Selective sweeps in SARS-CoV-2 variant competition

An optimal network that promotes the spread of an advantageous variant in an SIR epidemic

In the course of epidemics, the pathogen may mutate to acquire a higher fitness. At the same time, such a mutant is automatically in an unfavorable position because the resident virus has a head start in accessing the pool of susceptible individuals. We considered a class of tunable small-world networks, where a parameter, p (the rewiring probability), characterizes the prevalence of non-local connections, and we asked, whether the underlying network can influence the fate of a mutant virus. Under an SIR model, we considered two measures of mutant success: the expected height of the peak of mutant infected individuals, and the total number of recovered from mutant individuals at the end of the epidemic. Using these measures, we have found the existence of an optimal (for an advantageous mutant virus) rewiring probability that promotes a larger infected maximum and a larger total recovered population corresponding to the advantageous pathogen strain. This optimal rewiring probability decreases as mean degree and the infectivity of the wild type are increased, and it increases with the mutant advantage. The non-monotonic behavior of the advantageous mutant as a function of rewiring probability may shed light into some of the complex patterns in the size of mutant peaks experienced by different countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Within-Host Fitness and Antigenicity Shift Are Key Factors Influencing the Prevalence of Within-Host Variations in the SARS-CoV-2 S Gene

Within-host evolution plays a critical role in shaping the diversity of SARS-CoV-2. However, understanding the primary factors contributing to the prevalence of intra-host single nucleotide variants (iSNVs) in the viral population remains elusive. Here, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of over 556,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data and prevalence data of different SARS-CoV-2 S protein amino acid mutations to elucidate key factors influencing the prevalence of iSNVs in the SARS-CoV-2 S gene. Within-host diversity analysis revealed the presence of mutational hotspots within the S gene, mainly located in NTD, RBD, TM, and CT domains. Additionally, we generated a single amino acid resolution selection status map of the S protein. We observed a significant variance in within-host fitness among iSNVs in the S protein. The majority of iSNVs exhibited low to no within-host fitness and displayed low alternate allele frequency (AAF), suggesting that they will be eliminated due to the narrow transmission bottleneck of SARS-CoV-2. Notably, iSNVs with moderate AAFs (0.06-0.12) were found to be more prevalent than those with high AAFs. Furthermore, iSNVs with the potential to alter antigenicity were more prevalent. These findings underscore the significance of within-host fitness and antigenicity shift as two key factors influencing the prevalence of iSNVs in the SARS-CoV-2 S gene.

Differential responses of SARS-CoV-2 variants to environmental drivers during their selective sweeps

Previous work has shown that environmental variables affect SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it is unclear whether different strains show similar environmental responses. Here we leverage genetic data on the transmission of three (Alpha, Delta and Omicron BA.1) variants of SARS-CoV-2 throughout England, to unpick the roles that climate and public-health interventions play in the circulation of this virus. We find evidence for enhanced transmission of the virus in colder conditions in the first variant selective sweep (of Alpha, in winter), but limited evidence of an impact of climate in either the second (of Delta, in the summer, when vaccines were prevalent) or third sweep (of Omicron, in the winter, during a successful booster-vaccination campaign). We argue that the results for Alpha are to be expected if the impact of climate is non-linear: we find evidence of an asymptotic impact of temperature on the alpha variant transmission rate. That is, at lower temperatures, the influence of temperature on transmission is much higher than at warmer temperatures. As with the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2, however, the overwhelming majority of variation in disease transmission is explained by the intrinsic biology of the virus and public-health mitigation measures. Specifically, when vaccination rates are high, a major driver of the spread of a new variant is it's ability to evade immunity, and any climate effects are secondary (as evidenced for Delta and Omicron). Climate alone cannot describe the transmission dynamics of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Wastewater and seroprevalence for pandemic preparedness: variant analysis, vaccination effect, and hospitalization forecasting for SARS-CoV-2, in Jefferson County, Kentucky

Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale SARS-CoV-2 vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates. We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021-August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible (S), vaccinated (V), variant-specific infected (I_1 and I_2), recovered (R), and seropositive (T) model (SVI_2 RT) tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration. The 64% county vaccination rate translated into about 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence was a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which corresponded to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration had the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag. Our study underscores the importance of continued environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness.

PARNAS: Objectively Selecting the Most Representative Taxa on a Phylogeny

The use of next-generation sequencing technology has enabled phylogenetic studies with hundreds of thousands of taxa. Such large-scale phylogenies have become a critical component in genomic epidemiology in pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A virus. However, detailed phenotypic characterization of pathogens or generating a computationally tractable dataset for detailed phylogenetic analyses requires objective subsampling of taxa. To address this need, we propose parnas, an objective and flexible algorithm to sample and select taxa that best represent observed diversity by solving a generalized k-medoids problem on a phylogenetic tree. parnas solves this problem efficiently and exactly by novel optimizations and adapting algorithms from operations research. For more nuanced selections, taxa can be weighted with metadata or genetic sequence parameters, and the pool of potential representatives can be user-constrained. Motivated by influenza A virus genomic surveillance and vaccine design, parnas can be applied to identify representative taxa that optimally cover the diversity in a phylogeny within a specified distance radius. We demonstrated that parnas is more efficient and flexible than existing approaches. To demonstrate its utility, we applied parnas to 1) quantify SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity over time, 2) select representative influenza A virus in swine genes derived from over 5 years of genomic surveillance data, and 3) identify gaps in H3N2 human influenza A virus vaccine coverage. We suggest that our method, through the objective selection of representatives in a phylogeny, provides criteria for quantifying genetic diversity that has application in the the rational design of multivalent vaccines and genomic epidemiology. PARNAS is available at https://github.com/flu-crew/parnas.

SARS-CoV-2: An Update on the Biological Interplay with the Human Host

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious respiratory illness caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease, first identified in the Chinese city of Wuhan in November 2019, has since spread worldwide, is the latest human pandemic and has officially infected over 800 million people and has caused nearly seven million deaths to date. Although SARS-CoV-2 belongs to the large family of coronaviruses, it has some unique biological characteristics in its interplay with the human host. Therefore, this narrative review aims to provide an up-to-date overview of the structure of the virus, incubation and shedding in the human host, infectivity and biological evolution over time, as well as the main mechanisms for invading human host cells and replicating within. We also proffer that ongoing epidemiological surveillance of newly emerged variants must always be accompanied by biological studies aimed at deciphering new advantageous traits that may contribute to increasing virulence and pathogenicity, such that the most appropriate strategies for establishing a (relatively) safe coexistence with the human host can be implemented.

The coming Omicron waves and factors affecting its spread after China reopening borders

The Chinese government relaxed the Zero-COVID policy on Dec 15, 2022, and reopened the border on Jan 8, 2023. Therefore, COVID prevention in China is facing new challenges. Though there are plenty of prior studies on COVID, none is regarding the predictions on daily confirmed cases, and medical resources needs after China reopens its borders. To fill this gap, this study innovates a combination of the Erdos Renyl network, modified computational model [Formula: see text], and python code instead of only mathematical formulas or computer simulations in the previous studies. The research background in this study is Shanghai, a representative city in China. Therefore, the results in this study also demonstrate the situation in other regions of China. According to the population distribution and migration characteristics, we divided Shanghai into six epidemic research areas. We built a COVID spread model of the Erodos Renyl network. And then, we use python code to simulate COVID spread based on modified [Formula: see text] model. The results demonstrate that the second and third waves will occur in July-September and Oct-Dec, respectively. At the peak of the epidemic in 2023, the daily confirmed cases will be 340,000, and the cumulative death will be about 31,500. Moreover, 74,000 hospital beds and 3,700 Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds will be occupied in Shanghai. Therefore, Shanghai faces a shortage of medical resources. In this simulation, daily confirmed cases predictions significantly rely on transmission, migration, and waning immunity rate. The study builds a mixed-effect model to verify further the three parameters' effect on the new confirmed cases. The results demonstrate that migration and waning immunity rates are two significant parameters in COVID spread and daily confirmed cases. This study offers theoretical evidence for the government to prevent COVID after China opened its borders.

Making waves: Integrating wastewater surveillance with dynamic modeling to track and predict viral outbreaks

Wastewater surveillance has proved to be a valuable tool to track the COVID-19 pandemic. However, most studies using wastewater surveillance data revolve around establishing correlations and lead time relative to reported case data. In this perspective, we advocate for the integration of wastewater surveillance data with dynamic within-host and between-host models to better understand, monitor, and predict viral disease outbreaks. Dynamic models overcome emblematic difficulties of using wastewater surveillance data such as establishing the temporal viral shedding profile. Complementarily, wastewater surveillance data bypasses the issues of time lag and underreporting in clinical case report data, thus enhancing the utility and applicability of dynamic models. The integration of wastewater surveillance data with dynamic models can enhance real-time tracking and prevalence estimation, forecast viral transmission and intervention effectiveness, and most importantly, provide a mechanistic understanding of infectious disease dynamics and the driving factors. Dynamic modeling of wastewater surveillance data will advance the development of a predictive and responsive monitoring system to improve pandemic preparedness and population health.

A two-strain model of infectious disease spread with asymmetric temporary immunity periods and partial cross-immunity

We introduce a two-strain model with asymmetric temporary immunity periods and partial cross-immunity. We derive explicit conditions for competitive exclusion and coexistence of the strains depending on the strain-specific basic reproduction numbers, temporary immunity periods, and degree of cross-immunity. The results of our bifurcation analysis suggest that, even when two strains share similar basic reproduction numbers and other epidemiological parameters, a disparity in temporary immunity periods and partial or complete cross-immunity can provide a significant competitive advantage. To analyze the dynamics, we introduce a quasi-steady state reduced model which assumes the original strain remains at its endemic steady state. We completely analyze the resulting reduced planar hybrid switching system using linear stability analysis, planar phase-plane analysis, and the Bendixson-Dulac criterion. We validate both the full and reduced models with COVID-19 incidence data, focusing on the Delta (B.1.617.2), Omicron (B.1.1.529), and Kraken (XBB.1.5) variants. These numerical studies suggest that, while early novel strains of COVID-19 had a tendency toward dramatic takeovers and extinction of ancestral strains, more recent strains have the capacity for co-existence.

The emergence of a virus variant: dynamics of a competition model with cross-immunity time-delay validated by wastewater surveillance data for COVID-19

We consider the dynamics of a virus spreading through a population that produces a mutant strain with the ability to infect individuals that were infected with the established strain. Temporary cross-immunity is included using a time delay, but is found to be a harmless delay. We provide some sufficient conditions that guarantee local and global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the two boundary equilibria when the two strains outcompete one another. It is shown that, due to the immune evasion of the emerging strain, the reproduction number of the emerging strain must be significantly lower than that of the established strain for the local stability of the established-strain-only boundary equilibrium. To analyze the unique coexistence equilibrium we apply a quasi steady-state argument to reduce the full model to a two-dimensional one that exhibits a global asymptotically stable established-strain-only equilibrium or global asymptotically stable coexistence equilibrium. Our results indicate that the basic reproduction numbers of both strains govern the overall dynamics, but in nontrivial ways due to the inclusion of cross-immunity. The model is applied to study the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in the presence of the Alpha variant using wastewater surveillance data from the Deer Island Treatment Plant in Massachusetts, USA.

Attenuation and Degeneration of SARS-CoV-2 Despite Adaptive Evolution

The evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‑CoV‑2) has followed similar trends as other RNA viruses, such as human immunodeficiency virus type 1 and the influenza A virus. Rapid initial diversification was followed by strong competition and a rapid succession of dominant variants. Host-initiated RNA editing has been the primary mechanism for introducing mutations. A significant number of mutations detrimental to viral replication have been quickly purged. Fixed mutations are mostly diversifying mutations selected for host adaptation and immune evasion, with the latter accounting for the majority of the mutations. However, immune evasion often comes at the cost of functionality, and thus, optimal functionality is still far from being accomplished. Instead, selection for antibody-escaping variants and accumulation of near-neutral mutations have led to suboptimal codon usage and reduced replicative capacity, as demonstrated in non-respiratory cell lines. Beneficial adaptation of the virus includes reduced infectivity in lung tissues and increased tropism for the upper airway, resulting in shorter incubation periods, milder diseases, and more efficient transmission between people.