Incidence, survival and mortality trends of bladder cancer in Sweden 1997–2016

Estimates of the lead time in screening for bladder cancer

Some studies have suggested a survival benefit from early treatment of bladder cancer (BC). This benefit may be due in part to a "lead-time" bias (LT), i.e., the time interval between the detection of BC in asymptomatic individuals and the development of symptoms ("backward prolongation of survival"). To estimate the LT of BC, it was assumed that LT corresponds to the ratio between the prevalence of pre-symptomatic BC and the incidence of symptomatic BC. Data on the prevalence of pre-symptomatic BC were derived from published screening studies. Data on the annual incidence of symptomatic BC at the age and gender of the study populations were derived from national registries in the countries in the years in which the screening studies were conducted. The ratios of the prevalence of presymptomatic BC to the incidence of symptomatic BC ranged from 3.3 to 12.1 years when derived from screening for microhematuria, and from 1.8 to 5.3 years when derived from screening for urine cytology and cell markers. The estimates of the LT of BC derived from the ratios between its prevalence in asymptomatic persons and its incidence in the corresponding population were consistent with those previously reported in retrospective and prospective cohort studies. Since these estimates may account for the survival benefit from early treatment of BC, the gain of screening for BC remains uncertain and should be confirmed by controlled randomized trials.

Survival in Kidney and Bladder Cancers in Four Nordic Countries through a Half Century

Kidney and bladder cancers share etiology and relatively good recent survival, but long-term studies are rare. We analyzed survival for these cancers in Denmark, Finland, Norway (NO), and Sweden (SE) over a 50-year period (1971-2020). Relative 1- and 5-year survival data were obtained from the NORDCAN database, and we additionally calculated conditional 5/1-year survival. In 2016-2020, 5-year survivals for male kidney (79.0%) and bladder (81.6%) cancers were best in SE. For female kidney cancer, NO survival reached 80.0%, and for bladder cancer, SE survival reached 76.1%. The magnitude of 5-year survival improvements during the 50-year period in kidney cancer was over 40% units; for bladder cancer, the improvement was over 20% units. Survival in bladder cancer was worse for women than for men, particularly in year 1. In both cancers, deaths in the first year were approximately as many as in the subsequent 4 years. We could document an impressive development for kidney cancer with tripled male and doubled female 5-year survival in 50 years. Additionally, for bladder cancer, a steady improvement was recorded. The current challenges are to curb early mortality and target treatment to reduce long-term mortality.

Long-term survival trends in solid cancers in the Nordic countries marking timing of improvements

Survival studies are an important indicator of the success of cancer control. We analyzed the 5-year relative survival in 23 solid cancers in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden over a 50-year period (1970-2019) at the NORDCAN database accessed from the International Agency for Research on Cancer website. We plotted survival curves in 5-year periods and showed 5-year periodic survival. The survival results were summarized in four groups: (1) cancers with historically good survival (>50% in 1970-1974) which include melanoma and breast, endometrial and thyroid cancers; (2) cancers which constantly improved survival at least 20% units over the 50 year period, including cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, kidney, brain and ovary; (3) cancer with increase in survival >20% units with changes taking place in a narrow time window, including oral, oropharyngeal, testicular and prostate cancers; (4) the remaining cancers with <20% unit improvement in survival including lung, esophageal, liver, pancreatic, bladder, soft tissue, penile, cervical and vulvar cancers. For cancers in groups 1 and 2, the constant development implied multiple improvements in therapy, diagnosis and patient care. Cancers in group 3 included testicular cancers with known therapeutic improvements but for the others large incidence changes probably implied that cancer stage (prostate) or etiology (oropharynx) changed into a more tractable form. Group 4 cancers included those with dismal survival 50 years ago but a clear tendency upwards. In 17 cancers 5-year survival reached between 50% and 100% while in only six cancers it remained at below 50%.

UROSCAN and UROSCANSEQ: a large-scale multicenter effort towards translation of molecular bladder cancer subtypes into clinical practice - from biobank to RNA-sequencing in real time

BACKGROUND

Bladder cancer is molecularly one of the most heterogenous malignancies characterized by equally heterogenous clinical outcomes. Standard morphological assessment with pathology and added immunohistochemical analyses is unable to fully address the heterogeneity, but up to now treatment decisions have been made based on such information only. Bladder cancer molecular subtypes will likely provide means for a more personalized bladder cancer care.

METHODS

To facilitate further development of bladder cancer molecular subtypes and clinical translation, the UROSCAN-biobank was initiated in 2013 to achieve systematic biobanking of preoperative blood and fresh frozen tumor tissue in a population-based setting. In a second phase, we established in 2018 a parallel logistic pipeline for molecular profiling by RNA-sequencing, to develop and validate clinical implementation of molecular subtyping and actionable molecular target identification in real-time.

RESULTS

Until June 2021, 1825 individuals were included in the UROSCAN-biobank, of which 1650 (90%) had primary bladder cancer, 127 (7%) recurrent tumors, and 48 (3%) unknown tumor status. In 159 patients, multiple tumors were sampled, and metachronous tumors were collected in 83 patients. Between 2016 and 2020 the UROSCAN-biobanking included 1122/2999 (37%) of all primary bladder cancer patients in the Southern Healthcare Region. Until June 2021, the corresponding numbers subjected to RNA-sequencing and molecular subtyping was 605 (UROSCANSEQ), of which 52 (9%) samples were not sequenced due to inadequate RNA-quality (n = 47) or technical failure/lost sample (n = 5).

CONCLUSIONS

The UROSCAN-biobanking and UROSCANSEQ-infrastructure for molecular subtyping by real-time RNA-sequencing represents, to our knowledge, the largest effort of evaluating population-wide molecular classification of bladder cancer.

Incidence trends in lung and bladder cancers in the Nordic Countries before and after the smoking epidemic

Cigarette smoking epidemic, which started before the World War II, completely changed the cancer landscape. Reliable incidence data spanning the stepwise spreading epidemic are rare, but the Nordic cancer registries are unique sources in being able to catch the pre-epidemic situation in the female population where smoking became more prevalent after the War. For Swedish men, smoking prevalence has decease early and cancer rates may herald postsmoking rates. We used data from the NORDCAN database, constructed by the cancer registries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, for the analysis of incidence changes in lung and bladder cancers from year 1943 (Denmark), from 1953 (Finland and Norway) and from 1960 (Sweden) until year 2016. The analyses revealed four novel observation relevant to the smoking epidemic. (1) The incidence of lung cancer in Norwegian women in the 1950s, when the smoking prevalence was very low, was 1.8/100 000 (world standard rate), which is at the level of lowest global female rates known to-date; (2) the earliest lung-to-bladder incidence ratio among Norwegian women was 0.64, probably benchmarking the incidence rates prior to the smoking epidemic; (3) bladder cancer incidence for Finnish women diagnosed in the 1950s was 1.2/100 000 which is at the level of the lowest rates currently known and (4) Swedish men with the lowest smoking prevalence in Europe, showed an epochal crossing of lung and bladder cancer incidence rates before year 2015. The data suggest that the approaching of the incidence rates for lung and bladder cancer can be expected in the course of the abating smoking epidemic.

Standardized care pathways for patients with suspected urinary bladder cancer: the Swedish experience

OBJECTIVES

To compare time intervals to diagnosis and treatment, tumor characteristics, and management in patients with primary urinary bladder cancer, diagnosed before and after the implementation of a standardized care pathway (SCP) in Sweden.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from the Swedish National Register of Urinary Bladder Cancer was studied before (2011-2015) and after (2016-2019) SCP. Data about time from referral to transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT), patients and tumor characteristics, and management were analyzed. Subgroup analyses were performed for cT1 and cT2-4 tumors.

RESULTS

Out of 26,795 patients, median time to TURBT decreased from 37 to 27 days after the implementation of SCP. While the proportion of cT2-T4 tumors decreased slightly (22-21%, p < 0.001), this change was not stable over time and the proportions cN + and cM1 remained unchanged. In the subgroups with cT1 and cT2-4 tumors, the median time to TURBT decreased and the proportions of patients discussed at a multidisciplinary team conference (MDTC) increased after SCP. In neither of these subgroups was a change in the proportions of cN + and cM1 observed, while treatment according to guidelines increased after SCP in the cT1 group.

CONCLUSION

After the implementation of SCP, time from referral to TURBT decreased and the proportion of patients discussed at MDTC increased, although not at the levels recommended by guidelines. Thus, our findings point to the need for measures to increase adherence to SCP recommendations and to guidelines.

Trends in the cause of death among patients with bladder cancer in the US SEER population, 1992-2018

BACKGROUND

Bladder cancer (BC) survival has shown no significant improvement. This study investigated the trends in the common causes of death among patients with BC to improve the management and survival of BC.

METHOD

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) (1992-2018) database was utilized to get the data of BC patients. We presented the proportion of six common causes of death in BC patients. We calculated the annual incidence of death due to the six most common causes and analyzed temporal trends in mortality rates using joinpoint regression. The competitive risk model was utilized to analyze the risk factors for death of BC and other causes.

RESULTS

198037 BC patients were enrolled. BC was the most common cause of death (30.62%), followed by other cancers (22.22%), circulatory diseases (20.28%), non-disease causes (11.58%), other non-cancer diseases (8.29%), and respiratory diseases (7.01%). However, the proportion of cases dying from BC gradually decreased from 44.87% in 1992-1996 to 26.74% in 2012-2018. The proportion of deaths due to BC decreased gradually with survival time from diagnosis. Age-standardized temporal trends present an initial increase in BC-specific and other-cause mortality rates. Advanced stage and older age were the most influential risk factors for BC-specific and other-cause death, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Although BC was still the leading cause of death, other causes, especially other cancers and circulatory diseases, gradually became more critical. The management of other comorbid conditions will be a crucial part of the treatment for BC patients, especially for those with prolonged survival and NMIBC tumors.

Survival in bladder and upper urinary tract cancers in Finland and Sweden through 50 years

Survival has improved in bladder cancer but few studies have considered extended periods or covered populations for which medical care is essentially free of charge. We analyzed survival in urothelial cancer (UC, of which vast majority are bladder cancers) in Finland and Sweden over a 50-year period (1967–2016) using data from the NORDCAN database. Finland and Sweden are neighboring countries with largely similar health care systems but higher economic resources and health care expenditure in Sweden. We present results on 1- and 5-year relative survival rates, and additionally provide a novel measure, the difference between 1- and 5-year relative survival, indicating how well survival was maintained between these two periods. Over the 50-year period the median diagnostic age has increased by several years and the incidence in the very old patients has increased vastly. Relative 1- year survival rates increased until early 1990s in both countries, and with minor gains later reaching about 90% in men and 85% in women. Although 5-year survival also developed favorably until early 1990s, subsequent gains were small. Over time, age specific differences in male 1-year survival narrowed but remained wide in 5-year survival. For women, age differences were larger than for men. The limitations of the study were lack of information on treatment and stage. In conclusion, challenges are to improve 5-year survival, to reduce the gender gap and to target specific care to the most common patient group, those of 70 years at diagnosis. The most effective methods to achieve survival gains are to target control of tobacco use, emphasis on early diagnosis with prompt action at hematuria, upfront curative treatment and awareness of high relapse requiring regular cystoscopy follow up.

A prospective multicenter study of visual response-evaluation by cystoscopy in patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy for muscle invasive urinary bladder cancer

PURPOSE

To evaluate a method of transurethral visual response-staging in patients with urothelial muscle-invasive urinary bladder cancer (MIBC), undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and radical cystectomy (RC).

METHODS

A prospective study at four Swedish cystectomy centers, cystoscopy was performed after final NAC-cycle for MIBC. Fifty-six participants underwent cystoscopy for visual staging of the tumor immediately pre-RC. Visual assessments were correlated to pathoanatomical outcomes post-RC.

RESULTS

Seventeen tumors were classified as complete response (CR), i.e. pT0. Twenty-five patients had residual MIBC and 14 had non-muscle invasive residual tumors (NMIBC). Of the 39 patients with residual tumor, 25 were correctly identified visually (64%). Eleven patients were pN+. The diagnostic accuracy of cystoscopy to correctly identify complete response or remaining tumor was 70% (CI = 56-81%) with a sensitivity of 64% (CI = 47-79%), specificity 82% (CI = 57-96%), PPV 89% (CI = 74-96%) and NPV 50% (CI =38-61%). Twenty-eight cystoscopy evaluations showed signs of residual tumors and 3/28 (11%) were false positive. In 4/14 patients assessed having residual NMIBC the estimates were correct, 8/14 had histopathological MIBC and 2/14 had CR. In 11/14 patients (79%), the suggested visual assessment of MIBC was correct, 2/14 had NMIBC and 1/14 had CR. Twenty-eight cystoscopies had negative findings, 14 were false negatives (50%), when cystoscopy falsely predicted pT0. Among them there were eight patients with pTa, pT1 or pTis and six MIBC-tumors. In 17 patients with histopathological pT0, 14 were correctly identified with cystoscopy (82%).

CONCLUSION

Cystoscopy after the final NAC-cycle cannot robustly differentiate between NAC-responders and non-responders. Visually, negative MIBC-status cannot be determined safely.

Bladder and upper urinary tract cancers as first and second primary cancers

Background

Previous population‐based studies on second primary cancers (SPCs) in urothelial cancers have focused on known risk factors in bladder cancer patients without data on other urothelial sites of the renal pelvis or ureter.

Aims

To estimate sex‐specific risks for any SPCs after urothelial cancers, and in reverse order, for urothelial cancers as SPCs after any cancer. Such two‐way analysis may help interpret the results.

Methods

We employed standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) to estimate bidirectional relative risks of subsequent cancer associated with urothelial cancers. Patient data were obtained from the Swedish Cancer Registry from years 1990 through 2015.

Results

We identified 46 234 urinary bladder cancers (75% male), 940 ureteral cancers (60% male), and 2410 renal pelvic cancers (57% male). After male bladder cancer, SIRs significantly increased for 9 SPCs, most for ureteral (SIR 41.9) and renal pelvic (17.2) cancers. In the reversed order (bladder cancer as SPC), 10 individual FPCs were associated with an increased risk; highest associations were noted after renal pelvic (21.0) and ureteral (20.9) cancers. After female bladder cancer, SIRs of four SPCs were significantly increased, most for ureteral (87.8) and pelvic (35.7) cancers. Female bladder, ureteral, and pelvic cancers associated are with endometrial cancer.

Conclusions

The risks of recurrent urothelial cancers were very high, and, at most sites, female risks were twice over the male risks. Risks persisted often to follow‐up periods of >5 years, motivating an extended patient follow‐up. Lynch syndrome‐related cancers were associated with particularly female urothelial cancers, calling for clinical vigilance.

A showcase study on personalized in silico drug response prediction based on the genetic landscape of muscle invasive bladder cancer

Improved and cheaper molecular diagnostics allow the shift from "one size fits all" therapies to personalised treatments targeting the individual tumor. However, the wealth of potential targets based on comprehensive sequencing remains a yet unsolved challenge that prevents its routine use in clinical practice. Thus, we designed a workflow that selects the most promising treatment targets based on multi-omics sequencing and in silico drug prediction. In this study we demonstrate the workflow with focus on bladder cancer (BLCA), as there are, to date, no reliable diagnostics available to predict the potential benefit of a therapeutic approach. Within the TCGA-BLCA cohort, our workflow identified a panel of 21 genes and 72 drugs that suggested personalized treatment for 95% of patients-including five genes not yet reported as prognostic markers for clinical testing in BLCA. The automated predictions were complemented by manually curated data, thus allowing for accurate sensitivity- or resistance-directed drug response predictions. We discuss potential improvements of drug-gene interaction databases on the basis of pitfalls that were identified during manual curation.