Multilevel cultural evolution: From new theory to practical applications

Exploring the Evolution of Altruistic Punishment with a PDE Model of Cultural Multilevel Selection

Two mechanisms that have been used to study the evolution of cooperative behavior are altruistic punishment, in which cooperative individuals pay additional costs to punish defection, and multilevel selection, in which competition between groups can help to counteract individual-level incentives to cheat. Boyd, Gintis, Bowles, and Richerson have used simulation models of cultural evolution to suggest that altruistic punishment and pairwise group-level competition can work in concert to promote cooperation, even when neither mechanism can do so on its own. In this paper, we formulate a PDE model for multilevel selection motivated by the approach of Boyd and coauthors, modeling individual-level birth-death competition with a replicator equation based on individual payoffs and describing group-level competition with pairwise conflicts based on differences in the average payoffs of the competing groups. Building off of existing PDE models for multilevel selection with frequency-independent group-level competition, we use analytical and numerical techniques to understand how the forms of individual and average payoffs can impact the long-time ability to sustain altruistic punishment in group-structured populations. We find several interesting differences between the behavior of our new PDE model with pairwise group-level competition and existing multilevel PDE models, including the observation that our new model can feature a non-monotonic dependence of the long-time collective payoff on the strength of altruistic punishment. Going forward, our PDE framework can serve as a way to connect and compare disparate approaches for understanding multilevel selection across the literature in evolutionary biology and anthropology.

Multilevel selection on individual and group social behaviour in the wild

How phenotypes are shaped by multilevel selection-the theoretical framework proposing natural selection occurs at more than one level of biological organization-is a classic debate in biology. Though social behaviours are a common theoretical example for multilevel selection, it is unknown if and how multilevel selection acts on sociality in the wild. We studied the relative strength of multilevel selection on both individual behaviour and group social structure, quantified with social networks and 19 years of data from a wild, free-living mammal, the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventer). Contextual analysis (exploring the impact of individual and group social phenotypes on individual fitness, relative to each other) revealed multilevel selection gradients in specific fitness and life history contexts, with selection for group social structure being just as strong, if not stronger, than individual social behaviour. We also found antagonistic multilevel selection gradients within and between levels, potentially explaining why increased sociality is not as beneficial or heritable in this system compared with other social taxa. Thus, the evolutionary dynamics of hierarchical or nested biological traits should be assessed at multiple levels simultaneously to tell a more accurate and comprehensive story. Overall, we provide empirical evidence suggesting that multilevel selection acts on social relationships and structures in the wild and provide direct evidence for a classic, unanswered question in biology.

Minds in movement: embodied cognition in the age of artificial intelligence

This theme issue brings together researchers from diverse fields to assess the current status and future prospects of embodied cognition in the age of generative artificial intelligence. In this introduction, we first clarify our view of embodiment as a potentially unifying concept in the study of cognition, characterizing this as a perspective that questions mind-body dualism and recognizes a profound continuity between sensorimotor action in the world and more abstract forms of cognition. We then consider how this unifying concept is developed and elaborated by the other contributions to this issue, identifying the following two key themes: (i) the role of language in cognition and its entanglement with the body and (ii) bodily mechanisms of interpersonal perception and alignment across the domains of social affiliation, teaching and learning. On balance, we consider that embodied approaches to the study of cognition, culture and evolution remain promising, but will require greater integration across disciplines to fully realize their potential. We conclude by suggesting that researchers will need to be ready and able to meet the various methodological, theoretical and practical challenges this will entail and remain open to encountering markedly different viewpoints about how and why embodiment matters. This article is the part of this theme issue 'Minds in movement: embodied cognition in the age of artificial intelligence'.

Active Inference in Psychology and Psychiatry: Progress to Date?

The free energy principle is a formal theory of adaptive self-organising systems that emerged from statistical thermodynamics, machine learning and theoretical neuroscience and has since been translated into biologically plausible 'process theories' of cognition and behaviour, which fall under the banner of 'active inference'. Despite the promise this theory holds for theorising, research and practical applications in psychology and psychiatry, its impact on these disciplines has only now begun to bear fruit. The aim of this treatment is to consider the extent to which active inference has informed theoretical progress in psychology, before exploring its contributions to our understanding and treatment of psychopathology. Despite facing persistent translational obstacles, progress suggests that active inference has the potential to become a new paradigm that promises to unite psychology's subdisciplines, while readily incorporating the traditionally competing paradigms of evolutionary and developmental psychology. To date, however, progress towards this end has been slow. Meanwhile, the main outstanding question is whether this theory will make a positive difference through applications in clinical psychology, and its sister discipline of psychiatry.

Knowledge sources, narratives, and living in social-ecological systems

Humans exist as part of social-ecological systems (SES) in which biological, physical, chemical, economic, political and other social processes are tightly interwoven. Global change within these systems presents an increasingly untenable situation for long-term human security. Further, knowledge that humans possess about ourselves and SES represents a complex amalgamation of individual and collective factors. Because of various evolutionary pressures, people often reject this complex reality in favor of more simplistic perceptions and explanations. This thought paper offers an overview of how and where people acquire knowledge and how that knowledge acquisition process reflects and influences narratives, which subsequently affect efforts to address challenges in SES. We highlight three narratives as examples of constraints on finding ways forward toward a more resilient future. Our focal narratives include tendencies to conflate tame and wicked problems; to posit a false human-nature duality; and to resist the explanatory evidence from biocultural evolution. We then discuss the human cognitive propensity to create narratives to think about how we might intentionally develop narratives that are more appropriate for living in coevolving SES.

Connecting human behaviour, meaning and nature

Much of the discourse around climate change and the situation of diverse human societies and cultures in the Anthropocene focuses on responding to scientific understanding of the dynamics of the biosphere by adjusting existing institutional and organizational structures. Our emerging scientific understanding of human behaviour and the mechanisms that enable groups to achieve large-scale coordination and cooperation suggests that incrementally adjusting existing institutions and organizations will not be sufficient to confront current global-scale challenges. Specifically, the transaction costs of operating institutions to induce selfish rational actors to consider social welfare in their decision-making are too high. Rather, we highlight the importance of networks of shared stories that become real-imagined orders-that create context, meaning and shared purpose for framing decisions and guiding action. We explore imagined orders that have contributed to bringing global societies to where they are and propose elements of a science-informed imagined order essential to enabling societies to flourish in the Anthropocene biosphere. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.

When expert predictions fail

We examine the opportunities and challenges of expert judgment in the social sciences, scrutinizing the way social scientists make predictions. While social scientists show above-chance accuracy in predicting laboratory-based phenomena, they often struggle to predict real-world societal changes. We argue that most causal models used in social sciences are oversimplified, confuse levels of analysis to which a model applies, misalign the nature of the model with the nature of the phenomena, and fail to consider factors beyond the scientist's pet theory. Taking cues from physical sciences and meteorology, we advocate an approach that integrates broad foundational models with context-specific time series data. We call for a shift in the social sciences towards more precise, daring predictions and greater intellectual humility.

Reducing global inequality increases local cooperation: a simple model of group selection with a global externality

Group-structured models often explain the evolution of prosocial activities in terms of selection acting at both individual and group levels. Such models do not typically consider how individuals' behaviours may have consequences beyond the boundaries of their groups. However, many behaviours affect global environmental variables, including climate change and ecosystem fragility. Against this background, we propose a simple model of multi-level selection in the presence of global externalities. In our model, group members can cooperate in a social dilemma with the potential for group-level benefits. The actions of cooperators also have global consequences, which can be positive (a global good) or negative (a global bad). We use simulations to consider scenarios in which the effects of the global externality either are evenly distributed, or have stronger influences on either the rich or the poor. We find that the global externality promotes the evolution of cooperation only if it either disproportionately benefits the poor or disproportionately reduces the payoffs of the rich. If the global externality primarily harms the poor, it undermines the evolution of prosocial behaviour. Understanding this effect is important given concerns that poorer households are more vulnerable to climate change impacts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability

The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Climate change adaptation and the back of the invisible hand

A good deal of contemporary work in cultural evolutionary theory focuses on the adaptive significance of culture. In this paper, we make the case that scientifically accurate and politically feasible responses to the climate crisis require a complex understanding of human cultural practices of niche construction that moves beyond the adaptive significance of culture. We develop this thesis in two related ways. First, we argue that cumulative cultural practices of niche construction can generate stable equilibria and runaway selection processes that result in long-term existential risks within and across cultural groups. We dub this the back of the invisible hand. Second, we argue that the ability of cultural groups to innovate technological solutions to environmental problems is highly constrained in ways that are exacerbated by sustained intergroup conflict, inequality and by inherently unpredictable cascades in climate change and human migration patterns. After developing these theoretical points about human cultural practices of niche construction in detail, we conclude our discussion with some tentative practical suggestions about the way that cultural evolutionary history can more fruitfully be used in efforts to remit the climate crisis and contribute to sustainable practices of human climate change adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

Theory of collective mind

Theory of mind research has traditionally focused on the ascription of mental states to a single individual. Here, we introduce a theory of collective mind: the ascription of a unified mental state to a group of agents with convergent experiences. Rather than differentiation between one's personal perspective and that of another agent, a theory of collective mind requires perspectival unification across agents. We review recent scholarship across the cognitive sciences concerning the conceptual foundations of collective mind representations and their empirical induction through the synchronous arrival of shared information. Research suggests that representations of a collective mind cause psychological amplification of co-attended stimuli, create relational bonds, and increase cooperation, among co-attendees.

Machine culture

The ability of humans to create and disseminate culture is often credited as the single most important factor of our success as a species. In this Perspective, we explore the notion of 'machine culture', culture mediated or generated by machines. We argue that intelligent machines simultaneously transform the cultural evolutionary processes of variation, transmission and selection. Recommender algorithms are altering social learning dynamics. Chatbots are forming a new mode of cultural transmission, serving as cultural models. Furthermore, intelligent machines are evolving as contributors in generating cultural traits-from game strategies and visual art to scientific results. We provide a conceptual framework for studying the present and anticipated future impact of machines on cultural evolution, and present a research agenda for the study of machine culture.