A biophysical protein folding model accounts for most mutational fitness effects in viruses

A systematic evaluation of the language-of-viral-escape model using multiple machine learning frameworks

Predicting the evolutionary patterns of emerging and endemic viruses is key for mitigating their spread. In particular, it is critical to rapidly identify mutations with the potential for immune escape or increased disease burden. Knowing which circulating mutations pose a concern can inform treatment or mitigation strategies such as alternative vaccines or targeted social distancing. In 2021, Hie B, Zhong ED, Berger B, Bryson B. 2021 Learning the language of viral evolution and escape. Science 371, 284-288. (doi:10.1126/science.abd7331) proposed that variants of concern can be identified using two quantities extracted from protein language models, grammaticality and semantic change. These quantities are defined by analogy to concepts from natural language processing. Grammaticality is intended to be a measure of whether a variant viral protein is viable, and semantic change is intended to be a measure of potential for immune escape. Here, we systematically test this hypothesis, taking advantage of several high-throughput datasets that have become available, and also comparing this model with several more recently published machine learning models. We find that grammaticality can be a measure of protein viability, though methods that are trained explicitly to predict mutational effects appear to be more effective. By contrast, we do not find compelling evidence that semantic change is a useful tool for identifying immune escape mutations.

Evolution of evolvability in rapidly adapting populations

Mutations can alter the short-term fitness of an organism, as well as the rates and benefits of future mutations. While numerous examples of these evolvability modifiers have been observed in rapidly adapting microbial populations, existing theory struggles to predict when they will be favoured by natural selection. Here we develop a mathematical framework for predicting the fates of genetic variants that modify the rates and benefits of future mutations in linked genomic regions. We derive analytical expressions showing how the fixation probabilities of these variants depend on the size of the population and the diversity of competing mutations. We find that competition between linked mutations can dramatically enhance selection for modifiers that increase the benefits of future mutations, even when they impose a strong direct cost on fitness. However, we also find that modest direct benefits can be sufficient to drive evolutionary dead ends to fixation. Our results suggest that subtle differences in evolvability could play an important role in shaping the long-term success of genetic variants in rapidly evolving microbial populations.

Biophysical principles predict fitness of SARS-CoV-2 variants

SARS-CoV-2 employs its spike protein's receptor binding domain (RBD) to enter host cells. The RBD is constantly subjected to immune responses, while requiring efficient binding to host cell receptors for successful infection. However, our understanding of how RBD's biophysical properties contribute to SARS-CoV-2's epidemiological fitness remains largely incomplete. Through a comprehensive approach, comprising large-scale sequence analysis of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the identification of a fitness function based on binding thermodynamics, we unravel the relationship between the biophysical properties of RBD variants and their contribution to viral fitness. We developed a biophysical model that uses statistical mechanics to map the molecular phenotype space, characterized by dissociation constants of RBD to ACE2, LY-CoV016, LY-CoV555, REGN10987, and S309, onto an epistatic fitness landscape. We validate our findings through experimentally measured and machine learning (ML) estimated binding affinities, coupled with infectivity data derived from population-level sequencing. Our analysis reveals that this model effectively predicts the fitness of novel RBD variants and can account for the epistatic interactions among mutations, including explaining the later reversal of Q493R. Our study sheds light on the impact of specific mutations on viral fitness and delivers a tool for predicting the future epidemiological trajectory of previously unseen or emerging low-frequency variants. These insights offer not only greater understanding of viral evolution but also potentially aid in guiding public health decisions in the battle against COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Biophysical principles predict fitness of SARS-CoV-2 variants

SARS-CoV-2 employs its spike protein's receptor binding domain (RBD) to enter host cells. The RBD is constantly subjected to immune responses, while requiring efficient binding to host cell receptors for successful infection. However, our understanding of how RBD's biophysical properties contribute to SARS-CoV-2's epidemiological fitness remains largely incomplete. Through a comprehensive approach, comprising large-scale sequence analysis of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the discovery of a fitness function based on binding thermodynamics, we unravel the relationship between the biophysical properties of RBD variants and their contribution to viral fitness. We developed a biophysical model that uses statistical mechanics to map the molecular phenotype space, characterized by binding constants of RBD to ACE2, LY-CoV016, LY-CoV555, REGN10987, and S309, onto a epistatic fitness landscape. We validate our findings through experimentally measured and machine learning (ML) estimated binding affinities, coupled with infectivity data derived from population-level sequencing. Our analysis reveals that this model effectively predicts the fitness of novel RBD variants and can account for the epistatic interactions among mutations, including explaining the later reversal of Q493R. Our study sheds light on the impact of specific mutations on viral fitness and delivers a tool for predicting the future epidemiological trajectory of previously unseen or emerging low frequency variants. These insights offer not only greater understanding of viral evolution but also potentially aid in guiding public health decisions in the battle against COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Empirical validation of ProteinMPNN's efficiency in enhancing protein fitness

Introduction: Protein engineering, which aims to improve the properties and functions of proteins, holds great research significance and application value. However, current models that predict the effects of amino acid substitutions often perform poorly when evaluated for precision. Recent research has shown that ProteinMPNN, a large-scale pre-training sequence design model based on protein structure, performs exceptionally well. It is capable of designing mutants with structures similar to the original protein. When applied to the field of protein engineering, the diverse designs for mutation positions generated by this model can be viewed as a more precise mutation range. Methods: We collected three biological experimental datasets and compared the design results of ProteinMPNN for wild-type proteins with the experimental datasets to verify the ability of ProteinMPNN in improving protein fitness. Results: The validation on biological experimental datasets shows that ProteinMPNN has the ability to design mutation types with higher fitness in single and multi-point mutations. We have verified the high accuracy of ProteinMPNN in protein engineering tasks from both positive and negative perspectives. Discussion: Our research indicates that using large-scale pre trained models to design protein mutants provides a new approach for protein engineering, providing strong support for guiding biological experiments and applications in biotechnology.

Predicting virus Fitness: Towards a structure-based computational model

Predicting the impact of new emerging virus mutations is of major interest in surveillance and for understanding the evolutionary forces of the pathogens. The SARS-CoV-2 surface spike-protein (S-protein) binds to human ACE2 receptors as a critical step in host cell infection. At the same time, S-protein binding to human antibodies neutralizes the virus and prevents interaction with ACE2. Here we combine these two binding properties in a simple virus fitness model, using structure-based computation of all possible mutation effects averaged over 10 ACE2 complexes and 10 antibody complexes of the S-protein (∼380,000 computed mutations), and validated the approach against diverse experimental binding/escape data of ACE2 and antibodies. The ACE2-antibody selectivity change caused by mutation (i.e., the differential change in binding to ACE2 vs. immunity-inducing antibodies) is proposed to be a key metric of fitness model, enabling systematic error cancelation when evaluated. In this model, new mutations become fixated if they increase the selective binding to ACE2 relative to circulating antibodies, assuming that both are present in the host in a competitive binding situation. We use this model to categorize viral mutations that may best reach ACE2 before being captured by antibodies. Our model may aid the understanding of variant-specific vaccines and molecular mechanisms of viral evolution in the context of a human host.

Deep mutational scanning of influenza A virus neuraminidase facilitates the identification of drug resistance mutations in vivo

IMPORTANCE

NA is a crucial surface antigen and drug target of influenza A virus. A comprehensive understanding of NA's mutational effect and drug resistance profiles in vivo is essential for comprehending the evolutionary constraints and making informed choices regarding drug selection to combat resistance in clinical settings. In the current study, we established an efficient deep mutational screening system in mouse lung tissues and systematically evaluated the fitness effect and drug resistance to three neuraminidase inhibitors of NA single-nucleotide mutations. The fitness of NA mutants is generally correlated with a natural mutation in the database. The fitness of NA mutants is influenced by biophysical factors such as protein stability, complex formation, and the immune response triggered by viral infection. In addition to confirming previously reported drug-resistant mutations, novel mutations were identified. Interestingly, we identified an allosteric drug-resistance mutation that is not located within the drug-binding pocket but potentially affects drug binding by interfering with NA tetramerization. The dual assessments performed in this study provide a more accurate assessment of the evolutionary potential of drug-resistant mutations and offer guidance for the rational selection of antiviral drugs.

Viral Evolution Shaped by Host Proteostasis Networks

Understanding the factors that shape viral evolution is critical for developing effective antiviral strategies, accurately predicting viral evolution, and preventing pandemics. One fundamental determinant of viral evolution is the interplay between viral protein biophysics and the host machineries that regulate protein folding and quality control. Most adaptive mutations in viruses are biophysically deleterious, resulting in a viral protein product with folding defects. In cells, protein folding is assisted by a dynamic system of chaperones and quality control processes known as the proteostasis network. Host proteostasis networks can determine the fates of viral proteins with biophysical defects, either by assisting with folding or by targeting them for degradation. In this review, we discuss and analyze new discoveries revealing that host proteostasis factors can profoundly shape the sequence space accessible to evolving viral proteins. We also discuss the many opportunities for research progress proffered by the proteostasis perspective on viral evolution and adaptation.

Facile Method for High-throughput Identification of Stabilizing Mutations

Characterizing the effects of mutations on stability is critical for understanding the function and evolution of proteins and improving their biophysical properties. High throughput folding and abundance assays have been successfully used to characterize missense mutations associated with reduced stability. However, screening for increased thermodynamic stability is more challenging since such mutations are rarer and their impact on assay readout is more subtle. Here, a multiplex assay for high throughput screening of protein folding was developed by combining deep mutational scanning, fluorescence-activated cell sorting, and deep sequencing. By analyzing a library of 2000 variants of Adenylate kinase we demonstrate that the readout of the method correlates with stability and that mutants with up to 13 °C increase in thermal melting temperature could be identified with low false positive rate. The discovery of many stabilizing mutations also enabled the analysis of general substitution patterns associated with increased stability in Adenylate kinase. This high throughput method to identify stabilizing mutations can be combined with functional screens to identify mutations that improve both stability and activity.

Dominance vs epistasis: the biophysical origins and plasticity of genetic interactions within and between alleles

An important challenge in genetics, evolution and biotechnology is to understand and predict how mutations combine to alter phenotypes, including molecular activities, fitness and disease. In diploids, mutations in a gene can combine on the same chromosome or on different chromosomes as a "heteroallelic combination". However, a direct comparison of the extent, sign, and stability of the genetic interactions between variants within and between alleles is lacking. Here we use thermodynamic models of protein folding and ligand-binding to show that interactions between mutations within and between alleles are expected in even very simple biophysical systems. Protein folding alone generates within-allele interactions and a single molecular interaction is sufficient to cause between-allele interactions and dominance. These interactions change differently, quantitatively and qualitatively as a system becomes more complex. Altering the concentration of a ligand can, for example, switch alleles from dominant to recessive. Our results show that intra-molecular epistasis and dominance should be widely expected in even the simplest biological systems but also reinforce the view that they are plastic system properties and so a formidable challenge to predict. Accurate prediction of both intra-molecular epistasis and dominance will require either detailed mechanistic understanding and experimental parameterization or brute-force measurement and learning.

Viral Fitness Landscapes Based on Self-organizing Maps

The creation of fitness maps from viral populations especially in the case of RNA viruses, with high mutation rates producing quasispecies, is complex since the mutant spectrum is in a very high-dimensional space. In this work, a new approach is presented using a class of neural networks, Self-Organized Maps (SOM), to represent realistic fitness landscapes in two RNA viruses: Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV). This methodology has proven to be very effective in the classification of viral quasispecies, using as criterium the mutant sequences in the population. With HIV-1, the fitness landscapes are constructed by representing the experimentally determined fitness on the sequence map. This approach permitted the depiction of the evolutionary paths of the variants subjected to processes of fitness loss and gain in cell culture. In the case of HCV, the efficiency was measured as a function of the frequency of each haplotype in the population by ultra-deep sequencing. The fitness landscapes obtained provided information on the efficiency of each variant in the quasispecies environment, that is, in relation to the entire spectrum of mutants. With the SOM maps, it is possible to determine the evolutionary dynamics of the different haplotypes.

Viral Fitness, Population Complexity, Host Interactions, and Resistance to Antiviral Agents

Fitness of viruses has become a standard parameter to quantify their adaptation to a biological environment. Fitness determinations for RNA viruses (and some highly variable DNA viruses) meet with several uncertainties. Of particular interest are those that arise from mutant spectrum complexity, absence of population equilibrium, and internal interactions among components of a mutant spectrum. Here, concepts, fitness measurements, limitations, and current views on experimental viral fitness landscapes are discussed. The effect of viral fitness on resistance to antiviral agents is covered in some detail since it constitutes a widespread problem in antiviral pharmacology, and a challenge for the design of effective antiviral treatments. Recent evidence with hepatitis C virus suggests the operation of mechanisms of antiviral resistance additional to the standard selection of drug-escape mutants. The possibility that high replicative fitness may be the driver of such alternative mechanisms is considered. New broad-spectrum antiviral designs that target viral fitness may curtail the impact of drug-escape mutants in treatment failures. We consider to what extent fitness-related concepts apply to coronaviruses and how they may affect strategies for COVID-19 prevention and treatment.

Increasing protein stability by inferring substitution effects from high-throughput experiments

We apply a computational model, global multi-mutant analysis (GMMA), to inform on effects of most amino acid substitutions from a randomly mutated gene library. Using a high mutation frequency, the method can determine mutations that increase the stability of even very stable proteins for which conventional selection systems have reached their limit. As a demonstration of this, we screened a mutant library of a highly stable and computationally redesigned model protein using an in vivo genetic sensor for folding and assigned a stability effect to 374 of 912 possible single amino acid substitutions. Combining the top 9 substitutions increased the unfolding energy 47 to 69 kJ/mol in a single engineering step. Crystal structures of stabilized variants showed small perturbations in helices 1 and 2, which rendered them closer in structure to the redesign template. This case study illustrates the capability of the method, which is applicable to any screen for protein function.

Stability and expression of SARS-CoV-2 spike-protein mutations

Protein fold stability likely plays a role in SARS-CoV-2 S-protein evolution, together with ACE2 binding and antibody evasion. While few thermodynamic stability data are available for S-protein mutants, many systematic experimental data exist for their expression. In this paper, we explore whether such expression levels relate to the thermodynamic stability of the mutants. We studied mutation-induced SARS-CoV-2 S-protein fold stability, as computed by three very distinct methods and eight different protein structures to account for method- and structure-dependencies. For all methods and structures used (24 comparisons), computed stability changes correlate significantly (99% confidence level) with experimental yeast expression from the literature, such that higher expression is associated with relatively higher fold stability. Also significant, albeit weaker, correlations were seen between stability and ACE2 binding effects. The effect of thermodynamic fold stability may be direct or a correlate of amino acid or site properties, notably the solvent exposure of the site. Correlation between computed stability and experimental expression and ACE2 binding suggests that functional properties of the SARS-CoV-2 S-protein mutant space are largely determined by a few simple features, due to underlying correlations. Our study lends promise to the development of computational tools that may ideally aid in understanding and predicting SARS-CoV-2 S-protein evolution.

Local and Global Protein Interactions Contribute to Residue Entrenchment in Beta-Lactamase TEM-1

Due to their rapid evolution and their impact on healthcare, beta-lactamases, protein degrading beta-lactam antibiotics, are used as generic models of protein evolution. Therefore, we investigated the mutation effects in two distant beta-lactamases, TEM-1 and CTX-M-15. Interestingly, we found a site with a complex pattern of genetic interactions. Mutation G251W in TEM-1 inactivates the protein’s function, just as the reciprocal mutation, W251G, does in CTX-M-15. The phylogenetic analysis revealed that mutation G has been entrenched in TEM-1’s background: while rarely observed throughout the phylogeny, it is essential in TEM-1. Using a rescue experiment, in the TEM-1 G251W mutant, we identified sites that alleviate the deviation from G to W. While few of these mutations could potentially involve local interactions, most of them were found on distant residues in the 3D structure. Many well-known mutations that have an impact on protein stability, such as M182T, were recovered. Our results therefore suggest that entrenchment of an amino acid may rely on diffuse interactions among multiple sites, with a major impact on protein stability.

Convergent Evolution of Multiple Mutations Improves the Viral Fitness of SARS-CoV-2 Variants by Balancing Positive and Negative Selection

Multiple mutations have been seen to undergo convergent evolution in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. One such evolution occurs in Beta, Gamma, and Omicron variants at three amino acid positions K417, E484, and N501 in the receptor binding domain of the spike protein. We examined the physical mechanisms underlying the convergent evolution of three mutations K417T/E484K/N501Y by delineating the individual and collective effects of mutations on binding to angiotensin converting enzyme 2 receptor, immune escape from neutralizing antibodies, protein stability, and expression. Our results show that each mutation serves a distinct function that improves virus fitness supporting its positive selection, even though individual mutations have deleterious effects that make them prone to negative selection. Compared to the wild-type, K417T escapes Class 1 antibodies and has increased stability and expression; however, it has decreased receptor binding. E484K escapes Class 2 antibodies; however, it has decreased receptor binding, stability, and expression. N501Y increases receptor binding; however, it has decreased stability and expression. When these mutations come together, the deleterious effects are mitigated due to the presence of compensatory effects. Triple mutant K417T/E484K/N501Y has increased receptor binding, escapes both Class 1 and Class 2 antibodies, and has similar stability and expression as that of the wild-type. These results show that the convergent evolution of multiple mutations enhances viral fitness on different fronts by balancing both positive and negative selection and improves the chances of selection of mutations together.

Plasticity in structure and assembly of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein

Worldwide SARS-CoV-2 sequencing efforts track emerging mutations in its spike protein, as well as characteristic mutations in other viral proteins. Besides their epidemiological importance, the observed SARS-CoV-2 sequences present an ensemble of viable protein variants, and thereby a source of information on viral protein structure and function. Charting the mutational landscape of the nucleocapsid (N) protein that facilitates viral assembly, we observe variability exceeding that of the spike protein, with more than 86% of residues that can be substituted, on average by three to four different amino acids. However, mutations exhibit an uneven distribution that tracks known structural features but also reveals highly protected stretches of unknown function. One of these conserved regions is in the central disordered linker proximal to the N-G215C mutation that has become dominant in the Delta variant, outcompeting G215 variants without further spike or N-protein substitutions. Structural models suggest that the G215C mutation stabilizes conserved transient helices in the disordered linker serving as protein-protein interaction interfaces. Comparing Delta variant N-protein to its ancestral version in biophysical experiments, we find a significantly more compact and less disordered structure. N-G215C exhibits substantially stronger self-association, shifting the unliganded protein from a dimeric to a tetrameric oligomeric state, which leads to enhanced coassembly with nucleic acids. This suggests that the sequence variability of N-protein is mirrored by high plasticity of N-protein biophysical properties, which we hypothesize can be exploited by SARS-CoV-2 to achieve greater efficiency of viral assembly, and thereby enhanced infectivity.

Evolutionary Landscapes of Host-Virus Arms Races

Vertebrate immune systems suppress viral infection using both innate restriction factors and adaptive immunity. Viruses mutate to escape these defenses, driving hosts to counterevolve to regain fitness. This cycle recurs repeatedly, resulting in an evolutionary arms race whose outcome depends on the pace and likelihood of adaptation by host and viral genes. Although viruses evolve faster than their vertebrate hosts, their proteins are subject to numerous functional constraints that impact the probability of adaptation. These constraints are globally defined by evolutionary landscapes, which describe the fitness and adaptive potential of all possible mutations. We review deep mutational scanning experiments mapping the evolutionary landscapes of both host and viral proteins engaged in arms races. For restriction factors and some broadly neutralizing antibodies, landscapes favor the host, which may help to level the evolutionary playing field against rapidly evolving viruses. We discuss the biophysical underpinnings of these landscapes and their therapeutic implications.

Environmental selection and epistasis in an empirical phenotype-environment-fitness landscape

Fitness landscapes, mappings of genotype/phenotype to their effects on fitness, are invaluable concepts in evolutionary biochemistry. Although widely discussed, measurements of phenotype-fitness landscapes in proteins remain scarce. Here, we quantify all single mutational effects on fitness and phenotype (EC₅₀) of VIM-2 β-lactamase across a 64-fold range of ampicillin concentrations. We then construct a phenotype-fitness landscape that takes variations in environmental selection pressure into account. We found that a simple, empirical landscape accurately models the ~39,000 mutational data points, suggesting that the evolution of VIM-2 can be predicted on the basis of the selection environment. Our landscape provides new quantitative knowledge on the evolution of the β-lactamases and proteins in general, particularly their evolutionary dynamics under subinhibitory antibiotic concentrations, as well as the mechanisms and environmental dependence of non-specific epistasis.

The endoplasmic reticulum proteostasis network profoundly shapes the protein sequence space accessible to HIV envelope

The sequence space accessible to evolving proteins can be enhanced by cellular chaperones that assist biophysically defective clients in navigating complex folding landscapes. It is also possible, at least in theory, for proteostasis mechanisms that promote strict quality control to greatly constrain accessible protein sequence space. Unfortunately, most efforts to understand how proteostasis mechanisms influence evolution rely on artificial inhibition or genetic knockdown of specific chaperones. The few experiments that perturb quality control pathways also generally modulate the levels of only individual quality control factors. Here, we use chemical genetic strategies to tune proteostasis networks via natural stress response pathways that regulate the levels of entire suites of chaperones and quality control mechanisms. Specifically, we upregulate the unfolded protein response (UPR) to test the hypothesis that the host endoplasmic reticulum (ER) proteostasis network shapes the sequence space accessible to human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) envelope (Env) protein. Elucidating factors that enhance or constrain Env sequence space is critical because Env evolves extremely rapidly, yielding HIV strains with antibody- and drug-escape mutations. We find that UPR-mediated upregulation of ER proteostasis factors, particularly those controlled by the IRE1-XBP1s UPR arm, globally reduces Env mutational tolerance. Conserved, functionally important Env regions exhibit the largest decreases in mutational tolerance upon XBP1s induction. Our data indicate that this phenomenon likely reflects strict quality control endowed by XBP1s-mediated remodeling of the ER proteostasis environment. Intriguingly, and in contrast, specific regions of Env, including regions targeted by broadly neutralizing antibodies, display enhanced mutational tolerance when XBP1s is induced, hinting at a role for host proteostasis network hijacking in potentiating antibody escape. These observations reveal a key function for proteostasis networks in decreasing instead of expanding the sequence space accessible to client proteins, while also demonstrating that the host ER proteostasis network profoundly shapes the mutational tolerance of Env in ways that could have important consequences for HIV adaptation.

The host cell’s endoplasmic reticulum proteostasis network has a profound, constraining impact on the protein sequence space accessible to HIV’s envelope protein, which is a major target of the host’s adaptive immune system; in particular, upregulation of stringent quality control pathways appears to restrict the viability of destabilizing envelope variants.

Plasticity in structure and assembly of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein

Worldwide SARS-CoV-2 sequencing efforts track emerging mutations in its spike protein, as well as characteristic mutations in other viral proteins. Besides their epidemiological importance, the observed SARS-CoV-2 sequences present an ensemble of viable protein variants, and thereby a source of information on viral protein structure and function. Charting the mutational landscape of the nucleocapsid (N) protein that facilitates viral assembly, we observe variability exceeding that of the spike protein, with more than 86% of residues that can be substituted, on average by 3-4 different amino acids. However, mutations exhibit an uneven distribution that tracks known structural features but also reveals highly protected stretches of unknown function. One of these conserved regions is in the central disordered linker proximal to the N-G215C mutation that has become dominant in the Delta variant, outcompeting G215 variants without further spike or N-protein substitutions. Structural models suggest that the G215C mutation stabilizes conserved transient helices in the disordered linker serving as protein-protein interaction interfaces. Comparing Delta variant N-protein to its ancestral version in biophysical experiments, we find a significantly more compact and less disordered structure. N-G215C exhibits substantially stronger self-association, shifting the unliganded protein from a dimeric to a tetrameric oligomeric state, which leads to enhanced co-assembly with nucleic acids. This suggests that the sequence variability of N-protein is mirrored by high plasticity of N-protein biophysical properties, which we hypothesize can be exploited by SARS-CoV-2 to achieve greater efficiency of viral assembly, and thereby enhanced infectivity.

Structure and Mutations of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein: A Focused Overview

The spike protein (S-protein) of SARS-CoV-2, the protein that enables the virus to infect human cells, is the basis for many vaccines and a hotspot of concerning virus evolution. Here, we discuss the outstanding progress in structural characterization of the S-protein and how these structures facilitate analysis of virus function and evolution. We emphasize the differences in reported structures and that analysis of structure-function relationships is sensitive to the structure used. We show that the average residue solvent exposure in nearly complete structures is a good descriptor of open vs closed conformation states. Because of structural heterogeneity of functionally important surface-exposed residues, we recommend using averages of a group of high-quality protein structures rather than a single structure before reaching conclusions on specific structure-function relationships. To illustrate these points, we analyze some significant chemical tendencies of prominent S-protein mutations in the context of the available structures. In the discussion of new variants, we emphasize the selectivity of binding to ACE2 vs prominent antibodies rather than simply the antibody escape or ACE2 affinity separately. We note that larger chemical changes, in particular increased electrostatic charge or side-chain volume of exposed surface residues, are recurring in mutations of concern, plausibly related to adaptation to the negative surface potential of human ACE2. We also find indications that the fixated mutations of the S-protein in the main variants are less destabilizing than would be expected on average, possibly pointing toward a selection pressure on the S-protein. The richness of available structures for all of these situations provides an enormously valuable basis for future research into these structure-function relationships.

A Two-Level, Intramutant Spectrum Haplotype Profile of Hepatitis C Virus Revealed by Self-Organized Maps

RNA viruses replicate as complex mutant spectra termed viral quasispecies. The frequency of each individual genome in a mutant spectrum depends on its rate of generation and its relative fitness in the replicating population ensemble. The advent of deep sequencing methodologies allows for the first-time quantification of haplotype abundances within mutant spectra. There is no information on the haplotype profile of the resident genomes and how the landscape evolves when a virus replicates in a controlled cell culture environment. Here, we report the construction of intramutant spectrum haplotype landscapes of three amplicons of the NS5A-NS5B coding region of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Two-dimensional (2D) neural networks were constructed for 44 related HCV populations derived from a common clonal ancestor that was passaged up to 210 times in human hepatoma Huh-7.5 cells in the absence of external selective pressures. The haplotype profiles consisted of an extended dense basal platform, from which a lower number of protruding higher peaks emerged. As HCV increased its adaptation to the cells, the number of haplotype peaks within each mutant spectrum expanded, and their distribution shifted in the 2D network. The results show that extensive HCV replication in a monotonous cell culture environment does not limit HCV exploration of sequence space through haplotype peak movements. The landscapes reflect dynamic variation in the intramutant spectrum haplotype profile and may serve as a reference to interpret the modifications produced by external selective pressures or to compare with the landscapes of mutant spectra in complex in vivo environments. IMPORTANCE The study provides for the first time the haplotype profile and its variation in the course of virus adaptation to a cell culture environment in the absence of external selective constraints. The deep sequencing-based self-organized maps document a two-layer haplotype distribution with an ample basal platform and a lower number of protruding peaks. The results suggest an inferred intramutant spectrum fitness landscape structure that offers potential benefits for virus resilience to mutational inputs.

Analyses of HIV proteases variants at the threshold of viability reveals relationships between processing efficiency and fitness

Investigating the relationships between protein function and fitness provides keys for understanding biochemical mechanisms that underly evolution. Mutations with partial fitness defects can delineate the threshold of biochemical function required for viability. We utilized a previous deep mutational scan of HIV-1 protease (PR) to identify variants with 15–45 per cent defects in replication and analysed the biochemical function of eight variants (L10M, L10S, V32C, V32I, A71V, A71S, Q92I, Q92N). We purified each variant and assessed the efficiency of peptide cleavage for three cut sites (MA-CA, TF-PR, and PR-RT) as well as gel-based analyses of processing of purified Gag. The cutting activity of at least one site was perturbed relative to WT protease for all variants, consistent with cutting activity being a primary determinant of fitness effects. We examined the correlation of fitness defects with cutting activity of different sites. MA-CA showed the weakest correlation (R² = 0.02) with fitness, suggesting relatively weak coupling with viral replication. In contrast, cutting of the TF-PR site showed the strongest correlation with fitness (R² = 0.53). Cutting at the TF-PR site creates a new PR protein with a free N-terminus that is critical for activity. Our findings indicate that increasing the pool of active PR is rate limiting for viral replication, making this an ideal step to target with inhibitors.

Antigenic evolution of human influenza H3N2 neuraminidase is constrained by charge balancing

As one of the main influenza antigens, neuraminidase (NA) in H3N2 virus has evolved extensively for more than 50 years due to continuous immune pressure. While NA has recently emerged as an effective vaccine target, biophysical constraints on the antigenic evolution of NA remain largely elusive. Here, we apply combinatorial mutagenesis and next-generation sequencing to characterize the local fitness landscape in an antigenic region of NA in six different human H3N2 strains that were isolated around 10 years apart. The local fitness landscape correlates well among strains and the pairwise epistasis is highly conserved. Our analysis further demonstrates that local net charge governs the pairwise epistasis in this antigenic region. In addition, we show that residue coevolution in this antigenic region is correlated with the pairwise epistasis between charge states. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of quantifying epistasis and the underlying biophysical constraint for building a model of influenza evolution.

Receptor binding, immune escape, and protein stability direct the natural selection of SARS-CoV-2 variants

Emergence of new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants has raised concerns related to the effectiveness of vaccines and antibody therapeutics developed against the unmutated wildtype virus. Here, we examined the effect of the 12 most commonly occurring mutations in the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein on its expression, stability, activity, and antibody escape potential. Stability was measured using thermal denaturation, and the activity and antibody escape potential were measured using isothermal titration calorimetry in terms of binding to the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 and to neutralizing human antibody CC12.1, respectively. Our results show that mutants differ in their expression levels. Of the eight best-expressed mutants, two (N501Y and K417T/E484K/N501Y) showed stronger affinity to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 compared with the wildtype, whereas four (Y453F, S477N, T478I, and S494P) had similar affinity and two (K417N and E484K) had weaker affinity than the wildtype. Compared with the wildtype, four mutants (K417N, Y453F, N501Y, and K417T/E484K/N501Y) had weaker affinity for the CC12.1 antibody, whereas two (S477N and S494P) had similar affinity, and two (T478I and E484K) had stronger affinity than the wildtype. Mutants also differ in their thermal stability, with the two least stable mutants showing reduced expression. Taken together, these results indicate that multiple factors contribute toward the natural selection of variants, and all these factors need to be considered to understand the evolution of the virus. In addition, since not all variants can escape a given neutralizing antibody, antibodies to treat new variants can be chosen based on the specific mutations in that variant.

Predicting in vivo escape dynamics of HIV-1 from a broadly neutralizing antibody

Broadly neutralizing antibodies are promising candidates for treatment and prevention of HIV-1 infections. Such antibodies can temporarily suppress viral load in infected individuals; however, the virus often rebounds by escape mutants that have evolved resistance. In this paper, we map a fitness model of HIV-1 interacting with broadly neutralizing antibodies using in vivo data from a recent clinical trial. We identify two fitness factors, antibody dosage and viral load, that determine viral reproduction rates reproducibly across different hosts. The model successfully predicts the escape dynamics of HIV-1 in the course of an antibody treatment, including a characteristic frequency turnover between sensitive and resistant strains. This turnover is governed by a dosage-dependent fitness ranking, resulting from an evolutionary trade-off between antibody resistance and its collateral cost in drug-free growth. Our analysis suggests resistance-cost trade-off curves as a measure of antibody performance in the presence of resistance evolution.

Structural and Genomic Insights Into Pyrazinamide Resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis Underlie Differences Between Ancient and Modern Lineages

Resistance to drugs used to treat tuberculosis disease (TB) continues to remain a public health burden, with missense point mutations in the underlying Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacteria described for nearly all anti-TB drugs. The post-genomics era along with advances in computational and structural biology provide opportunities to understand the interrelationships between the genetic basis and the structural consequences of M. tuberculosis mutations linked to drug resistance. Pyrazinamide (PZA) is a crucial first line antibiotic currently used in TB treatment regimens. The mutational promiscuity exhibited by the pncA gene (target for PZA) necessitates computational approaches to investigate the genetic and structural basis for PZA resistance development. We analysed 424 missense point mutations linked to PZA resistance derived from ∼35K M. tuberculosis clinical isolates sourced globally, which comprised the four main M. tuberculosis lineages (Lineage 1-4). Mutations were annotated to reflect their association with PZA resistance. Genomic measures (minor allele frequency and odds ratio), structural features (surface area, residue depth and hydrophobicity) and biophysical effects (change in stability and ligand affinity) of point mutations on pncA protein stability and ligand affinity were assessed. Missense point mutations within pncA were distributed throughout the gene, with the majority (>80%) of mutations with a destabilising effect on protomer stability and on ligand affinity. Active site residues involved in PZA binding were associated with multiple point mutations highlighting mutational diversity due to selection pressures at these functionally important sites. There were weak associations between genomic measures and biophysical effect of mutations. However, mutations associated with PZA resistance showed statistically significant differences between structural features (surface area and residue depth), but not hydrophobicity score for mutational sites. Most interestingly M. tuberculosis lineage 1 (ancient lineage) exhibited a distinct protein stability profile for mutations associated with PZA resistance, compared to modern lineages.

A thermodynamic model of protein structure evolution explains empirical amino acid substitution matrices

Proteins evolve under a myriad of biophysical selection pressures that collectively control the patterns of amino acid substitutions. These evolutionary pressures are sufficiently consistent over time and across protein families to produce substitution patterns, summarized in global amino acid substitution matrices such as BLOSUM, JTT, WAG, and LG, which can be used to successfully detect homologs, infer phylogenies, and reconstruct ancestral sequences. Although the factors that govern the variation of amino acid substitution rates have received much attention, the influence of thermodynamic stability constraints remains unresolved. Here we develop a simple model to calculate amino acid substitution matrices from evolutionary dynamics controlled by a fitness function that reports on the thermodynamic effects of amino acid mutations in protein structures. This hybrid biophysical and evolutionary model accounts for nucleotide transition/transversion rate bias, multi‐nucleotide codon changes, the number of codons per amino acid, and thermodynamic protein stability. We find that our theoretical model accurately recapitulates the complex yet universal pattern observed in common global amino acid substitution matrices used in phylogenetics. These results suggest that selection for thermodynamically stable proteins, coupled with nucleotide mutation bias filtered by the structure of the genetic code, is the primary driver behind the global amino acid substitution patterns observed in proteins throughout the tree of life.

Avoidance of protein unfolding constrains protein stability in long-term evolution

Every amino acid residue can influence a protein's overall stability, making stability highly susceptible to change throughout evolution. We consider the distribution of protein stabilities evolutionarily permittable under two previously reported protein fitness functions: flux dynamics and misfolding avoidance. We develop an evolutionary dynamics theory and find that it agrees better with an extensive protein stability data set for dihydrofolate reductase orthologs under the misfolding avoidance fitness function rather than the flux dynamics fitness function. Further investigation with ribonuclease H data demonstrates that not any misfolded state is avoided; rather, it is only the unfolded state. At the end, we discuss how our work pertains to the universal protein abundance-evolutionary rate correlation seen across organisms' proteomes. We derive a closed-form expression relating protein abundance to evolutionary rate that captures Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and Homo sapiens experimental trends without fitted parameters.

Universal Constraints on Protein Evolution in the Long-Term Evolution Experiment with Escherichia coli

Although it is well known that abundant proteins evolve slowly across the tree of life, there is little consensus for why this is true. Here, I report that abundant proteins evolve slowly in the hypermutator populations of Lenski's long-term evolution experiment with Escherichia coli (LTEE). Specifically, the density of all observed mutations per gene, as measured in metagenomic time series covering 60,000 generations of the LTEE, significantly anticorrelates with mRNA abundance, protein abundance, and degree of protein-protein interaction. The same pattern holds for nonsynonymous mutation density. However, synonymous mutation density, measured across the LTEE hypermutator populations, positively correlates with protein abundance. These results show that universal constraints on protein evolution are visible in data spanning three decades of experimental evolution. Therefore, it should be possible to design experiments to answer why abundant proteins evolve slowly.

From genotypes to organisms: State-of-the-art and perspectives of a cornerstone in evolutionary dynamics

Understanding how genotypes map onto phenotypes, fitness, and eventually organisms is arguably the next major missing piece in a fully predictive theory of evolution. We refer to this generally as the problem of the genotype-phenotype map. Though we are still far from achieving a complete picture of these relationships, our current understanding of simpler questions, such as the structure induced in the space of genotypes by sequences mapped to molecular structures, has revealed important facts that deeply affect the dynamical description of evolutionary processes. Empirical evidence supporting the fundamental relevance of features such as phenotypic bias is mounting as well, while the synthesis of conceptual and experimental progress leads to questioning current assumptions on the nature of evolutionary dynamics-cancer progression models or synthetic biology approaches being notable examples. This work delves with a critical and constructive attitude into our current knowledge of how genotypes map onto molecular phenotypes and organismal functions, and discusses theoretical and empirical avenues to broaden and improve this comprehension. As a final goal, this community should aim at deriving an updated picture of evolutionary processes soundly relying on the structural properties of genotype spaces, as revealed by modern techniques of molecular and functional analysis.

A hijack mechanism of Indian SARS-CoV-2 isolates for relapsing contemporary antiviral therapeutics

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) rapidly expands to a global pandemic and its impact on public health varies from country to country. It is caused by a new virus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It is imperative for relapsing current antiviral therapeutics owing to randomized genetic drift in global SARS-CoV-2 isolates. A molecular mechanism behind the emerging genomic variants is not yet understood for the prioritization of selective antivirals. The present computational study was aimed to repurpose existing antivirals for Indian SARS-CoV-2 isolates by uncovering a hijack mechanism based on structural and functional characteristics of protein variants. Forty-one protein mutations were identified in 12 Indian SARS-CoV-2 isolates by analysis of genome variations across 460 genome sequences obtained from 30 geographic sites in India. Two unique mutations such as W6152R and N5928H found in exonuclease of Surat (GBRC275b) and Gandhinagar (GBRC239) isolates. We report for the first time the impact of folding rate on stabilizing/retaining a sequence-structure-function-virulence link of emerging protein variants leading to accommodate hijack ability from current antivirals. Binding affinity analysis revealed the effect of point mutations on virus infectivity and the drug-escaping efficiency of Indian isolates. Emodin and artinemol suggested herein as repurposable antivirals for the treatment of COVID-19 patients infected with Indian isolates. Our study concludes that a protein folding rate is a key structural and evolutionary determinant to enhance the receptor-binding specificity and ensure hijack ability from the prevalent antiviral therapeutics.

Quantifying the Evolutionary Constraints and Potential of Hepatitis C Virus NS5A Protein

RNA viruses, such as hepatitis C virus (HCV), influenza virus, and SARS-CoV-2, are notorious for their ability to evolve rapidly under selection in novel environments. It is known that the high mutation rate of RNA viruses can generate huge genetic diversity to facilitate viral adaptation. However, less attention has been paid to the underlying fitness landscape that represents the selection forces on viral genomes, especially under different selection conditions. Here, we systematically quantified the distribution of fitness effects of about 1,600 single amino acid substitutions in the drug-targeted region of NS5A protein of HCV. We found that the majority of nonsynonymous substitutions incur large fitness costs, suggesting that NS5A protein is highly optimized. The replication fitness of viruses is correlated with the pattern of sequence conservation in nature, and viral evolution is constrained by the need to maintain protein stability. We characterized the adaptive potential of HCV by subjecting the mutant viruses to selection by the antiviral drug daclatasvir at multiple concentrations. Both the relative fitness values and the number of beneficial mutations were found to increase with the increasing concentrations of daclatasvir. The changes in the spectrum of beneficial mutations in NS5A protein can be explained by a pharmacodynamics model describing viral fitness as a function of drug concentration. Overall, our results show that the distribution of fitness effects of mutations is modulated by both the constraints on the biophysical properties of proteins (i.e., selection pressure for protein stability) and the level of environmental stress (i.e., selection pressure for drug resistance).

IMPORTANCE Many viruses adapt rapidly to novel selection pressures, such as antiviral drugs. Understanding how pathogens evolve under drug selection is critical for the success of antiviral therapy against human pathogens. By combining deep sequencing with selection experiments in cell culture, we have quantified the distribution of fitness effects of mutations in hepatitis C virus (HCV) NS5A protein. Our results indicate that the majority of single amino acid substitutions in NS5A protein incur large fitness costs. Simulation of protein stability suggests viral evolution is constrained by the need to maintain protein stability. By subjecting the mutant viruses to selection under an antiviral drug, we find that the adaptive potential of viral proteins in a novel environment is modulated by the level of environmental stress, which can be explained by a pharmacodynamics model. Our comprehensive characterization of the fitness landscapes of NS5A can potentially guide the design of effective strategies to limit viral evolution.

Large-scale in silico mutagenesis experiments reveal optimization of genetic code and codon usage for protein mutational robustness

BACKGROUND

How, and the extent to which, evolution acts on DNA and protein sequences to ensure mutational robustness and evolvability is a long-standing open question in the field of molecular evolution. We addressed this issue through the first structurome-scale computational investigation, in which we estimated the change in folding free energy upon all possible single-site mutations introduced in more than 20,000 protein structures, as well as through available experimental stability and fitness data.

RESULTS

At the amino acid level, we found the protein surface to be more robust against random mutations than the core, this difference being stronger for small proteins. The destabilizing and neutral mutations are more numerous in the core and on the surface, respectively, whereas the stabilizing mutations are about 4% in both regions. At the genetic code level, we observed smallest destabilization for mutations that are due to substitutions of base III in the codon, followed by base I, bases I+III, base II, and other multiple base substitutions. This ranking highly anticorrelates with the codon-anticodon mispairing frequency in the translation process. This suggests that the standard genetic code is optimized to limit the impact of random mutations, but even more so to limit translation errors. At the codon level, both the codon usage and the usage bias appear to optimize mutational robustness and translation accuracy, especially for surface residues.

CONCLUSION

Our results highlight the non-universality of mutational robustness and its multiscale dependence on protein features, the structure of the genetic code, and the codon usage. Our analyses and approach are strongly supported by available experimental mutagenesis data.

Higher binding affinity of furin for SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein D614G mutant could be associated with higher SARS-CoV-2 infectivity

Objective

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused an exponential rise in death rates and hospitalizations. The aim of this study was to characterize the D614G substitution in the severe acute respiratory syndome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike glycoprotein (S protein), which may affect viral infectivity.

Methods

The effect of D614G substitution on the structure and thermodynamic stability of the S protein was analyzed with use of DynaMut and SCooP. HDOCK and PRODIGY were used to model furin protease binding to the S protein RRAR cleavage site and calculate binding affinities. Molecular dynamics simulations were used to predict the S protein apo structure, the S protein–furin complex structure, and the free binding energy of the complex.

Results

The D614G substitution in the G clade of SARS-CoV-2 strains introduced structural mobility and decreased the thermal stability of the S protein (ΔΔG = −0.086 kcal mol⁻¹). The substitution resulted in stronger binding affinity (K_d = 1.6 × 10⁻⁸) for furin, which may enhance S protein cleavage. The results were corroborated by molecular dynamics simulations demonstrating higher binding energy of furin and the S protein D614G mutant (−61.9 kcal mol⁻¹ compared with −56.78 kcal mol⁻¹ for wild-type S protein).

Conclusions

The D614G substitution in the G clade induced flexibility of the S protein, resulting in increased furin binding, which may enhance S protein cleavage and infiltration of host cells. Therefore, the SARS-CoV-2 D614G substitution may result in a more virulent strain.

Survival of the cheapest: how proteome cost minimization drives evolution

Darwin's theory of evolution emphasized that positive selection of functional proficiency provides the fitness that ultimately determines the structure of life, a view that has dominated biochemical thinking of enzymes as perfectly optimized for their specific functions. The 20th-century modern synthesis, structural biology, and the central dogma explained the machinery of evolution, and nearly neutral theory explained how selection competes with random fixation dynamics that produce molecular clocks essential e.g. for dating evolutionary histories. However, quantitative proteomics revealed that selection pressures not relating to optimal function play much larger roles than previously thought, acting perhaps most importantly via protein expression levels. This paper first summarizes recent progress in the 21st century toward recovering this universal selection pressure. Then, the paper argues that proteome cost minimization is the dominant, underlying 'non-function' selection pressure controlling most of the evolution of already functionally adapted living systems. A theory of proteome cost minimization is described and argued to have consequences for understanding evolutionary trade-offs, aging, cancer, and neurodegenerative protein-misfolding diseases.

How Do Cells Adapt? Stories Told in Landscapes

Cells adapt to changing environments. Perturb a cell and it returns to a point of homeostasis. Perturb a population and it evolves toward a fitness peak. We review quantitative models of the forces of adaptation and their visualizations on landscapes. While some adaptations result from single mutations or few-gene effects, others are more cooperative, more delocalized in the genome, and more universal and physical. For example, homeostasis and evolution depend on protein folding and aggregation, energy and protein production, protein diffusion, molecular motor speeds and efficiencies, and protein expression levels. Models provide a way to learn about the fitness of cells and cell populations by making and testing hypotheses.

Predicting the viability of beta-lactamase: How folding and binding free energies correlate with beta-lactamase fitness

One of the long-standing holy grails of molecular evolution has been the ability to predict an organism's fitness directly from its genotype. With such predictive abilities in hand, researchers would be able to more accurately forecast how organisms will evolve and how proteins with novel functions could be engineered, leading to revolutionary advances in medicine and biotechnology. In this work, we assemble the largest reported set of experimental TEM-1 β-lactamase folding free energies and use this data in conjunction with previously acquired fitness data and computational free energy predictions to determine how much of the fitness of β-lactamase can be directly predicted by thermodynamic folding and binding free energies. We focus upon β-lactamase because of its long history as a model enzyme and its central role in antibiotic resistance. Based upon a set of 21 β-lactamase single and double mutants expressly designed to influence protein folding, we first demonstrate that modeling software designed to compute folding free energies such as FoldX and PyRosetta can meaningfully, although not perfectly, predict the experimental folding free energies of single mutants. Interestingly, while these techniques also yield sensible double mutant free energies, we show that they do so for the wrong physical reasons. We then go on to assess how well both experimental and computational folding free energies explain single mutant fitness. We find that folding free energies account for, at most, 24% of the variance in β-lactamase fitness values according to linear models and, somewhat surprisingly, complementing folding free energies with computationally-predicted binding free energies of residues near the active site only increases the folding-only figure by a few percent. This strongly suggests that the majority of β-lactamase's fitness is controlled by factors other than free energies. Overall, our results shed a bright light on to what extent the community is justified in using thermodynamic measures to infer protein fitness as well as how applicable modern computational techniques for predicting free energies will be to the large data sets of multiply-mutated proteins forthcoming.

Common mechanism of thermostability in small α- and β-proteins studied by molecular dynamics

Protein thermostability is important to evolution, diseases, and industrial applications. Proteins use diverse molecular strategies to achieve stability at high temperature, yet reducing the entropy of unfolding seems required. We investigated five small α-proteins and five β-proteins with known, distinct structures and thermostability (T_m ) using multi-seed molecular dynamics simulations at 300, 350, and 400 K. The proteins displayed diverse changes in hydrogen bonding, solvent exposure, and secondary structure with no simple relationship to T_m . Our dynamics were in good agreement with experimental B-factors at 300 K and insensitive to force-field choice. Despite the very distinct structures, the native-state (300 + 350 K) free-energy landscapes (FELs) were significantly broader for the two most thermostable proteins and smallest for the three least stable proteins in both the α- and β-group and with both force fields studied independently (tailed t-test, 95% confidence level). Our results suggest that entropic ensembles stabilize proteins at high temperature due to reduced entropy of unfolding, viz., ΔG = ΔH - TΔS. Supporting this mechanism, the most thermostable proteins were also the least kinetically stable, consistent with broader FELs, typified by villin headpiece and confirmed by specific comparison to a mesophilic ortholog of Thermus thermophilus apo-pyrophosphate phosphohydrolase. We propose that molecular strategies of protein thermostabilization, although diverse, tend to converge toward highest possible entropy in the native state consistent with the functional requirements. We speculate that this tendency may explain why many proteins are not optimally structured and why molten-globule states resemble native proteins so much.

Effects of Single Mutations on Protein Stability Are Gaussian Distributed

The distribution of protein stability effects is known to be well approximated by a Gaussian distribution from previous empirical fits. Starting from first-principles statistical mechanics, we more rigorously motivate this empirical observation by deriving per-residue-position protein stability effects to be Gaussian. Our derivation requires the number of amino acids to be large, which is satisfied by the standard set of 20 amino acids found in nature. No assumption is needed on the number of residues in close proximity in space, in contrast to previous applications of the central limit theorem to protein energetics. We support our derivation results with computational and experimental data on mutant protein stabilities across all types of protein residues.

High throughput sequencing of in vitro selections of mRNA-displayed peptides: data analysis and applications

In vitro selection using mRNA display is currently a widely used method to isolate functional peptides with desired properties. The analysis of high throughput sequencing (HTS) data from in vitro evolution experiments has proven to be a powerful technique but only recently has it been applied to mRNA display selections. In this Perspective, we introduce aspects of mRNA display and HTS that may be of interest to physical chemists. We highlight the potential of HTS to analyze in vitro selections of peptides and review recent advances in the application of HTS analysis to mRNA display experiments. We discuss some possible issues involved with HTS analysis and summarize some strategies to alleviate them. Finally, the potential for future impact of advancing HTS analysis on mRNA display experiments is discussed.

Impact of In Vivo Protein Folding Probability on Local Fitness Landscapes

It is incompletely understood how biophysical properties like protein stability impact molecular evolution and epistasis. Epistasis is defined as specific when a mutation exclusively influences the phenotypic effect of another mutation, often at physically interacting residues. In contrast, nonspecific epistasis results when a mutation is influenced by a large number of nonlocal mutations. As most mutations are pleiotropic, the in vivo folding probability-governed by basal protein stability-is thought to determine activity-enhancing mutational tolerance, implying that nonspecific epistasis is dominant. However, evidence exists for both specific and nonspecific epistasis as the prevalent factor, with limited comprehensive data sets to support either claim. Here, we use deep mutational scanning to probe how in vivo enzyme folding probability impacts local fitness landscapes. We computationally designed two different variants of the amidase AmiE with statistically indistinguishable catalytic efficiencies but lower probabilities of folding in vivo compared with wild-type. Local fitness landscapes show slight alterations among variants, with essentially the same global distribution of fitness effects. However, specific epistasis was predominant for the subset of mutations exhibiting positive sign epistasis. These mutations mapped to spatially distinct locations on AmiE near the initial mutation or proximal to the active site. Intriguingly, the majority of specific epistatic mutations were codon dependent, with different synonymous codons resulting in fitness sign reversals. Together, these results offer a nuanced view of how protein folding probability impacts local fitness landscapes and suggest that transcriptional-translational effects are as important as stability in determining evolutionary outcomes.

Recent insights into the genotype-phenotype relationship from massively parallel genetic assays

With the molecular revolution in Biology, a mechanistic understanding of the genotype-phenotype relationship became possible. Recently, advances in DNA synthesis and sequencing have enabled the development of deep mutational scanning assays, capable of scoring comprehensive libraries of genotypes for fitness and a variety of phenotypes in massively parallel fashion. The resulting empirical genotype-fitness maps pave the way to predictive models, potentially accelerating our ability to anticipate the behaviour of pathogen and cancerous cell populations from sequencing data. Besides from cellular fitness, phenotypes of direct application in industry (e.g. enzyme activity) and medicine (e.g. antibody binding) can be quantified and even selected directly by these assays. This review discusses the technological basis of and recent developments in massively parallel genetics, along with the trends it is uncovering in the genotype-phenotype relationship (distribution of mutation effects, epistasis), their possible mechanistic bases and future directions for advancing towards the goal of predictive genetics.

(In)exhaustible Suppliers for Evolution? Epistatic Selection Tunes the Adaptive Potential of Nongenetic Inheritance

Nongenetic inheritance media-from methyl-accepting cytosines to culture-tend to mutate more frequently than DNA sequences. Whether this makes them inexhaustible suppliers for adaptive evolution will depend on the effect of nongenetic mutations (hereafter, epimutations) on fitness-related traits. Here we investigate how these effects might themselves evolve, specifically whether natural selection may set boundaries to the adaptive potential of nongenetic inheritance media because of their higher mutability. In our model, the genetic and epigenetic contributions to a nonneutral phenotype are controlled by an epistatic modifier locus, which evolves under the combined effects of drift and selection. We show that a pure genetic control evolves when the environment is stable-provided that the population is large-such that the phenotype becomes robust to frequent epimutations. When the environment fluctuates, however, selection on the modifier locus also fluctuates and can overall produce a large nongenetic contribution to the phenotype, especially when the epimutation rate matches the rate of environmental variation. We further show that selection on the modifier locus is generally insensitive to recombination, meaning it is mostly direct, that is, not relying on subsequent effects in future generations. These results suggest that unstable inheritance media might significantly contribute to fitness variation of traits subject to highly variable selective pressures but little to traits responding to scarcely variable aspects of the environment. More generally, our study demonstrates that the rate of mutation and the adaptive potential of any inheritance media should not be seen as independent properties.

Changes in gene expression predictably shift and switch genetic interactions

Non-additive interactions between mutations occur extensively and also change across conditions, making genetic prediction a difficult challenge. To better understand the plasticity of genetic interactions (epistasis), we combine mutations in a single protein performing a single function (a transcriptional repressor inhibiting a target gene). Even in this minimal system, genetic interactions switch from positive (suppressive) to negative (enhancing) as the expression of the gene changes. These seemingly complicated changes can be predicted using a mathematical model that propagates the effects of mutations on protein folding to the cellular phenotype. More generally, changes in gene expression should be expected to alter the effects of mutations and how they interact whenever the relationship between expression and a phenotype is nonlinear, which is the case for most genes. These results have important implications for understanding genotype-phenotype maps and illustrate how changes in genetic interactions can often—but not always—be predicted by hierarchical mechanistic models.

Non-additive genetic interactions are plastic and can complicate genetic prediction. Here, using deep mutagenesis of the lambda repressor, Li et al. reveal that changes in gene expression can alter the strength and direction of genetic interactions between mutations in many genes and develop mathematical models for predicting them.

Weak Chemical Interactions That Drive Protein Evolution: Crowding, Sticking, and Quinary Structure in Folding and Function

In recent years, better instrumentation and greater computing power have enabled the imaging of elusive biomolecule dynamics in cells, driving many advances in understanding the chemical organization of biological systems. The focus of this Review is on interactions in the cell that affect both biomolecular stability and function and modulate them. The same protein or nucleic acid can behave differently depending on the time in the cell cycle, the location in a specific compartment, or the stresses acting on the cell. We describe in detail the crowding, sticking, and quinary structure in the cell and the current methods to quantify them both in vitro and in vivo. Finally, we discuss protein evolution in the cell in light of current biophysical evidence. We describe the factors that drive protein evolution and shape protein interaction networks. These interactions can significantly affect the free energy, ΔG, of marginally stable and low-population proteins and, due to epistasis, direct the evolutionary pathways in an organism. We finally conclude by providing an outlook on experiments to come and the possibility of collaborative evolutionary biology and biophysical efforts.

The Many Nuanced Evolutionary Consequences of Duplicated Genes

Gene duplication is seen as a major source of structural and functional divergence in genome evolution. Under the conventional models of sub or neofunctionalization, functional changes arise in one of the duplicates after duplication. However, we suggest here that the presence of a duplicated gene can result in functional changes to its interacting partners. We explore this hypothesis by in silico evolution of a heterodimer when one member of the interacting pair is duplicated. We examine how a range of selection pressures and protein structures leads to differential patterns of evolutionary divergence. We find that a surprising number of distinct evolutionary trajectories can be observed even in a simple three member system. Further, we observe that selection to correct dosage imbalance can affect the evolution of the initial function in several unexpected ways. For example, if a duplicate is under selective pressure to avoid binding its original binding partner, this can lead to changes in the binding interface of a nonduplicated interacting partner to exclude the duplicate. Hence, independent of the fate of the duplicate, its presence can impact how the original function operates. Additionally, we introduce a conceptual framework to describe how interacting partners cope with dosage imbalance after duplication. Contextualizing our results within this framework reveals that the evolutionary path taken by a duplicate's interacting partners is highly stochastic in nature. Consequently, the fate of duplicate genes may not only be controlled by their own ability to accumulate mutations but also by how interacting partners cope with them.

Evolution on the Biophysical Fitness Landscape of an RNA Virus

Viral evolutionary pathways are determined by the fitness landscape, which maps viral genotype to fitness. However, a quantitative description of the landscape and the evolutionary forces on it remain elusive. Here, we apply a biophysical fitness model based on capsid folding stability and antibody binding affinity to predict the evolutionary pathway of norovirus escaping a neutralizing antibody. The model is validated by experimental evolution in bulk culture and in a drop-based microfluidics that propagates millions of independent small viral subpopulations. We demonstrate that along the axis of binding affinity, selection for escape variants and drift due to random mutations have the same direction, an atypical case in evolution. However, along folding stability, selection and drift are opposing forces whose balance is tuned by viral population size. Our results demonstrate that predictable epistatic tradeoffs between molecular traits of viral proteins shape viral evolution.

Survival of the simplest in microbial evolution

The evolution of microbial and viral organisms often generates clonal interference, a mode of competition between genetic clades within a population. Here we show how interference impacts systems biology by constraining genetic and phenotypic complexity. Our analysis uses biophysically grounded evolutionary models for molecular phenotypes, such as fold stability and enzymatic activity of genes. We find a generic mode of phenotypic interference that couples the function of individual genes and the population’s global evolutionary dynamics. Biological implications of phenotypic interference include rapid collateral system degradation in adaptation experiments and long-term selection against genome complexity: each additional gene carries a cost proportional to the total number of genes. Recombination above a threshold rate can eliminate this cost, which establishes a universal, biophysically grounded scenario for the evolution of sex. In a broader context, our analysis suggests that the systems biology of microbes is strongly intertwined with their mode of evolution.

In asexual populations selection at different genomic loci can interfere with each other. Here, using a biophysical model of molecular evolution the authors show that interference results in long-term degradation of molecular function, an effect that strongly depends on genome size.