The use of component-wise gradient boosting to assess the possible role of cognitive measures as markers of vulnerability to pediatric bipolar disorder

Using machine learning to identify predictors of imminent drinking and create tailored messages for at-risk drinkers experiencing homelessness

Adults experiencing homelessness are more likely to have an alcohol use disorder compared to adults in the general population. Although shelter-based treatments are common, completion rates tend to be poor, suggesting a need for more effective approaches that are tailored to this understudied and underserved population. One barrier to developing more effective treatments is the limited knowledge of the triggers of alcohol use among homeless adults. This paper describes the use of ecological momentary assessment (EMA) to identify predictors of “imminent drinking” (i.e., drinking within the next 4 h), among a sample of adults experiencing homelessness and receiving health services at a homeless shelter. A total of 78 mostly male (84.6%) adults experiencing homelessness (mean age = 46.6) who reported hazardous drinking completed up to five EMAs per day over 4 weeks (a total of 4557 completed EMAs). The study used machine learning techniques to create a drinking risk algorithm that predicted 82% of imminent drinking episodes within 4 h of the first drink of the day, and correctly identified 76% of nondrinking episodes. The algorithm included the following 7 predictors of imminent drinking: urge to drink, having alcohol easily available, feeling confident that alcohol would improve mood, feeling depressed, lower commitment to being alcohol free, not interacting with someone drinking alcohol, and being indoors. The research team used the results to develop intervention content (e.g., brief tailored messages) that will be delivered when imminent drinking is detected in an upcoming intervention phase. Specifically, we created three theoretically grounded message tracks focused on urge/craving, social/availability, and negative affect/mood, which are further tailored to a participant’s current drinking goal (i.e., stay sober, drink less, no goal) to support positive change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to develop tailored intervention messages based on likelihood of imminent drinking, current drinking triggers, and drinking goals among adults experiencing homelessness.

The Greater Houston Area Bipolar Registry-Clinical and Neurobiological Trajectories of Children and Adolescents With Bipolar Disorders and High-Risk Unaffected Offspring

The aims of this article are to discuss the rationale, design, and procedures of the Greater Houston Area Bipolar Registry (HBR), which aims at contributing to the effort involved in the investigation of neurobiological mechanisms underlying bipolar disorder (BD) as well as to identify clinical and neurobiological markers able to predict BD clinical course. The article will also briefly discuss examples of other initiatives that have made fundamental contributions to the field. This will be a longitudinal study with participants aged 6-17 at the time of enrollment. Participants will be required to meet diagnostic criteria for BD, or to be offspring of a parent with BD. We will also enroll healthy controls. Besides clinical information, which includes neurocognitive performance, participants will be asked to provide blood and saliva samples as well as to perform neuroimaging exams at baseline and follow-ups. Several studies point to the existence of genetic, inflammatory, and brain imaging alterations between individuals at higher genetic risk for BD compared with healthy controls. Longitudinal designs have shown high conversion rates to BD among high-risk offspring, with attempts to identify clinical predictors of disease onset, as well as clarifying the burden associated with environmental stressors. The HBR will help in the worldwide effort investigating the clinical course and neurobiological mechanisms of affected and high-risk children and adolescents with BD.

Predicting Daily Sheltering Arrangements among Youth Experiencing Homelessness Using Diary Measurements Collected by Ecological Momentary Assessment

Youths experiencing homelessness (YEH) often cycle between various sheltering locations including spending nights on the streets, in shelters and with others. Few studies have explored the patterns of daily sheltering over time. A total of 66 participants completed 724 ecological momentary assessments that assessed daily sleeping arrangements. Analyses applied a hypothesis-generating machine learning algorithm (component-wise gradient boosting) to build interpretable models that would select only the best predictors of daily sheltering from a large set of 92 variables while accounting for the correlated nature of the data. Sheltering was examined as a three-category outcome comparing nights spent literally homeless, unstably housed or at a shelter. The final model retained 15 predictors. These predictors included (among others) specific stressors (e.g., not having a place to stay, parenting and hunger), discrimination (by a friend or nonspecified other; due to race or homelessness), being arrested and synthetic cannabinoids use (a.k.a., “kush”). The final model demonstrated success in classifying the categorical outcome. These results have implications for developing just-in-time adaptive interventions for improving the lives of YEH.

Implementing Precision Psychiatry: A Systematic Review of Individualized Prediction Models for Clinical Practice

BACKGROUND

The impact of precision psychiatry for clinical practice has not been systematically appraised. This study aims to provide a comprehensive review of validated prediction models to estimate the individual risk of being affected with a condition (diagnostic), developing outcomes (prognostic), or responding to treatments (predictive) in mental disorders.

METHODS

PRISMA/RIGHT/CHARMS-compliant systematic review of the Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Reviews, and Ovid/PsycINFO databases from inception until July 21, 2019 (PROSPERO CRD42019155713) to identify diagnostic/prognostic/predictive prediction studies that reported individualized estimates in psychiatry and that were internally or externally validated or implemented. Random effect meta-regression analyses addressed the impact of several factors on the accuracy of prediction models.

FINDINGS

Literature search identified 584 prediction modeling studies, of which 89 were included. 10.4% of the total studies included prediction models internally validated (n = 61), 4.6% models externally validated (n = 27), and 0.2% (n = 1) models considered for implementation. Across validated prediction modeling studies (n = 88), 18.2% were diagnostic, 68.2% prognostic, and 13.6% predictive. The most frequently investigated condition was psychosis (36.4%), and the most frequently employed predictors clinical (69.5%). Unimodal compared to multimodal models (β = .29, P = .03) and diagnostic compared to prognostic (β = .84, p < .0001) and predictive (β = .87, P = .002) models were associated with increased accuracy.

INTERPRETATION

To date, several validated prediction models are available to support the diagnosis and prognosis of psychiatric conditions, in particular, psychosis, or to predict treatment response. Advancements of knowledge are limited by the lack of implementation research in real-world clinical practice. A new generation of implementation research is required to address this translational gap.