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Integrated population models: powerful methods to embed individual processes in population dynamics models. Ecology 2019; 100:e02715. [DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2715] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2018] [Revised: 11/05/2018] [Accepted: 01/02/2019] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
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Pakanen VM, Aikio S, Luukkonen A, Koivula K. Grazed wet meadows are sink habitats for the southern dunlin ( Calidris alpina schinzii) due to nest trampling by cattle. Ecol Evol 2016; 6:7176-7187. [PMID: 28725390 PMCID: PMC5513266 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.2369] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2016] [Revised: 07/14/2016] [Accepted: 07/18/2016] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The effect of habitat management is commonly evaluated by measuring population growth, which does not distinguish changes in reproductive success from changes in survival or the effects of immigration or emigration. Management has rarely been evaluated considering complete life cycle of the target organisms, including also possible negative impacts from management. We evaluated the effectiveness of cattle grazing in the restoration of coastal meadows as a breeding habitat for small and medium‐sized ground‐nesting birds by examining the size and demography of a southern dunlin (Calidris alpina schinzii) breeding population. Using a stochastic renesting model that includes within‐season variation in breeding parameters, we evaluated the effect of grazing time and stocking rates on reproduction. The census data indicated that the population was stable when nest trampling was prevented, but detailed demographic models showed that the population on managed meadows was a sink that persisted by attracting immigrants. Even small reductions in reproductive success caused by trampling were detrimental to long‐term viability. We suggest that the best management strategy is to postpone grazing to after the 19th of June, which is about three weeks later than what is optimal from the farmer's point of view. The differing results from the two evaluation approaches warn against planning and evaluating management only based on census population size and highlight the need to consider target‐specific life history characteristics and demography. Even though grazing management is crucial for creating and maintaining suitable habitats, we found that it was insufficient in maintaining a viable population without additional measures that increase nest success. In the presently studied case and in populations with similar breeding cycles, impacts from nest trampling can be avoided by starting grazing when about 70% of the breeding season has past.
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Affiliation(s)
- Veli-Matti Pakanen
- Department of Ecology University of Oulu PO Box 3000 FIN-90014 Oulu Finland
| | - Sami Aikio
- Department of Ecology University of Oulu PO Box 3000 FIN-90014 Oulu Finland.,Finnish Museum of Natural History Botany Unit University of Helsinki PO Box 7 FIN-00014 Helsinki Finland
| | - Aappo Luukkonen
- Department of Ecology University of Oulu PO Box 3000 FIN-90014 Oulu Finland
| | - Kari Koivula
- Department of Ecology University of Oulu PO Box 3000 FIN-90014 Oulu Finland
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Dahlgren DK, Guttery MR, Messmer TA, Caudill D, Dwayne Elmore R, Chi R, Koons DN. Evaluating vital rate contributions to greater sage‐grouse population dynamics to inform conservation. Ecosphere 2016. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- David K. Dahlgren
- Jack H. Berryman InstituteDepartment of Wildland ResourcesUtah State University Logan Utah 84322‐5230 USA
| | - Michael R. Guttery
- Jack H. Berryman InstituteDepartment of Wildland ResourcesUtah State University Logan Utah 84322‐5230 USA
| | - Terry A. Messmer
- Jack H. Berryman InstituteDepartment of Wildland ResourcesUtah State University Logan Utah 84322‐5230 USA
| | - Danny Caudill
- Fish and Wildlife Research InstituteFlorida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission Gainesville Florida 32601‐9044 USA
| | - Robert Dwayne Elmore
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and ManagementOklahoma State University Stillwater Oklahoma 74078‐6013 USA
| | - Renee Chi
- U.S. Department of InteriorBureau of Land ManagementUtah State Office Salt Lake City Utah 84101‐1345 USA
| | - David N. Koons
- Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology CenterUtah State University Logan Utah 84322‐5230 USA
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Townsend AK, Cooch EG, Sillett TS, Rodenhouse NL, Holmes RT, Webster MS. The interacting effects of food, spring temperature, and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2016; 22:544-555. [PMID: 26242236 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13053] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2015] [Accepted: 07/10/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Although long-distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double-brooded long-distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark-recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late-season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black-throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea K Townsend
- Department of Biology, Hamilton College, Clinton, NY, 13323, USA
- Migratory Bird Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Washington, DC, 20013, USA
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology & Department of Neurobiology & Behavior, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA
| | - Evan G Cooch
- Department of Natural Resources, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA
| | - T Scott Sillett
- Migratory Bird Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Washington, DC, 20013, USA
| | | | - Richard T Holmes
- Department of Biological Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, 03755, USA
| | - Michael S Webster
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology & Department of Neurobiology & Behavior, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA
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Daut EF, Lahodny G, Peterson MJ, Ivanek R. Interacting Effects of Newcastle Disease Transmission and Illegal Trade on a Wild Population of White-Winged Parakeets in Peru: A Modeling Approach. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0147517. [PMID: 26816214 PMCID: PMC4731398 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0147517] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2015] [Accepted: 01/05/2016] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Illegal wildlife-pet trade can threaten wildlife populations directly from overharvest, but also indirectly as a pathway for introduction of infectious diseases. This study evaluated consequences of a hypothetical introduction of Newcastle disease (ND) into a wild population of Peru's most trafficked psittacine, the white-winged parakeet (Brotogeris versicolurus), through release of infected confiscated individuals. We developed two mathematical models that describe ND transmission and the influence of illegal harvest in a homogeneous (model 1) and age-structured population of parakeets (model 2). Infection transmission dynamics and harvest were consistent for all individuals in model 1, which rendered it mathematically more tractable compared to the more complex, age-structured model 2 that separated the host population into juveniles and adults. We evaluated the interaction of ND transmission and harvest through changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) and short-term host population dynamics. Our findings demonstrated that ND introduction would likely provoke considerable disease-related mortality, up to 24% population decline in two years, but high harvest rates would dampen the magnitude of the outbreak. Model 2 produced moderate differences in disease dynamics compared to model 1 (R0 = 3.63 and 2.66, respectively), but highlighted the importance of adult disease dynamics in diminishing the epidemic potential. Therefore, we suggest that future studies should use a more realistic, age-structured model. Finally, for the presumptive risk that illegal trade of white-winged parakeets could introduce ND into wild populations, our results suggest that while high harvest rates may have a protective effect on the population by reducing virus transmission, the combined effects of high harvest and disease-induced mortality may threaten population survival. These results capture the complexity and consequences of the interaction between ND transmission and harvest in a wild parrot population and highlight the importance of preventing illegal trade.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth F. Daut
- Schubot Exotic Bird Health Center, Department of Veterinary Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
| | - Glenn Lahodny
- Department of Mathematics, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
- Department of Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
| | - Markus J. Peterson
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, Texas, United States of America
| | - Renata Ivanek
- Department of Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
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Understanding how lake populations of arctic char are structured and function with special consideration of the potential effects of climate change: a multi-faceted approach. Oecologia 2014; 176:81-94. [PMID: 24969617 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-014-2993-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2013] [Accepted: 06/04/2014] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Size dimorphism in fish populations, both its causes and consequences, has been an area of considerable focus; however, uncertainty remains whether size dimorphism is dynamic or stabilizing and about the role of exogenous factors. Here, we explored patterns among empirical vital rates, population structure, abundance and trend, and predicted the effects of climate change on populations of arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) in two lakes. Both populations cycle dramatically between dominance by small (≤300 mm) and large (>300 mm) char. Apparent survival (Φ) and specific growth rates (SGR) were relatively high (40-96%; SGR range 0.03-1.5%) and comparable to those of conspecifics at lower latitudes. Climate change scenarios mimicked observed patterns of warming and resulted in temperatures closer to optimal for char growth (15.15 °C) and a longer growing season. An increase in consumption rates (28-34%) under climate change scenarios led to much greater growth rates (23-34%). Higher growth rates predicted under climate change resulted in an even greater predicted amplitude of cycles in population structure as well as an increase in reproductive output (Ro) and decrease in generation time (Go). Collectively, these results indicate arctic char populations (not just individuals) are extremely sensitive to small changes in the number of ice-free days. We hypothesize years with a longer growing season, predicted to occur more often under climate change, produce elevated growth rates of small char and act in a manner similar to a "resource pulse," allowing a sub-set of small char to "break through," thus setting the cycle in population structure.
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Wilson HM, Flint PL, Powell AN, Grand JB, Moran CL. Population ecology of breeding Pacific common eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. WILDLIFE MONOGRAPHS 2012. [DOI: 10.1002/wmon.8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Schorr RA. Using a temporal symmetry model to assess population change and recruitment in the Preble's meadow jumping mouse (Zapus hudsonius preblei). J Mammal 2012. [DOI: 10.1644/11-mamm-a-407.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
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Pakanen VM, Rönkä A, Belda EJ, Luukkonen A, Kvist L, Koivula K. Impact of dispersal status on estimates of local population growth rates in a Temminck's stint Calidris temminckii population. OIKOS 2010. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18320.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Estimation of survival rate and extinction probability for stage-structured populations with overlapping life stages. POPUL ECOL 2010. [DOI: 10.1007/s10144-010-0194-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
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Veran S, Beissinger SR. Demographic origins of skewed operational and adult sex ratios: perturbation analyses of two-sex models. Ecol Lett 2009; 12:129-43. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01268.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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PRADEL R, HENRY PY. Potential contributions of capture–recapture to the estimation of population growth rate in restoration projects. ECOSCIENCE 2007. [DOI: 10.2980/1195-6860(2007)14[432:pcoctt]2.0.co;2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
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Reed AW, Kaufman GA, Sandercock BK. Demographic Response of a Grassland Rodent to Environmental Variability. J Mammal 2007. [DOI: 10.1644/06-mamm-a-109r.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
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Peery MZ, Becker BH, Beissinger SR. Combining demographic and count-based approaches to identify source-sink dynamics of a threatened seabird. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2006; 16:1516-28. [PMID: 16937815 DOI: 10.1890/1051-0761(2006)016[1516:cdacat]2.0.co;2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Identifying source-sink dynamics is of fundamental importance for conservation but is often limited by an inability to determine how immigration and emigration influence population processes. We demonstrate two ways to assess the role of immigration on population processes without directly observing individuals dispersing from one population to another and apply these methods to a population of Marbled Murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in California (USA). In the first method, the rate of immigration (i) is estimated by subtracting local recruitment (recruitment from within the population due to reproduction) estimated with demographic data from total recruitment (f; recruitment from within the population plus recruitment from other populations) estimated using temporal symmetry mark-recapture models developed by R. Pradel. The second method compares population growth rates estimated with temporal symmetry models (lambdaTS) and/or population growth rates estimated from counts of individuals over multiple sampling periods (lambdaC) with growth estimates from a stage-structured projection matrix model (lambdaM). Both lambdaTS and lambdaC incorporate all demographic processes affecting population change (birth, death, immigration, and emigration), whereas matrix models are usually constructed without incorporating immigration. Thus, if lambdaTS and lambdaC are > or = 1 and lambdaM < 1, the population is sustained by immigration and is considered to be a sink. Using the first method, recruitment estimated with temporal symmetry models was high (f= 0.182, SE = 0.058), the mean adult birth rate, as estimated using the ratio of juveniles to > or = 1 year old individuals (observed during ship-based surveys) was low (bA = 0.039, SE = 0.014), and immigration was 0.160 (SE = 0.057). Using the second method, murrelet numbers in central California were stable (lambdaC = 1.058, SE = 0.047; lambdaTS = 1.064, SE = 0.033), but were projected to decline 9.5% annually in the absence of immigration (lambdaM = 0.905, SE = 0.053). Our results suggest that Marbled Murrelets in central California represent a sink population that is stable but would decline in the absence of immigration from larger populations to the north. However, the extent to which modeled immigration is due to permanent recruitment or temporarily dispersing individuals that simply mask population declines is uncertain.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Zachariah Peery
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley 94720-3114, USA.
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Lampila S, Orell M, Belda E, Koivula K. Importance of adult survival, local recruitment and immigration in a declining boreal forest passerine, the willow tit Parus montanus. Oecologia 2006; 148:405-13. [PMID: 16514536 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-006-0386-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2005] [Accepted: 01/26/2006] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Population growth rate (lambda) and its components (adult survival, local recruitment, immigration and their relative contributions to lambda) were studied in the declining willow tit Parus montanus in Northern Finland. Capture-recapture models for open populations were used to estimate the population parameters and their process variation. Adult survival was fairly high with low variation (0.593, CV=0.067). As expected, local recruitment was lower and more variable (0.063, CV=0.610). During the 12-year study, the population growth rate averaged to one (0.988, CV=0.197; calculated as [see text]. However, if the present processes continue, population projections show that the population is likely to decline. There was considerable temporal variation in the relative contributions of demographic parameters to lambda. In all years, adult survival had the highest relative contribution (mean 64%) to the population growth rate and it was the least variable trait. Immigration had a higher relative contribution (22%) to lambda than local recruitment (14%). Based on the results for the contributions to lambda, the main conservation concern for willow tits is adult survival. Due to low variation, adult survival may be difficult to enhance, but at least it should be prevented from declining. High stochasticity in local recruitment and immigration is probably an inherent characteristic of highly seasonal environments, making these traits difficult to address for conservation practices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Satu Lampila
- Department of Biology, University of Oulu, P. O. Box 3000, 90014, Oulu, Finland.
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Beissinger SR, Walters JR, Catanzaro DG, Smith KG, Dunning, JB, Haig SM, Noon BR, Stith BM. Modeling Approaches in Avian Conservation and the Role of Field Biologists. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2006. [DOI: 10.2307/40166820] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Brongo LL, Mitchell MS, Grand JB. LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF SURVIVAL, FERTILITY, AND POPULATION GROWTH RATE OF BLACK BEARS IN NORTH CAROLINA. J Mammal 2005. [DOI: 10.1644/1545-1542(2005)86[1029:laosfa]2.0.co;2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
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Boulanger J, Himmer S, Swan C. Monitoring of grizzly bear population trends and demography using DNA mark–recapture methods in the Owikeno Lake area of British Columbia. CAN J ZOOL 2004. [DOI: 10.1139/z04-100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
We used DNA sampling and mark–recapture modeling to estimate population trend(s), population size, and the demographic response of a coastal British Columbia grizzly bear population (Ursus arctos L., 1758) to low salmon escapement levels from 1998 to 2002. We contrasted the demography of three sampling areas in response to temporal and spatial variation in salmon availability. Population trend (λ) estimates suggested that salmon availability was too low in the first 2 years of the study to sustain grizzly bear populations. One of the sampling areas exhibited higher levels of salmon availability in later years of the study, leading to increased rates of addition. Apparent survival rates increased in all areas potentially as a result of increased salmon availability. Joint interpretation of λ and superpopulation estimates allowed for the assessment of whether salmon availability levels were high enough to sustain current population sizes of grizzly bears on salmon streams. This study illustrates how joint modeling of separate sampling areas can be used to assess spatial variation in population demography and population trends, as well as increase precision of estimates for individual sampling areas. It also illustrates how DNA mark–recapture can be used as a methodology to explore the effects of changes in environmental conditions on population demography and population trend of grizzly bears or of other wildlife species.
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