Stratospheric water vapor feedback

Stratospheric water vapor affecting atmospheric circulation

Water vapor plays an important role in many aspects of the climate system, by affecting radiation, cloud formation, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. Even the low stratospheric water vapor content provides an important climate feedback, but current climate models show a substantial moist bias in the lowermost stratosphere. Here we report crucial sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere to the abundance of water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere. We show from a mechanistic climate model experiment and inter-model variability that lowermost stratospheric water vapor decreases local temperatures, and thereby causes an upward and poleward shift of subtropical jets, a strengthening of the stratospheric circulation, a poleward shift of the tropospheric eddy-driven jet and regional climate impacts. The mechanistic model experiment in combination with atmospheric observations further shows that the prevailing moist bias in current models is likely caused by the transport scheme, and can be alleviated by employing a less diffusive Lagrangian scheme. The related effects on atmospheric circulation are of similar magnitude as climate change effects. Hence, lowermost stratospheric water vapor exerts a first order effect on atmospheric circulation and improving its representation in models offers promising prospects for future research.

Response of stratospheric water vapour to warming constrained by satellite observations

Future increases in stratospheric water vapour risk amplifying climate change and slowing down the recovery of the ozone layer. However, state-of-the-art climate models strongly disagree on the magnitude of these increases under global warming. Uncertainty primarily arises from the complex processes leading to dehydration of air during its tropical ascent into the stratosphere. Here we derive an observational constraint on this longstanding uncertainty. We use a statistical-learning approach to infer historical co-variations between the atmospheric temperature structure and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour concentrations. For climate models, we demonstrate that these historically constrained relationships are highly predictive of the water vapour response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. We obtain an observationally constrained range for stratospheric water vapour changes per degree of global warming of 0.31 ± 0.39 ppmv K-1. Across 61 climate models, we find that a large fraction of future model projections are inconsistent with observational evidence. In particular, frequently projected strong increases (>1 ppmv K-1) are highly unlikely. Our constraint represents a 50% decrease in the 95th percentile of the climate model uncertainty distribution, which has implications for surface warming, ozone recovery and the tropospheric circulation response under climate change.

Accelerated aging of unencapsulated flexible GaInP/GaAs/InGaAs solar cells by means of damp heat and thermal cycling tests

The extended damp heat and thermal cycling tests were performed on unencapsulated flexible thin-film GaInP/GaAs/InGaAs solar cells to assess the long-term stability. The solar cells were subjected to 85 °C/85% damp heat test for more than 1000 h and 420 cycles of thermal cycling test between -60 °C and 75 °C, respectively. The performance attenuations of flexible solar cells were less than 2% in both cases, which were due to the slow decline of the open-circuit voltage with aging time. The slight decrease in open voltage was attributed to the increase in reverse saturation current due to the enhanced recombination, which was in good agreement with the calculation based on the two-diode model. The good performance of the unencapsulated flexible GaInP/GaAs/InGaAs solar cells in severe environment indicated the stable and reliable device fabrication art in the experiment.

Investigating climate tipping points under various emission reduction and carbon capture scenarios with a stochastic climate model

We study the mitigation of climate tipping point transitions using an energy balance model. The evolution of the global mean surface temperature is coupled with the CO 2 concentration through the green-house effect. We model the CO 2 concentration with a stochastic delay differential equation (SDDE), accounting for various carbon emission and capture scenarios. The resulting coupled system of SDDEs exhibits a tipping point phenomena: if CO 2 concentration exceeds a critical threshold (around 478   ppm ), the temperature experiences an abrupt increase of about six degrees Celsius. We show that the CO 2 concentration exhibits a transient growth which may cause a climate tipping point, even if the concentration decays asymptotically. We derive a rigorous upper bound for the CO 2 evolution which quantifies its transient and asymptotic growths, and provides sufficient conditions for evading the climate tipping point. Combining this upper bound with Monte Carlo simulations of the stochastic climate model, we investigate the emission reduction and carbon capture scenarios that would avert the tipping point.

Hydraulic jump dynamics above supercell thunderstorms

[Figure: see text].

Extreme Outliers in Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Over North America Observed by MLS: Relation to Overshooting Convection Diagnosed From Colocated Aqua-MODIS Data

Convectively injected water vapor (H2O) in the North American (NA) summer lowermost stratosphere results in significant outliers in the 100-hPa H2O measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). MLS statistics from 15 years confirm that the NA region contains over 60% of global 100-hPa H2O > 12 ppmv, despite having only ∼1.8% of all MLS observations. A profile sampled in August 2019 stands out, withH 2 O = 26 . 3  ppmv, far exceeding the prior record and the median ∼4.5-ppmv abundance in NA. This particular outlier is associated with a large overshooting convective event (OCE) that spanned multiple U.S. states and persisted for several hours. Colocation of the MLS data over NA with cloud observations from Aqua's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reveals the unique character of this case, as only 2.3% of MLS profiles are as close to an OCE and only 0.024% of OCEs cover as large an area within a 500-km perimeter of a profile.

An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

Water Vapour and Temperature Measurements by Raman Lidar in the Frame of the NDACC

In November 2012, the University of BASILicata Raman Lidar system (BASIL) was approved to enter the International Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). Since then measurements were routinely carried out on a once per week basis. This paper illustrates specific measurement examples from this effort, with a dedicated focus on temperature and water vapour measurements, with the ultimate goal to provide a characterization of the system performance. Case studies illustrated in this paper demonstrate the ability of BASIL to perform measurements of the temperature profile up to 50 km and of the water vapour mixing ratio profile up to 15 km, based on an integration time of 2 hours and a vertical resolution of 150 m, with measurement bias not exceeding 0.1 K and 0.1 g kg−1, respectively. Raman lidar measurements are compared with measurements from additional instruments, such as radiosondings and satellite sensors (IASI and AIRS), and with model re-analyses data (ECMWF and ECMWF-ERA). Comparisons in this paper cover the altitude interval up to 15 km for water vapour mixing ratio and up to 50 km for the temperature. Comparisons between BASIL and the different sensor/model data in terms of water vapour mixing ratio indicate a mean absolute/relative bias of -0.024 g kg−1(or -3.9 %), 0.342 g kg−1(or 36.8 %), 0.346 g kg−1 (or 37.5 %), -0.297 g kg−1 (or -25 %), -0.381 g kg−1 (or -31 %), when compared with radisondings, AIRS, IASI, ECMWF, ECMWF-ERA, respectively. For what concerns the comparisons in terms of temperature measurements, these indicate a mean absolute bias between BASIL and the radisondings, AIRS, IASI, ECMWF, ECMWF-ERA of -0.04, 1.99, 0.48, 0.14, 0.62 K, respectively. Based on the available dataset and benefiting from the circumstance that the Raman lidar BASIL could be compared with all other sensor/model data, it has been possible to estimate the absolute bias of all sensors/datasets, this being 0.004 g kg−1/0.30 K, 0.021 g kg−1/-0.34 K, -0.35 g kg−1/0.18 K, -0.346 g kg−1/-1.63 K, 0.293 g kg−1/-0.16 K and 0.377 g kg−1/0.32 K in terms of water vapour mixing ratio/temperature for BASIL, the radisondings, IASI, AIRS, ECMWF, ECMWF-ERA, respectively.

Using OCO-2 Satellite Data for Investigating the Variability of Atmospheric CO2 Concentration in Relationship with Precipitation, Relative Humidity, and Vegetation over Oman

Recognition of the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration variations over time is critical for tracing the future changes in climate both globally and regionally. In this study, a time series analysis of atmospheric CO2 concentration and its relationship with precipitation, relative humidity (RH), and vegetation is investigated over Oman. The daily XCO2 data from OCO-2 satellite was obtained from September 2014 to March 2019. The daily RH and precipitation data were also collected from the ground weather stations, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index was obtained from MODIS. Oman was studied in four distinct regions where the main emphasis was on the Monsoon Region in the far south. The CO2 concentration time series indicated a significant upward trend over different regions for the study period, with annual cycles being the same for all regions except the Monsoon Region. This is indicative of RH, precipitation, and consequently vegetation cover impact on atmospheric CO2 concentration, resulting in an overall lower annual growth in the Monsoon Region. Simple and multiple correlation analyses of CO2 concentration with mentioned parameters were performed in zero to three-month lags over Oman. They showed high correlations mainly during the rainfall period in the Monsoon Region.

Water Vapor, Clouds, and Saturation in the Tropical Tropopause Layer

The goal of this investigation is to understand the mechanism behind the observed high relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) in the tropical region between ~14 km (150 hPa) and the tropopause, often referred to as the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). As shown by satellite, aircraft and balloon observations, high (>80%) RHi regions are widespread within the TTL. Regions with the highest RHi are co-located with extensive cirrus. During boreal winter, the TTL RHi is highest over the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) with a weaker maximum over South America and Africa. In the winter, TTL temperatures are coldest and upward motion is the greatest in the TWP. It is this upward motion, driving humid air into the colder upper troposphere that produces the persistent high RHi and cirrus formation. Back trajectory calculations show that comparable adiabatic and diabatic processes contribute to this upward motion. We construct a bulk model of TWP TTL water vapor transport that includes cloud nucleation and ice microphysics that quantifies how upward motion drives the persistent high RHi in the TTL region. We find that atmospheric waves triggering cloud formation regulate the RHi, and that convection dehydrates the TTL. Our forward domain-filling trajectory (FDF) model is used to more precisely simulate the TTL spatial and vertical distribution of RHi. The observed RHi distribution is reproduced by the model and we show that convection increases RHi below the base of the TTL with little impact on the RHi in the TTL region.

The Impact of Cloud Radiative Effects on the Tropical Tropopause Layer Temperatures

A single-column radiative-convective model (RCM) is a useful tool to investigate the physical processes that determine the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) temperature structures. Previous studies on the TTL using the RCMs, however, omitted the cloud radiative effects. In this study, we examine the impact of cloud radiative effects on the simulated TTL temperatures using an RCM. We derive the cloud radiative effects based on satellite observations, which show heating rates in the troposphere but cooling rates in the stratosphere. We find that the cloud radiative effect warms the TTL by as much as 2 K but cools the lower stratosphere by as much as −1.5 K, resulting in a thicker TTL. With (without) considering cloud radiative effects, we obtain a convection top of ≈167 hPa (≈150 hPa) with a temperature of ≈213 K (≈209 K), and a cold point at ≈87 hPa (≈94 hPa) with a temperature of ≈204 K (≈204 K). Therefore, the cloud radiative effects widen the TTL by both lowering the convection-top height and enhancing the cold-point height. We also examine the impact of TTL cirrus radiative effects on the RCM-simulated temperatures. We find that the TTL cirrus warms the TTL with a maximum temperature increase of ≈1.3 K near 110 hPa.

Nonlinear response of tropical lower stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large scale Brewer Dobson Circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor from the late 1990s to the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than two consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

Origin, Maintenance and Variability of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL): The Roles of Monsoon Dynamics

Using NASA MERRA2 daily data, we investigated the origin, maintenance and variability of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) in relation to variations of the Asia Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA) during the summer of 2008. During May-June, abundant quantities of carbon monoxide (CO), carbonaceous aerosols (CA) and dusts are found in the mid- and upper troposphere over India and China, arising from enhanced biomass burning emissions, as well as westerly transport from the Middle East deserts. During July-August, large quantities of dusts transported from the deserts are trapped and accumulate over the southern and eastern foothills of the Tibetan Plateau. Despite strong precipitation washout, ambient CO, CA and dust are lofted by orographically forced deep convection to great elevations, 12-16 km above sea level, via two key pathways over heavily polluted regions: a) the Himalayas-Gangetic Plain, and b) the Sichuan Basin. Upon entering the upper-troposphere-lower-stratosphere, the pollutants are capped by a stable layer near the tropopause, advected and dispersed by the anticyclonic circulation of AMA, forming the ATAL resembling a planetary-scale "double-stem chimney cloud". The development and variability of the ATAL are strongly linked to the seasonal march and intraseasonal (20-30 days and higher frequency) oscillations of the Asian monsoon.

Reconciling controversies about the 'global warming hiatus'

Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the 'global warming hiatus', caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of 'hiatus' and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

The strength of the meridional overturning circulation of the stratosphere

The distribution of gases such as ozone and water vapour in the stratosphere - which affect surface climate - is influenced by the meridional overturning of mass in the stratosphere, the Brewer-Dobson circulation. However, observation-based estimates of its global strength are difficult to obtain. Here we present two calculations of the mean strength of the meridional overturning of the stratosphere. We analyze satellite data that document the global diabatic circulation between 2007- 2011, and compare these to three re-analysis data sets and to simulations with a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model. Using measurements of sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) and nitrous oxide, we calculate the global mean diabatic overturning mass flux throughout the stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere, these two estimates agree, and at a potential temperature level of 460 K (about 20 km or 60 hPa in tropics), the global circulation strength is 6.3-7.6 × 10⁹ kg/s. Higher in the atmosphere, only the SF₆-based estimate is available, and it diverges from the re-analysis data and simulations. Interpretation of the SF₆ data-based estimate is limited because of a mesospheric sink of SF₆; however, the reanalyses also differ substantially from each other. We conclude that the uncertainty in the mean meridional overturning circulation strength at upper levels of the stratosphere amounts to at least 100 %.

Modeling pN2 through Geological Time: Implications for Planetary Climates and Atmospheric Biosignatures

Nitrogen is a major nutrient for all life on Earth and could plausibly play a similar role in extraterrestrial biospheres. The major reservoir of nitrogen at Earth's surface is atmospheric N₂, but recent studies have proposed that the size of this reservoir may have fluctuated significantly over the course of Earth's history with particularly low levels in the Neoarchean-presumably as a result of biological activity. We used a biogeochemical box model to test which conditions are necessary to cause large swings in atmospheric N₂ pressure. Parameters for our model are constrained by observations of modern Earth and reconstructions of biomass burial and oxidative weathering in deep time. A 1-D climate model was used to model potential effects on atmospheric climate. In a second set of tests, we perturbed our box model to investigate which parameters have the greatest impact on the evolution of atmospheric pN₂ and consider possible implications for nitrogen cycling on other planets. Our results suggest that (a) a high rate of biomass burial would have been needed in the Archean to draw down atmospheric pN₂ to less than half modern levels, (b) the resulting effect on temperature could probably have been compensated by increasing solar luminosity and a mild increase in pCO₂, and (c) atmospheric oxygenation could have initiated a stepwise pN₂ rebound through oxidative weathering. In general, life appears to be necessary for significant atmospheric pN₂ swings on Earth-like planets. Our results further support the idea that an exoplanetary atmosphere rich in both N₂ and O₂ is a signature of an oxygen-producing biosphere. Key Words: Biosignatures-Early Earth-Planetary atmospheres. Astrobiology 16, 949-963.

Decadal variability of tropical tropopause temperature and its relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Tropopause temperatures (TPTs) control the amount of stratospheric water vapour, which influences chemistry, radiation and circulation in the stratosphere, and is also an important driver of surface climate. Decadal variability and long-term trends in tropical TPTs as well as stratospheric water vapour are largely unknown. Here, we present for the first time evidence, from reanalysis and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, of a link between decadal variability in tropical TPTs and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The negative phase of the PDO is associated with anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical east and central Pacific, which enhance the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. The latter drives a stronger Walker Circulation and a weaker Hadley Circulation, which leads to less convection and subsequently a warmer tropopause over the central equatorial Pacific. Over the North Pacific, positive sea level pressure anomalies occur, which damp vertical wave propagation into the stratosphere. This in turn slows the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and hence warms the tropical tropopause, enabling more water vapour to enter the stratosphere. The reverse chain of events holds for the positive phase of the PDO. Such ocean-troposphere-stratosphere interactions may provide an important feedback on the Earth’s global surface temperature.

Impacts of Polar Changes on the UV-induced Mineralization of Terrigenous Dissolved Organic Matter

Local climates in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere are influenced by Arctic Amplification and by interactions of the Antarctic ozone hole with climate change, respectively. Polar changes may affect hydroclimatic conditions in temperate regions, for example, by increasing the length and intensity of precipitation events at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Additionally, global warming has led to the thawing of ancient permafrost soils, particularly in Arctic regions, due to Arctic Amplification. Both heavy precipitation events and thawing of permafrost are increasing the net transfer of terrestrially derived dissolved organic matter (DOM) from land to surface waters. In aquatic ecosystems, UV-induced oxidation of terrigenous DOM (tDOM) produces atmospheric CO2 and this process is one of several mechanisms by which natural organic matter in aquatic and soil environments may play an important role in climate feedbacks. The Arctic is particularly affected by these processes: for example, melting of Arctic sea ice allows solar UV radiation to penetrate into the ice-free Arctic Ocean and to cause photochemical reactions that result in bleaching and mineralization of tDOM. Open questions, in addition to those shown in the Graphical Abstract, remain regarding the resulting contributions of tDOM photomineralization to CO2 production and global warming.

Transport of ice into the stratosphere and the humidification of the stratosphere over the 21st century

Climate models predict that tropical lower-stratospheric humidity will increase as the climate warms. We examine this trend in two state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models. Under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the stratospheric entry value of water vapor increases by ~1 part per million by volume (ppmv) over this century in both models. We show with trajectory runs driven by model meteorological fields that the warming tropical tropopause layer (TTL) explains 50-80% of this increase. The remainder is a consequence of trends in evaporation of ice convectively lofted into the TTL and lower stratosphere. Our results further show that, within the models we examined, ice lofting is primarily important on long time scales - on interannual time scales, TTL temperature variations explain most of the variations in lower stratospheric humidity. Assessing the ability of models to realistically represent ice-lofting processes should be a high priority in the modeling community.

The need for accurate long-term measurements of water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere with global coverage

Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere although changes in carbon dioxide constitute the "control knob" for surface temperatures. While the latter fact is well recognized, resulting in extensive space-borne and ground-based measurement programs for carbon dioxide as detailed in the studies by Keeling et al. (1996), Kuze et al. (2009), and Liu et al. (2014), the need for an accurate characterization of the long-term changes in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric (UTLS) water vapor has not yet resulted in sufficiently extensive long-term international measurement programs (although first steps have been taken). Here, we argue for the implementation of a long-term balloon-borne measurement program for UTLS water vapor covering the entire globe that will likely have to be sustained for hundreds of years.

Stratospheric controlled perturbation experiment: a small-scale experiment to improve understanding of the risks of solar geoengineering

Although solar radiation management (SRM) through stratospheric aerosol methods has the potential to mitigate impacts of climate change, our current knowledge of stratospheric processes suggests that these methods may entail significant risks. In addition to the risks associated with current knowledge, the possibility of 'unknown unknowns' exists that could significantly alter the risk assessment relative to our current understanding. While laboratory experimentation can improve the current state of knowledge and atmospheric models can assess large-scale climate response, they cannot capture possible unknown chemistry or represent the full range of interactive atmospheric chemical physics. Small-scale, in situ experimentation under well-regulated circumstances can begin to remove some of these uncertainties. This experiment-provisionally titled the stratospheric controlled perturbation experiment-is under development and will only proceed with transparent and predominantly governmental funding and independent risk assessment. We describe the scientific and technical foundation for performing, under external oversight, small-scale experiments to quantify the risks posed by SRM to activation of halogen species and subsequent erosion of stratospheric ozone. The paper's scope includes selection of the measurement platform, relevant aspects of stratospheric meteorology, operational considerations and instrument design and engineering.