Energy and social factor decomposition to identify drivers impeding sustainable environmental transition in emerging countries: SDGs-2030 progress assessment using LMDI analysis

The balance between human growth, economic prosperity, and the consumption of hydrocarbon energy factors has become a prerequisite for environmental sustainability. However, the complexities of these factors force researchers to work for more viable combinations of such a balance. Therefore, this study attempted to determine the factors driving environmental sustainability in leading populated economies. For this purpose, the Logarithmic Mean Division Index (LMDI) utilized to decompose critical factors such as activity, economy, real density, energy intensity, and suburban effects for the period 1999-2022. Both population and its consequences (economic activity) have been found to be the leading factors behind environmental fluctuations, and energy has a negative impact on hydrocarbon forms, while contributing positively to environmental sustainability with high efficiency and low intensity. Therefore, sustainable demographic and energy transitions can be leading pathways for environmental sustainability in developing economies.

The Impact of Childhood Mortality on Fertility in Rural Tanzania: Evidence From the Ifakara and Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems

This manuscript examines the relationship between child mortality and subsequent fertility using longitudinal data on births and childhood deaths occurring among 15,291 Tanzanian mothers between 2000 and 2015. Generalized hazard regression analyses assess the effect of child loss on the hazard of conception, adjusting for child-level, mother-level, and contextual covariates. Results show that time to conception is most reduced if an index child dies during the subsequent birth interval, representing the combined effect of biological and volitional replacement. Deaths occurring during prior birth intervals were associated with accelerated time to conception during future intervals, consistent with hypothesized insurance effects of anticipating future child loss, but this effect is smaller than replacement effects. The analysis reveals that residence in areas of relatively high child mortality is associated with hastened parity progression, again consistent with the insurance hypothesis. Investigation of high-order interactions suggests that insurance effects tend to be greater in low-mortality communities, replacement effects tend to be stronger in high-mortality community contexts, and wealthier families tend to exhibit a weaker insurance response but a stronger replacement response to childhood mortality relative to poorer families.

Risk for referral to the child welfare system following parental relationship transitions in Norway

BACKGROUND

There is a lack of knowledge concerning how changes in family structures are associated with involvement in child welfare systems. Particularly little attention has been paid to the role of parental relationship transitions, which may involve major changes in the lives of children and parents in terms of housing, finances, and relationship boundaries between family members.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate how transitions in parental relationship status are linked to referrals to the child welfare system.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

All children born in Norway in 1995 (N = 60,218) and 2005 (N = 56,644) and their parents.

METHODS

This retrospective birth cohort study consisted of child welfare statistics merged with various registers from Statistics Norway. Logistic panel-data models were used to examine the relationship between the occurrence of a parental relationship transition and referral to the child welfare system. Four types of relationship transitions were analyzed: (1) couple to a single mother, (2) couple to a single father, (3) single mother to a couple, and (4) single father to a couple.

RESULTS

The occurrence of any type of relationship transition increased the likelihood of referral to the child welfare system in the year that the transition occurred, with the transitions to single motherhood, to single fatherhood, and from single fatherhood to a couple associated with greater odds of referral than the transition from single motherhood to a couple.

CONCLUSIONS

Understanding how parental relationship transitions are associated with referrals to the child welfare system is important to appropriately facilitate help to families in need.

Cultural niche construction with application to fertility control: A model for education and social transmission of contraceptive use

The evolution of a cultural trait may be affected by niche construction, or changes in the selective environment of that trait due to the inheritance of other cultural traits that make up a cultural background. This study investigates the evolution of a cultural trait, such as the acceptance of the idea of contraception, that is both vertically and horizontally transmitted within a homogeneous social network. Individuals may conform to the norm, and adopters of the trait have fewer progeny than others. In addition, adoption of this trait is affected by a vertically transmitted aspect of the cultural background, such as the preference for high or low levels of education. Our model shows that such cultural niche construction can facilitate the spread of traits with low Darwinian fitness while providing an environment that counteracts conformity to norms. In addition, niche construction can facilitate the 'demographic transition' by making reduced fertility socially accepted.

Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan

The fertility rates of Kazakhstan have reversed to levels not seen for several decades. The striking fertility increase poses questions regarding the extent to which this new development is shared across socio-demographic groups and the nature of fertility recuperation. The current study employs UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data and event-history modelling to analyse parity progressions to one, two, three, and four children. The results suggest a sustained fertility increase that is not merely associated with the recuperation of delayed first births, but a genuine increase across all birth orders. This pattern is evident for both main ethnicities in Kazakhstan and across educational groups. The gradual increase of higher-order births, especially among ethnic Kazakhs, indicates a reversed fertility transition and also that the previous fertility decline in the 1990s was not part of a general transition towards below-replacement fertility but rather a reflection of economic crisis after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Demographic and epidemiological transitions and burden of adolescent healthcare in sub-Saharan Africa: A review

This review's main objective is to discuss how demographic and epidemiological transitions relate to the burden of adolescent healthcare in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The review explicitly discussed the burden of adolescent healthcare, the current African policies on adolescent healthcare, and gaps in the African policies compared with Europe and North America. We also examined how adolescent healthcare policies evolve and documented the recommended essential part of the policy for enhancing its sustainability. The burden of adolescent health is high in SSA with diseases and reproductive health-related problems prevailing among adolescents. However, variations exist in the burden of adolescent healthcare across countries in the region. While some SSA countries are currently undergoing demographic and epidemiological transition processes concerning adolescent health care, the majority are either at an early stage of the transition or yet to commence the process. Policy-makers should consider effective ways to improve adolescents' health in SSA through preventive mechanisms and a multi-dimensional approach.

Demographic dividend-favorable policy environment in two pre-dividend African nations: review of national policies and prospects for policy amendments in Nigeria and Tanzania

BACKGROUND

In collaboration with local partners, we reviewed 18 national policy documents across two sub-Saharan African countries identified as pre-dividend nations by the World Bank in 2017: Nigeria and Tanzania. Our aim was to assess national policies in pre-dividend countries and to determine whether national strategies were primed to capitalize on changing demographic structures, maximally attain the demographic dividend, and augment socio-economic growth.

METHODS

We conducted policy reviews by focusing on five key sectors of the Gates Institute Demographic Dividend Framework: Family Planning, Maternal and Child Health, Education, Women's Empowerment, and Labor Market. This framework was developed as a tool for countries to apply targeted policies for accelerating the demographic dividend based on their demographic structure. For each component we used a comprehensive list of indicators, defined via a systematic literature review, through which we assessed national policies aimed at maximizing the demographic dividend.

RESULTS

Between the two countries, we observed persistent gaps in policies targeting family planning. Although more comprehensive, policies addressing maternal and child health, education, women's empowerment, and labor market still lagged in their specificity and measurability. We identified specific policy amendments and alternatives that Nigeria and Tanzania could consider to mitigate these gaps. We also stress the importance of designing measurable policy initiatives across sectors.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on these recommendations, as Nigeria, Tanzania, and other pre-dividend nations start experiencing rapid demographic changes, they may consider implementing routine policy reviews to strengthen policies across the five key sectors and harness the benefits of a demographic dividend.

Trends and factors associated with declining lifetime fertility among married women in Kenya between 2003 and 2014: an analysis of Kenya demographic health surveys

BACKGROUND

Globally, fertility has declined in the last three decades. In sub-Saharan Africa Including Kenya, this decline started more recent and at a slower pace compared to other regions. Despite a significant fertility decline in Kenya, there are disparities in intra- and interregional fertility. Reduction in lifetime fertility has health benefits for both the mother and child, thus it is important to improve women and children health outcomes associated with high fertility. The study, therefore evaluated the factors associate with change in lifetime fertility among married women of reproductive age in Kenya between 2003 and 2014.

METHODS

The study used the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) datasets of 2003, 2008 and 2014. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to calculate the mean number of children ever born and to assess the change in fertility across different factors. Poisson regression model with robust standard errors was used to study the relationship between number of children ever born (lifetime fertility) and independent variables. A Poisson-based multivariate decomposition for the nonlinear response model was performed to identify and quantify the contribution of demographic, socioeconomic and reproductive correlates, to the change in lifetime fertility between 2003 and 2014.

RESULTS

The study included 3,917, 4,002, and 7,332 weighted samples of women of reproductive age in 2003, 2008, and 2014, respectively. The mean number of children born declined from 3.8 (95% CI: 3.6-3.9) in 2003 to 3.5 (95% CI: 3.4--3.7) in 2008 and 3.4 (95% CI: 3.3-3.4) in 2014 (p = 0.001). The expected number of children reduced with the age at first sexual intercourse, the age at first marriage across the survey years, and household wealth index. Women who had lost one or more children in the past were likely to have increased number of children. The changes in the effects of women's characteristics between the surveys explained 96.4% of the decline. The main contributors to the change in lifetime fertility was the different in women level of education.

CONCLUSION

The lifetime fertility declined by one-tenth between 2003 and 2014; majorly as a result of the effects of characteristics of women in terms of level of education. These highlights a need to implement education policies that promotes women education focuses on gender equality and women empowerment. Continuous strengthening of the healthcare systems (access to quality antenatal care, skilled delivery, and postpartum care) to reduce child mortality is essential.

Harnessing Demographic Dividend Before it is Lost Forever in India

Based on the secondary data taken from Population Census, and the Employment-Unemployment Surveys and Periodic Labour Force Survey of the National Sample Survey, it is found that Indian economy is passing through a critical phase of economic development in which it is likely to lose its demographic advantage. Because, in India while about 4.5 million people were leaving agriculture every year prior to the Covid-19 pandemic years, the non-farm sectors job was not growing adequately to accommodate the persons leaving agriculture, and the newly educated non-farm job seekers. As a result there was an upsurge in educated youth unemployment (18% and about 24 million) rate, and hence the discouraged youth labour force. On the other hand, an increase in the share (from 8.0 to 10.2%) and growth (3.0-5.1%) of elderly population put a question on the process of harnessing demographic dividend in India. Based on these findings it is argued that an integrated approach of development is necessary to boost the labour force participation of youth and overall population to boost the growth of per capita national state domestic product (NSDP) in Indian states. This could be achieved through the promotion of micro and small enterprises along with infrastructure development along with a systematic emigration and remittances policy.

The Rise of Sonless Families in Asia and North Africa

A neglected consequence of declining fertility is the likely rise of families with children of one sex-only sons or only daughters. Increases in such families present important demographic shifts that may weaken patrilineal family systems. We assess whether sons-only and daughters-only families rose in Asia and North Africa from the early 1990s to around 2015. Using 88 surveys and two censuses, we examine how the number and sex composition of children of mothers aged 40-49 changed across 20 countries, representing 87% of the region's population and 54% of the global population. We also compare observed trends to sex-indifferent counterfactuals, quantify contributions of fertility declines with decompositions, and investigate subnational trends in China and India. Increases in sons-only families were universal where numbers of children fell. Growth of daughters-only families was suppressed in patrilineal contexts, but these sonless families still rose significantly in 13 of 18 countries where numbers declined. By 2015, over a quarter of families in the region had only sons and nearly a fifth only daughters. There was considerable variation across countries: recent levels ranged from 28.3% to 3.4% daughters-only and from 40.1% to 6.0% sons-only. China and the rest of East Asia had the highest shares.

Life After Loss: A Prospective Analysis of Mortality Exposure and Unintended Fertility

The relationship between mortality and fertility is a key component of demographic transition theory, placing it at the center of extensive inquiry. Among other linkages, mortality in women’s communities and social networks influences their subsequent fertility. Existing demographic research assumes this is principally due to volitional mechanisms, implying that exposure to mortality consolidates women’s desire to become pregnant, leading to intended fertility. Yet, insights from other disciplines suggest that mortality exposure could also increase women’s unintended fertility through psychological, relational, and behavioral mechanisms. This study examines the relationships between network mortality exposure and women’s hazard of pregnancy, and of unintended pregnancy specifically. We analyze two years (2009–2011) of closely spaced panel data on young Malawian women (N = 1,272) enrolled in the Tsogolo la Thanzi study. Our data include information on funeral attendance and fertility desires measured weeks before conception, which is confirmed through frequent pregnancy testing. Hazard models show that the number of funerals women attend corresponds with a higher hazard of pregnancy and of unintended pregnancy specifically. These findings make clear that mortality exposure can influence fertility not by shaping women’s desires but by disrupting the realization of those desires.

Transitioning to an obese India: Demographic and structural determinants of the rapid rise in overweight incidence

India, which has long suffered from undernutrition, has seen a rapid rise in overweight incidence in the last decade and a half. These changes are characterized by significant within-country differences in overweight incidence that vary by gender and regional development levels. In this paper, we provide an integrative framework, linking the income-gradient hypothesis of obesity with biological, obesogenic, and environmental factors to provide an explanation on the emergence of within-country differences in overweight patterns. We utilize measured body mass index (BMI), along with individual- and household-level data of over 800,000 men and women surveyed in the National Family Health Surveys of 2005-06 and 2015-16 to identify correlates of within-country differences in overweight incidence. A decomposition analysis reveals that among women, in addition to increasing access to obesogenic technologies, biological factors are associated with overweight incidence. Among men, obesogenic factors related to technology use and health behaviors are associated with the rise in overweight incidence, but biological factors are not. At lower levels of regional development, overweight incidence is associated with greater access to obesogenic technology such as motorized transport, which reduces physical activity among men at higher rates than women. At higher levels of economic development, obesogenic behaviors, such as watching more television and reducing smoking, are associated with overweight incidence. Our results corroborate the call by public health experts for group-specific policies to stem the rise of overweight incidence in developing countries.

In the Name of the Father? Fertility, Religion, and Child Naming in the Demographic Transition

This article shows that parents reveal information about their fertility behavior through how they name their children. I arrive at this finding from a detailed examination of the net fertility of 130,000 married couples in Ireland, a country known for its historically high fertility rate, circa 1911. After stringently accounting for couples' occupation, religion, and location, I find higher fertility rates among couples who chose distinctly Catholic names and traditional names for their children, with the latter being particularly important. Exposure to towns and cities lowered net fertility and weakened preferences for traditional and Catholic names. Cumulatively, these findings highlight the role of traditional rural norms over explicitly religious influences in driving high fertility rates in Ireland. The impact of towns and cities in reducing net fertility suggests that Ireland's sluggish urbanization was a key factor in its high historical fertility rate.

Births and deaths in Sidama in southern Ethiopia: findings from the 2018 Dale-Wonsho Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS)

Background

Sidama is one of the most densely populated areas in Ethiopia. Information about the demographic characteristics is scarce, and most studies were census based on interviews. Earlier population studies from Ethiopia did not sufficiently address the validity of measuring births, deaths, and age-composition.

Objective

To investigate the population characteristics in Sidama with an emphasis on fertility estimates, age, and death reporting.

Methods

This is a mixed-method cross-sectional study, conducted in Sidama in southern Ethiopia, using baseline data of newly established Dale-Wonsho Health and Demographic Surveillance System site in 2018. We used quantitative data of 5179 randomly selected households having 25,144 individuals. We collected information on deaths in the same study period and population from the traditional burial associations (Iddir). Qualitative data were collected using focus group discussions, and in-depth interviews. Life tables, age reliability indices and logistic regression were used to analyse the data.

Results

The total fertility rate was 2.9 children/woman, the crude birth rate was 22.8/1000 population and the crude death rate was 5.2/1000 population. The dependency ratio was 66/100 working-age population. Urban residents had higher birth rates (OR = 1.4 (95% CL: 1.05–1.78), and women with basic education had lower birth rates (OR = 0.6 (95% CL: 0.46–0.78) compared to those with no education. The age accuracy indices showed unreliable age reporting. The number of deaths increased from 29 to 132 when death reports from the Iddirs were included. There was under-reporting of neonatal and deaths of young children. Substituting national and regional mortality estimates, the life expectancy declined to an average of 53 years (range 48–58 years).

Conclusion

The fertility rate in Sidama is lower than previously reported and is affected by age, residence and education. As we have identified important measurement and reporting errors, future demographic surveillance sites should consider these limitations.

Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability

Background

With an increasing aging population and a lower ratio between the active and the dependent population, population aging is considered a global social and health challenge, associated with increased demand in health care needs and social pension. This study projects the Greek and Cypriot population to guide future planning of social and health policies and services.

Methods

The total population by sex and age groups, Total Fertility Rate (TFR), life-expectancies at birth and Potential Support Ratio PSR (persons aged 20–64 years per person 65+ years) are projected probabilistically by the year 2100 using Bayesian hierarchical models and United Nations’ population data for Greece and Cyprus from the period of 1950 to 2015.

Results

The TFR is projected to be around 1.5 children per woman in 2050 and around 1.75 in 2100 for both countries, with all values of prediction intervals being around or below the Replacement level fertility. PSR is expected to decrease remarkably and be 2.5 in 2050 and 1.6 in 2100 for Cyprus while for Greece it will be around 1.5 for both years 2050 and 2100. Life-expectancy is expected to increase to 84 years for men and 87 years for women in 2050 and 90 years for men and 94 years for women in 2100 for both countries. The share of the population aged 65 years and over is projected to increase in both countries and be the one third of the population by 2100.

Conclusions

Greece and Cyprus will acquire the characteristics of an aging population, putting a significance pressure on the social and health systems of both countries. Both countries should reform their social and health policy agenda to confront population aging and its consequence. They should adopt fertility incentives and family policies to increase fertility and migrants’ inclusiveness policies to improve the demographic structure and the economic activity. The national health systems should promote prevention strategies at the primary health sector and promote healthy aging while health research policy should aim to promote research in innovative technologies and digital health to create assistive technology for self-care and greater independence of older people.

Climate vulnerability of Swedish newborns: Gender differences and time trends of temperature-related neonatal mortality, 1880-1950

BACKGROUND

In resource-poor societies, neonatal mortality (death in the first 28 days of life) is usually very high. Young infants are particularly vulnerable to environmental health risks, which are modified by socioeconomic factors that change over time. We investigated the association between ambient temperature and neonatal mortality in northern Sweden during the demographic transition.

METHODS

Parish register data and temperature data in coastal Västerbotten, Sweden, between 1880 and 1950 were used. Total and sex-specific neonatal mortality was modelled as a function of mean temperature, adjusting for age, seasonality and calendar time, using discrete-time survival analysis. A linear threshold function was applied with a cut point at 14.5 °C (the minimum mortality temperature). Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed. Further analyses were stratified by study period (1800-1899, 1900-1929, and 1930-1950).

RESULTS

Neonatal mortality was 32.1 deaths/1000 live births, higher in boys than in girls, and decreased between 1880 and 1950, with high inter-annual variability. Mean daily temperature was +2.5 °C, ranging from -40.9 °C to +28.8 °C. At -20 °C, the OR of neonatal death was 1.56 (CI 1.30-1.87) compared to the reference at +14.5 °C. Among girls, the OR of mortality at -20 °C was 1.17 (0.88-1.54), and among boys, it was 1.94 (1.53-2.45). A temperature increase from +14.5 to +20 °C was associated with a 25% increase of neonatal mortality (OR 1.25, CI 1.04-1.50). Heat- and cold-related risks were lowest between 1900 and 1929.

CONCLUSIONS

In this remote sub-Arctic region undergoing socio-economic changes, we found an increased mortality risk in neonates related to low but also to high temperature. Climate vulnerability varied across time and was particularly high among boys. This demonstrates that environmental impacts on human health are complex and highly dependent on the specific local context, with many, often unknown, contributing determinants of vulnerability.

Changes in work and care trajectories during the transition to motherhood

In most mid- and high-income countries, there have been significant demographic, structural, and cultural changes in the past decades. However, we know little about how these changes have shaped women's work patterns during a key life stage: the transition to motherhood. Using longitudinal data from Chile, covering over 30 years of employment histories and three periods of first births (1980-2010), I conduct sequence analysis to identify women's work-care trajectories during an eight-year period of the transition to motherhood. Over time, I find that continuous care work at home has declined, for which education plays a key role, while the chances of working continuously have not changed over time. Instead, I find an increasing trend of unsteady paths that combine paid work with either caretaking or unemployment. I discuss how these changes, as well as their association with education, have important implications for both gender and social inequality.

Integrated social and health care services among societies in transition: Insights from Turkey

Societies experiencing rapid demographic transition may expect to face challenges such as accelerated population aging and increasing care-related needs. Decentralization of welfare states and resultant fragmentation of services is gaining increasing attention. In this study, we offer suggestions of how developing countries might move from fragmentation to integration of social and health care services. Using the Health Survey of Turkey (HST-2012) data with 15,000 households of populations' age 15 and older, we explore challenges to integrating social and health care service strategies in Turkey. Findings include inequities in material and service accessibility between rural and urban settings. Increasing numbers of older widowed women, especially in rural environments, will require direct income assistance over the coming decades. Additional findings include the need for primary and preventative health care services for middle age groups and strategies to address both unemployment among younger generations and barriers to work force participation for women. In conclusion, among rapid transition societies, it will take time to resolve decentralization-related regional inequalities in social and health services. Therefore, information and communications technologies (ICT) should be employed from an intersectionality perspective to more quickly bridge the services integration - regional inequalities gap in Turkey and possibly other societies in transition.

Disability-Adjusted Life Years Due to Mental Disorders and Diseases of the Nervous System in the Population of Medellin, 2006-2012

OBJECTIVE

To determine the healthy life years (HLY) lost as a result of mental disorders and nervous system diseases in Medellin from 2006 to 2012.

METHODS

Descriptive study using a secondary information source according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) framework. To calculate the years of potential life lost (YPLL), we used vital statistics data; to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALY), we used morbidity data from individual records managed by health service providers, outpatient clinics and other research studies. HLY are the sum of YPLL and DALY.

RESULTS

In Medellin, from 2006 to 2012, out of 1,242,407 HLY related to mental disorders and nervous system diseases, the vast majority (99.39%) were due to disability. Most HLY were found in females (70.22%) and 81% were found in people aged 15 to 59. The disorders representing the greatest burden were unipolar depressive disorder (81%), Alzheimer's disease and other types of dementia (4.82%), schizophrenia (3.5%) and drug use disorders (2.78%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate a significant increase in the disease burden due to mental disorders and nervous system diseases. Public policy decision-makers in the city of Medellin should take note, as health problems of this type can result in a substantial rise in healthcare costs.

Demographic aging and biopower

The aging of the world's population is an unprecedented recent phenomenon in human history, as for millennia - at least from the Neolithic to the mid-18th century - the age structures of human populations have changed little. The question posed by this anthropological perspective seems at first sight quite simple: how did this aging come to be? We will see that from a demographic point of view, the answer seems trivial: a basic shift in population structure is at the origin. However, we will go further by exploring the historical and political conditions of this transition by mobilizing the Foucauldian notion of biopower. We argue that this notion has the heuristic advantage of linking several core processes at work in the demographic transition. Although our analysis focuses on France to illustrate the notion of biopower in Foucault's work, we also discuss several non-western societies to explain why demographic aging is inevitable across the globe due to biopower strategies and "dispositifs". This article also constitutes a reflexive analysis on our practices as gerontologists and on the widespread "successful aging" concept.

Transition of cancer in populations in India

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES

An assessment of transition of cancer in India during the past 30 years, according to changes in demographic and epidemiologic risk factors was undertaken.

MATERIALS & METHODS

Cancer registry data (http://www.ncdirindia.org), (population coverage <10%), was compared with transition in life-expectancy and prevalence on smoking, alcohol and obesity. We fitted linear regression to the natural logarithm of the estimated incidence rates of various cancer registries in India.

RESULTS

Burden of cancer in India increased from 0.6 million in 1991 to 1.4 million in 2015. Among males, common cancers are lung (12.0%), mouth (11.4%), prostate (7.0%), and tongue (7.0%) and among females, they are breast (21.0%), cervix-uteri (12.1%), ovary (6.9%), and lung (4.9%) in 2012. Increased life-expectancy and population growth as well as increased use of alcohol and increased prevalence of overweight/obesity reflected an increase in all cancers in both genders except a reduction in infection-related cancers such as cervix-uteri and tobacco-related cancers such as pharynx (excludes nasopharynx) and oesophagus.

INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION

Transition in demographics and epidemiologic risk factors, reflected an increase in all cancers in both genders except a reduction in a few cancers. The increasing incidence of cancer and its associated factors demands a planned approach to reduce its burden. The burden assessment needs to be strengthened by increasing the population coverage of cancer registries. Continued effort for tobacco prevention and public health efforts for reducing obesity and alcohol consumption are needed to reduce the cancer burden.

An age-structured epidemic model for the demographic transition

In this paper, we formulate an age-structured epidemic model for the demographic transition in which we assume that the cultural norms leading to lower fertility are transmitted amongst individuals in the same way as infectious diseases. First, we formulate the basic model as an abstract homogeneous Cauchy problem on a Banach space to prove the existence, uniqueness, and well-posedness of solutions. Next based on the normalization arguments, we investigate the existence of nontrivial exponential solutions and then study the linearized stability at the exponential solutions using the idea of asynchronous exponential growth. The relative stability defined in the normalized system and the absolute (orbital) stability in the original system are examined. For the boundary exponential solutions corresponding to infection-free or totally infected status, we formulate the stability condition using reproduction numbers. We show that bi-unstability of boundary exponential solutions is one of conditions which guarantee the existence of coexistent exponential solutions.

DETERMINANTS OF FAMILY SIZE AMONG MEN IN SLUMS OF IBADAN, NIGERIA

BACKGROUND

Fertility, particularly as it pertains to the role of men as decision makers is important with respect to demographic transition theory. Studies have explored fertility preferences of men but very little has been done with regard to fertility preferences amongst men from the slums. The aim of this study was to investigate drivers of family sizes among the urban slum households in Ibadan of South-West Nigeria.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey design was conducted among 362 men in selected urban slum communities in Ibadan, Oyo State using multi-stage sampling. Data was collected using pre-tested, semi-structured, interviewer-administered questionnaires. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Chi square test and binary logistic regression with level of significance set at 5%.

RESULTS

Age of respondents was 41.1 ± 7.56 years. Over a third have completed tertiary education (35.9%) and were civil servants (47.0%). Ethnicity, educational status, sex distribution of children and number of children were significantly associated with desire for more children (p<0.05). Marginally over half (54.4%) of respondents with 2 or less children wanted to continue child bearing compared to other respondents (p<0.001). Men with female only children were almost 3 times more likely to desire more children than men with male only children (p<0.001; OR= 2.798; 95% CI = 1.53 - 5.13). Igbos also were 52.8% less likely to desire more children compared to Yorubas (p=0.047; OR = 0.472; 95% CI = 0.225 - 0.991).

CONCLUSION

Programmes targeted at slum dwellers to improve their education on childbearing and family planning are required to assist the country progress through the stages of demographic transition.

Developmental effects of childhood household adversity, transitions, and relationship quality on adult outcomes of socioeconomic status: Effects of substantiated child maltreatment

The degree to which child maltreatment interacts with other household adversities to exacerbate risk for poor adult socioeconomic outcomes is uncertain. Moreover, the effects of residential, school, and caregiver transitions during childhood on adult outcomes are not well understood. This study examined the relation between household adversity and transitions in childhood with adult income problems, education, and unemployment in individuals with or without a childhood maltreatment history. The potential protective role of positive relationship quality in buffering these risk relationships was also tested. Data were from the Lehigh Longitudinal Study (n = 457), where subjects were assessed at preschool, elementary, adolescent, and adult ages. Multiple group path analysis tested the relationships between childhood household adversity; residential, school, and caregiver transitions; and adult socioeconomic outcomes for each group. Caregiver relationship quality was included as a moderator, and gender as a covariate. Household adversity was negatively associated with education level and positively associated with income problems for non-maltreated children only. For both groups, residential transitions was negatively associated with education level and caregiver transitions was positively associated with unemployment problems. Relationship quality was positively associated with education level only for non-maltreated children. For children who did not experience maltreatment, reducing exposure to household adversity is an important goal for prevention. Reducing exposure to child maltreatment for all children remains an important public health priority. Results underscore the need for programs and policies that promote stable relationships and environments.

A Quiescent Phase in Human Mortality? Exploring the Ages of Least Vulnerability

Demographic studies of mortality often emphasize the two ends of the lifespan, focusing on the declining hazard after birth or the increasing risk of death at older ages. We call attention to the intervening phase, when humans are least vulnerable to the force of mortality, and consider its features in both evolutionary and historical perspectives. We define this quiescent phase (Q-phase) formally, estimate its bounds using life tables for Swedish cohorts born between 1800 and 1920, and describe changes in the morphology of the Q-phase. We show that for cohorts aging during Sweden's demographic and epidemiological transitions, the Q-phase became longer and more pronounced, reflecting the retreat of infections and maternal mortality as key causes of death. These changes revealed an underlying hazard trajectory that remains relatively low and constant during the prime ages for reproduction and investment in both personal capital and relationships with others. Our characterization of the Q-phase highlights it as a unique, dynamic, and historically contingent cohort feature, whose increased visibility was made possible by the rapid pace of survival improvements in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This visibility may be reduced or sustained under subsequent demographic regimes.

Voluntary Associations and Net Fertility During the Swedish Demographic Transition

This study investigates the role of changing social relations for fertility decline during the European fertility transition. The growth of voluntary associations at the end of the nineteenth century entailed a radical shift in the landscape of social relations in Sweden. By combining micro-census data from 1890 to 1900 with local-level membership data for three voluntary association groups, this article assesses the effect of parish-level voluntary association size on net fertility in Sweden using mixed-effects Poisson regression models. The results show that the adoption of fertility limitation during the transition period was associated with the creation and diffusion of the idea of respectability within large social network organisations, an idea that has previously been shown to be connected to fertility limitation. Furthermore, by applying a social network perspective, the results show that the strength of the effect was dependent on the structure of the social networks in terms of size, density, and homogeneity. Voluntary association size had the strongest effect for the free churches, which created dense heterogeneous networks through systems of social control, while the size of the temperance association showed no effect on fertility because the connections between nodes were sparse.

Agency in Fertility Decisions in Western Europe During the Demographic Transition: A Comparative Perspective

We use a set of linked reproductive histories taken from Sweden, the Netherlands, and Spain for the period 1871–1960 to address key issues regarding how reproductive change was linked specifically to mortality and survivorship and more generally to individual agency. Using event-history analysis, this study investigates how the propensity to have additional children was influenced by the number of surviving offspring when reproductive decisions were made. The results suggest that couples were continuously regulating their fertility to achieve reproductive goals. Families experiencing child fatalities show significant increases in the hazard of additional births. In addition, the sex composition of the surviving sibset also appears to have influenced reproductive decisions in a significant but changing way. The findings offer strong proof of active decision-making during the demographic transition and provide an important contribution to the literature on the role of mortality for reproductive change.

Nighttime lights and population changes in Europe 1992-2012

Nighttime satellite photographs of Earth reveal the location of lighting and provide a unique view of the extent of human settlement. Nighttime lights have been shown to correlate with economic development and population but little research has been done on the link between nighttime lights and population change over time. We explore whether population decline is coupled with decline in lighted area and how the age structure of the population and GDP are reflected in nighttime lights. We examine Europe between the period of 1992 and 2012 using a Geographic Information System and regression analysis. The results suggest that population decline is not coupled with decline in lighted area. Instead, human settlement extent is more closely related to the age structure of the population and to GDP. We conclude that declining populations will not necessarily lead to reductions in the extent of land development.

Intergenerational Transmission of Reproductive Traits in Spain during the Demographic Transition

In this paper intergenerational dimensions of reproductive behavior are studied within the context of the experience of a mid-sized Spanish town just before and during the demographic transition. Different indicators of reproduction are used in bivariate and multivariate approaches. Fertility shows a small, often statistically significant intergenerational dimension, with stronger effects working through women and their mothers than those stemming from the families of their husbands. These effects are materialized mainly through duration-related fertility variables, are singularly absent for variables such as age at first birth or birth intervals, and are much stronger in the case of firstborn daughters than with later siblings. There is a substantial increase in the strength of intergenerational effects during the course of the demographic transition, most visible in age at last birth and duration of reproduction (between women and their mothers), as well as in the effects working through the families of their husbands. These results underscore the on-going importance of biological dimensions of reproduction as well as the way attitudes toward reproduction are taught within the family. The changes identified in this study suggest that the transmission of values and attitudes became more important for reproductive outcomes during this period of demographic modernization.

Nutrition and cancer - global and African perspectives: a focused update

The burden of cancer worldwide is predicted to almost double by 2030 to nearly 23 million cases annually. The great majority of this increase is expected to occur in less economically developed countries, where access to expensive medical, surgical and radiotherapeutic interventions is likely to be limited to a small proportion of the population. This emphasises the need for preventive measures, as outlined in the declaration from the United Nations 2011 High Level Meeting on Non-communicable Diseases. The rise in incidence is proposed to follow from increasing numbers of people reaching middle and older ages, together with increasing urbanisation of the population with a nutritional transition from traditional diets to a more globalised 'Western' pattern, with a decrease in physical activity. This is also expected to effect a change in the pattern of cancers from a predominantly smoking and infection dominated one, to a smoking and obesity dominated one. The World Cancer Research Fund estimates that about a quarter to a third of the commonest cancers are attributable to excess body weight, physical inactivity and poor diet, making this the most common cause of cancers after smoking. These cancers are potentially preventable, but knowledge of the causes of cancer has not led to effective policies to prevent the export of a 'Western' pattern of cancers in lower income countries such as many in Africa.

Value of children and fertility: Results from a cross-cultural comparative survey in eighteen areas in Asia, Africa, Europe and America

For explaining cross-cultural differences in fertility behavior, this paper conjoins three complementary approaches: the 'demand'-based economic theory of fertility (ETF), a revised version of the 'supply'-based 'value-of-children' (VOC)-approach as a special theory of the general social theory of social production functions and the framing theory of variable rationality. A comprehensive model is specified that encompasses the variable efficiency of having children for the optimization of physical well-being and of social esteem of (potential) parents; it also accounts for the variable rationality of fertility decisions. The model is tested with a data set that comprises information on VOC and fertility of women within the social settings of 18 areas (Peoples Republic of China, North and South India, Indonesia, Palestine, Israel, Turkey, Ghana, South Africa, East and West Germany, the Czech Republic, France, Russia, Poland, Estonia, the United States and Jamaica). Latent class analysis is used to establish a measurement model for the costs and benefits of children and to analyze area differences by a two-level multinomial-model. Two-level Cox-regressions are used to estimate the effects of perceived costs and benefits of children, individual resources and context opportunities, with births of different parity as dependents. This simultaneous test in a cross-cultural context goes beyond the current state of fertility research and provides evidence about the cross-cultural validity of the model, the systematic effects of VOC on fertility and the changing rationality of fertility decisions during demographic transition and socio-economic change.

Normative measurements of grip and pinch strengths of 21st century korean population

Background

Measuring grip and pinch strength is an important part of hand injury evaluation. Currently, there are no standardized values of normal grip and pinch strength among the Korean population, and lack of such data prevents objective evaluation of post-surgical recovery in strength. This study was designed to establish the normal values of grip and pinch strength among the healthy Korean population and to identify any dependent variables affecting grip and pinch strength.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was carried out. The inclusion criterion was being a healthy Korean person without a previous history of hand trauma. The grip strength was measured using a Jamar dynamometer. Pulp and key pinch strength were measured with a hydraulic pinch gauge. Intra-individual and inter-individual variations in these variables were analyzed in a standardized statistical manner.

Results

There were a total of 336 healthy participants between 13 and 77 years of age. As would be expected in any given population, the mean grip and pinch strength was greater in the right hand than the left. Male participants (137) showed mean strengths greater than female participants (199) when adjusted for age. Among the male participants, anthropometric variables correlated positively with grip strength, but no such correlations were identifiable in female participants in a statistically significant way.

Conclusions

Objective measurements of hand strength are an important component of hand injury evaluation, and population-specific normative data are essential for clinical and research purposes. This study reports updated normative hand strengths of the South Korean population in the 21st century.