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Lv Q, Chen Z, Wu C, Peñuelas J, Fan L, Su Y, Yang Z, Li M, Gao B, Hu J, Zhang C, Fu Y, Wang Q. Increasing severity of large-scale fires prolongs recovery time of forests globally since 2001. Nat Ecol Evol 2025; 9:980-992. [PMID: 40263394 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-025-02683-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2024] [Accepted: 03/13/2025] [Indexed: 04/24/2025]
Abstract
Ongoing and sharply increased global forest fires, especially extreme large-scale fires (LFs) with their greater destructiveness, have significantly altered forest structures and functions. However, long-term variations in the severity of LFs and corresponding effects on the natural post-LF recovery time of global forests remain unclear. Here, we rigorously identified 3,281 global large-scale (>10 km2) single-time fire events (LSFs) from 2001 to 2021, and used multiple indicators to understand the post-LSF recovery dynamics from different perspectives and comprehensively reveal major driving factors across regions and forests types based on multiple models. Compared with pre-2010, LSFs after 2010 caused greater forest damage, with the fire severity expanding further from low to high latitudes and from humid to arid regions, particularly affecting evergreen needleleaf forests. Fewer than one-third of the forests recovered successfully within 7 years, and most of these were tropical, moisture-rich broadleaf forests. The average time required for three indicators to recover to pre-fire conditions increased by 7.5% (vegetation density), 11.1% (canopy structure) and 27.3% (gross primary productivity). Moreover, the positive sensitivity of recovery time to increased fire severity was significantly intensified. Notably, more forests experienced recovery stagnation with increased severity, especially in boreal forests, further extending recovery time. The negative impact of the severity of LSFs on forest recovery was much stronger than that of post-LSF climate conditions. Soil moisture after LSFs was identified as the primary facilitating factor. Temperature generally had a positive role before 2010, but a strong negative influence on post-LSF forest recovery after 2010. These findings provide a useful reference for better understanding global forest recovery mechanisms, estimating forest carbon sinks and implementing post-LSF management accordingly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qiancheng Lv
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Ziyue Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
| | - Chaoyang Wu
- The Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
| | - Josep Peñuelas
- CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Lei Fan
- School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Yongxian Su
- State Key Laboratory for Ecological Security of Regions and Cities, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Zeyu Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Manchun Li
- School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
| | - Bingbo Gao
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Jianqiang Hu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Chaoqun Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Yuheng Fu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Qiao Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
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Dye AW, Houtman RM, Gao P, Anderegg WRL, Fettig CJ, Hicke JA, Kim JB, Still CJ, Young K, Riley KL. Carbon, climate, and natural disturbance: a review of mechanisms, challenges, and tools for understanding forest carbon stability in an uncertain future. CARBON BALANCE AND MANAGEMENT 2024; 19:35. [PMID: 39388012 PMCID: PMC11468384 DOI: 10.1186/s13021-024-00282-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2024] [Accepted: 10/01/2024] [Indexed: 10/15/2024]
Abstract
In this review, we discuss current research on forest carbon risk from natural disturbance under climate change for the United States, with emphasis on advancements in analytical mapping and modeling tools that have potential to drive research for managing future long-term stability of forest carbon. As a natural mechanism for carbon storage, forests are a critical component of meeting climate mitigation strategies designed to combat anthropogenic emissions. Forests consist of long-lived organisms (trees) that can store carbon for centuries or more. However, trees have finite lifespans, and disturbances such as wildfire, insect and disease outbreaks, and drought can hasten tree mortality or reduce tree growth, thereby slowing carbon sequestration, driving carbon emissions, and reducing forest carbon storage in stable pools, particularly the live and standing dead portions that are counted in many carbon offset programs. Many forests have natural disturbance regimes, but climate change and human activities disrupt the frequency and severity of disturbances in ways that are likely to have consequences for the long-term stability of forest carbon. To minimize negative effects and maximize resilience of forest carbon, disturbance risks must be accounted for in carbon offset protocols, carbon management practices, and carbon mapping and modeling techniques. This requires detailed mapping and modeling of the quantities and distribution of forest carbon across the United States and hopefully one day globally; the frequency, severity, and timing of disturbances; the mechanisms by which disturbances affect carbon storage; and how climate change may alter each of these elements. Several tools (e.g. fire spread models, imputed forest inventory models, and forest growth simulators) exist to address one or more of the aforementioned items and can help inform management strategies that reduce forest carbon risk, maintain long-term stability of forest carbon, and further explore challenges, uncertainties, and opportunities for evaluating the continued potential of, and threats to, forests as viable mechanisms for forest carbon storage, including carbon offsets. A growing collective body of research and technological improvements have advanced the science, but we highlight and discuss key limitations, uncertainties, and gaps that remain.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alex W Dye
- Department of Forest Ecosystems & Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA.
| | - Rachel M Houtman
- USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula Fire Sciences Lab, Missoula, MT, USA
| | - Peng Gao
- Department of Earth & Ocean Sciences, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, Wilmington, NC, USA
| | - William R L Anderegg
- Wilkes Center for Climate Science and Policy, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
| | | | - Jeffrey A Hicke
- Department of Earth & Spatial Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA
| | - John B Kim
- USDA Forest Service Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Corvallis, OR, USA
| | - Christopher J Still
- Department of Forest Ecosystems & Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA
| | - Kevin Young
- University of North Carolina at Wilmington, Wilmington, NC, USA
| | - Karin L Riley
- USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula Fire Sciences Lab, Missoula, MT, USA
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3
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Syphard AD, Velazco SJE, Rose MB, Franklin J, Regan HM. The importance of geography in forecasting future fire patterns under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2310076121. [PMID: 39074287 PMCID: PMC11317612 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2310076121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2023] [Accepted: 12/07/2023] [Indexed: 07/31/2024] Open
Abstract
An increasing amount of California's landscape has burned in wildfires in recent decades, in conjunction with increasing temperatures and vapor pressure deficit due to climate change. As the wildland-urban interface expands, more people are exposed to and harmed by these extensive wildfires, which are also eroding the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. With future wildfire activity expected to increase, there is an urgent demand for solutions that sustain healthy ecosystems and wildfire-resilient human communities. Those who manage disaster response, landscapes, and biodiversity rely on mapped projections of how fire activity may respond to climate change and other human factors. California wildfire is complex, however, and climate-fire relationships vary across the state. Given known geographical variability in drivers of fire activity, we asked whether the geographical extent of fire models used to create these projections may alter the interpretation of predictions. We compared models of fire occurrence spanning the entire state of California to models developed for individual ecoregions and then projected end-of-century future fire patterns under climate change scenarios. We trained a Maximum Entropy model with fire records and hydroclimatological variables from recent decades (1981 to 2010) as well as topographic and human infrastructure predictors. Results showed substantial variation in predictors of fire probability and mapped future projections of fire depending upon geographical extents of model boundaries. Only the ecoregion models, accounting for the unique patterns of vegetation, climate, and human infrastructure, projected an increase in fire in most forested regions of the state, congruent with predictions from other studies.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Santiago José Elías Velazco
- Instituto de Biología Subtropical, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas - Universidad Nacional de Misiones, Puerto Iguazú, Misiones3370, Argentina
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biodiversidade Neotropical, Universidade Federal da Integração Latino-Americana, Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná85870-650, Brazil
| | - Miranda Brooke Rose
- Department of Botany and Plant Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA92521
| | - Janet Franklin
- Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA92812
| | - Helen M. Regan
- Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology, University of California, Riverside, CA92521
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Ahmad SK, Holmes TR, Kumar SV, Lahmers TM, Liu PW, Nie W, Getirana A, Orland E, Bindlish R, Guzman A, Hain CR, Melton FS, Locke KA, Yang Y. Droughts impede water balance recovery from fires in the Western United States. Nat Ecol Evol 2024; 8:229-238. [PMID: 38168941 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02266-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2023] [Accepted: 11/07/2023] [Indexed: 01/05/2024]
Abstract
A steady rise in fires in the Western United States, coincident with intensifying droughts, imparts substantial modifications to the underlying vegetation, hydrology and overall ecosystem. Drought can compound the ecosystem disturbance caused by fire, although how these compound effects on hydrologic and ecosystem recovery vary among ecosystems is poorly understood. Here we use remote sensing-derived high-resolution evapotranspiration (ET) estimates from before and after 1,514 fires to show that ecoregions dominated by grasslands and shrublands are more susceptible to drought, which amplifies fire-induced ET decline and, subsequently, shifts water flux partitioning. In contrast, severely burned forests recover from fire slowly or incompletely, but are less sensitive to dry extremes. We conclude that moisture limitation caused by droughts influences the dynamics of water balance recovery in post-fire years. This finding explains why moderate to extreme droughts aggravate impacts on the water balance in non-forested vegetation, while moisture accessed by deeper roots in forests helps meet evaporative demands unless severe burns disrupt internal tree structure and deplete fuel load availability. Our results highlight the dominant control of drought on altering the resilience of vegetation to fires, with critical implications for terrestrial ecosystem stability in the face of anthropogenic climate change in the West.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shahryar K Ahmad
- Hydrological Sciences Lab, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD, USA.
- Science Applications International Corporation, McLean, VA, USA.
| | - Thomas R Holmes
- Hydrological Sciences Lab, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Sujay V Kumar
- Hydrological Sciences Lab, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Timothy M Lahmers
- Hydrological Sciences Lab, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC), University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Pang-Wei Liu
- Hydrological Sciences Lab, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, USA
| | - Wanshu Nie
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Augusto Getirana
- Hydrological Sciences Lab, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Science Applications International Corporation, McLean, VA, USA
| | - Elijah Orland
- Hydrological Sciences Lab, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD, USA
- GESTAR II, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Rajat Bindlish
- Hydrological Sciences Lab, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Alberto Guzman
- Biospheric Sciences Branch, NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), Moffett Field, Santa Clara, CA, USA
- California State University, Monterey Bay, Seaside, CA, USA
| | | | - Forrest S Melton
- Biospheric Sciences Branch, NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), Moffett Field, Santa Clara, CA, USA
- California State University, Monterey Bay, Seaside, CA, USA
| | - Kim A Locke
- Hydrological Sciences Lab, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Science Applications International Corporation, McLean, VA, USA
| | - Yun Yang
- Department of Forestry, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS, USA
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5
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Fierce fires lessen a forest's appetite for carbon. Nature 2023; 616:223. [PMID: 37019957 DOI: 10.1038/d41586-023-00907-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/07/2023]
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