Effectiveness and failure rate of the varicella vaccine in an outbreak in Jiangsu, China: a 1:2 matched case-control study

The epidemiology of varicella and effectiveness of varicella vaccine in Ganyu, China: a long-term community surveillance study

BACKGROUND

The real-world data of long-term protection under moderate vaccination coverage is limited. This study aimed to evaluate varicella epidemiology and the long-term effectiveness under moderate coverage levels in Ganyu District, Lianyungang City, Jiangsu Province.

METHODS

This was a population-based, retrospective birth cohort study based on the immunization information system (IIS) and the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) in Ganyu District. Varicella cases reported from 2009 to 2020 were included to describe the epidemiology of varicella, and eleven-year consecutive birth cohorts (2008-2018) were included to estimate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of varicella by Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 155,232 native children and 3,251 varicella cases were included. The vaccination coverage was moderate with 37.1%, correspondingly, the annual incidence of varicella infection increased 4.4-fold from 2009 to 2020. A shift of the varicella cases to older age groups was observed, with the peak proportion of cases shifting from 5-6 year-old to 7-8 year-old. The adjusted effectiveness of one dose of vaccine waned over time, and the adjusted VE decreased from 72.9% to 41.8% in the one-dose group.

CONCLUSIONS

The insufficient vaccination coverage (37.1%) may have contributed in part to the rising annual incidence of varicella infection, and a shift of varicella cases to older age groups occurred. The effectiveness of one dose of varicella vaccine was moderate and waned over time. It is urgent to increase varicella vaccine coverage to 80% to reduce the incidence of varicella and prevent any potential shift in the age at infection in China.

Assessing vaccine effectiveness for varicella in Wuxi, China: a time-series analysis

OBJECTIVE

The varicella vaccine is not included in the national childhood immunization schedules in China. Varicella epidemics and outbreaks are frequently reported, and the evidence for the effectiveness of the varicella vaccine remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate varicella vaccine effectiveness in Wuxi, China.

METHODS

Varicella surveillance data were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, and vaccination data were obtained from the Vaccination Integrated Service Management Information System of Jiangsu Province, China. Time-series analysis approaches were used to estimate varicella vaccine effectiveness.

RESULTS

A total of 16,093 varicella cases among children aged 1-6 years between January 2016 and December 2020 were analysed. A total of 217,297 children completed a two-dose varicella vaccination series. Compared with districts with lower vaccination rates, districts in Wuxi with higher varicella vaccination rates had a lower proportion of cases (p < 0.001). In the time-series approach, 0.8% fewer varicella cases were associated with a 1% increase in the two-dose varicella vaccination rate (p < 0.001), and similar effects were found in both the male and female populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Two-dose varicella vaccination was recommended as an effective health intervention to prevent varicella in Wuxi, China. Varicella vaccination is urgently needed in routine childhood immunisation programs.

Evaluating the impact of universal varicella vaccination among preschool-aged children in Qingdao, China: An interrupted time-series analysis

Varicella is a contagious disease of children. Qingdao administrated free one-dose and free two-dose universal varicella vaccination schedules in 2013 and 2016 for preschool children. The effectiveness of the vaccination was analyzed in this study. Monthly varicella incidence data of 1-6 years old children during 2007-2020 were obtained from the Qingdao Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System. We applied Interrupted time series and segmented regression analyses to assess changes in varicella incidence at the beginning of each month and average monthly changes during the vaccination. The vaccination was associated with a reduction of 32.7% in varicella morbidity on average during the 8-year intervention, there is a statistically significant difference between the voluntary period and free vaccination period (χ² = 290.80,P < 0.001). Immediately after the free one-dose vaccination implementation in 2013 and free two-dose vaccination implementation in 2016, varicella incidence decreased by 0.135 cases per 100 000 population (P < 0.001) and increased by 1.189 cases per 100 000 population (P = 0.039), respectively, the results were statistically significant. There were significant declining trends in varicella incidence after free vaccination: 0.135(P < 0.001) and 0.055 (P = 0.025) per month in 2013.7-2016.6 and 2016.7-2020.12, respectively. This study shows a further decaying trend of varicella incidence based on the impact of free two-dose vaccination. It is necessary to prolong free two-dose universal varicella vaccination to strengthen the immune barrier of preschool children sequentially.

Vaccine Coverage and Effectiveness in a School-Based Varicella Outbreak in Jinan Prefecture, Shandong Province

Background: Licheng District of Jinan Prefecture reported a school-based varicella outbreak. We conducted an investigation to analyze the epidemiology and scope of the outbreak, determine varicella vaccine coverage on the school campus, and estimate varicella vaccine effectiveness (VE). Methods: In the epidemiological investigation, we determined the attack rate, the clinical manifestations of varicella cases, and histories of prior varicella disease and varicella vaccination. We tested students for presence of serum IgM antibodies, and we attempted to isolate the varicella virus from vesicular fluid samples. We used chi-square to compare incidences between classes and floors. VE was estimated using a retrospective cohort study. Results: There were 13 varicella cases in the outbreak. All were among fourth grade students - twelve in Class 7 and one in Class 6. The attack rate in the two classrooms was 14.3% (13/91). Clinical symptoms were rash (100%) and fever (46.15%). All cases were reported within one average incubation period, and the epidemic curve suggested common exposure. Six of the 13 cases previously received one dose of varicella vaccine with a median time between vaccination and infection of 9 years; the other seven cases had not been vaccinated. Varicella vaccine coverage with one or more doses was 81.31%; 2-dose coverage was 38.15%. The median age of receipt of dose 1 was 1.18 years, and median age for receiving dose 2 was 5.12 years. One-dose varicella VE was 73.2% (95% confidence interval: 37.0%, 88.6%), and two-dose VE was 100%. Conclusions: Varicella vaccine coverage has been gradually increasing in recent years, as ≥1-dose and 2-dose coverage rates are higher in younger children than older children. High one-dose vaccination coverage limited the outbreak scope and led to the breakthrough cases being mild. Mild cases were difficult to detect in a timely manner. Varicella vaccine was highly effective, with 1-dose VE of 73% nine years after vaccination and 2-dose VE of 100%. We strongly recommended that all school students receive two doses of varicella vaccine.

Effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose varicella vaccine in children in Qingdao, China: a matched case-control study

To evaluate whether two-dose of varicella vaccine would provide a better protection to children from varicella than one-dose, we conducted a 1:3 matched case-control study in children in Qingdao, China. A total of 509 varicella cases aged 6-11 y were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). And 1,527 controls, who did not suffer from varicella, were selected and matched with cases by age and class. The varicella vaccine effectiveness (VE) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated. The vaccination coverage rate of one-dose varicella vaccine in the cases was 52.9%, while for the controls was 59.1%. And the two-dose vaccination rate in the cases and controls were 4.3% and 14.5%, respectively. A statistically significant difference was found in the immunization history between the cases and controls (P < .001).The overall varicella VE was 56.1% (95% CI: 45.0%-64.9%), and the VE of two-dose vaccination (81.6%, 95% CI: 70.5%-88.4%) was substantially higher than that of one-dose vaccination (44.7%, 95% CI: 31.6%-55.4%). For less than 2 y, 2-4 y, 4-6 y, and more than 6 y after only one-dose vaccination, the varicella VE were 96.6% (95% CI: 75.0%-99.5%), 81.2% (95% CI: 55.6%-92.0%), 60.8% (95% CI: 46.8%-70.2%), and 18.0% (95% CI: 4.3%-35.6%), respectively. The varicella VE gradually decreased over time (P for trend < 0.001). It is recommended that the coverage of varicella vaccine should be increased and two-dose of varicella vaccine should be included in the National Immunization Program of China.

Waning Effectiveness of One-dose Universal Varicella Vaccination in Korea, 2011-2018: a Propensity Score Matched National Population Cohort

BACKGROUND

Despite high coverage (~98%) of universal varicella vaccination (UVV) in the Republic of Korea since 2005, reduction in the incidence rate of varicella is not obvious. The study aimed to evaluate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of one-dose UVV by timeline and severity of the disease.

METHODS

All children born in Korea in 2011 were included for this retrospective cohort study that analyzed insurance claims data from 2011-2018 and the varicella vaccination records in the immunization registry. Adjusted hazard ratios by Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the VE through propensity score matching by the month of birth, sex, healthcare utilization rate, and region.

RESULTS

Of the total 421,070 newborns in the 2011 birth cohort, 13,360 were matched for age, sex, healthcare utilization rate, and region by the propensity score matching method. A total of 55,940 (13.29%) children were diagnosed with varicella, with the incidence rate 24.2 per 1000 person-year; 13.4% of vaccinated children and 10.4% of unvaccinated children. The VE of one-dose UVV against any varicella was 86.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 81.4-89.5) during the first year after vaccination and 49.9% (95% CI, 43.3-55.7) during the 6-year follow-up period since vaccination, resulting in a 7.2% annual decrease of VE. The overall VE for severe varicella was 66.3%. The VE of two-dose compared to one-dose was 73.4% (95% CI, 72.2-74.6).

CONCLUSION

We found lower long-term VE in one-dose vaccination and waning of effectiveness over time. Longer follow ups of the vaccinated children as well as appropriately designed studies are needed to establish the optimal strategy in preventing varicella in Korea.

A Protein Assembly Hypothesis for Population-Specific Decrease in Dementia with Time

A recent report in the journal, Neurology, documents age-normalized, nation-specific (e.g., United States and Western Europe), progressive decrease of dementia, beginning about 25 years ago. This observation has, thus far, not had explanation. We begin our proposed explanation with the following previous disease construct. (1) Some dementia is caused by innate immune over-response to infections. (2) The innate immune over-response occurs via excessive conversion of amyloid protein to α-sheet conformation. (3) This conversion evolved to inhibit invading microbes by binding microbe-associated α-sheet, e.g., in hyper-expanded capsid intermediates of some viruses. The rarity of human α-sheet makes this inhibition specific for microbial invaders. As foundation, here we observe directly, for the first time, extreme, sheet-like outer shell thinness in a hyper-expanded capsid of phage T3. Based on phage/herpesvirus homology, we propose the following. The above decrease in dementia is caused by varicella-zoster virus (VZV) vaccination, USFDA-approved about 25 years ago; VZV is a herpesvirus and causes chickenpox and shingles. In China and Japan, a cotemporaneous non-decrease is explained by lower anti-VZV vaccination. Co-assembly extension of α-sheet is relatively independent of amino acid sequence. Thus, we project that additional dementia is suppressible by vaccination against other viruses, including other herpesviruses.

Epidemiology of varicella and effectiveness of varicella vaccine in Hangzhou, China, 2019

Background: The varicella vaccine (VarV) is not included in the national childhood immunization schedules in China, although 2-dose VarV (VarV2) were recommended for children at 1 and 4 years of age in Hangzhou since 2014. However, the reported incremental vaccine effectiveness (VE) of VarV2 varies widely among studies. We described the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Hangzhou, assessed the VE of VarV, so as to provide scientific evidence on optimization and adjustment of immunization strategies for varicella prevention in China. Methods: All varicella cases diagnosed in a hospital in Hangzhou are reported to China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). The demographic information of reported varicella cases onset from January 1 to December 31, 2019 was extracted from CISDCP on Jan 31, 2020. The demographic information was obtained from the information system of the National Center for Disease Prevention and Control. We conducted a 1:1 matched case-control study to assess the effectiveness of VarV. Participant data were collected with standardized questionnaires. VarV vaccination status was checked by using Hangzhou Immunization Information System (HZIIS). Results: A total of 11,813 varicella cases were reported in Hangzhou, China, 2019, without any death. Annual estimated incidence of varicella was 120 cases per 100,000 populations in 2019. The overall estimated incidence rate of varicella was high, especially for persons aged 10-19 years old and in suburb areas. The seasonal pattern was apparent, mostly due to the cases among students and children in kindergarten. In total, 218 varicella cases and 218 matched controls were included for evaluating the VE of VarV. VarV vaccination produced a high level of protection against varicella, while VE of VarV2 was even better. VE of VarV1 was 91.0% (95%CI: 81.6%-95.8%), and VE was 98.0% (95.5%-99.2%) for VarV2. Conclusion: Continuous monitoring and management of varicella cases is necessary, especially in those endemic areas, high-risk populations, and peak periods; a 2-dose VarV strategy is highly recommended, and relevant health institutions should consider the inclusion of VarV in the national immunization program to better control varicella epidemic and reduce the burden of varicella.

A Centralized Outbreak of Varicella among Children Attending Preschool in Suzhou, China

BACKGROUND

Varicella vaccine is available for voluntary purchase with a single dose currently recommended for children aged ≥12 months. An epidemiological study was undertaken in order to determine the characteristics of the outbreak, assess vaccine effectiveness, and examine risk factors for vaccine failure.

METHODS

A varicella case was defined as a generalized papulovesicular rash (without other apparent causes) in a child without prior varicella attending the kindergarten during February 22 to April 7 of 2016. Varicella among vaccinated children (breakthrough varicella) was defined as varicella occurring >42 days after vaccination. Children's vaccination status was verified with immunization records through local vaccination information platform.

RESULTS

Of the 738 children, 664 (90.0%) had no prior varicella history. Of these, 364 (54.8%) had received a single-dose varicella vaccine before outbreak. A total of 30 cases occurred in the outbreak, and 9 of them (30%) had breakthrough varicella. Age at vaccination (<15 months vs. ≥15 months) and time since vaccination before the outbreak (<3 years vs. ≥3 years) were not related to the occurrence of breakthrough varicella (P > 0.05). Single-dose varicella vaccination was 64.7% effective in preventing any varicella.

CONCLUSIONS

Single-dose varicella vaccine is effective in reducing the varicella attack rate, but not high enough to prevent outbreak. Timely detection and effective isolation are key factors in controlling varicella. Improving single-dose vaccination coverage and implementing two-dose vaccination strategy should be recommended to provide excellent protection to prevent varicella in the future in Suzhou.