Benefits and trade-offs of optimizing global land use for food, water, and carbon

Impacts of commodity prices and governance on the expansion of tropical agricultural frontiers

Deforestation in the tropics remains a significant global challenge linked to carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. Agriculture, forestry, wildfires, and urbanization have been repeatedly identified as main drivers of tropical deforestation. Understanding the underlying mechanisms behind these direct causes is crucial to navigate the multiple tradeoffs between competing forest uses, such as food and biomass production (SDG 2), climate action (SDG 13), and life on land (SDG 15). This paper develops and implements a global-scale empirical approach to quantify two key factors affecting land use decisions at tropical forest frontiers: agricultural commodity prices and national governance. It relies on data covering the period 2004-2015 from multiple public sources, aggregated to countries and agro-ecological zones. Our analysis confirms the persistent influence of commodity prices on agricultural land expansion, especially in forest-abundant regions. Economic and environmental governance quality co-determines processes of expansion and contraction of agricultural land in the tropics, yet at much smaller magnitudes than other drivers. We derive land supply elasticities for direct use in standard economic impact assessment models and demonstrate that our results make a difference in a Computable General Equilibrium framework.

Exploring the supply and demand imbalance of carbon and carbon-related ecosystem services for dual‑carbon goal ecological management in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt

The measurement of carbon and carbon-related ecosystem services (CCESs) has garnered considerable global attention, primarily due to dual‑carbon goals, which are crucial for the rational allocating of ecosystem service (ES) resources and the enhancement of terrestrial carbon sinks. This study developed a novel research framework on CCESs to quantitatively measure carbon storage (CS), food production (FS), habitat quality (HQ), soil conservation (SC), and water yield (WY), and examined the spatiotemporal patterns of the supply-demand and trade-off/synergy processes related to CCESs in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt (HREEB). The findings are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the supply-demand of the CCESs generally increased, except for carbon storage and food demand. Overall, the supply level of the CCESs exceeds the demand level, with a median ratio of supply and demand ratio (ESDR) of 1.13. (2) During the study period, the synergy relationship of the CCESs is mainly determined by the supply side of the CS-HQ and CS-SC, while on the demand side, it is determined by the CD- FD. And the ESDR of all C-related ecosystem services showed a significant synergy strengthening with CS in the HREEB. (3) Spatially, "high-low" spatial matching of the ESDR decreased, suggesting a gradual reduction in the spatial mismatch of CCESs. (4) We identified seven ecological functional zones and proposed corresponding strategies for promoting ecological management. Our research emphasized the spatiotemporal patterns of supply and demand imbalance in CCESs and the spatial optimization paths of trade-offs/synergies, providing valuable insights for achieving regional dual‑carbon goals.