Adaptation of sea turtles to climate warming: Will phenological responses be sufficient to counteract changes in reproductive output?

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a "middle of the road" scenario (SSP2-4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26-43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present-day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from -20 to -191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming.

Climate warming and sea turtle sex ratios across the globe

Climate warming and the feminization of populations due to temperature-dependent sex determination may threaten sea turtles with extinction. To identify sites of heightened risk, we examined sex ratio data and patterns of climate change over multiple decades for 64 nesting sites spread across the globe. Over the last 62 years the mean change in air temperature was 0.85°C per century (SD = 0.65°C, range = -0.53 to +2.5°C, n = 64 nesting sites). Temperatures increased at 40 of the 64 study sites. Female-skewed hatchling or juvenile sex ratios occurred at 57 of the 64 sites, with skews >90% female at 17 sites. We did not uncover a relationship between the extent of warming and sex ratio (r62  = -0.03, p = .802, n = 64 nesting sites). Hence, our results suggest that female-hatchling sex ratio skews are not simply a consequence of recent warming but have likely persisted at some sites for many decades. So other factors aside from recent warming must drive these variations in sex ratios across nesting sites, such as variations in nesting behaviour (e.g. nest depth), substrate (e.g. sand albedo), shading available and rainfall patterns. While overall across sites recent warming is not linked to hatchling sex ratio, at some sites there is both is a high female skew and high warming, such as Raine Island (Australia; 99% female green turtles; 1.27°C warming per century), nesting beaches in Cyprus (97.1% female green turtles; 1.68°C warming per century) and in the Dutch Caribbean (St Eustatius; 91.5% female leatherback turtles; 1.15°C warming per century). These may be among the first sites where management intervention is needed to increase male production. Continued monitoring of sand temperatures and sex ratios are recommended to help identify when high incubation temperatures threaten population viability.

Effects of postovipositional hypoxia and hyperoxia on leatherback turtle reproductive success and hatchling performance

Leatherback egg clutches typically experience lower hatching success (~50%) than those of other sea turtle species (>70%). The majority of embryonic death (>50%) occurs at early stages of development, possibly because embryos fail to break preovipositional embryonic arrest after oviposition. The embryonic arrest is maintained by hypoxia in the oviduct and following oviposition increased availability of oxygen is the trigger that breaks arrest in all turtle species studied to date. We conducted an ex situ incubator experiment and an in situ hatchery experiment to examine the influence of oxygen availability on hatching success and hatchling traits in leatherbacks. After oviposition, eggs (n = 1005) were incubated in either normoxia (21% O2 ), hyperoxia (32%-42% O2 ) for 5 days, or hypoxia (1% O2 ) for 3 or 5 days. As with other turtles, hypoxic incubation maintained embryos in arrest, equivalent to the time spent in hypoxia. However, extending arrest for 5 days resulted in greater early-stage death and a significant decrease in hatching success (4% 5-day hypoxia vs. 72% normoxia). Eggs placed in incubators had greater hatching success than those placed into hatchery nests (67% vs. 47%, respectively). We found no impact of hyperoxia on the stage of embryonic death, hatching success, hatchling phenotype, exercise performance, or early dispersal. Our findings indicate that delayed nesting and the subsequent extension of embryonic arrest may negatively impact embryonic development and therefore the reproductive success of leatherbacks. They also indicate that incubation under hyperoxic conditions is unlikely to be a useful method to improve hatching success in this species.

Evidence of adult male scarcity associated with female-skewed offspring sex ratios in sea turtles

Climate change is a clear and present threat to species survival. For species with temperature-dependent sex determination, including all sea turtles, it has been hypothesised that climate change may drive the creation of sex-ratio biases leading to population extinctions¹. Through a global analysis across multiple species, we present the first direct empirical evidence for a demographic consequence of male scarcity in sea turtle populations, with a lower incidence of multiple paternity being found in populations with more extreme female-biased hatchling sex-ratio skews. For green turtles, when the female bias in hatchling sex ratio was >90%, the incidence of multiple paternity was low compared to other nesting sites, being 24.5% in the eastern Mediterranean (Cyprus), 36.4% on Redang Island (Malaysia) and 15.4% on the southern Great Barrier Reef (Heron Island, Australia) compared to higher values (range 61.1-91.7%) at other sites globally. These results suggest that a low incidence of multiple paternity may serve as a harbinger of future problems with egg fertility if males become even scarcer. Assessments of the incidence of multiple paternity at sites where adult males are expected to become scarce, such as Raine Island on the northern Great Barrier Reef in Australia, may help to identify when a lack of males raises the threat of local extinctions. In such cases, intervention to increase the production of male hatchlings may be needed.

Increasing hypoxia progressively slows early embryonic development in an oviparous reptile, the green turtle, Chelonia mydas

Green turtle (Chelonia mydas) embryos are in an arrested state of development when the eggs are laid, but in the presence of oxygen, arrest is broken and development resumes within 12-16 h. However, the precise oxygen level at which embryos break arrest and continue development is not known. To better understand the impact of oxygen concentration on breaking of arrest and early embryonic development, we incubated freshly laid eggs of the green sea turtle for three days at each of six different oxygen concentrations (less than or equal to 1%, 3%, 5%, 7%, 9% and 21%) and monitored the appearance and growth of white spots on the shell, indicative of embryonic development. As reported previously, white spots did not develop on eggs incubated in anoxia (less than or equal to 1% oxygen). For all other treatments, mean time to white spot detection and white spot growth rate varied inversely with oxygen concentration. In nearly all cases the difference between eggs at different oxygen levels was statistically significant (p ≤ 0.05). This suggests that sea turtle embryonic development may respond to oxygen in a dose-dependent manner. Our results indicate that the development of green turtle embryos may be slowed if they are exposed to the most hypoxic conditions reported in mature natural nests.