Projection of extreme heat- and cold-related mortality in Sweden based on the spatial synoptic classification

BACKGROUND

Climate change is projected to result in increased heat events and decreased cold events. This will substantially impact human health, particularly when compounded with demographic change. This study employed the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) to categorize daily weather into one of seven types. Here we estimated future mortality due to extremely hot and cold weather types under different climate change scenarios for one southern (Stockholm) and one northern (Jämtland) Swedish region.

METHODS

Time-series Poisson regression with distributed lags was used to assess the relationship between extremely hot and cold weather events and daily deaths in the population above 65 years, with cumulative effects (6 days in summer, 28 days in winter), 1991 to 2014. A global climate model (MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR) and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were used to project the occurrence of hot and cold days from 2031 to 2070. Place-specific projected mortality was calculated to derive attributable numbers and attributable fractions (AF) of heat- and cold-related deaths.

RESULTS

In Stockholm, for the RCP 4.5 scenario, the mean number of annual deaths attributed to heat increased from 48.7 (CI 32.2-64.2; AF = 0.68%) in 2031-2040 to 90.2 (56.7-120.5; AF = 0.97%) in 2061-2070, respectively. For RCP 8.5, heat-related deaths increased more drastically from 52.1 (33.6-69.7; AF = 0.72%) to 126.4 (68.7-175.8; AF = 1.36%) between the first and the last decade. Cold-related deaths slightly increased over the projected period in both scenarios. In Jämtland, projections showed a small decrease in cold-related deaths but no change in heat-related mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In rural northern region of Sweden, a decrease of cold-related deaths represents the dominant trend. In urban southern locations, on the other hand, an increase of heat-related mortality is to be expected. With an increasing elderly population, heat-related mortality will outweigh cold-related mortality at least under the RCP 8.5 scenario, requiring societal adaptation measures.

Socioeconomic and geographical inequalities in health care coverage in Mozambique: a repeated cross-sectional study of the 2015 and 2018 national surveys

BACKGROUND

Over the past years, Mozambique has implemented several initiatives to ensure equitable coverage to health care services. While there have been some achievements in health care coverage at the population level, the effects of these initiatives on social inequalities have not been analysed.

OBJECTIVE

The present study aimed to assess changes in socioeconomic and geographical inequalities (education, wealth, region, place of residence) in health care coverage between 2015 and 2018 in Mozambique.

METHODS

The study was based on repeated cross-sectional surveys from nationally representative samples: the Survey of Indicators on Immunisation, Malaria and HIV/AIDS in Mozambique (IMASIDA) 2015 and the 2018 Malaria Indicator survey. Data from women of reproductive age (15 to 49 years) were analysed to evaluate health care coverage of three indicators: insecticide-treated net use, fever treatment of children, and use of Fansidar malaria prophylaxis for pregnant women. Absolute risk differences and the slope index of inequality (SII) were calculated for the 2015 survey period and the 2018 survey period, respectively. An interaction term between the socioeconomic and geographical variables and the period was included to assess inequality changes between 2015 and 2018.

RESULTS

The non-use of insecticide-treated nets dropped, whereas the proportion of women with children who were not treated for fever and the prevalence of women who did not take the full Fansidar dose during pregnancy decreased between 2015 and 2018. Significant reductions in the inequality related to insecticide-treated net use were observed for all socioeconomic variables. Concerning fever treatment, some reductions in socioeconomic inequalities were observed, though not statistically significant. For malaria prophylaxis, the SII was significant for education, wealth, and residence in both periods, but no significant inequality reductions were observed in any of these variables over time.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed significant reductions of socioeconomic inequalities in insecticide-treated net use, but not in fever treatment of children and Fansidar prophylaxis for pregnant women. Decision-makers should target underserved populations, specifically the non-educated, poor, and rural women, to address inequalities in health care coverage.

Wealth inequalities in reproductive and child health preventive care in Mozambique: a decomposition analysis

Background

Assessing the gap between rich and poor is important to monitor inequalities in health. Identifying the contribution to that gap can help policymakers to develop interventions towards decreasing that difference.

Objective

To quantify the wealth inequalities in health preventive measures (bed net use, vaccination, and contraceptive use) to determine the demographic and socioeconomic contribution factors to that inequality using a decomposition analysis.

Methods

Data from the 2015 Immunisation, Malaria and AIDs Indicators Survey were used. The total sample included 6946 women aged 15–49 years. Outcomes were use of insecticide-treated nets (ITN), child vaccination, and modern contraception use. Wealth Index was the exposure variable and age, marital status, place of residence, region, education, occupation, and household wealth index were the explanatory variables. Wealth inequalities were assessed using concentration indexes (Cindex). Wagstaff-decomposition analysis was conducted to assess the determinants of the wealth inequality.

Results

The Cindex was −0.081 for non-ITN, −0.189 for lack of vaccination coverage and −0.284 for non-contraceptive use, indicating a pro-poor inequality. The results revealed that 88.41% of wealth gap for ITN was explained by socioeconomic factors, with education and wealth playing the largest roles. Lack of full vaccination, socioeconomic factors made the largest contribution, through the wealth variable, whereas geographic factors came next. Finally, the lack of contraceptive use, socioeconomic factors were the main explanatory factors, but to a lesser degree than the other two outcomes, with wealth and education contributing most to explaining the gap.

Conclusion

There was a pro-poor inequality in reproductive and child preventive measures in Mozambique. The greater part of this inequality could be attributed to wealth, education, and residence in rural areas. Resources should be channeled into poor and non-educated rural communities to tackle these persistent inequities in preventive care.

Effect of extreme hot and cold weather on cause-specific hospitalizations in Sweden: A time series analysis

Considering that several meteorological variables can contribute to weather vulnerability, the estimation of their synergetic effects on health is particularly useful. The spatial synoptic classification (SSC) has been used in biometeorological applications to estimate the effect of the entire suite of weather conditions on human morbidity and mortality. In this study, we assessed the relationships between extremely hot and dry (dry tropical plus, DT+) and hot and moist (moist tropical plus, MT+) weather types in summer and extremely cold and dry (dry polar plus, DP+) and cold and moist (moist polar, MP+) weather types in winter and cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalizations by age and sex. Time-series quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lags was used to assess the relationship between oppressive weather types and daily hospitalizations over 14 subsequent days in the extended summer (May to August) and 28 subsequent days during the extended winter (November to March) over 24 years in 4 Swedish locations from 1991 to 2014. In summer, exposure to hot weather types appeared to reduce cardiovascular hospitalizations while increased the risk of hospitalizations for respiratory diseases, mainly related to MT+. In winter, the effect of cold weather on both cause-specific hospitalizations was small; however, MP+ was related to a delayed increase in cardiovascular hospitalizations, whilst MP+ and DP + increased the risk of hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases. This study provides useful information for the staff of hospitals and elderly care centers who can help to implement protective measures for patients and residents. Also, our results could be helpful for vulnerable people who can adopt protective measures to reduce health risks.

Climate vulnerability of Swedish newborns: Gender differences and time trends of temperature-related neonatal mortality, 1880-1950

BACKGROUND

In resource-poor societies, neonatal mortality (death in the first 28 days of life) is usually very high. Young infants are particularly vulnerable to environmental health risks, which are modified by socioeconomic factors that change over time. We investigated the association between ambient temperature and neonatal mortality in northern Sweden during the demographic transition.

METHODS

Parish register data and temperature data in coastal Västerbotten, Sweden, between 1880 and 1950 were used. Total and sex-specific neonatal mortality was modelled as a function of mean temperature, adjusting for age, seasonality and calendar time, using discrete-time survival analysis. A linear threshold function was applied with a cut point at 14.5 °C (the minimum mortality temperature). Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed. Further analyses were stratified by study period (1800-1899, 1900-1929, and 1930-1950).

RESULTS

Neonatal mortality was 32.1 deaths/1000 live births, higher in boys than in girls, and decreased between 1880 and 1950, with high inter-annual variability. Mean daily temperature was +2.5 °C, ranging from -40.9 °C to +28.8 °C. At -20 °C, the OR of neonatal death was 1.56 (CI 1.30-1.87) compared to the reference at +14.5 °C. Among girls, the OR of mortality at -20 °C was 1.17 (0.88-1.54), and among boys, it was 1.94 (1.53-2.45). A temperature increase from +14.5 to +20 °C was associated with a 25% increase of neonatal mortality (OR 1.25, CI 1.04-1.50). Heat- and cold-related risks were lowest between 1900 and 1929.

CONCLUSIONS

In this remote sub-Arctic region undergoing socio-economic changes, we found an increased mortality risk in neonates related to low but also to high temperature. Climate vulnerability varied across time and was particularly high among boys. This demonstrates that environmental impacts on human health are complex and highly dependent on the specific local context, with many, often unknown, contributing determinants of vulnerability.

Socio-economic and demographic factors associated with reproductive and child health preventive care in Mozambique: a cross-sectional study

Background

Reproductive and child health interventions are essential to improving population health in Africa. In Mozambique, although some progress on reproductive and child health has been made, knowledge of social inequalities in health and health care is lacking.

Objective

To investigate socio-economic and demographic inequalities in reproductive and child preventive health care as a way to monitor progress towards universal health coverage.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted, using data collected from the 2015 Immunization, AIDS and Malaria Indicators Survey (IMASIDA) in Mozambique. The sample included 6946 women aged 15 to 49 years. Outcomes variables were the use of insecticide treated nets (ITN) for children under 5 years, full child immunization and modern contraception use, while independent variables included age, marital status, place of residence, region, education, occupation, and household wealth index. Prevalence ratios (PR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by log binomial regression to assess the relationship between the socio-economic and demographic characteristics and the three outcomes of interest.

Results

The percentage of mothers with at least one child under 5 years that did not use ITN was 51.01, 46.25% of women had children aged 1 to 4 years who were not fully immunized, and 74.28% of women were not using modern contraceptives. Non-educated mothers (PR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.16–1.51) and those living in the Southern region (PR = 1.36; 95% CI: 1.17–1.59) had higher risk of not using ITN, while the poorest quintile (PR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.04–1.71) was more likely to have children who were not fully immunized. Similarly, non-educated women (PR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.10–1.25), non-working women (PR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04–1.16), and those in the poorest quintile (PR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.04–1.24) had a higher risk of not using modern contraceptives.

Conclusion

Our study showed a low rate of ITN utilization, immunization coverage of children, and modern contraceptive use among women of reproductive age. Several socio-economic and demographics factors (region, education, occupation, and wealth) were associated with these preventive measures. We recommend an equity-oriented resource allocation across regions, knowledge dissemination on the importance of ITN and contraceptives use, and an expansion of immunization services to reach socio-economically disadvantaged families in order to achieve universal health coverage in Mozambique.

Hot and cold weather based on the spatial synoptic classification and cause-specific mortality in Sweden: a time-stratified case-crossover study

The spatial synoptic classification (SSC) is a holistic categorical assessment of the daily weather conditions at specific locations; it is a useful tool for assessing weather effects on health. In this study, we assessed (a) the effect of hot weather types and the duration of heat events on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in summer and (b) the effect of cold weather types and the duration of cold events on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in winter. A time-stratified case-crossover design combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model was carried out to investigate the association of weather types with cause-specific mortality in two southern (Skåne and Stockholm) and two northern (Jämtland and Västerbotten) locations in Sweden. During summer, in the southern locations, the Moist Tropical (MT) and Dry Tropical (DT) weather types increased cardiovascular and respiratory mortality at shorter lags; both hot weather types substantially increased respiratory mortality mainly in Skåne. The impact of heat events on mortality by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases was more important in the southern than in the northern locations at lag 0. The cumulative effect of MT, DT and heat events lagged over 14 days was particularly high for respiratory mortality in all locations except in Jämtland, though these did not show a clear effect on cardiovascular mortality. During winter, the dry polar and moist polar weather types and cold events showed a negligible effect on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. This study provides valuable information about the relationship between hot oppressive weather types with cause-specific mortality; however, the cold weather types may not capture sufficiently effects on cause-specific mortality in this sub-Arctic region.

Neonatal Mortality and Temperature in Two Northern Swedish Rural Parishes, 1860-1899-The Significance of Ethnicity and Gender

The aim of this study was to analyze the association between season of birth and daily temperature for neonatal mortality in two Swedish rural parishes between 1860 and 1899. Further, we aimed to study whether the association varied according to ethnicity (indigenous Sami reindeer herders and non-Sami settlers) and gender. The source material for this study comprised digitized parish records from the Demographic Data Base, Umeå University, combined with local weather data provided by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. Using a time event-history approach, we investigated the association between daily temperature (at birth and up to 28 days after birth) and the risk of neonatal death during the coldest months (November through March). The results showed that Sami neonatal mortality was highest during winter and that the Sami neonatal mortality risk decreased with higher temperatures on the day of birth. Male neonatal risk decreased with higher temperatures during the days following birth, while no effect of temperature was observed among female neonates. We conclude that weather vulnerability differed between genders and between the indigenous and non-indigenous populations.

Season of birth, stillbirths, and neonatal mortality in Sweden: the Sami and non-Sami population, 1800-1899

Seasonal patterns of neonatal mortality and stillbirths have been found around the world. However, little is known about the association between season of birth and infant mortality of pre-industrial societies in a subarctic environment. In this study, we compared how season of birth affected the neonatal and stillbirth risk among the Sami and non-Sami in Swedish Sápmi during the nineteenth century. Using digitised parish records from the Demographic Data Base at Umeå University, we applied logistic regression models for estimating the association of season of birth with stillbirths and neonatal mortality, respectively. Higher neonatal mortality was found among the winter- and autumn-born Sami, compared to summer-born infants. Stillbirth risk was higher during autumn compared to summer among the Sami, whereas we found no seasonal differences in mortality among the non-Sami population. We relate the higher neonatal mortality risk among winter-born Sami to differences in seasonality of living conditions associated with reindeer herding.

The realities of HIV prevention. A closer look at facilitators and challenges faced by HIV prevention programmes in Sudan and Yemen

Background: HIV/AIDS prevention has historically encountered many obstacles. Understanding the factors affecting HIV/AIDS prevention is central to designing and implementing suitable context-specific interventions. Research relating to HIV prevention in the Middle East and North African region is required to address the gradually increasing HIV epidemic.

Objective: This study aimed to explore the perspectives of employees/health care professionals who are working or have worked within HIV prevention in Sudan and Yemen on the challenges and facilitating factors facing HIV prevention.

Methods: A qualitative approach was employed using an open-ended questionnaire. Sixteen stakeholders from governmental and non-governmental agencies participated in the study. The questionnaire focused on the various challenges and facilitating factors facing HIV prevention as well as proposed possible solutions from the perspectives of the participants. The data were analysed using thematic analysis.

Results: The study illustrated the similarities in context and HIV prevention systems between Sudan and Yemen. Thematic analysis resulted in three main themes: I) much is achieved despite difficulties; II) a programme left to be paralysed; this theme addressed the main obstacles facing HIV prevention in Sudan and Yemen generating a total of six sub-themes; III) comprehensive change is needed. The participants drew focus and attention to vital changes required to improve the delivery of HIV prevention services.

Conclusion: Increased financial support for HIV prevention in Sudan and Yemen is urgently needed. De-stigmatisation and increased political support, advocacy and improved legislation for people living with HIV (PLHIV) are required for the sustainability and effectiveness of HIV prevention programmes in Sudan and Yemen. Civil society organisations must be aided and supported in their role in engaging key populations.

Weather extremes and perinatal mortality - Seasonal and ethnic differences in northern Sweden, 1800-1895

BACKGROUND

Many studies have shown the impact of heat and cold on total and age-specific mortality, but knowledge gaps remain regarding weather vulnerability of very young infants. This study assessed the association of temperature extremes with perinatal mortality (stillbirths and deaths in the first week of life), among two ethnic groups in pre-industrial northern Sweden.

METHODS

We used population data of indigenous Sami and non-Sami in selected parishes of northern Sweden, 1800-1895, and monthly temperature data. Multiple logistic regression models were conducted to estimate the association of cold (<10th percentile of temperature) and warmth (>90th percentile) in the month of birth with perinatal mortality, adjusted for cold and warmth in the month prior birth and period, stratified by season and ethnicity.

RESULTS

Perinatal mortality was slightly higher in Sami than in non-Sami (46 vs. 42 / 1000 live and stillbirths), but showed large variations across the region and over time. Both groups saw the highest perinatal mortality in autumn. For Sami, winter was a high-risk time as well, while for non-Sami, seasonality was less distinct. We found an association between exposure to cold and perinatal mortality among winter-born Sami [Odds ratio (OR) 1.91, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.26-2.92, compared to moderate temperature], while there was little effect of cold or warmth during other seasons. Non-Sami, meanwhile, were affected in summer by warmth (OR 0.20, CI 0.05-0.81), and in autumn by cold (OR 0.39, CI 0.19-0.82).

CONCLUSIONS

In this pre-industrial, subarctic setting, the indigenous Sami's perinatal mortality was influenced by extreme cold in winter, while non-Sami seemed to benefit from high temperature in summer and low temperature in autumn. Climate vulnerability of these two ethnic groups sharing the same environment was shaped by their specific lifestyles and living conditions.

Development of predictive models for boar semen quality

In this study a prognosis model is developed that predicts sperm quality characteristics based on external factors such as barn climate conditions, seasonality, semen collection frequency, age and breed of artificial insemination (AI) boars. For this a k-fold cross validation framework is used to test the prediction accuracy of a wide range of regression models that are based on different functional forms (linear, log-linear) and estimation techniques (ordinary least squares, seemingly unrelated regression, two-stage least squares estimation and three-stage least squares estimation). The dataset includes 241 boars from three barns within one boar stud located in Southern Germany, consisting of 7455 ejaculates collected during one year. The winner model predicts sperm motility with little error (Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE): 4.35%), but is of limited use to predict sperm output (MAPE: 23.92%) and especially morphologically abnormal spermatozoa (MAPE: 44.67%). An estimation of marginal effects shows, that once confounding variables are controlled for, the considered barn climate variables do not have a measurable effect on sperm quality. Other factors have a more significant effect on sperm quality, like morphology-motility linkages, sperm concentration, interval between semen collections and to a lesser extent age and breed of the AI boar.

Post-infectious fatigue following Puumala virus infection

Background: Puumala virus infection or nephropathia epidemica (NE) is common in northern Sweden. NE causes haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. Most patients make a full recovery, but a convalescent phase with fatigue has been reported. Although post-infectious fatigue has been demonstrated for other viral infections, it is not well studied in relation to NE. This study assessed recovery time and levels of fatigue in former NE patients, as compared to the general population. Methods: NE patients diagnosed in northern Sweden between 2007 and 2011, together with a comparison sample from the general population, answered a questionnaire on demographic and health-related factors, including the Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS), and characteristics of NE infection. Self-reported recovery time was assessed, and fatigue levels were compared across the two groups by multiple linear regression, stratified by gender. Results: In total, 1132 NE patients and 915 comparison group subjects participated. Time to complete recovery was reported to exceed 3 months for 47% and 6 months for 32% of the NE patients. Recovery time differed by gender and age. NE patients had significantly higher FSS scores than the comparison group. Differences were greater among women than men, and adjustments for current illness, body mass index, smoking and current residence only slightly modified the estimates. Conclusions: Individuals with previous NE infection show higher fatigue scores than non-infected individuals, even 5 years following the infection. Full recovery takes half a year or longer for a substantial proportion of former NE patients.

The association between cold extremes and neonatal mortality in Swedish Sápmi from 1800 to 1895

Background: Studies in which the association between temperature and neonatal mortality (deaths during the first 28 days of life) is tracked over extended periods that cover demographic, economic and epidemiological transitions are quite limited. From previous research about the demographic transition in Swedish Sápmi, we know that infant and child mortality was generally higher among the indigenous (Sami) population compared to non-indigenous populations. Objective: The aim of this study was to analyse the association between extreme temperatures and neonatal mortality among the Sami and non-Sami population in Swedish Sápmi (Lapland) during the nineteenth century. Methods: Data from the Demographic Data Base, Umeå University, were used to identify neonatal deaths. We used monthly mean temperature in Tornedalen and identified cold and warm month (5th and 95th) percentiles. Monthly death counts from extreme temperatures were modelled using negative binomial regression. We computed relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusting for time trends and seasonality. Results: Overall, the neonatal mortality rate was higher among Sami compared to non-Sami infants (62/1,000 vs 35/1,000 live births), although the differences between the two populations decreased after 1860. For the Sami population prior 1860, the results revealed a higher neonatal incidence rate during cold winter months (<-15.4°C, RR = 1.60, CI 1.14-2.23) compared to infants born during months of medium temperature. No association was found between extreme cold months and neonatal mortality for non-Sami populations. Warm months (+15.1°C) had no impact on Sami or non-Sami populations. Conclusions: This study revealed the role of environmental factors (temperature extremes) on infant health during the demographic transition where cold extremes mainly affected the Sami population. Ethnicity and living conditions contributed to differential weather vulnerability.

Intimate partner violence against women in Nigeria: a multilevel study investigating the effect of women's status and community norms

BACKGROUND

Intimate partner violence (IPV) against women has been recognised as a public health problem with far-reaching consequences for the physical, reproductive, and mental health of women. The ecological framework portrays intimate partner violence as a multifaceted phenomenon, demonstrating the interplay of factors at different levels: individual, community, and the larger society. The present study examined the effect of individual- and community-level factors on IPV in Nigeria, with a focus on women's status and community-level norms among men.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study based on the latest Nigerian Demographic Health Survey (2013) was conducted involving 20,802 ever-partnered women aged 15-49 years. Several multilevel logistic regression models were calibrated to assess the association of individual- and community-level factors with IPV. Both measures of association (fixed effect) and measures of variations (random effect) were reported.

RESULTS

Almost one in four women in Nigeria reported having ever experienced intimate partner violence. Having adjusted for other relevant covariates, higher women's status reduced the odds of IPV (OR = 0.47; 95% CI = 0.32-0.71). However, community norms among men that justified IPV against women modified the observed protective effect of higher women's status against IPV and reversed the odds (OR = 1.89; 95% CI = 1.26-2.83).

CONCLUSIONS

Besides women's status, community norms towards IPV are an important factor for the occurrence of IPV. Thus, addressing intimate partner violence against women calls for community-wide approaches aimed at changing norms among men alongside improving women's status.

Correlation of Biochemical Tumor Markers with Conventional Pathological Features in Primary Breast Cancer

In this prospective study the correlation of pathological with biological prognostic factors and serum tumor markers has been investigated in 574 patients with primary invasive breast cancer. The p53 protein and Bax level correlated positively with tumor size, lymph node status and histological grade. The serum levels of CEA, CA 15.3, TPA-M and TK correlated with tumor extent. There was a significant difference between pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer patients in serum levels of TPA-M and cytosol levels of Bax. Whether these correlations can help in predicting the prognosis of breast cancer by providing additional information with respect to the conventional factors, will have to be investigated by several years of careful clinical follow-up.

Estimated Effect of Temperature on Years of Life Lost: A Retrospective Time-Series Study of Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Regions

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have reported a strong association between temperature and mortality. Additional insights can be gained from investigating the effects of temperature on years of life lost (YLL), considering the life expectancy at the time of death.

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this work was to assess the association between temperature and YLL at seven low-, middle-, and high-income sites.

METHODS

We obtained meteorological and population data for at least nine years from four Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites in Kenya (western Kenya, Nairobi), Burkina Faso (Nouna), and India (Vadu), as well as data from cities in the United States (Philadelphia, Phoenix) and Sweden (Stockholm). A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the association of daily maximum temperature and daily YLL, lagged 0-14 d. The reference value was set for each site at the temperature with the lowest YLL.

RESULTS

Generally, YLL increased with higher temperature, starting day 0. In Nouna, the hottest location, with a minimum YLL temperature at the first percentile, YLL increased consistently with higher temperatures. In Vadu, YLL increased in association with heat, whereas in Nairobi, YLL increased in association with both low and high temperatures. Associations with cold and heat were evident for Phoenix (stronger for heat), Stockholm, and Philadelphia (both stronger for cold). Patterns of associations with mortality were generally similar to those with YLL.

CONCLUSIONS

Both high and low temperatures are associated with YLL in high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Policy guidance and health adaptation measures might be improved with more comprehensive indicators of the health burden of high and low temperatures such as YLL. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1745.

Socioenvironmental factors associated with heat and cold-related mortality in Vadu HDSS, western India: a population-based case-crossover study

Ambient temperatures (heat and cold) are associated with mortality, but limited research is available about groups most vulnerable to these effects in rural populations. We estimated the effects of heat and cold on daily mortality among different sociodemographic groups in the Vadu HDSS area, western India. We studied all deaths in the Vadu HDSS area during 2004-2013. A conditional logistic regression model in a case-crossover design was used. Separate analyses were carried out for summer and winter season. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for total mortality and population subgroups. Temperature above a threshold of 31 °C was associated with total mortality (OR 1.48, CI = 1.05-2.09) per 1 °C increase in daily mean temperature. Odds ratios were higher among females (OR 1.93; CI = 1.07-3.47), those with low education (OR 1.65; CI = 1.00-2.75), those owing larger agricultural land (OR 2.18; CI = 0.99-4.79), and farmers (OR 1.70; CI = 1.02-2.81). In winter, per 1 °C decrease in mean temperature, OR for total mortality was 1.06 (CI = 1.00-1.12) in lag 0-13 days. High risk of cold-related mortality was observed among people occupied in housework (OR = 1.09; CI = 1.00-1.19). Our study suggests that both heat and cold have an impact on mortality particularly heat, but also, to a smaller degree, cold have an impact. The effects may differ partly by sex, education, and occupation. These findings might have important policy implications in preventing heat and cold effects on particularly vulnerable groups of the rural populations in low and middle-income countries with hot semi-arid climate.

Effects of deoxynivalenol (DON), zearalenone (ZEN), and related metabolites on equine peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) in vitro and background occurrence of these toxins in horses

Both deoxynivalenol (DON), zearalenone (ZEN), and their metabolites are known to modulate immune cells in various species whereby viability and proliferation are influenced. Such effects were rarely examined in horses. Therefore, one aim of the present study was to titrate the inhibitory concentrations of DON, 3-acetyl-DON (3AcDON), de-epoxy-DON (DOM-1), ZEN, and α- and β-zearalenol (ZEL) at which viability and proliferation of equine PBMC were reduced by 50 % (IC50) and 10 % (IC10) in vitro. For evaluation of practical relevance of the in vitro findings, a further aim was to screen horses for the background occurrence of DON, ZEN, and their metabolites in systemic circulation and to relate toxin residues both to the inhibitory toxin concentrations and to hematological and clinical-chemical characteristics.The IC50 (μM) for DON, 3AcDON, β-ZEL, α-ZEL, and ZEN were determined at 3.09, 25.90, 75.44, 97.44, and 98.15 in unstimulated cells, respectively, while in proliferating cells, the corresponding IC50 values were 0.73, 6.89, 45.16, 75.96, and 82.51. Neither viability nor proliferation was influenced by DOM-1 up to a concentration of 100 μM.The in vivo screening (N = 49) revealed the occurrence of ZEN (N = 24), α-ZEL (N = 3), β-ZEL (N = 37), DON, and DOM-1 (N = 2). The detected concentrations were much lower than the corresponding IC50 while the IC10 of DON and β-ZEL for proliferating PBMC corresponded to approximately 26 and 35 ng/mL which might be relevant when contaminated diets are fed.Clinical-chemical and hematological traits were not related to mycotoxin residue levels excepting blood urea nitrogen which was positively correlated to the sum of β-ZEL, α-ZEL, and ZEN concentration. Whether this reflects simply the feeding history of the horses or renal failures giving rise to a prolonged half-life of the toxins needs to be clarified further.

Impact of Heat and Cold on Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Vadu HDSS--A Rural Setting in Western India

Many diseases are affected by changes in weather. There have been limited studies, however, which have examined the relationship between heat and cold and cause-specific mortality in low and middle-income countries. In this study, we aimed to estimate the effects of heat and cold days on total and cause-specific mortality in the Vadu Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) area in western India. We used a quasi-Poisson regression model allowing for over-dispersion to examine the association of total and cause-specific mortality with extreme high (98th percentile, >39 °C) and low temperature (2nd percentile, <25 °C) over the period January 2003 to December 2012. Delays of 0 and 0-4 days were considered and relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Heat was significantly associated with daily deaths by non-infectious diseases (RR = 1.57; CI: 1.18-2.10). There was an increase in the risk of total mortality in the age group 12-59 years on lag 0 day (RR = 1.43; CI: 1.02-1.99). A high increase in total mortality was observed among men at lag 0 day (RR = 1.38; CI: 1.05-1.83). We did not find any short-term association between total and cause-specific mortality and cold days. Deaths from neither infectious nor external causes were associated with heat or cold. Our results showed a strong and rather immediate relationship between high temperatures and non-infectious disease mortality in a rural population located in western India, during 2003-2012. This study may be used to develop targeted interventions such as Heat Early Warning Systems in the area to reduce mortality from extreme temperatures.

Climate Variability and the Occurrence of Human Puumala Hantavirus Infections in Europe: A Systematic Review

Hantaviruses are distributed worldwide and are transmitted by rodents. In Europe, the infection usually manifests as a mild form of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) known as nephropathia epidemica (NE), which is triggered by the virus species Puumala. Its host is the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In the context of climate change, interest in the role of climatic factors for the disease has increased. A systematic review was conducted to investigate the association between climate variability and the occurrence of human Puumala hantavirus infections in Europe. We performed a literature search in the databases MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science. Studies that investigated Puumala virus infection and climatic factors in any European country with a minimum collection period of 2 years were included. The selection of abstracts and the evaluation of included studies were performed by two independent reviewers. A total of 434 titles were identified in the databases, of which nine studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The majority of studies were conducted in central Europe (Belgium, France and Germany), while only two came from the north (Sweden) and one from the south (Bosnia). Strong evidence was found for a positive association between temperature and NE incidence in central Europe, while the evidence for northern Europe so far appears insufficient. Results regarding precipitation were contradictory. Overall, the complex relationships between climate and hantavirus infections need further exploration to identify specific health risks and initiate appropriate intervention measures in the context of climate change.

Association of climatic factors with infectious diseases in the Arctic and subarctic region--a systematic review

Background

The Arctic and subarctic area are likely to be highly affected by climate change, with possible impacts on human health due to effects on food security and infectious diseases.

Objectives

To investigate the evidence for an association between climatic factors and infectious diseases, and to identify the most climate-sensitive diseases and vulnerable populations in the Arctic and subarctic region.

Methods

A systematic review was conducted. A search was made in PubMed, with the last update in May 2013. Inclusion criteria included human cases of infectious disease as outcome, climate or weather factor as exposure, and Arctic or subarctic areas as study origin. Narrative reviews, case reports, and projection studies were excluded. Abstracts and selected full texts were read and evaluated by two independent readers. A data collection sheet and an adjusted version of the SIGN methodology checklist were used to assess the quality grade of each article.

Results

In total, 1953 abstracts were initially found, of which finally 29 articles were included. Almost half of the studies were carried out in Canada (n=14), the rest from Sweden (n=6), Finland (n=4), Norway (n=2), Russia (n=2), and Alaska, US (n=1). Articles were analyzed by disease group: food- and waterborne diseases, vector-borne diseases, airborne viral- and airborne bacterial diseases. Strong evidence was found in our review for an association between climatic factors and food- and waterborne diseases. The scientific evidence for a link between climate and specific vector- and rodent-borne diseases was weak due to that only a few diseases being addressed in more than one publication, although several articles were of very high quality. Air temperature and humidity seem to be important climatic factors to investigate further for viral- and bacterial airborne diseases, but from our results no conclusion about a causal relationship could be drawn.

Conclusions

More studies of high quality are needed to investigate the adverse health impacts of weather and climatic factors in the Arctic and subarctic region. No studies from Greenland or Iceland were found, and only a few from Siberia and Alaska. Disease and syndromic surveillance should be part of climate change adaptation measures in the Arctic and subarctic regions, with monitoring of extreme weather events known to pose a risk for certain infectious diseases implemented at the community level.

Synthesis of conjugation-ready zwitterionic oligosaccharides by chemoselective thioglycoside activation

A method to chemoselectively activate thioglycosides in the presence of thioethers is developed and applied in the total synthesis of repeating units of S. pneumoniae Sp1 and B. fragilis PS A1. Biochemical evaluation of these glycans is performed after conjugation to reporter moieties.

The influence of seasonal climate variability on mortality in pre-industrial Sweden

Background

Recent studies have shown an association between weather and climatic factors with mortality, cardiovascular and infectious diseases. We used historical data to investigate the impact of seasonal temperature and precipitation on total mortality in Uppsala, Sweden, during the first two stages of the demographic transition, 1749–1859.

Design

We retrieved mortality and population numbers of the Uppsala Domkyrka parish from digitised parish records and obtained monthly temperature and precipitation measures recorded in Uppsala during that time. Statistical models were established for year-to-year variability in deaths by annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation, adjusting for longer time trends. In a second step, a model was established for three different periods to study changes in the association of climate variability and mortality over time. Relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated.

Results

Precipitation during spring and autumn was significantly associated with annual mortality (spring RR 0.982, CI 0.965–1.000; autumn RR 1.018, CI 1.004–1.032, respectively, per centimetre increase of precipitation). Higher springtime temperature decreased annual mortality, while higher summer temperature increased the death toll; however, both were only borderline significant (p=0.07). The significant effect of springtime precipitation for mortality was present only in the first two periods (1749–1785 and 1786–1824). On the contrary, the overall effect of autumn precipitation was mainly due to its relevance during the last period, 1825–1859 (RR 1.024, CI 0.997–1.052). At that time, higher winter precipitation was found to decrease mortality.

Conclusions

In urban Uppsala, during the 18th and 19th century, precipitation appeared to be a stronger predictor for mortality than temperature. Higher spring precipitation decreased and higher autumn precipitation increased the number of deaths. However, this association differed before and during the early stages of industrialisation. Further research shall take age-specific differences into account, as well as changes in socio-economic conditions during that time.

The role of psychosocial stress at work for the development of cardiovascular diseases: a systematic review

PURPOSE

A systematic review was carried out to assess evidence for the association between different models of stress at work, and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

A literature search was conducted using five databases (MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, PSYNDEX and PsycINFO). Inclusion criteria for studies were the following: self-reported stress for individual workplaces, prospective study design and incident disease (myocardial infarction, stroke, angina pectoris, high blood pressure). Evaluation, according to the criteria of the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network, was done by two readers. In case of disagreement, a third reader was involved.

RESULTS

Twenty-six publications were included, describing 40 analyses out of 20 cohorts. The risk estimates for work stress were associated with a statistically significant increased risk of cardiovascular disease in 13 out of the 20 cohorts. Associations were significant for 7 out of 13 cohorts applying the demand-control model, all three cohorts using the effort-reward model and 3 out of 6 cohorts investigating other models. Most significant results came from analyses considering only men. Results for the association between job stress and cardiovascular diseases in women were not clear. Associations were weaker in participants above the age of 55.

CONCLUSIONS

In accordance with other systematic reviews, this review stresses the importance of psychosocial factors at work in the aetiology of cardiovascular diseases. Besides individual measures to manage stress and to cope with demanding work situations, organisational changes at the workplace need to be considered to find options to reduce occupational risk factors for cardiovascular diseases.

Association of childhood and adult socioeconomic indicators with cardiovascular risk factors and its modification by age: the CARLA Study 2002-2006

BACKGROUND

The influence of socioeconomic status (SES) on cardiovascular diseases and risk factors is widely known, although the role of different SES indicators is not fully understood. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of different SES indicators for cardiovascular disease risk factors in a middle and old aged East German population.

METHODS

Cross-sectional data of an East German population-based cohort study (1779 men and women aged 45 to 83) were used to assess the association of childhood and adulthood SES indicators (childhood SES, education, occupational position, income) with cardiovascular risk factors. Adjusted means and odds ratios of risk factors by SES indicators with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated by linear and logistic regression models, stratified by sex. The interaction effect of education and age on cardiovascular risk factors was tested by including an interaction term.

RESULTS

In age-adjusted models, education, occupational position, and income were statistically significantly associated with abdominal obesity in men, and with smoking in both sexes. Men with low education had a more than threefold risk of being a smoker (OR 3.44, CI 1.58-7.51). Low childhood SES was associated with higher systolic blood pressure and abdominal obesity in women (OR 2.27, CI 1.18-4.38 for obesity); a non-significant but (in terms of effect size) relevant association of childhood SES with smoking was observed in men. In women, age was an effect modifier for education in the risk of obesity and smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

We found considerable differences in cardiovascular risk factors by education, occupational position, income, and partly by childhood social status, differing by sex. Some social inequalities levelled off in higher age. Longitudinal studies are needed to differentiate between age and birth cohort effects.

The gender perspective in climate change and global health

BACKGROUND

Population health is a primary goal of sustainable development. United Nations international conferences like the Beijing Platform for Action have highlighted the key role of women in ensuring sustainable development. In the context of climate change, women are affected the most while they display knowledge and skills to orient themselves toward climate adaptation activities within their societies.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate how the gender perspective is addressed as an issue in research and policy-making concerning climate change and global health.

METHODS

A broad literature search was undertaken using the databases Pubmed and Web of Science to explore the terms 'climate change,' 'health,' 'gender,' and 'policy.' Climate change and health-related policy documents of the World Health Organization (WHO) and National Communications and National Adaptation Programs of Action reports submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change of selected countries were studied. Assessment guidelines to review these reports were developed from this study's viewpoint.

RESULTS

The database search results showed almost no articles when the four terms were searched together. The WHO documents lacked a gender perspective in their approach and future recommendations on climate policies. The reviewed UN reports were also neutral to gender perspective except one of the studied documents.

CONCLUSION

Despite recognizing the differential effects of climate change on health of women and men as a consequence of complex social contexts and adaptive capacities, the study finds gender to be an underrepresented or non-existing variable both in research and studied policy documents in the field of climate change and health.

Lifestyle factors and lumbar disc disease: results of a German multi-center case-control study (EPILIFT)

Introduction

In the large-scale case-control study EPILIFT, we investigated the dose-response relationship between lifestyle factors (weight, smoking amount, cumulative duration of different sports activities) and lumbar disc disease.

Methods

In four German study regions (Frankfurt am Main, Freiburg, Halle/Saale, Regensburg), 564 male and female patients with lumbar disc herniation and 351 patients with lumbar disc narrowing (chondrosis) aged 25 to 70 years were prospectively recruited. From the regional population registers, 901 population control subjects were randomly selected. In a structured personal interview, we enquired as to body weight at different ages, body height, cumulative smoking amount and cumulative duration of different sports activities. Confounders were selected according to biological plausibility and to the change-in-estimate criterion. Adjusted, gender-stratified odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated using unconditional logistic regression analysis.

Results

The results of this case-control study reveal a positive association between weight and lumbar disc herniation as well as lumbar disc narrowing among men and women. A medium amount of pack-years was associated with lumbar disc herniation and narrowing in men and women. A non-significantly lowered risk of lumbar disc disease was found in men with high levels of cumulative body building and strength training.

Conclusions

According to our multi-center case-control study, body weight might be related to lumbar disc herniation as well as to lumbar disc narrowing. Further research should clarify the potential protective role of body building or strength training on lumbar disc disease.

Cumulative occupational lumbar load and lumbar disc disease--results of a German multi-center case-control study (EPILIFT)

Background

The to date evidence for a dose-response relationship between physical workload and the development of lumbar disc diseases is limited. We therefore investigated the possible etiologic relevance of cumulative occupational lumbar load to lumbar disc diseases in a multi-center case-control study.

Methods

In four study regions in Germany (Frankfurt/Main, Freiburg, Halle/Saale, Regensburg), patients seeking medical care for pain associated with clinically and radiologically verified lumbar disc herniation (286 males, 278 females) or symptomatic lumbar disc narrowing (145 males, 206 females) were prospectively recruited. Population control subjects (453 males and 448 females) were drawn from the regional population registers. Cases and control subjects were between 25 and 70 years of age. In a structured personal interview, a complete occupational history was elicited to identify subjects with certain minimum workloads. On the basis of job task-specific supplementary surveys performed by technical experts, the situational lumbar load represented by the compressive force at the lumbosacral disc was determined via biomechanical model calculations for any working situation with object handling and load-intensive postures during the total working life. For this analysis, all manual handling of objects of about 5 kilograms or more and postures with trunk inclination of 20 degrees or more are included in the calculation of cumulative lumbar load. Confounder selection was based on biologic plausibility and on the change-in-estimate criterion. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated separately for men and women using unconditional logistic regression analysis, adjusted for age, region, and unemployment as major life event (in males) or psychosocial strain at work (in females), respectively. To further elucidate the contribution of past physical workload to the development of lumbar disc diseases, we performed lag-time analyses.

Results

We found a positive dose-response relationship between cumulative occupational lumbar load and lumbar disc herniation as well as lumbar disc narrowing among men and women. Even past lumbar load seems to contribute to the risk of lumbar disc disease.

Conclusion

According to our study, cumulative physical workload is related to lumbar disc diseases among men and women.

[Radiological diagnosis of lumbar prolaps with quantitative and morphological criteria]

PURPOSE

The present study examines the differences of radiological diagnosis of lumbar prolaps with quantitative and morphological criteria. Advantages and disadvantages of both methods were analysed.

METHOD

Concerning the "Deutsche Wirbelsäulenstudie" (DWS) 286 male and 278 female patients between 25 and 70 years of age undergoing clinical or ambulant therapy for radicular symptoms and the diagnosis of a lumbar prolaps in CT and/or MRT were integrated into our study. Actual MRT and CT pictures of the patients' lumbar spine were analysed by an independent radiologist (primary radiologist). Radiological diagnosis was concerned with quantitative and morphological criteria. Radiological images of 100 selected patients were reexamined by another radiologist (secondary radiologist). On the basis of these results, the interobserver reliability (kappa) was calculated.

RESULTS

In 95.2% of all segments a prolaps was seen with quantitative and morphological criteria, in 4.5% a prolaps was analysed with quantitative and in 0.3% a prolaps was seen with morphological criteria. The radiological diagnosis of prolaps by quantitative criteria was confirmed by the operative findings. Many prolapses with lateral localisation were seen in these cases. Therefore radiological diagnosis on the basis of morphological criteria could be difficult. For both radiological methods similar interobserver reliabilities were calculated. To sum up both radiological methods are even equivalent. It is also possible to graduate the diagnosis with quantitative criteria. Detrimental effects of quantitative criteria could be difficulties in measurement with non-digital images.

CONCLUSION

Besides several recommendations in the international literature on the radiological analysis of prolaps with morphological criteria, diagnosis with quantitative criteria is also an effective method.