External validation of prognostic models for preeclampsia in a Dutch multicenter prospective cohort

Externally validated prediction models for pre-eclampsia: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the performance of existing externally validated prediction models for pre-eclampsia (PE) (specifically, any-onset, early-onset, late-onset and preterm PE).

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted in five databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Emcare, CINAHL and Maternity & Infant Care Database) and using Google Scholar/reference search to identify studies based on the Population, Index prediction model, Comparator, Outcome, Timing and Setting (PICOTS) approach until 20 May 2023. We extracted data using the CHARMS checklist and appraised the risk of bias using the PROBAST tool. A meta-analysis of discrimination and calibration performance was conducted when appropriate.

RESULTS

Twenty-three studies reported 52 externally validated prediction models for PE (one preterm, 20 any-onset, 17 early-onset and 14 late-onset PE models). No model had the same set of predictors. Fifteen any-onset PE models were validated externally once, two were validated twice and three were validated three times, while the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) competing-risks model for preterm PE prediction was validated widely in 16 different settings. The most common predictors were maternal characteristics (prepregnancy body mass index, prior PE, family history of PE, chronic medical conditions and ethnicity) and biomarkers (uterine artery pulsatility index and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A). The FMF model for preterm PE (triple test plus maternal factors) had the best performance, with a pooled area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.90 (95% prediction interval (PI), 0.76-0.96), and was well calibrated. The other models generally had poor-to-good discrimination performance (median AUC, 0.66 (range, 0.53-0.77)) and were overfitted on external validation. Apart from the FMF model, only two models that were validated multiple times for any-onset PE prediction, which were based on maternal characteristics only, produced reasonable pooled AUCs of 0.71 (95% PI, 0.66-0.76) and 0.73 (95% PI, 0.55-0.86).

CONCLUSIONS

Existing externally validated prediction models for any-, early- and late-onset PE have limited discrimination and calibration performance, and include inconsistent input variables. The triple-test FMF model had outstanding discrimination performance in predicting preterm PE in numerous settings, but the inclusion of specialized biomarkers may limit feasibility and implementation outside of high-resource settings. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Analysis of Predictive Information From Biomarkers Added to Clinical Models of Preeclampsia: Consideration of PAPP-A2, Activin A, and sFlt-1:PlGF Ratio

BACKGROUND

Preeclampsia remains a major cause of maternal and fetal adverse outcomes in pregnancy; however, accurate and universally acceptable predictive tools remain elusive. We investigated whether a panel of biomarkers could improve risk prediction for preeclampsia when measured at various pregnancy time points.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, 192 women with first-trimester high-risk singleton pregnancies were consecutively recruited from tertiary obstetrics clinics in Montréal, Canada. Clinical information (height, pre-pregnancy weight, personal and family medical history, medication use) was collected at baseline. Blood pressure was measured and blood samples collected at each trimester to quantify soluble Fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1), placental growth factor (PlGF), pregnancy-associated plasma protein A2 (PAPP-A2), PAPP-A, activin A, inhibin A, follistatin, and glycosylated fibronectin. A random-effects hierarchic logistic regression model was used to relate change in biomarker levels to incidence of preeclampsia.

RESULTS

When added to a clinical model composed of maternal age, pre-pregnancy body mass index, race, and mean arterial pressure, a positive third-trimester result for both PAPP-A2 and activin A had a better positive predictive value than the sFlt-1:PlGF ratio added to the clinical model (91.67% [95% confidence interval (CI) 78.57%-100%] vs 66.67% [57.14%-100%]), while maintaining a comparable high negative predictive value (97.69% [95% CI 95.34%-100%] vs 96.00% [92.19%-99.21%]).

CONCLUSIONS

Whereas the third-trimester sFlt-1:PlGF ratio can predict short-term absence of preeclampsia, PAPP-A2 and activin A had both high positive and negative predictive values and therefore could serve as biomarkers to predict the occurrence (and absence) of preeclampsia; these findings will be validated in future studies.

Prediction of preeclampsia in asymptomatic women

Preeclampsia is a major cause of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. It is important to identify women who are at high risk of developing this disorder in their first trimester of pregnancy to allow timely therapeutic intervention. The use of low-dose aspirin initiated before 16 weeks of gestation can significantly reduce the rate of preterm preeclampsia by 62 %. Effective screening recommended by the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) consists of a combination of maternal risk factors, mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and placental growth factor (PLGF). The current model has detection rates of 90 %, 75 %, and 41 % for early, preterm, and term preeclampsia, respectively at 10 % false-positive rate. Similar risk assessment can be performed during the second trimester in all pregnant women irrespective of first trimester screening results. The use of PLGF, UtA-PI, sFlt-1 combined with other investigative tools are part of risk assessment.

Predictive value of the sFlt‑1/PlGF ratio in women with suspected preeclampsia: An update (Review)

Preeclampsia (PE) is a major complication of pregnancy with an incidence rate of 2‑8% and is a leading cause of maternal mortality and morbidity. The various consequences of severe preeclampsia for the fetus, neonate and child include intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), fetal hypoxia, oligohydramnios, intrauterine fetal demise, increased perinatal mortality and morbidity, neurodevelopmental disorders and even irreversible brain damage (cerebral palsy). A number of studies have demonstrated that differences in maternal serum concentrations of angiogenic factors between preeclampsia and normotensive pregnancies can be used as biomarkers, either alone or in combination with other markers, to predict the development of PE. The presence in the maternal circulation of two proteins of placental origin, placental growth factor (PlGF) and soluble fms‑like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt‑1), has been shown to be of clinical value, as the sFlt‑1/PlGF ratio appears to be the optimal predictive tool for the development of PE. The measurement of their concentration in maternal serum in screening models, serves as predictive marker for the development of PE or IUGR later in gestation. However, further research is required to improve its clinical applicability and provide guidelines for its use worldwide to achieve more consistent clinical management of women with PE.

Arterial stiffness for the early prediction of pre-eclampsia compared with blood pressure, uterine artery Doppler and angiogenic biomarkers: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to evaluate the ability of arterial stiffness parameters to predict pre-eclampsia early compared with peripheral blood pressure, uterine artery Doppler and established angiogenic biomarkers.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Tertiary care antenatal clinics in Montreal, Canada.

POPULATION

Women with singleton high-risk pregnancies.

METHODS

In the first trimester, arterial stiffness was measured by applanation tonometry, along with peripheral blood pressure and serum/plasma angiogenic biomarkers; uterine artery Doppler was measured in the second trimester. The predictive ability of different metrics was assessed through multivariate logistic regression.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Arterial stiffness (carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, carotid-radial pulse wave velocity) and wave reflection (augmentation index, reflected wave start time), peripheral blood pressure, ultrasound indices of velocimetry and circulating angiogenic biomarker concentrations.

RESULTS

In this prospective study, among 191 high-risk pregnant women, 14 (7.3%) developed pre-eclampsia. A first-trimester 1 m/s increase in carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity was associated with 64% increased odds (P < 0.05), and a 1-millisecond increase in time to wave reflection with 11% decreased odds for pre-eclampsia (P < 0.01). The area under the curve of arterial stiffness, blood pressure, ultrasound indices and angiogenic biomarkers was 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.74-0.92), 0.71 (95% CI 0.57-0.86), 0.58 (95% CI 0.39-0.77), and 0.64 (95% CI 0.44-0.83), respectively. With a 5% false-positive rate, blood pressure had a sensitivity of 14% for pre-eclampsia and arterial stiffness a sensitivity of 36%.

CONCLUSIONS

Arterial stiffness predicted pre-eclampsia earlier and with greater ability than blood pressure, ultrasound indices or angiogenic biomarkers.

First trimester preeclampsia screening and prediction

Preeclampsia is a major cause of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. Early-onset disease requiring preterm delivery is associated with a higher risk of complications in both mothers and babies. Evidence suggests that the administration of low-dose aspirin initiated before 16 weeks' gestation significantly reduces the rate of preterm preeclampsia. Therefore, it is important to identify pregnant women at risk of developing preeclampsia during the first trimester of pregnancy, thus allowing timely therapeutic intervention. Several professional organizations such as the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) have proposed screening for preeclampsia based on maternal risk factors. The approach recommended by ACOG and NICE essentially treats each risk factor as a separate screening test with additive detection rate and screen-positive rate. Evidence has shown that preeclampsia screening based on the NICE and ACOG approach has suboptimal performance, as the NICE recommendation only achieves detection rates of 41% and 34%, with a 10% false-positive rate, for preterm and term preeclampsia, respectively. Screening based on the 2013 ACOG recommendation can only achieve detection rates of 5% and 2% for preterm and term preeclampsia, respectively, with a 0.2% false-positive rate. Various first trimester prediction models have been developed. Most of them have not undergone or failed external validation. However, it is worthy of note that the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) first trimester prediction model (namely the triple test), which consists of a combination of maternal factors and measurements of mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, and serum placental growth factor, has undergone successful internal and external validation. The FMF triple test has detection rates of 90% and 75% for the prediction of early and preterm preeclampsia, respectively, with a 10% false-positive rate. Such performance of screening is superior to that of the traditional method by maternal risk factors alone. The use of the FMF prediction model, followed by the administration of low-dose aspirin, has been shown to reduce the rate of preterm preeclampsia by 62%. The number needed to screen to prevent 1 case of preterm preeclampsia by the FMF triple test is 250. The key to maintaining optimal screening performance is to establish standardized protocols for biomarker measurements and regular biomarker quality assessment, as inaccurate measurement can affect screening performance. Tools frequently used to assess quality control include the cumulative sum and target plot. Cumulative sum is a sensitive method to detect small shifts over time, and point of shift can be easily identified. Target plot is a tool to evaluate deviation from the expected multiple of median and the expected median of standard deviation. Target plot is easy to interpret and visualize. However, it is insensitive to detecting small deviations. Adherence to well-defined protocols for the measurements of mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, and placental growth factor is required. This article summarizes the existing literature on the different methods, recommendations by professional organizations, quality assessment of different components of risk assessment, and clinical implementation of the first trimester screening for preeclampsia.

A prospective population-based multicentre study on the impact of maternal body mass index on adverse pregnancy outcomes: Focus on normal weight

Background

Maternal body mass index (BMI) below or above the reference interval (18.5–24.9 kg/m²) is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. Whether BMI exerts an effect within the reference interval is unclear. Therefore, we assessed the association between adverse pregnancy outcomes and BMI, in particular within the reference interval, in a general unselected pregnant population.

Methods

Data was extracted from a prospective population-based multicentre cohort (Risk Estimation for PrEgnancy Complications to provide Tailored care (RESPECT) study) conducted between December 2012 to January 2014. BMI was studied in categories (I: <18.5, II: 18.5–19.9, III: 20.0–22.9, IV: 23.0–24.9, V: 25.0–27.4, VI: 27.5–29.9, VII: >30.0 kg/m²) and as a continuous variable within the reference interval. Adverse pregnancy outcomes were defined as composite endpoints for maternal, neonatal or any pregnancy complication, and for adverse pregnancy outcomes individually. Linear trends were assessed using linear-by-linear association analysis and (adjusted) relative risks by regression analysis.

Results

The median BMI of the 3671 included women was 23.2 kg/m² (IQR 21.1–26.2). Adverse pregnancy outcomes were reported in 1256 (34.2%). Linear associations were observed between BMI categories and all three composite endpoints, and individually for pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH), preeclampsia, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), large-for-gestational-age (LGA) neonates; but not for small-for-gestational-age neonates and preterm birth. Within the reference interval, BMI was associated with the composite maternal endpoint, PIH, GDM and LGA, with adjusted relative risks of 1.15 (95%CI 1.06–1.26), 1.12 (95%CI 1.00–1.26), 1.31 (95%CI 1.11–1.55) and 1.09 (95%CI 1.01–1.17).

Conclusions

Graded increase in maternal BMI appears to be an indicator of risk for adverse pregnancy outcomes even among women with a BMI within the reference interval. The extent to which BMI directly contributes to the increased risk in this group should be evaluated in order to determine strategies most valuable for promoting safety and long-term health for mothers and their offspring.

Low fetal fraction in cell-free DNA testing is associated with adverse pregnancy outcome: Analysis of a subcohort of the TRIDENT-2 study

Objectives

To assess the association between low fetal fraction (FF) in prenatal cell‐free DNA (cfDNA) testing and adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of participants of the TRIDENT‐2 study (Dutch nationwide government‐supported study offering cfDNA screening for fetal aneuploidies) who received a failed test result due to low FF (<4%) between April 2017 until February 2018. Outcome measures included pregnancy‐induced hypertension (PIH), pre‐eclampsia (PE), small for gestational age neonates (SGA), spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB), gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), chromosomal aberrations, and congenital structural anomalies.

Results

Test failure due to low FF occurred in 295 women (1.12% of tests performed). Information regarding pregnancy outcomes was available for 96.3% of these women. The incidence of PIH, PE, SGA, sPTB, and GDM was 11.2%, 4.1%, 7.3%, 5.1%, and 14.8%, respectively. The prevalence of chromosomal aberrations and congenital structural anomalies was 1.4% and 4.1%, respectively. Incidences of PIH, PE ≥ 34 weeks of gestation, GDM, and prevalence of aneuploidy and congenital structural anomalies were higher in women with low FF compared to the general Dutch obstetric population.

Conclusion

Low FF is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. The value of FF in the prediction of these outcomes needs to be further established.

Associations between periconceptional lifestyle behaviours and adverse pregnancy outcomes

Background

While the potential adverse outcomes of prenatal exposure to unhealthy lifestyle are widely evidenced, little is known about these exposures in the periconception period. We investigated the associations between lifestyle behaviours and adverse pregnancy outcomes with a unique distinction between preconceptional- and prenatal lifestyle behaviours.

Methods

A secondary analysis took place within a prospective multicentre cohort study in the Netherlands, including 3,684 pregnant women. Baseline characteristics and preconceptional and first trimester lifestyle behaviours were assessed through a self-administered questionnaire in the first trimester. Adverse pregnancy outcomes (hypertensive disorders in pregnancy (HDP), small for gestational age (SGA), gestational diabetes (GDM) and spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB)) were reported by healthcare professionals. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 and analysed using multivariate logistic regression.

Results

Women who are overweight, and especially obese, have the highest odds of developing any adverse pregnancy outcome (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.61 (95 % Confidence Interval (CI) 1.31–1.99) and aOR 2.85 (95 %CI 2.20–3.68), respectively), particularly HDP and GDM. Women who prenatally continued smoking attained higher odds for SGA (aOR 1.91 (95 %CI 1.05–1.15)) compared to the reference group, but these odds decreased when women prenatally quit smoking (aOR 1.14 (95 %CI 0.59–2.21)). Women who did not use folic acid supplements tended to have a higher odds of developing adverse pregnancy outcomes (aOR 1.28 (95 %CI 0.97–1.69)), while women who prenatally started folic acid supplements did not (aOR 1.01 (95 %CI 0.82–1.25)).

Conclusions

Our results indicate that smoking cessation, having a normal body mass index (BMI) and initiating folic acid supplements preconceptionally may decrease the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Therefore, intervening as early as the preconception period could benefit the health of future generations.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12884-021-03935-x.

Prediction of preeclampsia risk in first time pregnant women: Metabolite biomarkers for a clinical test

Preeclampsia remains a leading cause of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. Accurate prediction of preeclampsia risk would enable more effective, risk-based prenatal care pathways. Current risk assessment algorithms depend on clinical risk factors largely unavailable for first-time pregnant women. Delivering accurate preeclampsia risk assessment to this cohort of women, therefore requires for novel biomarkers. Here, we evaluated the relevance of metabolite biomarker candidates for their selection into a prototype rapid, quantitative Liquid Chromatography-tandem Mass Spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) based clinical screening assay. First, a library of targeted LC-MS/MS assays for metabolite biomarker candidates was developed, using a medium-throughput translational metabolomics workflow, to verify biomarker potential in the Screening-for-Pregnancy-Endpoints (SCOPE, European branch) study. A variable pre-selection step was followed by the development of multivariable prediction models for pre-defined clinical use cases, i.e., prediction of preterm preeclampsia risk and of any preeclampsia risk. Within a large set of metabolite biomarker candidates, we confirmed the potential of dilinoleoyl-glycerol and heptadecanoyl-2-hydroxy-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine to effectively complement Placental Growth Factor, an established preeclampsia biomarker, for the prediction of preeclampsia risk in first-time pregnancies without overt risk factors. These metabolites will be considered for integration in a prototype rapid, quantitative LC-MS/MS assay, and subsequent validation in an independent cohort.

Home-Based Monitoring and Telemonitoring of Complicated Pregnancies: Nationwide Cross-Sectional Survey of Current Practice in the Netherlands

Background

Daily monitoring of fetal and maternal conditions in complicated pregnancies leads to recurrent outpatient visits or (prolonged) hospitalization. Alternatives for hospital admissions include home-based monitoring with home visits by professionals or telemonitoring with self-measurements performed by pregnant women and uploaded for in-clinic assessment. For both alternatives, cardiotocography and blood pressure measurement can be performed at home. It is unknown to what extent, for which reasons, and for which pregnancy complications these strategies are used.

Objective

This study aims to assess the current practice and attitudes concerning home-based monitoring (with daily home visits by professionals) and telemonitoring (using devices and the internet for daily self-recorded measurements) in high-risk pregnancies requiring maternal and fetal monitoring in the Netherlands.

Methods

This nationwide cross-sectional study involved sending a web-based survey to the obstetrics departments of all 73 hospitals in the Netherlands to be answered by 1 representative dedicated to pregnancy monitoring per hospital. The primary outcome was the provision of home-based monitoring or telemonitoring using cardiotocography between 1995 and 2018. The survey further addressed perspectives regarding the use of home-based monitoring and telemonitoring, including (contra)indications, advantages, and disadvantages for pregnant women and clinicians.

Results

The response rate for the provision of either home-based monitoring or telemonitoring was 100%. In 2018, 38% (28/73) of centers in the Netherlands offered either home-based monitoring or telemonitoring or both to pregnant women with complications. Home-based monitoring was offered in 26% (19/73) of the centers; telemonitoring, in 23% (17/73); and both in 11% (8/73). Telemonitoring was first offered in 2009, increasing from 4% (3/73) of hospitals in 2014 to 23% (17/73) in 2018. Responses were received from 78% (57/73) of the invited hospitals and analyzed. Of all 17 centers using telemonitoring, 59% (10/17) did not investigate perinatal outcomes, safety, and patient satisfaction prior to implementation. Other (6/17, 35%) telemonitoring centers are participating in an ongoing multicenter randomized clinical trial comparing patient safety, satisfaction, and costs of telemonitoring with standard hospital admission. Home-based monitoring and telemonitoring are provided for a wide range of complications, such as fetal growth restriction, pre-eclampsia, and preterm rupture of membranes. The respondents reported advantages of monitoring from home, such as reduced stress and increased rest for patients, and reduction of admission and possible reduction of costs. The stated barriers included lack of insurance reimbursement and possible technical issues.

Conclusions

Home-based monitoring is provided in 26% (19/73) and telemonitoring, in 23% (17/73) of hospitals in the Netherlands to women with pregnancy complications. Altogether, 38% (28/73) of hospitals offer either home-based monitoring or telemonitoring or both as an alternative to hospital admission. Future research is warranted to assess safety and reimbursement issues before more widespread implementation of this practice.

Comparative risks and predictors of preeclamptic pregnancy in the Eastern, Western and developing world

Preeclampsia (PE) is a complication of pregnancy characterized by hypertension (HTN-Preg), and often proteinuria. If not managed promptly, PE could lead to eclampsia and seizures. PE could also lead to intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) and prematurity at birth. Although PE is a major cause of maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality, the underlying mechanisms are unclear. Also, there is a wide variability in the incidence of PE, ranging between 2 and 8% of pregnancies in the Eastern, Western and Developing world, suggesting regional differences in the risk factors and predictors of the pregnancy-related disorder. Several demographic, genetic, dietary and environmental factors, as well as maternal circulating biomarkers have been associated with PE. Demographic factors such as maternal race and ethnicity could play a role in PE. Specific genetic polymorphisms have been identified in PE. Maternal age, parity, education and socioeconomic status could be involved in PE. Dietary fat, protein, calcium and vitamins, body weight, and environmental factors including climate changes and air pollutants could also play a role in PE. Several circulating cytoactive factors including anti-angiogenic factors and cytokines have also been associated with PE. Traditional midwifery care is a common practice in local maternity care units, while advanced perinatal care and new diagnostic tools such as uterine artery Doppler velocimetry have been useful in predicting early PE in major medical centers. These PE risk factors, early predictors and diagnostic tools vary vastly in different regions of the Eastern, Western and Developing world. Further understanding of the differences in the demographic, genetic, dietary and environmental factors among pregnant women in different world regions should help in designing a region-specific cluster of risk factors and predictors of PE, and in turn provide better guidance for region-specific tools for early detection and management of PE.

Prognostic models versus single risk factor approach in first-trimester selective screening for gestational diabetes mellitus: a prospective population-based multicentre cohort study

Objectives

To evaluate whether (1) first‐trimester prognostic models for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) outperform the currently used single risk factor approach, and (2) a first‐trimester random venous glucose measurement improves model performance.

Design

Prospective population‐based multicentre cohort.

Setting

Thirty‐one independent midwifery practices and six hospitals in the Netherlands.

Population

Women recruited before 14 weeks of gestation without pre‐existing diabetes.

Methods

The single risk factor approach (presence of at least one risk factor: BMI ≥30 kg/m², previous macrosomia, history of GDM, positive first‐degree family history of diabetes, non‐western ethnicity) was compared with the four best performing models in our previously published external validation study (Gabbay‐Benziv 2014, Nanda 2011, Teede 2011, van Leeuwen 2010) with and without the addition of glucose.

Main outcome measures

Discrimination was assessed by c‐statistics, calibration by calibration plots, added value of glucose by the likelihood ratio chi‐square test, net benefit by decision curve analysis and reclassification by reclassification plots.

Results

Of the 3723 women included, a total of 181 (4.9%) developed GDM. The c‐statistics of the prognostic models were higher, ranging from 0.74 to 0.78 without glucose and from 0.78 to 0.80 with glucose, compared with the single risk factor approach (0.72). Models showed adequate calibration, and yielded a higher net benefit than the single risk factor approach for most threshold probabilities. Teede 2011 performed best in the reclassification analysis.

Conclusions

First‐trimester prognostic models seem to outperform the currently used single risk factor approach in screening for GDM, particularly when glucose was added as a predictor.

Tweetable abstract

Prognostic models seem to outperform the currently used single risk factor approach in screening for gestational diabetes.

Prognostic models seem to outperform the currently used single risk factor approach in screening for gestational diabetes.

Prospective evaluation of screening performance of first-trimester prediction models for preterm preeclampsia in an Asian population

BACKGROUND

The administration of aspirin <16 weeks gestation to women who are at high risk for preeclampsia has been shown to reduce the rate of preterm preeclampsia by 65%. The traditional approach to identify such women who are at risk is based on risk factors from maternal characteristics, obstetrics, and medical history as recommended by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. An alternative approach to screening for preeclampsia has been developed by the Fetal Medicine Foundation. This approach allows the estimation of patient-specific risks of preeclampsia that requires delivery before a specified gestational age with the use of Bayes theorem-based model.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to examine the diagnostic accuracy of the Fetal Medicine Foundation Bayes theorem-based model, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommendations for the prediction of preterm preeclampsia at 11-13⁺⁶ weeks gestation in a large Asian population STUDY DESIGN: This was a prospective, nonintervention, multicenter study in 10,935 singleton pregnancies at 11-13⁺⁶ weeks gestation in 11 recruiting centers across 7 regions in Asia between December 2016 and June 2018. Maternal characteristics and medical, obstetric, and drug history were recorded. Mean arterial pressure and uterine artery pulsatility indices were measured according to standardized protocols. Maternal serum placental growth factor concentrations were measured by automated analyzers. The measured values of mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, and placental growth factor were converted into multiples of the median. The Fetal Medicine Foundation Bayes theorem-based model was used for the calculation of patient-specific risk of preeclampsia at <37 weeks gestation (preterm preeclampsia) and at any gestation (all preeclampsia) in each participant. The performance of screening for preterm preeclampsia and all preeclampsia by a combination of maternal factors, mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, and placental growth factor (triple test) was evaluated with the adjustment of aspirin use. We examined the predictive performance of the model by the use of receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration by measurements of calibration slope and calibration in the large. The detection rate of screening by the Fetal Medicine Foundation Bayes theorem-based model was compared with the model that was derived from the application of American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommendations.

RESULTS

There were 224 women (2.05%) who experienced preeclampsia, which included 73 cases (0.67%) of preterm preeclampsia. In pregnancies with preterm preeclampsia, the mean multiples of the median values of mean arterial pressure and uterine artery pulsatility index were significantly higher (mean arterial pressure, 1.099 vs 1.008 [P<.001]; uterine artery pulsatility index, 1.188 vs 1.063[P=.006]), and the mean placental growth factor multiples of the median was significantly lower (0.760 vs 1.100 [P<.001]) than in women without preeclampsia. The Fetal Medicine Foundation triple test achieved detection rates of 48.2%, 64.0%, 71.8%, and 75.8% at 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% fixed false-positive rates, respectively, for the prediction of preterm preeclampsia. These were comparable with those of previously published data from the Fetal Medicine Foundation study. Screening that used the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists recommendations achieved detection rate of 54.6% at 20.4% false-positive rate. The detection rate with the use of National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guideline was 26.3% at 5.5% false-positive rate.

CONCLUSION

Based on a large number of women, this study has demonstrated that the Fetal Medicine Foundation Bayes theorem-based model is effective in the prediction of preterm preeclampsia in an Asian population and that this method of screening is superior to the approach recommended by American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. We have also shown that the Fetal Medicine Foundation prediction model can be implemented as part of routine prenatal care through the use of the existing infrastructure of routine prenatal care.

Study protocol for a prospective cohort study to investigate Hemodynamic Adaptation to Pregnancy and Placenta-related Outcome: the HAPPO study

INTRODUCTION

The importance of cardiovascular health in relation to pregnancy outcome is increasingly acknowledged. Women who develop certain pregnancy complications, in particular preeclampsia, are at higher risk for future cardiovascular disease. Independent of its outcome, pregnancy requires a substantial adaptive response of the maternal cardiovascular system. In the Hemodynamic Adaptation to Pregnancy and Placenta-related Outcome (HAPPO) study, we aim to examine longitudinal maternal haemodynamic adaptation to pregnancy from the preconception period onwards. We hypothesise that women who will develop adverse pregnancy outcomes have impaired cardiovascular health before conception, leading to haemodynamic maladaptation to pregnancy and diminished uteroplacental vascular development.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

In this prospective cohort study embedded in the Rotterdam periconception cohort, 200 women with a history of placenta-related pregnancy complications (high-risk group) and 100 women with an uncomplicated obstetric history (low-risk group) will be included. At five moments (preconception, first, second and third trimester and postdelivery), women will undergo an extensive examination of the macrocirculatory and microcirculatory system and uteroplacental vascular development. The main outcome measures are differences in maternal haemodynamic adaptation to pregnancy between women with and without placenta-related pregnancy complications. In a multivariate linear mixed model, the relationship between maternal haemodynamic adaptive parameters, (utero)placental vascularisation indices and clinical outcomes (occurrence of pregnancy complications, embryonic and fetal growth trajectories, miscarriage rate, gestational age at delivery, birth weight) will be studied. Subgroup analysis will be performed to study baseline and trajectory differences between high-risk and low-risk women, independent of subsequent pregnancy outcome.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study protocol was approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of the Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands (MEC 2018-150). Results will be disseminated to the medical community by publications in peer-reviewed journals and presentations at scientific congresses. Also, patient associations will be informed and the public will be informed by dissemination through (social) media.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NL7394 (www.trialregister.nl).

Views and preferences of medical professionals and pregnant women about a novel primary prevention intervention for hypertensive disorders of pregnancy: a qualitative study

Background

Calcium and low-dose aspirin are two potential approaches for primary prevention of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP). This study aimed to explore the acceptability, views and preferences of pregnant women and primary healthcare providers for a fixed-dose combined preparation of aspirin and calcium (a polypill) as primary prevention of HDP in an unselected pregnant population.

Methods

In this qualitative study eight in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with Dutch primary care midwives and general practitioners. Seven focus group discussions were organised with women with low-risk pregnancies. Topics discussed were: perceptions of preeclampsia; information provision about preeclampsia and a polypill; views on the polypill concept; preferences and needs regarding implementation of a polypill. Thematic analysis of the data transcripts was carried out to identify emerging themes.

Results

Two major themes shaped medical professionals’ and women’s views on the polypill concept: ‘Informed Choice’ and ‘Medicalisation’. Both could be divided into subthemes related to information provision, personal choice and discussions with regard to the balance between ‘unnecessary medicalisation’ and ‘scientific progress’.

Conclusions

In general, women and healthcare practitioners expressed a positive attitude towards a polypill intervention as primary prevention strategy with aspirin and calcium, providing some conditions are met. The most important conditions for implementation of such a strategy were safety, effectiveness and the possibility to make a well-informed autonomous decision.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12978-019-0707-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.