Age and prognosis in patients with pancreatic cancer: a population-based study

Epidemiology of cancer in older adults: a systematic review of age-related differences in solid malignancies treatment

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We examined the latest epidemiological research on age-related differences in cancer treatment and selected outcomes, among patients with cancer aged 60 and above in comparison to younger patients.

RECENT FINDINGS

Colorectal, pancreatic and lung cancers were studied most often. Most studies were conducted in Europe or the United States of America (USA) within single centers. For unselected patients, older patients receive less treatment, and their survival, regardless of the metric used (cancer-specific survival or overall survival), was poorer than that of middle-aged patients. Age-related differences in treatment and outcomes were more pronounced in patients aged over 80 years. However, among patients selected for treatment, complications, adverse events rates and survival probabilities were comparable between older and younger patients. Treatment differences, especially the omission of therapy, were often smaller for good prognosis cancer types. The likelihood of receiving treatment decreased as age increases, regardless of the cancer types, treatment, countries and setting. More research on treatment in older patients with cancer, especially the frailest and the oldest, is urgently needed as there is still a lack of data to tailor treatment.

A logistic regression model to predict long-term survival for borderline resectable pancreatic cancer patients with upfront surgery

BACKGROUND

The machine learning model, which has been widely applied in prognosis assessment, can comprehensively evaluate patient status for accurate prognosis classification. There still has been a debate about which predictive strategy is better in patients with borderline resectable pancreatic cancer (BRPC). In the present study, we establish a logistic regression model, aiming to predict long-term survival and identify related prognostic factors in patients with BRPC who underwent upfront surgery.

METHODS

Medical records of patients with BRPC who underwent upfront surgery with portal vein resection and reconstruction from Jan. 2011 to Dec. 2020 were reviewed. Based on postoperative overall survival (OS), patients were divided into the short-term group (≤ 2 years) and the long-term group (> 2 years). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to compare perioperative variables and long-term prognoses between groups to identify related independent prognostic factors. All patients are randomly divided into the training set and the validation set at a 7:3 ratio. The logistic regression model was established and evaluated for accuracy through the above variables in the training set and the validation set, respectively, and was visualized by Nomograms. Meanwhile, the model was further verified and compared for accuracy, the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), and calibration analysis. Then, we plotted and sorted perioperative variables by SHAP value to identify the most important variables. The first 4 most important variables were compared with the above independent prognostic factors. Finally, other models including support vector machines (SVM), random forest, decision tree, and XGBoost were also constructed using the above 4 variables. 10-fold stratified cross-validation and the AUC of ROC were performed to compare accuracy between models.

RESULTS

104 patients were enrolled in the study, and the median OS was 15.5 months, the 0.5-, 1-, and 2- years OS were 81.7%, 57.7%, and 30.8%, respectively. In the long-term group (n = 32) and short-term group (n = 72), the overall median survival time and the 1-, 2-, 3- years overall survival were 38 months, 100%, 100%, 61.3% and 10 months, 38.9%, 0%, 0%, respectively. 4 variables, including age, vascular invasion length, vascular morphological malformation, and local lymphadenopathy were confirmed as independent risk factors between the two groups following univariate and multivariate analysis. The AUC between the training set (n = 72) and the validation set (n = 32) were 0.881 and 0.875. SHAP value showed that the above variables were the first 4 most important. The AUC following 10-fold stratified cross-validation in the logistic regression (0.864) is better than SVM (0.693), random forest (0.789), decision tree (0.790), and XGBoost (0.726).

CONCLUSION

Age, vascular invasion length, vascular morphological malformation, and local lymphadenopathy were independent risk factors for long-term survival of BRPC patients with upfront surgery. The logistic regression model plays a predictive role in long-term survival and may further assist surgeons in deciding the treatment option for BRPC patients.

Outcomes After Multimodality Treatment of Pancreatic Cancer in an Unselected Single-Center Cohort

Background

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remains a lethal and rarely resectable malignancy. Here we explore the outcomes of surgery, as compared to definitive radiotherapy (dRT) or systemic therapy only in PDAC.

Methods

Pancreatic surgery and radiotherapy in Southwest Finland have been centralized to Turku University Hospital. Previously validated population-based electronic health records database was searched for all unselected PDAC patients from the years 2009-2019. Main outcome was median overall survival (mOS). Demographics, pathology, surgery, and oncological treatment data were collected.

Results

We identified 1006 patients with PDAC, 49% male, median age 71 years and 77% presenting with metastatic disease. In total, 405 patients were treated; 92 resected, 26 dRT without resection and 287 systemic therapy only. mOS was 34.6 months for resected, 26.7 months for dRT, and 7.5 months for systemic therapy patients. Among the 88 patients with locally advanced inoperable PDAC, dRT was independently associated with longer mOS (26.7 months) as compared to systemic therapy only (mOS 10.6 months). Among the 287 patients treated with systemic therapy only, combination chemotherapy was independently associated with longer mOS (11.6 months) as compared to gemcitabine-monotherapy (6.8 months). In patients progressing to second-line systemic treatment after gemcitabine failure, mOS was the same (5.0 months) with single or combination regimens.

Conclusion

Surgery remains the only curative approach for PDAC. In locally advanced PDAC, dRT was associated with longer survival as compared to systemic therapy only. Concerning first-line systemic therapy, our results support the use of combination chemotherapy over single-agent therapy.

Characteristics Associated With Survival in Surgically Nonresected Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma in the Military Health System

OBJECTIVES

Pancreatic cancer is often diagnosed at advanced stages with high-case fatality. Many tumors are not surgically resectable. We aimed to identify features associated with survival in patients with surgically nonresected pancreatic cancer in the Military Health System.

METHODS

We used the Military Cancer Epidemiology database to identify the Department of Defense beneficiaries aged 18 and older diagnosed with a primary pancreatic adenocarcinoma between January 1998 and December 2014 who did not receive oncologic surgery as treatment. We used Cox Proportional Hazard regression with stepwise procedures to select the sociodemographic and clinical characteristics related to 2-year overall survival, expressed as adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% CIs.

RESULTS

Among 1148 patients with surgically nonresected pancreatic cancer, sex, race-ethnicity, marital status, and socioeconomic indicators were not selected in association with survival. A higher comorbidity count (aHR 1.30, 95% CI: 1.06-1.59 for 5 vs. 0), jaundice at diagnosis (aHR 1.57, 95% CI: 1.33-1.85 vs. no), tumor grade G3 or G4 (aHR 1.32, 95% CI: 1.05-1.67 vs. G1/G2), tumor location in pancreas tail (aHR 1.49, 95% CI: 1.22-1.83 vs. head) or body (aHR 1.30, 95% CI: 1.04-1.62 vs. head), and metastases were associated with survival. Patients receiving chemotherapy (aHR 0.66, 95% CI: 0.57-0.76) had better survival compared with no treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

In a comprehensive health system, sociodemographic characteristics were not related to survival in surgically nonresected pancreatic cancer. This implicates access to care in reducing survival disparities in advanced pancreatic cancer and emphasizes the importance of treating patients based on clinical features.

LASSO-derived prognostic model predicts cancer-specific survival in advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma over 50 years of age: a retrospective study of SEER database research

Background

This study aimed to develop a prognostic model for patients with advanced ductal adenocarcinoma aged ≥50 years.

Methods

Patient information was extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression analysis was performed to screen the model variables. Cases from Nanchang Central Hospital were collected for external validation. The new nomogram and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) criteria were evaluated using integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification index (NRI) indicators. Survival curves presented the prognosis of the new classification system and AJCC criteria.

Results

In total, 17,621 eligible patients were included. Lasso Cox regression selected 4 variables including age, chemotherapy, radiotherapy and AJCC stage. The C-index of the training cohort was 0.721. The C-index value of the validation cohort was 0.729. The AUCs for the training cohorts at 1, 2, and 3 years were 0.749, 0.729, and 0.715, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the predicted and actual probabilities at 1, 2, and 3 years matched. External validation confirmed the model's outstanding predictive power. Decision curve analysis indicated that the clinical benefit of the nomogram was higher than that of the AJCC staging system. The model evaluation indices preceded the AJCC staging with NRI (1-year: 0.88, 2-year: 0.94, 3-year: 0.72) and IDI (1-year: 0.24, 2-year: 0.23, 3-year: 0.22). The Kaplan-Meier curves implied that the new classification system was more capable of distinguishing between patients at different risks.

Conclusions

This study established a prognostic nomogram and risk classification system for advanced pancreatic cancer in patients aged ≥50 years to provide a practical tool for the clinical management of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Early-onset pancreatic cancer: A national cancer registry study from the Czech Republic and review of the literature

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to compare trends in mortality and incidence, clinicopathological features and survival of patients diagnosed with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma under 50 years of age (early-onset pancreatic cancer [EOPC]) with patients diagnosed over 50 years of age (late-onset pancreatic cancer [LOPC]).

METHODS

The national oncological registry of the Czech Republic was reviewed to identify all patients with histologically confirmed pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma diagnosed between the years 1985 and 2015. Incidence, mortality, clinicopathological and survival data were analyzed and compared between patients with EOPC and LOPC.

RESULTS

From a total of 18 888 patients included in the study, 1324 patients were under the age of 50 years (7.0%). The average annual percentage changes (AAPC) in incidence of all patients with EOPC was -1.0%. The APPC for male patients with EOPC was -2.0% and for female patients was +0.6%. The AAPC in incidence for LOPC was +1.3%. There were no differences in tumor stage, grade or location between EOPC and LOPC. Young patients were more frequently male (64.4% vs. 52.9%), more frequently underwent treatment and had better overall survival. The median survival interval for EOPC was 5.9 months and for LOPC was 4.5 months (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The clinicopathological features of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma were similar in patients under and over the age of 50 years. Patients with EOPC survived longer than patients with LOPC. Continued efforts should be made to diagnose early and treat young patients aggressively.

Survival benefit of local consolidative therapy for patients with single-organ metastatic pancreatic cancer: a propensity score-matched cross-sectional study based on 17 registries

Background

The continuous exploration of oligometastatic disease has led to the remarkable achievements of local consolidative therapy (LCT) and favorable outcomes for this disease. Thus, this study investigated the potential benefits of LCT in patients with single-organ metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

Methods

Patients with single-organ metastatic PDAC diagnosed between 2010 - 2019 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to minimize selection bias. Factors affecting survival were assessed by Cox regression analysis and Kaplan-Meier estimates.

Results

A total of 12900 patients were identified from the database, including 635 patients who received chemotherapy combined with LCT with a 1:1 PSM with patients who received only chemotherapy. Patients with single-organ metastatic PDAC who received chemotherapy in combination with LCT demonstrated extended median overall survival (OS) by approximately 57%, more than those who underwent chemotherapy alone (11 vs. 7 months, p < 0.001). Furthermore, the multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that patients that received LCT, younger age (< 65 years), smaller tumor size (< 50 mm), and lung metastasis (reference: liver) were favorable prognostic factors for patients with single-organ metastatic PDAC.

Conclusion

The OS of patients with single-organ metastatic pancreatic cancer who received LCT may be prolonged compared to those who received only chemotherapy. Nevertheless, additional prospective randomized clinical trials are required to support these findings.

Use of period analysis to provide a timely assessment of 5-year relative survival for pancreatic cancer patients from Taizhou, eastern China

Assessing long-term tumor survival rates is crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of tumor treatment and burden. However, timely assessment of long-term survival in patients with pancreatic cancer is lagging in China. In this study, we applied period analysis to estimate the long-term survival of pancreatic cancer patients using data from four population-based cancer registries in Taizhou city, eastern China. A total of 1121 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer between 2004 and 2018 were included. We assessed the 5-year relative survival (RS) using period analysis and further stratified by sex, age at diagnosis, and region. The 5-year RS during 2014-2018 overall reached 18.9% (14.7% for men and 23.3% for women, respectively). A decrease of the 5-year RS from 30.3% to 11.2% was observed in four diagnostic age gradients (< 55, 55-64, 65-74, and > 74 years age groups). The 5-year RS was higher in urban (24.2%) than in rural (17.4%) areas. Moreover, the 5-year RS of pancreatic cancer patients showed an overall increasing trend for the three periods (2004-2008, 2009-2013, and 2014-2018). Our study, using period analysis for the first time in China, provides the latest estimates of the survival of patients with pancreatic cancer, which provides essential evidence for the prevention and intervention of pancreatic cancer. The results also indicate the importance of further applications of the period analysis for more up-to-date and accurate survival estimates.

Nomograms for Predicting the Risk and Prognosis of Liver Metastases in Pancreatic Cancer: A Population-Based Analysis

The liver is the most prevalent location of distant metastasis for pancreatic cancer (PC), which is highly aggressive. Pancreatic cancer with liver metastases (PCLM) patients have a poor prognosis. Furthermore, there is a lack of effective predictive tools for anticipating the diagnostic and prognostic techniques that are needed for the PCLM patients in current clinical work. Therefore, we aimed to construct two nomogram predictive models incorporating common clinical indicators to anticipate the risk factors and prognosis for PCLM patients. Clinicopathological information on pancreatic cancer that referred to patients who had been diagnosed between the years of 2004 and 2015 was extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and a Cox regression analysis were utilized to recognize the independent risk variables and independent predictive factors for the PCLM patients, respectively. Using the independent risk as well as prognostic factors derived from the multivariate regression analysis, we constructed two novel nomogram models for predicting the risk and prognosis of PCLM patients. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the consistency index (C-index), and the calibration curve were then utilized to establish the accuracy of the nomograms’ predictions and their discriminability between groups. Using a decision curve analysis (DCA), the clinical values of the two predictors were examined. Finally, we utilized Kaplan–Meier curves to examine the effects of different factors on the prognostic overall survival (OS). As many as 1898 PCLM patients were screened. The patient’s sex, primary site, histopathological type, grade, T stage, N stage, bone metastases, lung metastases, tumor size, surgical resection, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were all found to be independent risks variables for PCLM in a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Using a multivariate Cox regression analysis, we discovered that age, histopathological type, grade, bone metastasis, lung metastasis, tumor size, and surgery were all independent prognostic variables for PCLM. According to these factors, two nomogram models were developed to anticipate the prognostic OS as well as the risk variables for the progression of PCLM in PCLM patients, and a web-based version of the prediction model was constructed. The diagnostic nomogram model had a C-index of 0.884 (95% CI: 0.876–0.892); the prognostic model had a C-index of 0.686 (95% CI: 0.648–0.722) in the training cohort and a C-index of 0.705 (95% CI: 0.647–0.758) in the validation cohort. Subsequent AUC, calibration curve, and DCA analyses revealed that the risk and predictive model of PCLM had high accuracy as well as efficacy for clinical application. The nomograms constructed can effectively predict risk and prognosis factors in PCLM patients, which facilitates personalized clinical decision-making for patients.

Impact of Patient Age on Postoperative Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome after Pancreatic Resection of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

(1) Purpose: to evaluate the impact of age on postoperative short-term and long-term outcomes in patients undergoing curative pancreatic resection for PDAC. (2) Methods: This retrospective single-center study comprised 213 patients who had undergone primary resection of PDAC from January 2000 to December 2018 at the University Hospital of Erlangen, Germany. Patients were stratified according the age into two groups: younger (≤70 years) and older (>70 years) patients. Postoperative outcome and long-term survival were compared between the groups. (3) Results: There were no significant differences regarding inhospital morbidity (58% vs. 67%, p = 0.255) or inhospital mortality (2% vs. 7%, p = 0.073) between the two groups. The median overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were significantly shorter in elderly patients (OS: 29.2 vs. 17.1 months, p < 0.001, respectively; DFS: 14.9 vs. 10.4 months, p = 0.034). Multivariate analysis revealed that age was a significant independent prognostic predictor for OS and DFS (HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.58−3.15; p < 0.001 for OS and HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.17−2.24; p = 0.004 for DFS). (4) Conclusion: patient age significantly influenced overall and disease-free survival in patients with PDAC undergoing primary resection in curative intent.

Diagnostic, Therapy and Complications in Acute Appendicitis of 19,749 Cases Based on Routine Data: A Retrospective Multicenter Observational Study

Background: Acute appendicitis is one of the most common emergencies in general surgery. The gold standard treatment is surgery. Complications may occur during or after an appendectomy. In addition to age, clinically important factors for the outcome after appendicitis seems to be the comorbidities and the stage of the appendicitis at the time of the operation. Large observational data describing these facts are missing. Methods: In this retrospective multicenter observational study, all inpatients over the age of 17 years with a diagnosis of acute appendicitis in 47 hospitals of the Clinotel Hospital Group between 2010 and 2017 were included. Results: A total of 19,749 patients with acute appendicitis were operated on. The number of patients with more than five secondary diagnoses has increased from 8.4% (2010) to 14.5% (2017). The number of secondary diagnoses correlates with the ages of the patients and leads to a significantly longer hospital stay. Computer tomography (CT) has gained in importance in recent years in the diagnosis of acute appendicitis. A total of 19.9% of patients received a CT in 2017. Laparoscopic appendectomy increased from 88% in 2010 to 95% in 2017 (p < 0.001). The conversion rate did not change relevant in the study period (i.e., 2.3% in 2017). Appendicitis with perforation, abscess, or generalized peritonitis was observed in 24.8% of patients. Mortality was 0.6% during the observation period and was associated with age and the number of secondary diagnoses. The analysis is based on administrative data collected primarily for billing purposes, subject to the usual limitations of such data. This includes partially incomplete clinical data. Conclusions: Multimorbidity is increasingly present in patients with acute appendicitis. Mortality is still in an acceptably low range with no increase. A CT scan is necessary for a precise diagnosis in unclear clinical situations to avoid unnecessary operations and was performed more often at the end of the study than at the beginning.