rate is much greater than the epidemic threshold.

Epidemics on dynamic networks

In many populations, the patterns of potentially infectious contacts are transients that can be described as a network with dynamic links. The relative timescales of link and contagion dynamics and the characteristics that drive their tempos can lead to important differences to the static case. Here, we propose some essential nomenclature for their analysis, and then review the relevant literature. We describe recent advances in they apply to infection processes, considering all of the methods used to record, measure and analyse them, and their implications for disease transmission. Finally, we outline some key challenges and opportunities in the field.

Unification of theoretical approaches for epidemic spreading on complex networks

Models of epidemic spreading on complex networks have attracted great attention among researchers in physics, mathematics, and epidemiology due to their success in predicting and controlling scenarios of epidemic spreading in real-world scenarios. To understand the interplay between epidemic spreading and the topology of a contact network, several outstanding theoretical approaches have been developed. An accurate theoretical approach describing the spreading dynamics must take both the network topology and dynamical correlations into consideration at the expense of increasing the complexity of the equations. In this short survey we unify the most widely used theoretical approaches for epidemic spreading on complex networks in terms of increasing complexity, including the mean-field, the heterogeneous mean-field, the quench mean-field, dynamical message-passing, link percolation, and pairwise approximation. We build connections among these approaches to provide new insights into developing an accurate theoretical approach to spreading dynamics on complex networks.

Effective information spreading based on local information in correlated networks

Using network-based information to facilitate information spreading is an essential task for spreading dynamics in complex networks. Focusing on degree correlated networks, we propose a preferential contact strategy based on the local network structure and local informed density to promote the information spreading. During the spreading process, an informed node will preferentially select a contact target among its neighbors, basing on their degrees or local informed densities. By extensively implementing numerical simulations in synthetic and empirical networks, we find that when only consider the local structure information, the convergence time of information spreading will be remarkably reduced if low-degree neighbors are favored as contact targets. Meanwhile, the minimum convergence time depends non-monotonically on degree-degree correlation, and a moderate correlation coefficient results in the most efficient information spreading. Incorporating the local informed density information into contact strategy, the convergence time of information spreading can be further reduced, and be minimized by an moderately preferential selection.

Recovery rate affects the effective epidemic threshold with synchronous updating

Accurate identification of effective epidemic threshold is essential for understanding epidemic dynamics on complex networks. In this paper, we systematically study how the recovery rate affects the susceptible-infected-removed spreading dynamics on complex networks, where synchronous and asynchronous updating processes are taken into account. We derive the theoretical effective epidemic threshold and final outbreak size based on the edge-based compartmental theory. To validate the proposed theoretical predictions, extensive numerical experiments are implemented by using asynchronous and synchronous updating methods. When asynchronous updating method is used in simulations, recovery rate does not affect the final state of spreading dynamics. But with synchronous updating, we find that the effective epidemic threshold decreases with recovery rate, and final outbreak size increases with recovery rate. A good agreement between the theoretical predictions and the numerical results are observed on both synthetic and real-world networks. Our results extend the existing theoretical studies and help us to understand the phase transition with arbitrary recovery rate.

Controllability of Boolean networks via input controls under Harvey's update scheme

In this article, the controllability of Boolean networks via input controls under Harvey's update scheme is investigated. First, the model of Boolean control networks under Harvey's stochastic update is proposed, by means of semi-tensor product approach, which is converted into discrete-time linear representation. And, a general formula of control-depending network transition matrix is provided. Second, based on discrete-time dynamics, controllability of the proposed model is analytically discussed by revealing the necessary and sufficient conditions of the reachable sets, respectively, for three kinds of controls, i.e., free Boolean control sequence, input control networks, and close-loop control. Examples are showed to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed scheme.

Interplay between the local information based behavioral responses and the epidemic spreading in complex networks

The spreading of an infectious disease can trigger human behavior responses to the disease, which in turn plays a crucial role on the spreading of epidemic. In this study, to illustrate the impacts of the human behavioral responses, a new class of individuals, S(F), is introduced to the classical susceptible-infected-recovered model. In the model, S(F) state represents that susceptible individuals who take self-initiate protective measures to lower the probability of being infected, and a susceptible individual may go to S(F) state with a response rate when contacting an infectious neighbor. Via the percolation method, the theoretical formulas for the epidemic threshold as well as the prevalence of epidemic are derived. Our finding indicates that, with the increasing of the response rate, the epidemic threshold is enhanced and the prevalence of epidemic is reduced. The analytical results are also verified by the numerical simulations. In addition, we demonstrate that, because the mean field method neglects the dynamic correlations, a wrong result based on the mean field method is obtained-the epidemic threshold is not related to the response rate, i.e., the additional S(F) state has no impact on the epidemic threshold.

Numerical identification of epidemic thresholds for susceptible-infected-recovered model on finite-size networks

Epidemic threshold has always been a very hot topic for studying epidemic dynamics on complex networks. The previous studies have provided different theoretical predictions of the epidemic threshold for the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, but the numerical verification of these theoretical predictions is still lacking. Considering that the large fluctuation of the outbreak size occurs near the epidemic threshold, we propose a novel numerical identification method of SIR epidemic threshold by analyzing the peak of the epidemic variability. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world networks demonstrate that the variability measure can successfully give the numerical threshold for the SIR model. The heterogeneous mean-field prediction agrees very well with the numerical threshold, except the case that the networks are disassortative, in which the quenched mean-field prediction is relatively close to the numerical threshold. Moreover, the numerical method presented is also suitable for the susceptible-infected-susceptible model. This work helps to verify the theoretical analysis of epidemic threshold and would promote further studies on the phase transition of epidemic dynamics.

The strength of weak connections in the macaque cortico-cortical network

Examination of the cortico-cortical network of mammals has unraveled key topological features and their role in the function of the healthy and diseased brain. Recent findings from social and biological networks pinpoint the significant role of weak connections in network coherence and mediation of information from segregated parts of the network. In the current study, inspired by such findings and proposed architectures pertaining to social networks, we examine the structure of weak connections in the macaque cortico-cortical network by employing a tract-tracing dataset. We demonstrate that the cortico-cortical connections as a whole, as well as connections between segregated communities of brain areas, comply with the architecture suggested by the so-called strength-of-weak-ties hypothesis. However, we find that the wiring of these connections is not optimal with respect to the aforementioned architecture. This configuration is not attributable to a trade-off with factors known to constrain brain wiring, i.e., wiring cost and efficiency. Lastly, weak connections, but not strong ones, appear important for network cohesion. Our findings relate a topological property to the strength of cortico-cortical connections, highlight the prominent role of weak connections in the cortico-cortical structural network and pinpoint their potential functional significance. These findings suggest that certain neuroimaging studies, despite methodological challenges, should explicitly take them into account and not treat them as negligible.

Asymmetrically interacting spreading dynamics on complex layered networks

The spread of disease through a physical-contact network and the spread of information about the disease on a communication network are two intimately related dynamical processes. We investigate the asymmetrical interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics, each occurring on its own layer, by focusing on the two fundamental quantities underlying any spreading process: epidemic threshold and the final infection ratio. We find that an epidemic outbreak on the contact layer can induce an outbreak on the communication layer, and information spreading can effectively raise the epidemic threshold. When structural correlation exists between the two layers, the information threshold remains unchanged but the epidemic threshold can be enhanced, making the contact layer more resilient to epidemic outbreak. We develop a physical theory to understand the intricate interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics.

An efficient immunization strategy for community networks

An efficient algorithm that can properly identify the targets to immunize or quarantine for preventing an epidemic in a population without knowing the global structural information is of obvious importance. Typically, a population is characterized by its community structure and the heterogeneity in the weak ties among nodes bridging over communities. We propose and study an effective algorithm that searches for bridge hubs, which are bridge nodes with a larger number of weak ties, as immunizing targets based on the idea of referencing to an expanding friendship circle as a self-avoiding walk proceeds. Applying the algorithm to simulated networks and empirical networks constructed from social network data of five US universities, we show that the algorithm is more effective than other existing local algorithms for a given immunization coverage, with a reduced final epidemic ratio, lower peak prevalence and fewer nodes that need to be visited before identifying the target nodes. The effectiveness stems from the breaking up of community networks by successful searches on target nodes with more weak ties. The effectiveness remains robust even when errors exist in the structure of the networks.

Impacts of subsidy policies on vaccination decisions in contact networks

To motivate more people to participate in vaccination campaigns, various subsidy policies are often supplied by government and the health sectors. However, these external incentives may also alter the vaccination decisions of the broader public, and hence the choice of incentive needs to be carefully considered. Since human behavior and the networking-constrained interactions among individuals significantly impact the evolution of an epidemic, here we consider the voluntary vaccination on human contact networks. To this end, two categories of typical subsidy policies are considered: (1) under the free subsidy policy, the total amount of subsidy is distributed to a certain fraction of individual and who are vaccinated without personal cost, and (2) under the partial-offset subsidy policy, each vaccinated person is offset by a certain amount of subsidy. A vaccination decision model based on evolutionary game theory is established to study the effects of these different subsidy policies on disease control. Simulations suggest that, because the partial-offset subsidy policy encourages more people to take vaccination, its performance is significantly better than that of the free subsidy policy. However, an interesting phenomenon emerges in the partial-offset scenario: with limited amount of total subsidy, a moderate subsidy rate for each vaccinated individual can guarantee the group-optimal vaccination, leading to the maximal social benefits, while such an optimal phenomenon is not evident for the free subsidy scenario.