A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?

Binary climate data visuals amplify perceived impact of climate change

For much of the global population, climate change appears as a slow, gradual shift in daily weather. This leads many to perceive its impacts as minor and results in apathy (the 'boiling frog' effect). How can we convey the urgency of the crisis when its impacts appear so subtle? Here, through a series of large-scale cognitive experiments (N = 799), we find that presenting people with binary climate data (for example, lake freeze history) significantly increases the perceived impact of climate change (Cohen's d = 0.40, 95% confidence interval 0.26-0.54) compared with continuous data (for example, mean temperature). Computational modelling and follow-up experiments (N = 398) suggest that binary data enhance perceived impact by creating an 'illusion' of sudden shifts. Crucially, our approach does not involve selective data presentation but rather compares different datasets that reflect equivalent trends in climate change over time. These findings, robustly replicated across multiple experiments, provide a cognitive basis for the 'boiling frog' effect and offer a psychologically grounded approach for policymakers and educators to improve climate change communication while maintaining scientific accuracy.

Simple and cheap CRISPR/Cas12a biosensor based on plug-and-play of DNA aptamers for the detection of endocrine-disrupting compounds

Endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs) are widely distributed in the environment. Here, we present a CRISPR/Cas12a (CAS) biosensor based on DNA aptamers for point-of-care detection of EDCs. Two typical EDCs, 17β-estradiol (E2) and bisphenol A (BPA), were selected to be detected by the CAS biosensors via the plug-and-play of their DNA aptamers. The results indicated that the performance of the CAS biosensors can be well regulated by controlling the trans-cleavage activity of Cas12a on a single-stranded DNA reporter and optimizing the sequence and ratio of DNA aptamer and activator DNA. Ultimately, two reliable and specific biosensors were developed, with the linear range and limit of detection of 0.2-25 nM and 0.08 nM for E2 and of 0.1-250 nM and 0.06 nM for BPA, respectively. Compared to the existing detection methods, the CAS biosensors showed higher reliability and sensitivity with simple operation, short detection time, and no costly equipment.

Global-Scale Synchronization in the Meteorological Data: A Vectorial Analysis That Includes Higher-Order Differences

To examine the evidence of global warming, in recent years, there has been a growing interest in the statistical analysis of time-dependent meteorological data. In this paper, for 116 observational stations in the world, sequential variations of the monthly distributions of meteorological data are analyzed vectorially. For specific monthly data, temperatures and precipitations are chosen, both of which are averaged over three decades. Climate change can be revealed through the intersecting angle between two 33-dimensional vectors being composed with monthly mean values. Subsequently, the angle data for the entire stations are analyzed statistically and compared between the former (1931–1980) and the latter (1951–2010) periods. Irrespective of the period and the hemisphere, the variation of the angles is found to show the exponential growth as a function of their latitudes. Furthermore, consistent with other studies, this trend is shown to become stronger in the latter period, indicating that the so-called snow/ice-albedo feedback occurs. In contrast to the temperatures, for the precipitations, no significant correlation is found between the angle and the latitude. To examine the albedo effect in more detail, a regional analysis for 75 stations in Japan is carried out as well. Numerical results show that the effect is significant even for the relatively narrow latitudinal range (19%) of the hemisphere. Finally, a synchronization of the monthly patterns of temperatures is given between the northern district of Japan and both North America and Eastern Europe.

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Effect of permafrost properties on gas hydrate petroleum system in the Qilian Mountains, Qinghai, Northwest China

The gas hydrate petroleum system in the permafrost of the Qilian Mountains, which exists as an epigenetic hydrocarbon reservoir above a deep-seated hydrocarbon reservoir, has been dynamic since the end of the Late Pleistocene because of climate change. The permafrost limits the occurrence of gas hydrate reservoirs by changing the pressure-temperature (P-T) conditions, and it affects the migration of the underlying hydrocarbon gas because of its strong sealing ability. In this study, we reconstructed the permafrost structure of the Qilian Mountains using a combination of methods and measured methane permeability in ice-bearing sediment permafrost. A relationship between the ice saturation of permafrost and methane permeability was established, which permitted the quantitative evaluation of the sealing ability of permafrost with regard to methane migration. The test results showed that when ice saturation is >80%, methane gas can be completely sealed within the permafrost. Based on the permafrost properties and genesis of shallow gas, we suggest that a shallow "gas pool" occurred in the gas hydrate petroleum system in the Qilian Mountains. Its formation was related to a metastable gas hydrate reservoir controlled by the P-T conditions, sealing ability of the permafrost, fault system, and climatic warming. From an energy perspective, the increasing volume of the gas pool means that it will likely become a shallow gas resource available for exploitation; however, for the environment, the gas pool is an underground "time bomb" that is a potential source of greenhouse gas.

Aptamer-based optical biosensor for rapid and sensitive detection of 17β-estradiol in water samples

Required routine monitoring of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) in water samples, as posed by EPA Unregulated Contaminant Regulation (UCMR3), demands for cost-effective, reliable and sensitive EDC detection methods. This study reports a reusable evanescent wave aptamer-based biosensor for rapid, sensitive and highly selective detection of 17β-estradiol, an EDC that is frequently detected in environmental water samples. In this system, the capture molecular, β-estradiol 6-(O-carboxy-methyl)oxime-BSA, was covalently immobilized onto the optical fiber sensor surface. With an indirect competitive detection mode, samples containing different concentrations of 17β-estradiol were premixed with a given concentration of fluorescence-labeled DNA aptamer, which highly specifically binds to 17β-estradiol. Then, the sample mixture is pumped to the sensor surface, and a higher concentration of 17β-estradiol leads to less fluorescence-labeled DNA aptamer bound to the sensor surface and thus to lower fluorescence signal. The dose-response curve of 17β-estradiol was established and a detection limit was determined as 2.1 nM (0.6 ng mL(-1)). The high specificity and selectivity of the sensor were demonstrated by evaluating its response to a number of potentially interfering EDCs. Potential interference of real environmental sample matrix was assessed by spiked samples in several tertiary wastewater effluents. The sensor can be regenerated with a 0.5% SDS solution (pH 1.9) over tens of times without significant deterioration of the sensor performance. This portable sensor system can be potentially applied for on-site real-time inexpensive and easy-to-use monitoring of 17β-estradiol in environmental samples such as effluents or water bodies.

MOLECULAR CHARACTERIZATION OF THE LECTIN, BRYOHEALIN, INVOLVED IN PROTOPLAST REGENERATION OF THE MARINE ALGA BRYOPSIS PLUMOSA (CHLOROPHYTA)(1)

When a coenocytic cell of the green alga Bryopsis plumosa (Hudson) C. Agardh was cut open and the cell contents expelled, the cell organelles agglutinated rapidly in seawater to form protoplasts. This process was mediated by a lectin, Bryohealin. The full sequence of the cDNA encoding Bryohealin was obtained, which consisted of 1,101 base pairs (bp), with 24 bp of 5' untranslated region (UTR) and 201 bp of 3' UTR. It had an open reading frame (ORF) of 771 bp encoding 257 amino acid residues. A signal peptide consisted of 22 amino acids presented before the start codon of Bryohealin, indicating that this lectin was a vacuolar (storage) protein. The C-terminal sequence of Bryohealin was composed of antibiotic domains, suggesting that this lectin could perform two functions: (i) aggregation of cell organelles in seawater and (ii) protection from bacterial contamination for successful protoplast regeneration. The BLAST search result showed that Bryohealin had little sequence homology with any known plant lectins, but rather resembled animal lectins with fucolectin domains. The expression of recombinant Bryohealin (rBryohealin) was obtained in the Escherichia coli system.

Changing heat-related mortality in the United States

Heat is the primary weather-related cause of death in the United States. Increasing heat and humidity, at least partially related to anthropogenic climate change, suggest that a long-term increase in heat-related mortality could occur. We calculated the annual excess mortality on days when apparent temperatures--an index that combines air temperature and humidity--exceeded a threshold value for 28 major metropolitan areas in the United States from 1964 through 1998. Heat-related mortality rates declined significantly over time in 19 of the 28 cities. For the 28-city average, there were 41.0 +/- 4.8 (mean +/- SE) excess heat-related deaths per year (per standard million) in the 1960s and 1970s, 17.3 +/- 2.7 in the 1980s, and 10.5 +/- 2.0 in the 1990s. In the 1960s and 1970s, almost all study cities exhibited mortality significantly above normal on days with high apparent temperatures. During the 1980s, many cities, particularly those in the typically hot and humid southern United States, experienced no excess mortality. In the 1990s, this effect spread northward across interior cities. This systematic desensitization of the metropolitan populace to high heat and humidity over time can be attributed to a suite of technologic, infrastructural, and biophysical adaptations, including increased availability of air conditioning.

Observations of a "weekend effect" in diurnal temperature range

Using surface measurements of maximum and minimum temperatures from the Global Daily Climatological Network data set, we find evidence of a weekly cycle in diurnal temperature range (DTR) for many stations in the United States, Mexico, Japan, and China. The "weekend effect," which we define as the average DTR for Saturday through Monday minus the average DTR for Wednesday through Friday, can be as large as 0.5 K, similar to the magnitude of observed long-term trends in DTR. This weekend effect has a distinct large-scale pattern that has changed only slightly over time, but its sign is not the same in all locations. The station procedures and the statistical robustness of both the individual station data and the patterns of DTR differences are thoroughly examined. We conclude that the weekend effect is a real short time scale and large spatial scale geophysical phenomenon, which is necessarily human in origin. We thus provide strong evidence of an anthropogenic link to DTR, an important climate indicator. Several possible anthropogenic mechanisms are discussed; we speculate that aerosol-cloud interactions are the most likely cause of this weekend effect, but we do not rule out others.

Climate change and plant disease management

▪ Abstract  Research on impacts of climate change on plant diseases has been limited, with most work concentrating on the effects of a single atmospheric constituent or meteorological variable on the host, pathogen, or the interaction of the two under controlled conditions. Results indicate that climate change could alter stages and rates of development of the pathogen, modify host resistance, and result in changes in the physiology of host-pathogen interactions. The most likely consequences are shifts in the geographical distribution of host and pathogen and altered crop losses, caused in part by changes in the efficacy of control strategies. Recent developments in experimental and modeling techniques offer considerable promise for developing an improved capability for climate change impact assessment and mitigation. Compared with major technological, environmental, and socioeconomic changes affecting agricultural production during the next century, climate change may be less important; it will, however, add another layer of complexity and uncertainty onto a system that is already exceedingly difficult to manage on a sustainable basis. Intensified research on climate change-related issues could result in improved understanding and management of plant diseases in the face of current and future climate extremes.

Climate forcings in the industrial era

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.