Stewardship of global collective behavior

Temporal dynamics of coordinated online behavior: Stability, archetypes, and influence

Large-scale online campaigns, malicious or otherwise, require a significant degree of coordination among participants, which sparked interest in the study of coordinated online behavior. State-of-the-art methods for detecting coordinated behavior perform static analyses, disregarding the temporal dynamics of coordination. Here, we carry out a dynamic analysis of coordinated behavior. To reach our goal, we build a multiplex temporal network and we perform dynamic community detection to identify groups of users that exhibited coordinated behaviors in time. We find that i) coordinated communities (CCs) feature variable degrees of temporal instability; ii) dynamic analyses are needed to account for such instability, and results of static analyses can be unreliable and scarcely representative of unstable communities; iii) some users exhibit distinct archetypal behaviors that have important practical implications; iv) content and network characteristics contribute to explaining why users leave and join CCs. Our results demonstrate the advantages of dynamic analyses and open up new directions of research on the unfolding of online debates, on the strategies of CCs, and on the patterns of online influence.

Noise and opinion dynamics: how ambiguity promotes pro-majority consensus in the presence of confirmation bias

Opinion dynamics are affected by cognitive biases and noise. While mathematical models have focused extensively on biases, we still know surprisingly little about how noise shapes opinion patterns. Here, we use an agent-based opinion dynamics model to investigate the interplay between confirmation bias-represented as bounded confidence-and different types of noise. After analysing where noise can enter social interaction, we propose a type of noise that has not been discussed so far, ambiguity noise. While previously considered types of noise acted on agents either before, after or independent of social interaction, ambiguity noise acts on communicated messages, assuming that socially transmitted opinions are inherently noisy. We find that noise can induce agreement when confirmation bias is moderate, but different types of noise require quite different conditions for this effect to occur. An application of our model to the climate change debate shows that at just the right mix of confirmation bias and ambiguity noise, opinions tend to converge to high levels of climate change concern. This result is not observed with the other types. Our findings highlight the importance of considering and distinguishing between the various types of noise and the unique role of ambiguity in opinion formation.

Is society caught up in a Death Spiral? Modeling societal demise and its reversal

Just like an army of ants caught in an ant mill, individuals, groups and even whole societies are sometimes caught up in a Death Spiral, a vicious cycle of self-reinforcing dysfunctional behavior characterized by continuous flawed decision making, myopic single-minded focus on one (set of) solution(s), denial, distrust, micromanagement, dogmatic thinking and learned helplessness. We propose the term Death Spiral Effect to describe this difficult-to-break downward spiral of societal decline. Specifically, in the current theory-building review we aim to: (a) more clearly define and describe the Death Spiral Effect; (b) model the downward spiral of societal decline as well as an upward spiral; (c) describe how and why individuals, groups and even society at large might be caught up in a Death Spiral; and (d) offer a positive way forward in terms of evidence-based solutions to escape the Death Spiral Effect. Management theory hints on the occurrence of this phenomenon and offers turn-around leadership as solution. On a societal level strengthening of democracy may be important. Prior research indicates that historically, two key factors trigger this type of societal decline: rising inequalities creating an upper layer of elites and a lower layer of masses; and dwindling (access to) resources. Historical key markers of societal decline are a steep increase in inequalities, government overreach, over-integration (interdependencies in networks) and a rapidly decreasing trust in institutions and resulting collapse of legitimacy. Important issues that we aim to shed light on are the behavioral underpinnings of decline, as well as the question if and how societal decline can be reversed. We explore the extension of these theories from the company/organization level to the society level, and make use of insights from both micro-, meso-, and macro-level theories (e.g., Complex Adaptive Systems and collapsology, the study of the risks of collapse of industrial civilization) to explain this process of societal demise. Our review furthermore draws on theories such as Social Safety Theory, Conservation of Resources Theory, and management theories that describe the decline and fall of groups, companies and societies, as well as offer ways to reverse this trend.

The distorting effects of producer strategies: Why engagement does not reveal consumer preferences for misinformation

A great deal of empirical research has examined who falls for misinformation and why. Here, we introduce a formal game-theoretic model of engagement with news stories that captures the strategic interplay between (mis)information consumers and producers. A key insight from the model is that observed patterns of engagement do not necessarily reflect the preferences of consumers. This is because producers seeking to promote misinformation can use strategies that lead moderately inattentive readers to engage more with false stories than true ones-even when readers prefer more accurate over less accurate information. We then empirically test people's preferences for accuracy in the news. In three studies, we find that people strongly prefer to click and share news they perceive as more accurate-both in a general population sample, and in a sample of users recruited through Twitter who had actually shared links to misinformation sites online. Despite this preference for accurate news-and consistent with the predictions of our model-we find markedly different engagement patterns for articles from misinformation versus mainstream news sites. Using 1,000 headlines from 20 misinformation and 20 mainstream news sites, we compare Facebook engagement data with 20,000 accuracy ratings collected in a survey experiment. Engagement with a headline is negatively correlated with perceived accuracy for misinformation sites, but positively correlated with perceived accuracy for mainstream sites. Taken together, these theoretical and empirical results suggest that consumer preferences cannot be straightforwardly inferred from empirical patterns of engagement.

Polarization and the Psychology of Collectives

Achieving global sustainability in the face of climate change, pandemics, and other global systemic threats will require collective intelligence and collective action beyond what we are currently experiencing. Increasing polarization within nations and populist trends that undercut international cooperation make the problem even harder. Allegiance within groups is often strengthened because of conflict among groups, leading to a form of polarization termed "affective." Hope for addressing these global problems will require recognition of the commonality in threats facing all groups collective intelligence that integrates relevant inputs from all sources but fights misinformation and coordinated, cooperative collective action. Elinor Ostrom's notion of polycentric governance, involving centers of decision-making from the local to the global in a complex interacting framework, may provide a possible pathway to achieve these goals.

The Strengths and Weaknesses of Crowds to Address Global Problems

Global climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the spread of misinformation on social media are just a handful of highly consequential problems affecting society. We argue that the rough contours of many societal problems can be framed within a "wisdom of crowds" perspective. Such a framing allows researchers to recast complex problems within a simple conceptual framework and leverage known results on crowd wisdom. To this end, we present a simple "toy" model of the strengths and weaknesses of crowd wisdom that easily maps to many societal problems. Our model treats the judgments of individuals as random draws from a distribution intended to represent a heterogeneous population. We use a weighted mean of these individuals to represent the crowd's collective judgment. Using this setup, we show that subgroups have the potential to produce substantively different judgments and we investigate their effect on a crowd's ability to generate accurate judgments about societal problems. We argue that future work on societal problems can benefit from more sophisticated, domain-specific theory and models based on the wisdom of crowds.

Implicit racial biases are lower in more populous more diverse and less segregated US cities

Implicit biases - differential attitudes towards members of distinct groups - are pervasive in human societies and create inequities across many aspects of life. Recent research has revealed that implicit biases are generally driven by social contexts, but not whether they are systematically influenced by the ways that humans self-organize in cities. We leverage complex system modeling in the framework of urban scaling theory to predict differences in these biases between cities. Our model links spatial scales from city-wide infrastructure to individual psychology to predict that cities that are more populous, more diverse, and less segregated are less biased. We find empirical support for these predictions in U.S. cities with Implicit Association Test data spanning a decade from 2.7 million individuals and U.S. Census demographic data. Additionally, we find that changes in cities' social environments precede changes in implicit biases at short time-scales, but this relationship is bi-directional at longer time-scales. We conclude that the social organization of cities may influence the strength of these biases.

Learning interpretable collective variables for spreading processes on networks

Collective variables (CVs) are low-dimensional projections of high-dimensional system states. They are used to gain insights into complex emergent dynamical behaviors of processes on networks. The relation between CVs and network measures is not well understood and its derivation typically requires detailed knowledge of both the dynamical system and the network topology. In this Letter, we present a data-driven method for algorithmically learning and understanding CVs for binary-state spreading processes on networks of arbitrary topology. We demonstrate our method using four example networks: the stochastic block model, a ring-shaped graph, a random regular graph, and a scale-free network generated by the Albert-Barabási model. Our results deliver evidence for the existence of low-dimensional CVs even in cases that are not yet understood theoretically.

A primer on open-source, experimental social media simulation software: Opportunities for misinformation research and beyond

Social media simulation software (SMSS) allows researchers to collect behavioural data on how participants to engage with researcher-specified social media content using natural, interactive social media user interfaces. A notable subset of SMSS allow for experimental observation of how people engage with different types of content or user interfaces. Providing an avenue for collecting causal evidence on how algorithmic recommendation systems and design affordances of social media platforms impact behaviour; particularly online harms like misinformation. This article reviews key similarities and differences between three notable SMSS (The (Mis)information Game, the Mock Social Media Website Tool, and the Truman Platform), provides recommendations for use, and perspectives on the future of SMSS.

The importance of epistemology for the study of misinformation

Scholars have rapidly produced a robust body of literature addressing the public's beliefs in, and interactions with "misinformation." Despite the literature's stated concerns about the underlying truth value of the information and beliefs in question, the field has thus far operated without a reliable epistemology for determining the truth of the information and beliefs in question, often leaving researchers (or third parties) to make such determinations based on loose definitions and a naïve epistemology. We argue that, while this area of research has made great strides in recent years, more attention to definitions, epistemology, and terminology would both improve the validity of the literature and prevent the field of misinformation studies from becoming political conflict by another name.

Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis

How did human societies evolve to become a major force of global change? What dynamics can lead societies on a trajectory of global sustainability? The astonishing growth in human population, economic activity and environmental impact has brought these questions to the fore. This theme issue pulls together a variety of traditions that seek to address these questions using different theories and methods. In this Introduction, we review and organize the major strands of work on how the Anthropocene evolved, how evolutionary dynamics are influencing sustainability efforts today, and what principles, strategies and capacities will be important to guide us towards global sustainability in the future. We present a set of synthetic insights and highlight frontiers for future research efforts which could contribute to a consolidated synthesis. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Characteristic processes of human evolution caused the Anthropocene and may obstruct its global solutions

We propose that the global environmental crises of the Anthropocene are the outcome of a ratcheting process in long-term human evolution which has favoured groups of increased size and greater environmental exploitation. To explore this hypothesis, we review the changes in the human ecological niche. Evidence indicates the growth of the human niche has been facilitated by group-level cultural traits for environmental control. Following this logic, sustaining the biosphere under intense human use will probably require global cultural traits, including legal and technical systems. We investigate the conditions for the evolution of global cultural traits. We estimate that our species does not exhibit adequate population structure to evolve these traits. Our analysis suggests that characteristic patterns of human group-level cultural evolution created the Anthropocene and will work against global collective solutions to the environmental challenges it poses. We illustrate the implications of this theory with alternative evolutionary paths for humanity. We conclude that our species must alter longstanding patterns of cultural evolution to avoid environmental disaster and escalating between-group competition. We propose an applied research and policy programme with the goal of avoiding these outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability

The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Emergence and collapse of reciprocity in semiautomatic driving coordination experiments with humans

Forms of both simple and complex machine intelligence are increasingly acting within human groups in order to affect collective outcomes. Considering the nature of collective action problems, however, such involvement could paradoxically and unintentionally suppress existing beneficial social norms in humans, such as those involving cooperation. Here, we test theoretical predictions about such an effect using a unique cyber-physical lab experiment where online participants (N = 300 in 150 dyads) drive robotic vehicles remotely in a coordination game. We show that autobraking assistance increases human altruism, such as giving way to others, and that communication helps people to make mutual concessions. On the other hand, autosteering assistance completely inhibits the emergence of reciprocity between people in favor of self-interest maximization. The negative social repercussions persist even after the assistance system is deactivated. Furthermore, adding communication capabilities does not relieve this inhibition of reciprocity because people rarely communicate in the presence of autosteering assistance. Our findings suggest that active safety assistance (a form of simple AI support) can alter the dynamics of social coordination between people, including by affecting the trade-off between individual safety and social reciprocity. The difference between autobraking and autosteering assistance appears to relate to whether the assistive technology supports or replaces human agency in social coordination dilemmas. Humans have developed norms of reciprocity to address collective challenges, but such tacit understandings could break down in situations where machine intelligence is involved in human decision-making without having any normative commitments.

Social identity bias and communication network clustering interact to shape patterns of opinion dynamics

Social influence aligns people's opinions, but social identities and related in-group biases interfere with this alignment. For instance, the recent rise of young climate activists (e.g. 'Fridays for Future' or 'Last Generation') has highlighted the importance of generational identities in the climate change debate. It is unclear how social identities affect the emergence of opinion patterns, such as consensus or disagreement, in a society. Here, we present an agent-based model to explore this question. Agents communicate in a network and form opinions through social influence. The agents have fixed social identities which involve homophily in their interaction preferences and in-group bias in their perception of others. We find that the in-group bias has opposing effects depending on the network topology. The bias impedes consensus in highly random networks by promoting the formation of echo chambers within social identity groups. By contrast, the bias facilitates consensus in highly clustered networks by aligning dispersed in-group agents across the network and, thereby, preventing the formation of isolated echo chambers. Our model uncovers the mechanisms underpinning these opposing effects of the in-group bias and highlights the importance of the communication network topology for shaping opinion dynamics.

Outrage and algorithms: Shifting drug-related stigma in a digital world

Illicit drug dependence is one of the most stigmatised health conditions worldwide and the harmful impacts of stigma for people who use drugs are well documented. The use of stigmatising language about drugs in traditional media is also well documented. The increasing use of digital media platforms has revolutionised the way we communicate, and extended the reach of our messages. However, there are issues specific to the ways in which these platforms operate that have the potential to increase drug-related stigma. This paper outlines the importance of language, narrative, and imagery in reducing this stigma. It discusses the challenges digital media platforms present to achieving this goal, including the use of engagement strategies that trigger fear and increase stigma, the potential for amplifying stigmatising messages by using algorithms, and the potential for dissemination of misinformation. Key strategies to frame conversations about drug use are presented including 1) appeal to values of fairness and equity rather than scaring people; 2) avoid correcting misinformation as it strengthens unhelpful stigmatising frames of drug use; and 3) create a new narrative, focusing on the diversity of experiences of people who use drugs. Internationally we are at a critical juncture with respect to drug policy reform, and efforts to reduce drug-related stigma are central to building support for these reforms. The extensive reach of digital media platforms represents an important opportunity to communicate about illicit drug use. The challenge is to do so in a way that minimises stigma. If we are to achieve change, a narrative that puts values, people, health care and equity at the centre of the conversation is critical.

Modelling opinion dynamics under the impact of influencer and media strategies

Digital communication has made the public discourse considerably more complex, and new actors and strategies have emerged as a result of this seismic shift. Aside from the often-studied interactions among individuals during opinion formation, which have been facilitated on a large scale by social media platforms, the changing role of traditional media and the emerging role of "influencers" are not well understood, and the implications of their engagement strategies arising from the incentive structure of the attention economy even less so. Here we propose a novel framework for opinion dynamics that can accommodate various versions of opinion dynamics as well as account for different roles, namely that of individuals, media and influencers, who change their own opinion positions on different time scales. Numerical simulations of instances of this framework show the importance of their relative influence in creating qualitatively different opinion formation dynamics: with influencers, fragmented but short-lived clusters emerge, which are then counteracted by more stable media positions. The framework allows for mean-field approximations by partial differential equations, which reproduce those dynamics and allow for efficient large-scale simulations when the number of individuals is large. Based on the mean-field approximations, we can study how strategies of influencers to gain more followers can influence the overall opinion distribution. We show that moving towards extreme positions can be a beneficial strategy for influencers to gain followers. Finally, our framework allows us to demonstrate that optimal control strategies allow other influencers or media to counteract such attempts and prevent further fragmentation of the opinion landscape. Our modelling framework contributes to a more flexible modelling approach in opinion dynamics and a better understanding of the different roles and strategies in the increasingly complex information ecosystem.

Understanding Collective Human Behavior in Social Media Networks Via the Dynamical Hypothesis: Applications to Radicalization and Conspiratorial Beliefs

The dynamical hypothesis has served to explore the ways in which cognitive agents can be understood dynamically and considered dynamical systems. Originally used to explain simple physical systems as a metaphor for cognition (i.e., the Watt governor) and eventually more complex animal systems (e.g., bird flocks), we argue that the dynamical hypothesis is among the most viable approaches to understanding pressing modern-day issues that arise from collective human behavior in online social networks. First, we discuss how the dynamical hypothesis is positioned to describe, predict, and explain the time-evolving nature of complex systems. Next, we adopt an interdisciplinary perspective to describe how online social networks are appropriately understood as dynamical systems. We introduce a dynamical modeling approach to reveal information about emergent properties in social media, where radicalized conspiratorial beliefs arise via coordination between user-level and community-level comments. Lastly, we contrast how the dynamical hypothesis differs from alternatives in explaining collective human behavior in social networks.

Solidarity for the Anthropocene

Social solidarity is essential to large-scale collective action, but the need for solidarity has received little attention from scholars of Earth Systems, sustainability and public health. Now, the need for solidarity requires recognition. We have entered a new planetary epoch - the Anthropocene - in which human-induced global changes are occurring at an unprecedented scale. There are multiple health crises facing humanity - widening inequity, climate change, biodiversity loss, diminishing resources, persistent poverty, armed conflict, large-scale migration, and others. These global challenges are so far-reaching, and call for such extensive, large-scale action, that solidarity is a sine qua non for tackling these challenges. However, the heightened need for solidarity has received little attention in the context of the Anthropocene and, in particular, how it can be created and nurtured has been overlooked. In this commentary, we explore the concept of solidarity from inter-species, intra-generational and inter-generational perspectives. We also propose strategies to enhance solidarity in the Anthropocene.

Evolution as a result of resource flow in ecosystems: Ecological dynamics can drive evolution

To see how the flow of energy across ecosystems can derive evolution, I introduce a framework in which individuals interact with their peers and environment to accumulate resources, and use the resources to pay for their metabolic costs, grow and reproduce. I show that two conservation principles determine the system's equilibrium state: conservation of resources- a physical principle stating that in the equilibrium, resource production and consumption should balance, and payoff equality- an economic principle, stating that the payoffs of different types in equilibrium should equal. Besides the equilibrium state, the system shows non-equilibrium fluctuations derived by the exponential growth of the individuals in which the payoff equality principle does not hold. A simple gradient-ascend dynamical mean-field equation predicts the onset of non-equilibrium fluctuations. As an example, I study the evolution of cooperation in public goods games. In both mixed and structured populations, cooperation evolves naturally in resource-poor environments but not in resource-rich environments. Population viscosity facilitates cooperation in poor environments but can be detrimental to cooperation in rich environments. In addition, cooperators and defectors show different life-history strategies: Cooperators live shorter lives and reproduce more than defectors. Both population structure and, more significantly, population viscosity reduce lifespan and life history differences between cooperators and defectors.

People Think That Social Media Platforms Do (but Should Not) Amplify Divisive Content

Recent studies have documented the type of content that is most likely to spread widely, or go "viral," on social media, yet little is known about people's perceptions of what goes viral or what should go viral. This is critical to understand because there is widespread debate about how to improve or regulate social media algorithms. We recruited a sample of participants that is nationally representative of the U.S. population (according to age, gender, and race/ethnicity) and surveyed them about their perceptions of social media virality (n = 511). In line with prior research, people believe that divisive content, moral outrage, negative content, high-arousal content, and misinformation are all likely to go viral online. However, they reported that this type of content should not go viral on social media. Instead, people reported that many forms of positive content-such as accurate content, nuanced content, and educational content-are not likely to go viral even though they think this content should go viral. These perceptions were shared among most participants and were only weakly related to political orientation, social media usage, and demographic variables. In sum, there is broad consensus around the type of content people think social media platforms should and should not amplify, which can help inform solutions for improving social media.

A hypernetwork-based urn model for explaining collective dynamics

The topological characterization of complex systems has significantly contributed to our understanding of the principles of collective dynamics. However, the representation of general complex networks is not enough for explaining certain problems, such as collective actions. Considering the effectiveness of hypernetworks on modeling real-world complex networks, in this paper, we proposed a hypernetwork-based Pólya urn model that considers the effect of group identity. The mathematical deduction and simulation experiments show that social influence provides a strong imitation environment for individuals, which can prevent the dynamics from being self-correcting. Additionally, the unpredictability of the social system increases with growing social influence, and the effect of group identity can moderate market inequality caused by individual preference and social influence. The present work provides a modeling basis for a better understanding of the logic of collective dynamics.

Where next for behavioral public policy?

Our target article distinguishes between policy approaches that seek to address societal problems through intervention at the level of the individual (adopting the "i-frame") and those that seek to change the system within which those individuals live (adopting the "s-frame"). We stress also that a long-standing tactic of corporations opposing systemic change is to promote the i-frame perspective, presumably hoping that i-frame interventions will be largely ineffective and more importantly will be seen by the public and some policy makers as a genuine alternative to systemic change. We worry that the i-frame focus of much of behavioral science has inadvertently reinforced this unhelpful focus on the individual. In this response to commentators, we identify common themes, build on the many constructive suggestions to extend our approach, and reply to concerns. We argue, along with several commentators, that a key role of behavioral public policy is to clarify how to build support for systemic reforms for which there is a broad consensus in the policy community, but which are opposed by powerful special interests.

Influencing recommendation algorithms to reduce the spread of unreliable news by encouraging humans to fact-check articles, in a field experiment

Society often relies on social algorithms that adapt to human behavior. Yet scientists struggle to generalize the combined behavior of mutually-adapting humans and algorithms. This scientific challenge is a governance problem when algorithms amplify human responses to falsehoods. Could attempts to influence humans have second-order effects on algorithms? Using a large-scale field experiment, I test if influencing readers to fact-check unreliable sources causes news aggregation algorithms to promote or lessen the visibility of those sources. Interventions encouraged readers to fact-check articles or fact-check and provide votes to the algorithm. Across 1104 discussions, these encouragements increased human fact-checking and reduced vote scores on average. The fact-checking condition also caused the algorithm to reduce the promotion of articles over time by as much as -25 rank positions on average, enough to remove an article from the front page. Overall, this study offers a path for the science of human-algorithm behavior by experimentally demonstrating how influencing collective human behavior can also influence algorithm behavior.

Social Drivers and Algorithmic Mechanisms on Digital Media

On digital media, algorithms that process data and recommend content have become ubiquitous. Their fast and barely regulated adoption has raised concerns about their role in well-being both at the individual and collective levels. Algorithmic mechanisms on digital media are powered by social drivers, creating a feedback loop that complicates research to disentangle the role of algorithms and already existing social phenomena. Our brief overview of the current evidence on how algorithms affect well-being, misinformation, and polarization suggests that the role of algorithms in these phenomena is far from straightforward and that substantial further empirical research is needed. Existing evidence suggests that algorithms mostly reinforce existing social drivers, a finding that stresses the importance of reflecting on algorithms in the larger societal context that encompasses individualism, populist politics, and climate change. We present concrete ideas and research questions to improve algorithms on digital platforms and to investigate their role in current problems and potential solutions. Finally, we discuss how the current shift from social media to more algorithmically curated media brings both risks and opportunities if algorithms are designed for individual and societal flourishing rather than short-term profit.

Humans strategically avoid connecting to others who agree and avert the emergence of network polarization in a coordination task

Clusters of like-minded individuals can impede consensus in group decision-making. We implemented an online color coordination task to investigate whether control over communication links creates clusters impeding group consensus. In 244 6-member networks, individuals were incentivized to reach a consensus by agreeing on a color, but had conflicting incentives for which color to choose. We varied (1) if communication links were static, changed randomly over time, or were player-controlled; (2) whether links determined who was observed or addressed; and (3) whether a majority existed or equally many individuals preferred each color. We found that individuals preferentially selected links to previously unobserved and disagreeing others, avoiding links with agreeing others. This prevented cluster formation, sped up consensus formation rather than impeding it, and increased the probability that the group agreed on the majority incentive. Overall, participants with a consensus goal avoided clusters by applying strategies that resolved uncertainty about others.

Link updating strategies influence consensus decisions as a function of the direction of communication

Consensus decision-making in social groups strongly depends on communication links that determine to whom individuals send, and from whom they receive, information. Here, we ask how consensus decisions are affected by strategic updating of links and how this effect varies with the direction of communication. We quantified the coevolution of link and opinion dynamics in a large population with binary opinions using mean-field numerical simulations of two voter-like models of opinion dynamics: an incoming model (IM) (where individuals choose who to receive opinions from) and an outgoing model (OM) (where individuals choose who to send opinions to). We show that individuals can bias group-level outcomes in their favour by breaking disagreeing links while receiving opinions (IM) and retaining disagreeing links while sending opinions (OM). Importantly, these biases can help the population avoid stalemates and achieve consensus. However, the role of disagreement avoidance is diluted in the presence of strong preferences-highly stubborn individuals can shape decisions to favour their preferences, giving rise to non-consensus outcomes. We conclude that collectively changing communication structures can bias consensus decisions, as a function of the strength of preferences and the direction of communication.

General intelligence requires rethinking exploration

We are at the cusp of a transition from 'learning from data' to 'learning what data to learn from' as a central focus of artificial intelligence (AI) research. While the first-order learning problem is not completely solved, large models under unified architectures, such as transformers, have shifted the learning bottleneck from how to effectively train models to how to effectively acquire and use task-relevant data. This problem, which we frame as exploration, is a universal aspect of learning in open-ended domains like the real world. Although the study of exploration in AI is largely limited to the field of reinforcement learning, we argue that exploration is essential to all learning systems, including supervised learning. We propose the problem of generalized exploration to conceptually unify exploration-driven learning between supervised learning and reinforcement learning, allowing us to highlight key similarities across learning settings and open research challenges. Importantly, generalized exploration is a necessary objective for maintaining open-ended learning processes, which in continually learning to discover and solve new problems, provides a promising path to more general intelligence.

Earth Systems to Anthropocene Systems: An Evolutionary, System-of-Systems, Convergence Paradigm for Interdependent Societal Challenges

Humans have made profound changes to the Earth. The resulting societal challenges of the Anthropocene (e.g., climate change and impacts, renewable energy, adaptive infrastructure, disasters, pandemics, food insecurity, and biodiversity loss) are complex and systemic, with causes, interactions, and consequences that cascade across a globally connected system of systems. In this Critical Review, we turn to our "origin story" for insight, briefly tracing the formation of the Universe and the Earth, the emergence of life, the evolution of multicellular organisms, mammals, primates, and humans, as well as the more recent societal transitions involving agriculture, urbanization, industrialization, and computerization. Focusing on the evolution of the Earth, genetic evolution, the evolution of the brain, and cultural evolution, which includes technological evolution, we identify a nested evolutionary sequence of geophysical, biophysical, sociocultural, and sociotechnical systems, emphasizing the causal mechanisms that first formed, and then transformed, Earth systems into Anthropocene systems. Describing how the Anthropocene systems coevolved, and briefly illustrating how the ensuing societal challenges became tightly integrated across multiple spatial, temporal, and organizational scales, we conclude by proposing an evolutionary, system-of-systems, convergence paradigm for the entire family of interdependent societal challenges of the Anthropocene.

Beyond collective intelligence: Collective adaptation

We develop a conceptual framework for studying collective adaptation in complex socio-cognitive systems, driven by dynamic interactions of social integration strategies, social environments and problem structures. Going beyond searching for 'intelligent' collectives, we integrate research from different disciplines and outline modelling approaches that can be used to begin answering questions such as why collectives sometimes fail to reach seemingly obvious solutions, how they change their strategies and network structures in response to different problems and how we can anticipate and perhaps change future harmful societal trajectories. We discuss the importance of considering path dependence, lack of optimization and collective myopia to understand the sometimes counterintuitive outcomes of collective adaptation. We call for a transdisciplinary, quantitative and societally useful social science that can help us to understand our rapidly changing and ever more complex societies, avoid collective disasters and reach the full potential of our ability to organize in adaptive collectives.

Analysing the effectiveness of Twitter as an equitable community communication tool for international conferences

Scientific conferences increasingly include online aspects. Some are moving to be entirely virtual whilst others are adopting hybrid models in which there are both in-person and virtual elements. This development of opportunities for people to attend conferences virtually has the potential to both reduce their environmental impact and to make access to them more equitable. An issue with virtual conference participation that has been raised, however, is that there is a reduction in informal communication between attendees. This is an important deficit as informal contacts play a significant role in both knowledge transmission and professional network development. One forum where some informal communication around conferences does occur is Twitter, with participation there being encouraged by some conferences. It is not clear, however, how effective Twitter is as a community communication tool in terms of equitable participation amongst conference attendees. To investigate this, we looked at Twitter usage surrounding four international conferences between 2010 and 2021. It was found that engagement with conference hashtags increased steadily over time, peaking in 2019. Users represented 9% of conference attendees and were primarily located in Europe and North America, communicating primarily in English (97% of tweets). Hub nodes within the interaction network were also primarily located in these regions. East Asia had fewer users than would be expected based on neuroscience publication numbers from that region. What users there were in East Asia were engaged with less than were users in other regions. It was found that the overall interaction network showed a rich-club structure, where users with more connections tend to interact more with others with similar connection numbers. Finally, it was found that users in Europe and North America tend to communicate with other users in their own regions whereas users in the rest of the world direct their interactions out of their region. These results suggest that although conference-related Twitter use has been successful to some degree in opening up access, there are some notable limitations in its usage that may mirror aspects of inequality inherent to in-person conferences. How to build equitable informal communication networks around virtual conferences remains a challenging question that requires further discussion.

A systematic review of worldwide causal and correlational evidence on digital media and democracy

One of today's most controversial and consequential issues is whether the global uptake of digital media is causally related to a decline in democracy. We conducted a systematic review of causal and correlational evidence (N = 496 articles) on the link between digital media use and different political variables. Some associations, such as increasing political participation and information consumption, are likely to be beneficial for democracy and were often observed in autocracies and emerging democracies. Other associations, such as declining political trust, increasing populism and growing polarization, are likely to be detrimental to democracy and were more pronounced in established democracies. While the impact of digital media on political systems depends on the specific variable and system in question, several variables show clear directions of associations. The evidence calls for research efforts and vigilance by governments and civil societies to better understand, design and regulate the interplay of digital media and democracy.

Atomist or holist? A diagnosis and vision for more productive interdisciplinary AI ethics dialogue

In response to growing recognition of the social impacts of new artificial intelligence (AI)-based technologies, major AI and machine learning (ML) conferences and journals now encourage or require papers to include ethics impact statements and undergo ethics reviews. This move has sparked heated debate concerning the role of ethics in AI research, at times devolving into name calling and threats of "cancellation." We diagnose this conflict as one between "atomist" and "holist" ideologies. Among other things, atomists believe facts are and should be kept separate from values, while holists believe facts and values are and should be inextricable from one another. With the goal of reducing disciplinary polarization, we draw on numerous philosophical and historical sources to describe each ideology's core beliefs and assumptions. Finally, we call on atomists and holists within the ever-expanding data science community to exhibit greater empathy during ethical disagreements and propose four targeted strategies to ensure AI research benefits society.

Collective memory and the individual mind

How does social transmission of information shape individual and collective memory? Taking a cognitive-experimental perspective, I propose three critical research themes to tackle in the next 25 years: the dynamic reciprocity of influence between the individual and the collective; changes in the individual and collective memory structures; and the impact of culture.

A cultural evolutionary theory that explains both gradual and punctuated change

Cumulative cultural evolution (CCE) occurs among humans who may be presented with many similar options from which to choose, as well as many social influences and diverse environments. It is unknown what general principles underlie the wide range of CCE dynamics and whether they can all be explained by the same unified paradigm. Here, we present a scalable evolutionary model of discrete choice with social learning, based on a few behavioural science assumptions. This paradigm connects the degree of transparency in social learning to the human tendency to imitate others. Computer simulations and quantitative analysis show the interaction of three primary factors—information transparency, popularity bias and population size—drives the pace of CCE. The model predicts a stable rate of evolutionary change for modest degrees of popularity bias. As popularity bias grows, the transition from gradual to punctuated change occurs, with maladaptive subpopulations arising on their own. When the popularity bias gets too severe, CCE stops. This provides a consistent framework for explaining the rich and complex adaptive dynamics taking place in the real world, such as modern digital media.

On the relationship between conspiracy theory beliefs, misinformation, and vaccine hesitancy

At the time of writing, nearly one hundred published studies demonstrate that beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories and misinformation are negatively associated with COVID-19 preventive behaviors. These correlational findings are often interpreted as evidence that beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation are exogenous factors that shape human behavior, such as forgoing vaccination. This interpretation has motivated researchers to develop methods for "prebunking," "debunking," or otherwise limiting the spread of conspiracy theories and misinformation online. However, the robust literatures on conspiracy theory beliefs, health behaviors, and media effects lead us to question whether beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation should be treated as exogenous to vaccine hesitancy and refusal. Employing U.S. survey data (n = 2,065) from July 2021, we show that beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories and misinformation are not only related to COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and refusal, but also strongly associated with the same psychological, social, and political motivations theorized to drive COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and refusal. These findings suggest that beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation might not always be an exogenous cause, but rather a manifestation of the same factors that lead to vaccine hesitancy and refusal. We conclude by encouraging researchers to carefully consider modeling choices and imploring practitioners to refocus on the worldviews, personality traits, and political orientations that underlie both health-related behaviors and beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation.

How digital media drive affective polarization through partisan sorting

Politics has in recent decades entered an era of intense polarization. Explanations have implicated digital media, with the so-called echo chamber remaining a dominant causal hypothesis despite growing challenge by empirical evidence. This paper suggests that this mounting evidence provides not only reason to reject the echo chamber hypothesis but also the foundation for an alternative causal mechanism. To propose such a mechanism, the paper draws on the literatures on affective polarization, digital media, and opinion dynamics. From the affective polarization literature, we follow the move from seeing polarization as diverging issue positions to rooted in sorting: an alignment of differences which is effectively dividing the electorate into two increasingly homogeneous megaparties. To explain the rise in sorting, the paper draws on opinion dynamics and digital media research to present a model which essentially turns the echo chamber on its head: it is not isolation from opposing views that drives polarization but precisely the fact that digital media bring us to interact outside our local bubble. When individuals interact locally, the outcome is a stable plural patchwork of cross-cutting conflicts. By encouraging nonlocal interaction, digital media drive an alignment of conflicts along partisan lines, thus effacing the counterbalancing effects of local heterogeneity. The result is polarization, even if individual interaction leads to convergence. The model thus suggests that digital media polarize through partisan sorting, creating a maelstrom in which more and more identities, beliefs, and cultural preferences become drawn into an all-encompassing societal division.

Facilitating innovation diffusion in social networks using dynamic norms

Dynamic norms have recently emerged as a powerful method to encourage individuals to adopt an innovation by highlighting a growing trend in its uptake. However, there have been no concrete attempts to understand how this individual-level mechanism might shape the collective population behavior. Here, we develop a framework to examine this by encapsulating dynamic norms within a game-theoretic mathematical model for innovation diffusion. Specifically, we extend a network coordination game by incorporating a probabilistic mechanism where an individual adopts the action with growing popularity, instead of the standard best-response update rule; the probability of such an event captures the population's "sensitivity" to dynamic norms. Theoretical analysis reveals that sensitivity to dynamic norms is key to facilitating social diffusion. Small increases in sensitivity reduces the advantage of the innovation over status quo or the number of initial innovators required to unlock diffusion, while a sufficiently large sensitivity alone guarantees diffusion.

Combining interventions to reduce the spread of viral misinformation

Misinformation online poses a range of threats, from subverting democratic processes to undermining public health measures. Proposed solutions range from encouraging more selective sharing by individuals to removing false content and accounts that create or promote it. Here we provide a framework to evaluate interventions aimed at reducing viral misinformation online both in isolation and when used in combination. We begin by deriving a generative model of viral misinformation spread, inspired by research on infectious disease. By applying this model to a large corpus (10.5 million tweets) of misinformation events that occurred during the 2020 US election, we reveal that commonly proposed interventions are unlikely to be effective in isolation. However, our framework demonstrates that a combined approach can achieve a substantial reduction in the prevalence of misinformation. Our results highlight a practical path forward as misinformation online continues to threaten vaccination efforts, equity and democratic processes around the globe.

Freedom and Constraint in Digital Environments: Implications for the Self

We evaluate how features of the digital environment free or constrain the self. Based on the current empirical literature, we argue that modern technological features, such as predictive algorithms and tracking tools, pose four potential obstacles to the freedom of the self: lack of privacy and anonymity, (dis)embodiment and entrenchment of social hierarchy, changes to memory and cognition, and behavioral reinforcement coupled with reduced randomness. Comparing these constraints on the self to the freedom promised by earlier digital environments suggests that digital reality can be designed in more freeing ways. We describe how people reassert personal agency in the face of the digital environment's constraints and provide avenues for future research regarding technology's influence on the self.

Americans experience a false social reality by underestimating popular climate policy support by nearly half

Pluralistic ignorance—a shared misperception of how others think or behave—poses a challenge to collective action on problems like climate change. Using a representative sample of Americans (N = 6119), we examine whether Americans accurately perceive national concern about climate change and support for mitigating policies. We find a form of pluralistic ignorance that we describe as a false social reality: a near universal perception of public opinion that is the opposite of true public sentiment. Specifically, 80–90% of Americans underestimate the prevalence of support for major climate change mitigation policies and climate concern. While 66–80% Americans support these policies, Americans estimate the prevalence to only be between 37–43% on average. Thus, supporters of climate policies outnumber opponents two to one, while Americans falsely perceive nearly the opposite to be true. Further, Americans in every state and every assessed demographic underestimate support across all polices tested. Preliminary evidence suggests three sources of these misperceptions: (i) consistent with a false consensus effect, respondents who support these policies less (conservatives) underestimate support by a greater degree; controlling for one’s own personal politics, (ii) exposure to more conservative local norms and (iii) consuming conservative news correspond to greater misperceptions.

A new study finds that Americans underestimate how many are concerned about climate change as well as support for major climate policies by nearly half, with climate policy supporters significantly outnumbering non-supporters.

Digital Extended Specimens: Enabling an Extensible Network of Biodiversity Data Records as Integrated Digital Objects on the Internet

The early twenty-first century has witnessed massive expansions in availability and accessibility of digital data in virtually all domains of the biodiversity sciences. Led by an array of asynchronous digitization activities spanning ecological, environmental, climatological, and biological collections data, these initiatives have resulted in a plethora of mostly disconnected and siloed data, leaving to researchers the tedious and time-consuming manual task of finding and connecting them in usable ways, integrating them into coherent data sets, and making them interoperable. The focus to date has been on elevating analog and physical records to digital replicas in local databases prior to elevating them to ever-growing aggregations of essentially disconnected discipline-specific information. In the present article, we propose a new interconnected network of digital objects on the Internet—the Digital Extended Specimen (DES) network—that transcends existing aggregator technology, augments the DES with third-party data through machine algorithms, and provides a platform for more efficient research and robust interdisciplinary discovery.

Have beliefs in conspiracy theories increased over time?

The public is convinced that beliefs in conspiracy theories are increasing, and many scholars, journalists, and policymakers agree. Given the associations between conspiracy theories and many non-normative tendencies, lawmakers have called for policies to address these increases. However, little evidence has been provided to demonstrate that beliefs in conspiracy theories have, in fact, increased over time. We address this evidentiary gap. Study 1 investigates change in the proportion of Americans believing 46 conspiracy theories; our observations in some instances span half a century. Study 2 examines change in the proportion of individuals across six European countries believing six conspiracy theories. Study 3 traces beliefs about which groups are conspiring against “us,” while Study 4 tracks generalized conspiracy thinking in the U.S. from 2012 to 2021. In no instance do we observe systematic evidence for an increase in conspiracism, however operationalized. We discuss the theoretical and policy implications of our findings.

Hybrid social learning in human-algorithm cultural transmission

Humans are impressive social learners. Researchers of cultural evolution have studied the many biases shaping cultural transmission by selecting who we copy from and what we copy. One hypothesis is that with the advent of superhuman algorithms a hybrid type of cultural transmission, namely from algorithms to humans, may have long-lasting effects on human culture. We suggest that algorithms might show (either by learning or by design) different behaviours, biases and problem-solving abilities than their human counterparts. In turn, algorithmic-human hybrid problem solving could foster better decisions in environments where diversity in problem-solving strategies is beneficial. This study asks whether algorithms with complementary biases to humans can boost performance in a carefully controlled planning task, and whether humans further transmit algorithmic behaviours to other humans. We conducted a large behavioural study and an agent-based simulation to test the performance of transmission chains with human and algorithmic players. We show that the algorithm boosts the performance of immediately following participants but this gain is quickly lost for participants further down the chain. Our findings suggest that algorithms can improve performance, but human bias may hinder algorithmic solutions from being preserved. This article is part of the theme issue 'Emergent phenomena in complex physical and socio-technical systems: from cells to societies'.