Random fluctuation of selection coefficients and the extent of nucleotide variation in human populations

Models of Fluctuating Selection Between Generations: A Solution for the Theoretical Inconsistency

The theory of selection fluctuation between generations has been a topic with much activities in population genetics and molecular evolution in 1970's. Most studies suggested that, as the result of fluctuating selection between generations, the frequency of an (on average) neutral mutation may fluctuate around 0.5 during the long-term evolution before it was ultimately fixed or lost. However, this pattern can only be derived from a specific type Wright-Fisher additive model, coined by the Nei-Yokoyama puzzle. In this commentary, I revisited this issue and figured out a theoretical assumption that has never been claimed explicitly, the notion of reference phenotype. Consider one locus with two-alleles: A is the wildtype allele and A' is the mutation. The fluctuating selection model actually requires a constraint that one of three genotypes (AA, AA', or A'A') must maintain a constant fitness without fluctuating between generations. It appears that the balancing selection at a frequency of 0.5 emerges only when the heterozygote (AA') is the reference genotype. Because it is difficult to determine which genotype could be the reference genotype in a real population, a desirable population genetics model should take all three possibilities into account. To this end, I propose a mixture model, where each genotype has a certain chance to be the reference genotype. My analysis showed that the emergence of balancing selection depends on the relative proportions of three different reference genotypes.

Predicting population genetic change in an autocorrelated random environment: Insights from a large automated experiment

Most natural environments exhibit a substantial component of random variation, with a degree of temporal autocorrelation that defines the color of environmental noise. Such environmental fluctuations cause random fluctuations in natural selection, affecting the predictability of evolution. But despite long-standing theoretical interest in population genetics in stochastic environments, there is a dearth of empirical estimation of underlying parameters of this theory. More importantly, it is still an open question whether evolution in fluctuating environments can be predicted indirectly using simpler measures, which combine environmental time series with population estimates in constant environments. Here we address these questions by using an automated experimental evolution approach. We used a liquid-handling robot to expose over a hundred lines of the micro-alga Dunaliella salina to randomly fluctuating salinity over a continuous range, with controlled mean, variance, and autocorrelation. We then tracked the frequencies of two competing strains through amplicon sequencing of nuclear and choloroplastic barcode sequences. We show that the magnitude of environmental fluctuations (determined by their variance), but also their predictability (determined by their autocorrelation), had large impacts on the average selection coefficient. The variance in frequency change, which quantifies randomness in population genetics, was substantially higher in a fluctuating environment. The reaction norm of selection coefficients against constant salinity yielded accurate predictions for the mean selection coefficient in a fluctuating environment. This selection reaction norm was in turn well predicted by environmental tolerance curves, with population growth rate against salinity. However, both the selection reaction norm and tolerance curves underestimated the variance in selection caused by random environmental fluctuations. Overall, our results provide exceptional insights into the prospects for understanding and predicting genetic evolution in randomly fluctuating environments.

Being able to predict evolution under natural selection is important for many applied fields of biology, ranging from agriculture to medicine or conservation. However, this endeavor is complicated by factors that inherently limit our ability to predict the future, such as random fluctuations in the environment. Population genetic theory indicates that probabilistic predictions can still be made in this context, but the extent to which this holds empirically, and whether these predictions can be based on simple measurements, are still open questions. Making progress on answering these questions can be achieved by capitalizing on experiments where the environment is precisely controlled over many generations. Here, we used a pipetting robot to generate random time series of salinities with controlled patterns of fluctuations, which we imposed on a microalga, Dunaliella salina. Tracking the frequencies of two genotypes in a mixture by sequencing two short barcode sequences, we were able to show how patterns of fluctuating selection relate to the fluctuating environment. Interestingly, parts of these responses, but not all, could be predicted by simpler measurements in constant environments, allowing precise characterization the limits and prospects for predicting evolution in fluctuating environments.

Selective Sweep at a QTL in a Randomly Fluctuating Environment

Adaptation is mediated by phenotypic traits that are often near continuous, and undergo selective pressures that may change with the environment. The dynamics of allelic frequencies at underlying quantitative trait loci (QTL) depend on their own phenotypic effects, but also possibly on other polymorphic loci affecting the same trait, and on environmental change driving phenotypic selection. Most environments include a substantial component of random noise, characterized both by its magnitude and its temporal autocorrelation, which sets the timescale of environmental predictability. I investigate the dynamics of a mutation affecting a quantitative trait in an autocorrelated stochastic environment that causes random fluctuations of an optimum phenotype. The trait under selection may also exhibit background polygenic variance caused by many polymorphic loci of small effects elsewhere in the genome. In addition, the mutation at the QTL may affect phenotypic plasticity, the phenotypic response of given genotype to its environment of development or expression. Stochastic environmental fluctuations increase the variance of the evolutionary process, with consequences for the probability of a complete sweep at the QTL. Background polygenic variation critically alters this process, by setting an upper limit to stochastic variance of population genetics at the QTL. For a plasticity QTL, stochastic fluctuations also influences the expected selection coefficient, and alleles with the same expected trajectory can have very different stochastic variances. Finally, a mutation may be favored through its effect on plasticity despite causing a systematic mismatch with optimum, which is compensated by evolution of the mean background phenotype.

Balancing Selection Drives the Maintenance of Genetic Variation in Drosophila Antimicrobial Peptides

Genes involved in immune defense against pathogens provide some of the most well-known examples of both directional and balancing selection. Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) are innate immune effector genes, playing a key role in pathogen clearance in many species, including Drosophila. Conflicting lines of evidence have suggested that AMPs may be under directional, balancing, or purifying selection. Here, we use both a linear model and control-gene-based approach to show that balancing selection is an important force shaping AMP diversity in Drosophila. In Drosophila melanogaster, this is most clearly observed in ancestral African populations. Furthermore, the signature of balancing selection is even more striking once background selection has been accounted for. Balancing selection also acts on AMPs in Drosophila mauritiana, an isolated island endemic separated from D. melanogaster by about 4 Myr of evolution. This suggests that balancing selection may be broadly acting to maintain adaptive diversity in Drosophila AMPs, as has been found in other taxa.

Antiviral drug resistance as an adaptive process

Antiviral drug resistance is a matter of great clinical importance that, historically, has been investigated mostly from a virological perspective. Although the proximate mechanisms of resistance can be readily uncovered using these methods, larger evolutionary trends often remain elusive. Recent interest by population geneticists in studies of antiviral resistance has spurred new metrics for evaluating mutation and recombination rates, demographic histories of transmission and compartmentalization, and selective forces incurred during viral adaptation to antiviral drug treatment. We present up-to-date summaries on antiviral resistance for a range of drugs and viral types, and review recent advances for studying their evolutionary histories. We conclude that information imparted by demographic and selective histories, as revealed through population genomic inference, is integral to assessing the evolution of antiviral resistance as it pertains to human health.

Signatures of natural selection on genetic variants affecting complex human traits

It has recently been hypothesized that polygenic adaptation, resulting in modest allele frequency changes at many loci, could be a major mechanism behind the adaptation of complex phenotypes in human populations. Here we leverage the large number of variants that have been identified through genome-wide association (GWA) studies to comprehensively study signatures of natural selection on genetic variants associated with complex traits. Using population differentiation based methods, such as FST and phylogenetic branch length analyses, we systematically examined nearly 1300 SNPs associated with 38 complex phenotypes. Instead of detecting selection signatures at individual variants, we aimed to identify combined evidence of natural selection by aggregating signals across many trait associated SNPs. Our results have revealed some general features of polygenic selection on complex traits associated variants. First, natural selection acting on standing variants associated with complex traits is a common phenomenon. Second, characteristics of selection for different polygenic traits vary both temporarily and geographically. Third, some studied traits (e.g. height and urate level) could have been the primary targets of selection, as indicated by the significant correlation between the effect sizes and the estimated strength of selection in the trait associated variants; however, for most traits, the allele frequency changes in trait associated variants might have been driven by the selection on other correlated phenotypes. Fourth, the changes in allele frequencies as a result of selection can be highly stochastic, such that, polygenic adaptation may accelerate differentiation in allele frequencies among populations, but generally does not produce predictable directional changes. Fifth, multiple mechanisms (pleiotropy, hitchhiking, etc) may act together to govern the changes in allele frequencies of genetic variants associated with complex traits.