Explaining recent fertility increase in Central Asia

Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan

The fertility rates of Kazakhstan have reversed to levels not seen for several decades. The striking fertility increase poses questions regarding the extent to which this new development is shared across socio-demographic groups and the nature of fertility recuperation. The current study employs UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data and event-history modelling to analyse parity progressions to one, two, three, and four children. The results suggest a sustained fertility increase that is not merely associated with the recuperation of delayed first births, but a genuine increase across all birth orders. This pattern is evident for both main ethnicities in Kazakhstan and across educational groups. The gradual increase of higher-order births, especially among ethnic Kazakhs, indicates a reversed fertility transition and also that the previous fertility decline in the 1990s was not part of a general transition towards below-replacement fertility but rather a reflection of economic crisis after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Qualitative document analysis on Iranian contents and trends of population policies: Lessons learned and avenues for future

Population-related policies are among macro-strategic policies considered by all governments in the world. To achieve the desired population structure, it is first necessary to identify the general policy approach over time. This article aims to identify the main requirements of population policies during the last 70 years in Iran. This is a qualitative content analysis study conducted via the analysis of all relevant national policy documents from 1951 to 2022. To retrieve the relevant documents, we searched the official website of eight policymaking bodies in Iran. After identifying the documents, their eligibility was evaluated using Scott's method, and as a result, 40 documents were selected for analysis. Finally, we used a qualitative content analysis to synthesize the data using MAXQDA version 10. The findings showed that the political requirements for population reduction can be classified into four main themes of "Religious, scientific, and legal infrastructure", "Changes in the rules", "Institution building, programming and division of tasks", and "Information and service provision", with 11 sub-themes. Furthermore, the political requirements for an increasing population can be divided into six main themes of "Education & acculturation", "Legal dos, and don'ts", "Financial and non-financial support for families", "Structural and information infrastructure", "Health services", and "Stewardship", with 30 sub-themes. In this study, by an all-round look, and the analysis of policies of the last 70 years of Iran, it was determined how the population policies originate from the political-cultural background of society, and provide the ground for the changes in the cultural-social, political, and economic structures and as a result demographic change. In other words, the main requirements to formulate the population increase and decrease policies in Iran as a country with golden experiences to implement the population policies were shown; which can be helpful as a guide to formulate the population policies in Iran and provide a model for successful policy making in the countries with a similar background to Iran.

AFTER FERTILITY'S NADIR? ETHNIC DIFFERENTIALS IN PARITY-SPECIFIC BEHAVIOURS IN KYRGYZSTAN

After a swift decline in the 1990s, the countries of Central Asia have experienced significant fertility increases over the last 15 years. These fertility upturns have remained off the radar of demographers. This study examines the recent fertility increase in Kyrgyzstan, focusing on fertility development by parity and among the main ethnic groups, in order to go beyond classic fertility indicators and national averages. Using a sample from the 2009 Census micro-dataset, sibling progression ratios were computed using information on the relationships and dates of birth of children under the age of 15. The results allow an analysis of the fertility increase by identifying the contribution of parity and ethnic group. It was found that the fertility increase in Kyrgyzstan has been experienced across the main ethnic groups, but their respective share in the population of the country has resulted in distinct contributions to the increase. Between 2001 and 2009, 82.4% of the fertility increase was due to an increase in the fertility of Kyrgyz women. In comparison, Uzbek and Russian women contributed 10.2% and 7.4%, respectively. By accounting for the parity component and ethnic factor, this study adds important disaggregated information, not only on family-building behaviours, but also on the social dimension, which is of prime importance for a better understanding of the demography of Central Asia. The study highlights important information on family-building behaviours, which are essential for the formulation of appropriate and more effective social policies aimed at sustaining and/or increasing fertility.