Uncertainty quantification of DFT-predicted finite temperature thermodynamic properties within the Debye model

Exploration of Free Energy Surface of the Au10 Nanocluster at Finite Temperature

The first step in comprehending the properties of Au10 clusters is understanding the lowest energy structure at low and high temperatures. Functional materials operate at finite temperatures; however, energy computations employing density functional theory (DFT) methodology are typically carried out at zero temperature, leaving many properties unexplored. This study explored the potential and free energy surface of the neutral Au10 nanocluster at a finite temperature, employing a genetic algorithm coupled with DFT and nanothermodynamics. Furthermore, we computed the thermal population and infrared Boltzmann spectrum at a finite temperature and compared it with the validated experimental data. Moreover, we performed the chemical bonding analysis using the quantum theory of atoms in molecules (QTAIM) approach and the adaptive natural density partitioning method (AdNDP) to shed light on the bonding of Au atoms in the low-energy structures. In the calculations, we take into consideration the relativistic effects through the zero-order regular approximation (ZORA), the dispersion through Grimme's dispersion with Becke-Johnson damping (D3BJ), and we employed nanothermodynamics to consider temperature contributions. Small Au clusters prefer the planar shape, and the transition from 2D to 3D could take place at atomic clusters consisting of ten atoms, which could be affected by temperature, relativistic effects, and dispersion. We analyzed the energetic ordering of structures calculated using DFT with ZORA and single-point energy calculation employing the DLPNO-CCSD(T) methodology. Our findings indicate that the planar lowest energy structure computed with DFT is not the lowest energy structure computed at the DLPN0-CCSD(T) level of theory. The computed thermal population indicates that the 2D elongated hexagon configuration strongly dominates at a temperature range of 50-800 K. Based on the thermal population, at a temperature of 100 K, the computed IR Boltzmann spectrum agrees with the experimental IR spectrum. The chemical bonding analysis on the lowest energy structure indicates that the cluster bond is due only to the electrons of the 6 s orbital, and the Au d orbitals do not participate in the bonding of this system.

Uncertainty-aware mixed-variable machine learning for materials design

Data-driven design shows the promise of accelerating materials discovery but is challenging due to the prohibitive cost of searching the vast design space of chemistry, structure, and synthesis methods. Bayesian optimization (BO) employs uncertainty-aware machine learning models to select promising designs to evaluate, hence reducing the cost. However, BO with mixed numerical and categorical variables, which is of particular interest in materials design, has not been well studied. In this work, we survey frequentist and Bayesian approaches to uncertainty quantification of machine learning with mixed variables. We then conduct a systematic comparative study of their performances in BO using a popular representative model from each group, the random forest-based Lolo model (frequentist) and the latent variable Gaussian process model (Bayesian). We examine the efficacy of the two models in the optimization of mathematical functions, as well as properties of structural and functional materials, where we observe performance differences as related to problem dimensionality and complexity. By investigating the machine learning models’ predictive and uncertainty estimation capabilities, we provide interpretations of the observed performance differences. Our results provide practical guidance on choosing between frequentist and Bayesian uncertainty-aware machine learning models for mixed-variable BO in materials design.

The long road to calibrated prediction uncertainty in computational chemistry

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational chemistry (CC) is still in its infancy. Very few CC methods are designed to provide a confidence level on their predictions, and most users still rely improperly on the mean absolute error as an accuracy metric. The development of reliable UQ methods is essential, notably for CC to be used confidently in industrial processes. A review of the CC-UQ literature shows that there is no common standard procedure to report or validate prediction uncertainty. I consider here analysis tools using concepts (calibration and sharpness) developed in meteorology and machine learning for the validation of probabilistic forecasters. These tools are adapted to CC-UQ and applied to datasets of prediction uncertainties provided by composite methods, Bayesian ensembles methods, and machine learning and a posteriori statistical methods.

Uncertainty Quantification in Atomistic Modeling of Metals and Its Effect on Mesoscale and Continuum Modeling: A Review

The design of next-generation alloys through the integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) approach relies on multiscale computer simulations to provide thermodynamic properties when experiments are difficult to conduct. Atomistic methods such as density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD) have been successful in predicting properties of never before studied compounds or phases. However, uncertainty quantification (UQ) of DFT and MD results is rarely reported due to computational and UQ methodology challenges. Over the past decade, studies that mitigate this gap have emerged. These advances are reviewed in the context of thermodynamic modeling and information exchange with mesoscale methods such as the phase-field method (PFM) and calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD). The importance of UQ is illustrated using properties of metals, with aluminum as an example, and highlighting deterministic, frequentist, and Bayesian methodologies. Challenges facing routine uncertainty quantification and an outlook on addressing them are also presented.