SNAP-II for prediction of mortality and morbidity in extremely preterm infants

CPAP Versus NIPPV Postextubation in Preterm Neonates: A Comparative-Effectiveness Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Nasal intermittent positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) has been shown to be superior to nasal continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) postextubation in preterm neonates. However, studies have not permitted high CPAP pressures or rescue with other modes. We hypothesized that if CPAP pressures >8 cmH2O and rescue with other modes were permitted, CPAP would be noninferior to NIPPV.

METHODS

We conducted a pragmatic, comparative-effectiveness, noninferiority study utilizing network-based real-world data from 22 Canadian NICUs. Centers self-selected CPAP or NIPPV as their standard postextubation mode for preterm neonates <29 weeks' gestation. The primary outcome was failure of the initial mode ≤72 hours. Secondary outcomes included failure ≤7 days, and reintubation ≤72 hours and ≤7 days. Groups were compared using a noninferiority adjusted risk-difference (aRD) margin of 0.05, and margin of no difference.

RESULTS

A total of 843 infants extubated to CPAP and 974 extubated to NIPPV were included. CPAP was not noninferior (and inferior) to NIPPV for failure of the initial mode ≤72 hours (33.0% vs 26.3%; aRD 0.07 [0.03 to 0.12], Pnoninferiority(NI) = .86), and ≤7 days (40.7% vs 35.8%; aRD 0.09 [0.05 to 0.13], PNI = 0.97). However, CPAP was noninferior (and equivalent) to NIPPV for reintubation ≤72 hours (13.2% vs 16.1%; aRD 0.01 [-0.05 to 0.02], PNI < .01), and noninferior (and superior) for reintubation ≤7 days (16.4% vs 22.8%; aRD -0.04 [-0.07 to -0.001], PNI < .01).

CONCLUSIONS

CPAP was not noninferior to NIPPV for failure ≤72 hours postextubation; however, it was noninferior to NIPPV for reintubation ≤72 hours and ≤7 days. This suggests CPAP may be a reasonable initial postextubation mode if alternate rescue strategies are available.

Process and Outcome Measures for Infants Born Moderate and Late Preterm in Tertiary Canadian Neonatal Intensive Care Units

OBJECTIVE

To describe the prevalence of and between-center variations in care practices and clinical outcomes of moderate and late preterm infants (MLPIs) admitted to tertiary Canadian neonatal intensive care units (NICUs).

STUDY DESIGN

This was a retrospective cohort study including infants born at 320/7 through 366/7 weeks of gestation and admitted to 25 NICUs participating in the Canadian Neonatal Network between 2015 and 2020. Patient characteristics, process measures represented by care practices, and outcome measures represented by clinical in-hospital and discharge outcomes were reported by gestational age weeks. NICUs were compared using indirect standardization after adjustment for patient characteristics.

RESULTS

Among 25 669 infants (17% of MLPIs born in Canada during the study period) included, 45% received deferred cord clamping, 7% had admission hypothermia, 47% received noninvasive respiratory support, 11% received mechanical ventilation, 8% received surfactant, 40% received antibiotics in the first 3 days, 4% did not receive feeding in the first 2 days, and 77% had vascular access. Mortality, early-onset sepsis, late-onset sepsis, or necrotizing enterocolitis occurred in <1% of the study cohort. Median (IQR) length of stay was 14 (9-21) days among infants discharged home from the admission hospital and 5 (3-9) days among infants transferred to community hospitals. Among infants discharged home, 33% were discharged on exclusive breastmilk and 75% on any breastmilk. There were significant variations between NICUs in all process and outcome measures.

CONCLUSIONS

Care practices and outcomes of MLPIs varied significantly between Canadian NICUs. Standardization of process and outcome quality measures for this population will enable benchmarking and research, facilitating systemwide improvements.

Prediction Models for Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia in Preterm Infants: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To review systematically and assess the accuracy of prediction models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) at 36 weeks of postmenstrual age.

STUDY DESIGN

Searches were conducted in MEDLINE and EMBASE. Studies published between 1990 and 2022 were included if they developed or validated a prediction model for BPD or the combined outcome death/BPD at 36 weeks in the first 14 days of life in infants born preterm. Data were extracted independently by 2 authors following the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (ie, CHARMS) and PRISMA guidelines. Risk of bias was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (ie, PROBAST).

RESULTS

Sixty-five studies were reviewed, including 158 development and 108 externally validated models. Median c-statistic of 0.84 (range 0.43-1.00) was reported at model development, and 0.77 (range 0.41-0.97) at external validation. All models were rated at high risk of bias, due to limitations in the analysis part. Meta-analysis of the validated models revealed increased c-statistics after the first week of life for both the BPD and death/BPD outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Although BPD prediction models perform satisfactorily, they were all at high risk of bias. Methodologic improvement and complete reporting are needed before they can be considered for use in clinical practice. Future research should aim to validate and update existing models.

Neonatal intensive care unit occupancy rate and probability of discharge of very preterm infants

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of NICU occupancy with probability of discharge and length of stay (LOS) among infants born <33 weeks gestational age (GA).

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective study of 3388 infants born 23-32 weeks GA, admitted to five Level 3/4 NICUs (2014-2018) and discharged alive. Standardized ratios of observed-to-expected number of discharges were calculated for each quintile of unit occupancy. Multivariable linear regression models were used to assess the association between occupancy and LOS.

RESULTS

At the lowest unit occupancy quintiles (Q1 and Q2), infants were 12% and 11% less likely to be discharged compared to the expected number. At the highest unit occupancy quintile (Q5), infants were 20% more likely to be discharged. Highest occupancy (Q5) was also associated with a 4.7-day (95% CI 1.7, 7.7) reduction in LOS compared Q1.

CONCLUSION

NICU occupancy was associated with likelihood of discharge and LOS among infants born <33 weeks GA.

Association of nurse staffing and unit occupancy with mortality and morbidity among very preterm infants: a multicentre study

OBJECTIVE

In a healthcare system with finite resources, hospital organisational factors may contribute to patient outcomes. We aimed to assess the association of nurse staffing and neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) occupancy with outcomes of preterm infants born <33 weeks' gestation.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Four level III NICUs.

PATIENTS

Infants born 23-32 weeks' gestation 2015-2018.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Nursing provision ratios (nursing hours worked/recommended nursing hours based on patient acuity categories) and unit occupancy rates were averaged for the first shift, 24 hours and 7 days of admission of each infant. Primary outcome was mortality/morbidity (bronchopulmonary dysplasia, severe neurological injury, retinopathy of prematurity, necrotising enterocolitis and nosocomial infection). ORs for association of exposure with outcomes were estimated using generalised linear mixed models adjusted for confounders.

RESULTS

Among 1870 included infants, 823 (44%) had mortality/morbidity. Median nursing provision ratio was 1.03 (IQR 0.89-1.22) and median unit occupancy was 89% (IQR 82-94). In the first 24 hours of admission, higher nursing provision ratio was associated with lower odds of mortality/morbidity (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.98), and higher unit occupancy was associated with higher odds of mortality/morbidity (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.36). In causal mediation analysis, nursing provision ratios mediated 47% of the association between occupancy and outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

NICU occupancy is associated with mortality/morbidity among very preterm infants and may reflect lack of adequate resources in periods of high activity. Interventions aimed at reducing occupancy and maintaining adequate resources need to be considered as strategies to improve patient outcomes.

Predicting clinical outcomes using artificial intelligence and machine learning in neonatal intensive care units: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Advances in technology, data availability, and analytics have helped improve quality of care in the neonatal intensive care unit.

OBJECTIVE

To provide an in-depth review of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning techniques being utilized to predict neonatal outcomes.

METHODS

The PRISMA protocol was followed that considered articles from established digital repositories. Included articles were categorized based on predictions of: (a) major neonatal morbidities such as sepsis, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, intraventricular hemorrhage, necrotizing enterocolitis, and retinopathy of prematurity; (b) mortality; and (c) length of stay.

RESULTS

A total of 366 studies were considered; 68 studies were eligible for inclusion in the review. The current set of predictor models are primarily built on supervised learning and mostly used regression models built on retrospective data.

CONCLUSION

With the availability of EMR data and data-sharing of NICU outcomes across neonatal research networks, machine learning algorithms have shown breakthrough performance in predicting neonatal disease.

The association between BMI trajectories and bronchopulmonary dysplasia among very preterm infants

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between change in body mass index (BMI) from birth to 36 weeks gestation (ΔBMI) and bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) among infants born <30 weeks gestation.

METHODS

This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study (2015-2018) of infants born <30 weeks gestation and alive at ≥34 weeks corrected. Main exposure was a change in BMI z score from birth to 36 weeks corrected age grouped into quartiles of change. Association between ΔBMI z scores and BPD was assessed using generalized linear mixed models.

RESULTS

Among 772 included infants, 51% developed BPD. From birth to 36 weeks CGA, the weight z score of infants with BPD decreased less than for BPD-free infants, despite a greater decrease in length z score and similar caloric intake resulting in increases in BMI z score (median [IQR], 0.16 [-0.64; 1.03] vs -0.29 [-1.03; 0.49]; P < 0.01). In the adjusted analysis, higher ΔBMI z score quartiles were associated with higher odds of BPD (Q3 vs Q2, AOR [95% CI], 2.02 [1.23; 3.31] and Q4 vs Q2, AOR [95% CI], 2.00 [1.20; 3.34]).

CONCLUSION

Among preterm infants, an increase in BMI z score from birth to 36 weeks corrected is associated with higher odds of BPD.

IMPACT

Preterm infants with evolving lung disease often experience disproportionate growth in the neonatal period. In this multicenter cohort study, increases in BMI z score from birth to 36 weeks CGA were associated with higher odds of BPD. Despite similar caloric intake, infants with BPD had a higher weight- but lower length-for-age, resulting in higher BMI z score compared to BPD-free infants. This suggests that infants with evolving BPD may require different growth and nutritional targets compared to BPD-free infants.

Organizational Risk Factors and Clinical Impacts of Unplanned Extubation in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit

OBJECTIVES

To assess the association between organizational factors and unplanned extubation events in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) and to evaluate the association between unplanned extubation event and bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) among infants born at <29 weeks of gestational age.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a retrospective cohort study of infants admitted to a tertiary care NICU between 2016 and 2019. Nursing provision ratios, daily nursing overtime hours/total nursing hours ratio, and unit occupancy were compared between days with and days without unplanned extubation events. The association between unplanned extubation events (with and without reintubation) and the risk of BPD was evaluated in infants born at <29 weeks who required mechanical ventilation using a propensity score-matched cohort. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between exposures and outcomes while adjusting for confounders.

RESULTS

On 108 of 1370 days there was ≥1 unplanned extubation event for a total of 116 unplanned extubation event events. Higher median nursing overtime hours (20 hours vs 16 hours) and overtime ratios (3.3% vs 2.5%) were observed on days with an unplanned extubation event compared with days without an unplanned extubation event (P = .01). Overtime ratio was associated with higher adjusted odds of a unplanned extubation event (aOR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01-1.18). In the subgroup of infants born at <29 weeks, those with an unplanned extubation event who were reintubated had a longer postmatching duration of mechanical ventilation (aOR, 13.06; 95% CI, 4.88-37.69) and odds of BPD (aOR, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.01-8.58) compared with those without an unplanned extubation event.

CONCLUSIONS

Nursing overtime ratio is associated with an increased number of unplanned extubation events in the NICU. In infants born at <29 weeks of gestational age, reintubation after an unplanned extubation event is associated with a longer duration of mechanical ventilation and increased risk of BPD.

Antimicrobial utilization in very-low-birth-weight infants: association with probiotic use

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between probiotic use and antimicrobial utilization.

STUDY DESIGN

We retrospectively evaluated very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants admitted to tertiary neonatal intensive care units in Canada between 2014 and 2019. Our outcome was antimicrobial utilization rate (AUR) defined as number of days of antimicrobial exposure per 1000 patient-days.

RESULT

Of 16,223 eligible infants, 7279 (45%) received probiotics. Probiotic use rate increased from 10% in 2014 to 68% in 2019. The AUR was significantly lower in infants who received probiotics vs those who did not (107 vs 129 per 1000 patient-days, aRR = 0.89, 95% CI [0.81, 0.98]). Among 13,305 infants without culture-proven sepsis or necrotizing enterocolitis ≥Stage 2, 5931 (45%) received probiotics. Median AUR was significantly lower in the probiotic vs the no-probiotic group (78 vs 97 per 1000 patient-days, aRR = 0.85, 95% CI [0.74, 0.97]).

CONCLUSION

Probiotic use was associated with a significant reduction in AUR among VLBW infants.

Association of Delivery Room and Neonatal Intensive Care Unit Intubation, and Number of Tracheal Intubation Attempts with Death or Severe Neurological Injury among Preterm Infants

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to assess the association of tracheal intubation (TI) and where it is performed, and the number of TI attempts with death and/or severe neurological injury (SNI) among preterm infants.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study of infants born 23 to 32 weeks, admitted to a single level-3 neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) between 2015 and 2018. Exposures were location of TI (delivery room [DR] vs. NICU) and number of TI attempts (1 vs. >1). Primary outcome was death and/or SNI (intraventricular hemorrhage grade 3-4 and/or periventricular leukomalacia). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess association between exposures and outcomes and to adjust for confounders.

RESULTS

Rate of death and/or SNI was 2.5% (6/240) among infants never intubated, 12% (13/105) among NICU TI, 32% (31/97) among DR TI, 20% (17/85) among infants with one TI attempt and 23% (27/117) among infants with >1 TI attempt. Overall, median number of TI attempts was 1 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1-2). Compared with no TI, DR TI (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 9.04, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.21-28.84) and NICU TI (AOR: 3.42, 95% CI: 1.21-10.61) were associated with higher odds of death and/or SNI. The DR TI was associated with higher odds of death and/or SNI compared with NICU TI (AOR: 2.64, 95% CI: 1.17-6.22). The number of intubation attempts (1 vs. >1) was not associated with death and/or SNI (AOR: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.47-2.03).

CONCLUSION

The DR TI is associated with higher odds of death and/or SNI compared with NICU TI, and may help identify higher risk infants. There was no association between the number of TI attempts and death and/or SNI.

KEY POINTS

· Delivery room intubation correlates with morbidity.. · Less than 2 intubation attempts are not associated with IVH.. · Provider training reduces intubation attempts..

Perinatal risk factors for mortality in very preterm infants-A nationwide, population-based discriminant analysis

Aim

To assess the strength of associations between interrelated perinatal risk factors and mortality in very preterm infants.

Methods

Information on all live‐born infants delivered in Sweden at 22–31 weeks of gestational age (GA) from 2011 to 2019 was gathered from the Swedish Neonatal Quality Register, excluding infants with major malformations or not resuscitated because of anticipated poor prognosis. Twenty‐seven perinatal risk factors available at birth were exposures and in‐hospital mortality outcome. Orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis was applied to assess proximity between individual risk factors and mortality, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to estimate discriminant ability.

Results

In total, 638 of 8,396 (7.6%) infants died. Thirteen risk factors discriminated reduced mortality; the most important were higher Apgar scores at 5 and 10 min, GA and birthweight. Restricting the analysis to preterm infants <28 weeks’ GA (n = 2939, 16.9% mortality) added antenatal corticosteroid therapy as significantly associated with lower mortality. The area under the ROC curve (the C‐statistic) using all risk factors was 0.86, as determined after both internal and external validation.

Conclusion

Apgar scores, gestational age and birthweight show stronger associations with mortality in very preterm infants than several other perinatal risk factors available at birth.

Comparison of Three Nursing Workload Assessment Tools in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit and Their Association with Outcomes of Very Preterm Infants

OBJECTIVE

Nursing workload assessment tools are widely used to determine nurse staffing requirements in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). We aimed to compare three existing workload assessment tools and assess their association with mortality or morbidity among very preterm infants.

STUDY DESIGN

Single-center retrospective cohort study of infants born <33 weeks and admitted to a 52-bed tertiary NICU in 2017 to 2018. Required nurse staffing was estimated for each shift using the Winnipeg Assessment of Neonatal Nursing Needs Tool (WANNNT) used as reference tool, the Quebec Provincial NICU Nursing Ratio (QPNNR), and the Canadian NICU Resource Utilization (CNRU). Poisson regression models with robust error variance estimators were used to assess the association between nursing provision ratios (actual number of nurses/required number of nurses) during the first 7 days of admission and neonatal outcomes.

RESULTS

Median number of nurses required per shift using the WANNNT was 25.0 (interquartile range [IQR]: 23.1-26.7). Correlation between WANNNT and QPNNR was high (r = 0.92, p < 0.0001), but the QPNNR underestimated the number of nurses per shift by 4.8 (IQR: 4.1-5.4). Correlation between WANNNT and CNRU was moderate (r = 0.45, p < 0.0001). The NICU nursing provision ratios during the first 7 days of admission calculated using the WANNNT (adjusted risk ratio [aRR]: 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93-0.99) and QPNNR (aRR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.95-0.99) were associated with mortality or morbidity.

CONCLUSION

Lower nursing provision ratio calculated using the WANNNT and CNRU during the first 7 days of admission is associated with an increased risk of mortality/morbidity in very preterm infants.

KEY POINTS

· NICUs use different nursing workload assessment tools.. · We validated three different nursing workload assessment tools used in the NICU.. · Nursing provision ratio is associated the risk of mortality/morbidity in preterm infants..

Association of umbilical cord blood gas values with mortality and severe neurologic injury in preterm neonates <29 weeks' gestation: a national cohort study

BACKGROUND

Umbilical cord arterial and venous blood gas values reflect the acid-base balance status of a newborn at birth. Derangement in these values has been linked to poor neonatal outcomes in term and late preterm neonates; however, the utility of these values in preterm neonates of <29 weeks' gestation is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine the associations of umbilical cord arterial and venous blood gas values with neonatal mortality and severe neurologic injury in extremely preterm neonates and to identify the cutoff values associated with 2.5-fold increases or decreases in the posttest probabilities of outcomes.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a retrospective cohort study of neonates who were born at 23+0 to 28+6 weeks' gestation between January 1, 2018 and December 31, 2019, and who were admitted to neonatal units in Canada.

EXPOSURE

Various cut-offs of umbilical cord blood gas values and lactate values were studied.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcomes were mortality before discharge from the neonatal unit and severe neurologic injury defined as grade 3 or 4 periventricular or intraventricular hemorrhage or periventricular leukomalacia. The outcome rates were calculated for various cutoff values of umbilical cord blood gas parameters and were adjusted for birthweight, gestational age, sex, and multiple births. Likelihood ratios were calculated to derive posttest probabilities.

RESULTS

A total of 1040 and 1217 neonates had analyzable umbilical cord arterial and venous blood gas values, respectively. In the cohort, the mean (standard deviation) gestational age was 26.5 (1.5) weeks, the mean birthweight was 936 (215) g, the prevalence of mortality was 10% (105/1040), and the prevalence of severe neurologic injury was 9% (92/1016). An umbilical cord arterial pH of ≤7.1 and base excess of ≤-12 mmol/L were associated with >2.5-fold higher posttest probability of mortality, and an umbilical cord arterial or venous lactate value of <3 was associated with a 2.5-fold lower posttest probability of mortality. An umbilical cord arterial base excess of <-16 mmol/L was associated with a higher posttest probability of severe neurologic injury, whereas a lactate value of <3 was associated with a lower posttest probability.

CONCLUSION

In preterm neonates of <29 weeks' gestation, low umbilical cord arterial pH and high umbilical cord arterial base excess values were associated with a clinically important increase in the posttest probability of mortality, whereas low umbilical cord arterial or venous lactate values were associated with a decrease in the posttest probability of mortality.

Association of timing of birth with mortality among preterm infants born in Canada

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between time of birth and mortality among preterm infants.

STUDY DESIGN

Population-based study of infants born 22-36 weeks gestation (GA) in Canada from 2010 to 2015 (n = 173 789). Multivariable logistic regression models assessed associations between timing of birth and mortality.

RESULT

Among infants 22-27 weeks GA, evening birth was associated with higher mortality than daytime birth (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.29). Among infants 28-32 weeks GA and 33-36 weeks GA, night birth was associated with lower mortality than daytime birth (AOR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59-0.95; AOR 0.78, 95% CI 0.62-0.99, respectively). Sensitivity analysis excluding infants with major congenital anomaly revealed that associations between hour of birth and mortality among infants born 28-32 and 33-36 weeks GA decreased or were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

Higher mortality among extremely preterm infants during off-peak hours may suggest variations in available resources based on time of day.

Impact of a “Brain Protection Bundle” in Reducing Severe Intraventricular Hemorrhage in Preterm Infants <30 Weeks GA: A Retrospective Single Centre Study

Background: despite advances in perinatal care, periventricular/intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) continues to remain high in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) worldwide. Studies have demonstrated the benefits of implementing interventions during the antenatal period, stabilization after birth (golden hour management) and postnatally in the first 72 h to reduce the incidence of IVH. Objective: to compare the incidence of severe intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH ≥ Grade III) before and after implementation of a “brain protection bundle” in preterm infants <30 weeks GA. Study design: a pre- and post-implementation retrospective cohort study to compare the incidence of severe IVH following execution of a “brain protection bundle for the first 72 h from 2015 to 2018. Demographics, management practices at birth and in the NICU, cranial ultrasound results and short-term morbidities were compared. Results: a total of 189 and 215 infants were included in the pre- and post-implementation phase, respectively. No difference in the incidence of severe IVH (6.9% vs. 9.8%, p = 0.37) was observed on the first cranial scan performed after 72 h of age. Conclusion: the implementation of a “brain protection bundle” was not effective in reducing the incidence of severe IVH within the first 72 h of life in our centre.

Outcomes of Extremely Premature Infants Comparing Patent Ductus Arteriosus Management Approaches

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the change in the proportion of deaths/bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) among premature infants (born <26 and 26-29 weeks of gestational age) following a policy change to a strict nonintervention approach, compared with standard treatment.

STUDY DESIGN

We examined 1249 infants (341 born <26 weeks of gestational age) at 2 comparable sites. Site 1 (control) continued medical treatment/ligation, and site 2 (exposed) changed to a nonintervention policy in late 2013. Using the difference-in-differences approach, which accounts for time-invariant differences between sites and secular trends, we assessed changes in death or BPD separately among infants born 26-29 weeks and <26 weeks of gestational age in 2 epochs (epoch 1: 2011-2013; epoch 2: 2014-2017).

RESULTS

Baseline characteristics were similar across sites and epochs. Medical treatment/ligation use remained stable at site 1 but declined progressively to 0% at site 2, indicating adherence to policy. We saw no difference in death/BPD among infants born at 26-29 weeks of gestational age (12%, 95% CI -1% to 24%). However, incidence of death/BPD increased by 31% among infants born <26 weeks of gestational age (95% CI 10%-51%) in site 2, whereas there was no change in outcomes in site 1. The Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology-Version II, used as a control outcome, did not change in either site, suggesting that our findings were not due to changes in patients' severity.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to a strict conservative policy did not impact death or BPD among 26 weeks but was associated with a significant rise in infants born <26 weeks.

Prognostic Models Predicting Mortality in Preterm Infants: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Prediction models can be a valuable tool in performing risk assessment of mortality in preterm infants.

OBJECTIVE

Summarizing prognostic models for predicting mortality in very preterm infants and assessing their quality.

DATA SOURCES

Medline was searched for all articles (up to June 2020).

STUDY SELECTION

All developed or externally validated prognostic models for mortality prediction in liveborn infants born <32 weeks' gestation and/or <1500 g birth weight were included.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data were extracted by 2 independent authors. Risk of bias (ROB) and applicability assessment was performed by 2 independent authors using Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool.

RESULTS

One hundred forty-two models from 35 studies reporting on model development and 112 models from 33 studies reporting on external validation were included. ROB assessment revealed high ROB in the majority of the models, most often because of inadequate (reporting of) analysis. Internal and external validation was lacking in 41% and 96% of these models. Meta-analyses revealed an average C-statistic of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83-0.91) for the Clinical Risk Index for Babies score, 0.87 (95% CI: 0.81-0.92) for the Clinical Risk Index for Babies II score, and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.78-0.92) for the Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology Perinatal Extension II score.

LIMITATIONS

Occasionally, an external validation study was included, but not the development study, because studies developed in the presurfactant era or general NICU population were excluded.

CONCLUSIONS

Instead of developing additional mortality prediction models for preterm infants, the emphasis should be shifted toward external validation and consecutive adaption of the existing prediction models.

Neurodevelopmental and growth outcomes of extremely preterm infants with necrotizing enterocolitis or spontaneous intestinal perforation

PURPOSE

To evaluate neurodevelopment and growth in extremely preterm infants with or without necrotizing enterocolitis or spontaneous intestinal perforation.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of infants admitted to Canadian neonatal intensive care units in 2010 to 2011. We assessed outcomes at 18 to 24 months' corrected ages for preterm infants <29 weeks of gestational age at birth with spontaneous intestinal perforation or non-perforated or perforated necrotizing enterocolitis, and for preterm infants with none of these gastrointestinal complications. The primary outcome was a composite of death or significant neurodevelopmental impairment at 18 to 24 months' corrected age. We used multivariable logistic regression models to adjust for gestational age, small for gestational age, prenatal steroids, cesarean section, multiple gestations, and SNAP-II score.

RESULTS

Of 2,019 infants total, 39 (1.9%) had spontaneous intestinal perforation, 61 (3%) had perforated necrotizing enterocolitis, and 115 (5.7%) had non-perforated necrotizing enterocolitis. Infants with spontaneous intestinal perforation (aOR 2.11; 95% CI 1.01-4.42), necrotizing enterocolitis (aOR 2.58; 95% CI 1.81-3.68), or any bowel perforation (aOR 3.97; CI 2.43-6.48) had higher odds of death or significant neurodevelopmental impairment compared to infants with none of these bowel diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Spontaneous intestinal perforation, necrotizing enterocolitis, or any bowel perforation are risk factors for death or significant neurodevelopmental impairment in extremely preterm infants.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Study type: prognosis study (cohort study: retrospective) LEVEL OF EVIDENCE RATING: II.

Operational Recommendations for Scarce Resource Allocation in a Public Health Crisis

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic may require rationing of various medical resources if demand exceeds supply. Theoretical frameworks for resource allocation have provided much needed ethical guidance, but hospitals still need to address objective practicalities and legal vetting to operationalize scarce resource allocation schemata. To develop operational scarce resource allocation processes for public health catastrophes, including the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, five health systems in Maryland formed a consortium—with diverse expertise and representation—representing more than half of all hospitals in the state. Our efforts built on a prior statewide community engagement process that determined the values and moral reference points of citizens and health-care professionals regarding the allocation of ventilators during a public health catastrophe. Through a partnership of health systems, we developed a scarce resource allocation framework informed by citizens’ values and by general expert consensus. Allocation schema for mechanical ventilators, ICU resources, blood components, novel therapeutics, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and renal replacement therapies were developed. Creating operational algorithms for each resource posed unique challenges; each resource’s varying nature and underlying data on benefit prevented any single algorithm from being universally applicable. The development of scarce resource allocation processes must be iterative, legally vetted, and tested. We offer our processes to assist other regions that may be faced with the challenge of rationing health-care resources during public health catastrophes.

Global incidence of Necrotizing Enterocolitis: a systematic review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Necrotizing Enterocolitis (NEC) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU), yet the global incidence of NEC has not been systematically evaluated. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies reporting the incidence of NEC in infants with Very Low Birth Weight (VLBW).

METHODS

The databases searched included PubMed, MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library, EMBASE and grey literature. Eligible studies were cohort or population-based studies of newborns including registry data reporting incidence of NEC. Incidence were pooled using Random Effect Models (REM), in the presence of substantial heterogeneity. Additional, bias adjusted Quality Effect Models (QEM) were used to get sensitivity estimates. Subgroup analysis and meta-regression were used to explore the sources of heterogeneity. Funnel plots as appropriate for ratio measures were used to assess publication bias.

RESULTS

A systematic and comprehensive search of databases identified 27 cohort studies reporting the incidence of NEC. The number of neonate included in these studies was 574,692. Of this 39,965 developed NEC. There were substantial heterogeneity between studies (I2 = 100%). The pooled estimate of NEC based on REM was 7.0% (95% CI: 6.0-8.0%). QEM based estimate (6.0%; 95% CI: 4.0-9.0%) were also similar. Funnel plots showed no evidence of publication bias. Although, NEC estimates are similar across various regions, some variation between high and low income countries were noted. Meta regression findings showed a statistically significant increase of NEC over time, quantified by the publication year.

CONCLUSION

Seven out of 100 of all VLBW infants in NICU are likely to develop NEC. However, there were considerable heterogeneity between studies. High quality studies assessing incidence of NEC along with associated risk factors are warranted.

Outcomes and care practices for preterm infants born at less than 33 weeks' gestation: a quality-improvement study

BACKGROUND

Preterm birth is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children younger than 5 years. We report the changes in neonatal outcomes and care practices among very preterm infants in Canada over 14 years within a national, collaborative, continuous quality-improvement program.

METHODS

We retrospectively studied infants born at 23-32 weeks' gestation who were admitted to tertiary neonatal intensive care units that participated in the Evidence-based Practice for Improving Quality program in the Canadian Neonatal Network from 2004 to 2017. The primary outcome was survival without major morbidity during the initial hospital admission. We quantified changes using process-control charts in 6-month intervals to identify special-cause variations, adjusted regression models for yearly changes, and interrupted time series analyses.

RESULTS

The final study population included 50 831 infants. As a result of practice changes, survival without major morbidity increased significantly (56.6% [669/1183] to 70.9% [1424/2009]; adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.10, per year) across all gestational ages. Survival of infants born at 23-25 weeks' gestation increased (70.8% [97/137] to 74.5% [219/294]; adjusted OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.05, per year). Changes in care practices included increased use of antenatal steroids (83.6% [904/1081] to 88.1% [1747/1983]), increased rates of normothermia at admission (44.8% [520/1160] to 67.5% [1316/1951]) and reduced use of pulmonary surfactant (52.8% [625/1183] to 42.7% [857/2009]).

INTERPRETATION

Network-wide quality-improvement activities that include better implementation of optimal care practices can yield sustained improvement in survival without morbidity in very preterm infants.

Predicting the likelihood of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in premature neonates

Introduction: Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is the most common serious pulmonary morbidity in premature infants. Despite ongoing advances in neonatal care, the incidence of BPD has not improved. A potential explanation for this phenomenon is the limited ability for accurate early prediction of the risk of BPD. BPD continues to represent a therapeutic challenge and no single effective therapy exists for this condition. Areas covered: Here, we review risk factors of BPD derived from clinical data, biological fluid biomarkers, respiratory management data, and scientific advancements using 'omics' technologies, and their ability to predict the pathogenesis of BPD in preterm neonates. Risk factors and biomarkers were identified via literature search with a focus on the last 5 years of data. Expert opinion: The most accurate predictive tools utilize risk factors that encompass a variety of categories. Numerous predictive models have been proposed but suffer from a lack of adequate validation. An ideal model should include multiple, easily measurable variables validated across a heterogeneous population. In addition to evaluating recent BPD prediction models, we suggest approaches to enhance future models.

The Clinical Risk Index for Babies II for Prediction of Time-Dependent Mortality and Short-Term Morbidities in Very Low Birth Weight Infants

BACKGROUND

A simple predictive indicator of mortality and morbidities is essential to assess neonatal illness severity and plan proper management.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to test the time-dependent performance of the Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB) II in predicting mortality and major short-term morbidities among very low birth weight infants (VLBWIs).

METHODS

This population-based prospective study from 67 Korean Neonatal Network centers performed between 2013 and 2016 included 5,296 VLBWIs with CRIB II calculation and 6,398 infants with CRIB II calculation but without the base excess (CRIB II-BE). A regression model predicting time-dependent mortality and morbidities using the CRIB II score was designed. The discriminate ability of the CRIB II and CRIB II-BE scores in predicting mortality and morbidities was explored using receiver-operating characteristic analysis.

RESULTS

CRIB II performed significantly better in predicting mortality than did gestational age or birth weight alone. The time-dependent performance of CRIB II was good in the first 30 days (area under the curve [AUC], 0.8435) and at 31-90 days (AUC, 0.8458). However, it was poor after 90 days (AUC, 0.6576). Specific CRIB II cutoffs were associated with severe intraventricular hemorrhage (AUC, 0.81), bronchopulmonary dysplasia (AUC, 0.77), and mortality or major morbidities (AUC, 0.80), respectively. The model using CRIB II-BE showed similar performance in predicting mortality and morbidities to that of the CRIB II model.

CONCLUSION

Certain CRIB II cutoffs were significantly associated with time-dependent mortality, particularly within the first 90 days after birth as well as with short-term morbidities.

Current monitoring and innovative predictive modeling to improve care in the pediatric cardiac intensive care unit

The objectives of this review are (I) to describe the challenges associated with monitoring patients in the pediatric cardiac intensive care unit (PCICU) and (II) to discuss the use of innovative statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) software programs to attempt to predict significant clinical events. Patients cared for in the PCICU are clinically fragile and at risk for fatal decompensation. Current monitoring modalities are often ineffective, sometimes inaccurate, and fail to detect a deteriorating clinical status in a timely manner. Predictive models created by AI and machine learning may lead to earlier detection of patients at risk for clinical decompensation and thereby improve care for critically ill pediatric cardiac patients.