Eco-evolutionary maintenance of diversity in fluctuating environments

Growing evidence suggests that temporally fluctuating environments are important in maintaining variation both within and between species. To date, however, studies of genetic variation within a population have been largely conducted by evolutionary biologists (particularly population geneticists), while population and community ecologists have concentrated more on diversity at the species level. Despite considerable conceptual overlap, the commonalities and differences of these two alternative paradigms have yet to come under close scrutiny. Here, we review theoretical and empirical studies in population genetics and community ecology focusing on the 'temporal storage effect' and synthesise theories of diversity maintenance across different levels of biological organisation. Drawing on Chesson's coexistence theory, we explain how temporally fluctuating environments promote the maintenance of genetic variation and species diversity. We propose a further synthesis of the two disciplines by comparing models employing traditional frequency-dependent dynamics and those adopting density-dependent dynamics. We then address how temporal fluctuations promote genetic and species diversity simultaneously via rapid evolution and eco-evolutionary dynamics. Comparing and synthesising ecological and evolutionary approaches will accelerate our understanding of diversity maintenance in nature.

Coevolution of Patch Selection in Stochastic Environments

AbstractSpecies interact in landscapes where environmental conditions vary in time and space. This variability impacts how species select habitat patches. Under equilibrium conditions, evolution of this patch selection can result in ideal free distributions where per capita growth rates are zero in occupied patches and negative in unoccupied patches. These ideal free distributions, however, do not explain why species occupy sink patches, why competitors have overlapping spatial ranges, or why predators avoid highly productive patches. To understand these patterns, we solve for coevolutionarily stable strategies (coESSs) of patch selection for multispecies stochastic Lotka-Volterra models accounting for spatial and temporal heterogeneity. In occupied patches at the coESS, we show that the differences between the local contributions to the mean and the variance of the long-term population growth rate are equalized. Applying this characterization to models of antagonistic interactions reveals that environmental stochasticity can partially exorcize the ghost of competition past, select for new forms of enemy-free and victimless space, and generate hydra effects over evolutionary timescales. Viewing our results through the economic lens of modern portfolio theory highlights why the coESS for patch selection is often a bet-hedging strategy coupling stochastic sink populations. Our results highlight how environmental stochasticity can reverse or amplify evolutionary outcomes as a result of species interactions or spatial heterogeneity.

How does genetic architecture affect eco-evolutionary dynamics? A theoretical perspective

Recent studies have revealed the importance of feedbacks between contemporary rapid evolution (i.e. evolution that occurs through changes in allele frequencies) and ecological dynamics. Despite its inherent interdisciplinary nature, however, studies on eco-evolutionary feedbacks have been mostly ecological and tended to focus on adaptation at the phenotypic level without considering the genetic architecture of evolutionary processes. In empirical studies, researchers have often compared ecological dynamics when the focal species under selection has a single genotype with dynamics when it has multiple genotypes. In theoretical studies, common approaches are models of quantitative traits where mean trait values change adaptively along the fitness gradient and Mendelian traits with two alleles at a single locus. On the other hand, it is well known that genetic architecture can affect short-term evolutionary dynamics in population genetics. Indeed, recent theoretical studies have demonstrated that genetic architecture (e.g. the number of loci, linkage disequilibrium and ploidy) matters in eco-evolutionary dynamics (e.g. evolutionary rescue where rapid evolution prevents extinction and population cycles driven by (co)evolution). I propose that theoretical approaches will promote the synthesis of functional genomics and eco-evolutionary dynamics through models that combine population genetics and ecology as well as nonlinear time-series analyses using emerging big data.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Genetic basis of adaptation and speciation: from loci to causative mutations’.

Evolution of prudent predation in complex food webs

Prudent predators catch sufficient prey to sustain their populations but not as much as to undermine their populations' survival. The idea that predators evolve to be prudent has been dismissed in the 1970s, but the arguments invoked then are untenable in the light of modern evolution theory. The evolution of prudent predation has repeatedly been demonstrated in two-species predator-prey metacommunity models. However, the vigorous population fluctuations that these models predict are not widely observed. Here we show that in complex model food webs prudent predation evolves as a result of consumer-mediated ('apparent') competitive exclusion of resources, which disadvantages aggressive consumers and does not generate such fluctuations. We make testable predictions for empirical signatures of this mechanism and its outcomes. Then we discuss how these predictions are borne out across freshwater, marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Demonstrating explanatory power of evolved prudent predation well beyond the question of predator-prey coexistence, the predicted signatures explain unexpected declines of invasive alien species, the shape of stock-recruitment relations of fish, and the clearance rates of pelagic consumers across the latitudinal gradient and 15 orders of magnitude in body mass. Specific research to further test this theory is proposed.

The sources of variation for individual prey-to-predator size ratios

The relative body size at which predators are willing to attack prey, a key trait for predator-prey interactions, is usually considered invariant. However, this ratio can vary widely among individuals or populations. Identifying the range and origin of such variation is key to understanding the strength and constraints on selection in both predators and prey. Still, these sources of variation remain largely unknown. We filled this gap by measuring the genetic, maternal and environmental variation of the maximum prey-to-predator size ratio (PPSR_max) in juveniles of the wolf spider Lycosa fasciiventris using a paternal half-sib split-brood design, in which each male was paired with two females and the offspring reared in two food environments: poor and rich. Each juvenile spider was then sequentially offered crickets of decreasing size and the maximum prey size killed was determined. We also measured body size and body condition of spiders upon emergence and just before the trial. We found low, but significant heritability (h² = 0.069) and dominance and common environmental variance (d² + 4c² = 0.056). PPSR_max was also partially explained by body condition (during trial) but there was no effect of the rearing food environment. Finally, a maternal correlation between body size early in life and PPSR_max indicated that offspring born larger were less predisposed to feed on larger prey later in life. Therefore, PPSR_max, a central trait in ecosystems, can vary widely and this variation is due to different sources, with important consequences for changes in this trait in the short and long terms.

Ecological Consequences of Intraspecific Variation in Coevolutionary Systems

AbstractThe patterns and outcomes of coevolution are expected to depend on intraspecific trait variation. Various evolutionary factors can change this variation in time. As a result, modeling coevolutionary processes solely in terms of mean trait values may not be sufficient; one may need to study the dynamics of the whole trait distribution. Here, we develop a theoretical framework for studying the effects of evolving intraspecific variation in two-species coevolutionary systems. In particular, we build and study mathematical models of competition, exploiter-victim interactions, and mutualism in which the strength of within- and between-species interactions depends on the difference in continuously varying traits between individuals reproducing asexually. We use analytical approximations based on the invasion analysis and supplement them with numerical results. We find that intraspecific variation can be maintained if stabilizing selection is weak in at least one species. When intraspecific variation is maintained under competition or mutualism, coexistence in a stable equilibrium is promoted when between-species interactions mostly happen between individuals similar in trait values. In contrast, in exploiter-victim systems coexistence typically requires strong interactions between dissimilar exploiters and victims. We show that trait distributions can become multimodal. Our approach and results contribute to the understanding of the ecological consequences of intraspecific variation in coevolutionary systems by exploring its effects on population densities and trait distributions.

Intraspecific Adaptation Load: A Mechanism for Species Coexistence

Evolutionary ecological theory suggests that selection arising from interactions with conspecifics, such as sexual and kin selection, may result in evolution of intraspecific conflicts and evolutionary 'tragedy of the commons'. Here, we propose that such an evolution of conspecific conflicts may affect population dynamics in a way that enhances species coexistence. Empirical evidence and theoretical models suggest that more abundant species is more susceptible to invasion of 'selfish' individuals that increase their own reproductive success at the expense of population growth (intraspecific adaptation load). The density-dependent intraspecific adaptation load gives rise to a self-regulation mechanism at the population level, and stabilizes species coexistence at the community level by negative frequency-dependence.

Predator coexistence through emergent fitness equalization

The competitive exclusion principle is one of the oldest ideas in ecology and states that without additional self-limitation two predators cannot coexist on a single prey. The search for mechanisms allowing coexistence despite this has identified niche differentiation between predators as crucial: without this, coexistence requires the predators to have exactly the same R* values, which is considered impossible. However, this reasoning misses a critical point: predators' R* values are not static properties, but affected by defensive traits of their prey, which in turn can adapt in response to changes in predator densities. Here I show that this feedback between defense and predator dynamics enables stable predator coexistence without ecological niche differentiation. Instead, the mechanism driving coexistence is that prey adaptation causes defense to converge to the value where both predators have equal R* values ("fitness equalization"). This result is highly general, independent of specific model details, and applies to both rapid defense evolution and inducible defenses. It demonstrates the importance of considering long-standing ecological questions from an eco-evolutionary viewpoint, and showcases how the effects of adaptation can cascade through communities, driving diversity on higher trophic levels. These insights offer an important new perspective on coexistence theory.

Rapid evolution of prey maintains predator diversity

Factors maintaining the populations of diverse species that share limited resources or prey remain important issues in ecology. In the present study, I propose that heritable intraspecific variation in prey, which facilitates natural selection, is a key to solve this issue. A mathematical model reveals that diverse genotypes in a prey promote the coexistence of multiple predator species. When two predators share a prey with multiple genotypes, evolution nearly selects the two prey genotypes. Through analysis, I establish a condition of coexistence of such multiple predator-one prey interaction with two genotypes. If each prey type has high defensive capacity against different predator species, stable coexistence is likely to occur. Particularly, interspecific variations of life-history parameters allow the coexistence equilibrium to be stable. In addition, rapid evolution in a prey allows more than two predator species to coexist. Furthermore, mutation tends to stabilize otherwise unstable systems. These results suggest that intraspecific variation in a prey plays a key role in the maintenance of diverse predator species by driving adaptive evolution.

Eco-evolutionary feedbacks between prey densities and linkage disequilibrium in the predator maintain diversity

Diversity occurs at multiple scales. Within a single population, there is diversity in genotypes and phenotypes. At a larger scale, within ecological communities, there is diversity in species. A number of studies have investigated how diversity at these two scales influence each other through what has been termed eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Here we study a three-species ecological module called apparent competition, in which the predator is evolving in a trait that determines its interaction with two prey species. Unlike previous studies on apparent competition, which employed evolutionary frameworks with very simple genetics, we study an eco-evolutionary model in which the predator's trait is determined by two recombining diallelic loci, so that its mean and variance can evolve, as well as associations (linkage disequilibrium) between the loci. We ask how eco-evolutionary feedbacks with these two loci affect the coexistence of the prey species and the maintenance of polymorphisms within the predator species. We uncover a novel eco-evolutionary feedback between the prey densities and the linkage disequilibrium between the predator's loci. Through a stability analysis, we demonstrate how these feedbacks affect polymorphisms at both loci and, among others, may generate stable cycling.

Persistence and extinction for stochastic ecological models with internal and external variables

The dynamics of species' densities depend both on internal and external variables. Internal variables include frequencies of individuals exhibiting different phenotypes or living in different spatial locations. External variables include abiotic factors or non-focal species. These internal or external variables may fluctuate due to stochastic fluctuations in environmental conditions. The interplay between these variables and species densities can determine whether a particular population persists or goes extinct. To understand this interplay, we prove theorems for stochastic persistence and exclusion for stochastic ecological difference equations accounting for internal and external variables. Specifically, we use a stochastic analog of average Lyapunov functions to develop sufficient and necessary conditions for (i) all population densities spending little time at low densities i.e. stochastic persistence, and (ii) population trajectories asymptotically approaching the extinction set with positive probability. For (i) and (ii), respectively, we provide quantitative estimates on the fraction of time that the system is near the extinction set, and the probability of asymptotic extinction as a function of the initial state of the system. Furthermore, in the case of persistence, we provide lower bounds for the expected time to escape neighborhoods of the extinction set. To illustrate the applicability of our results, we analyze stochastic models of evolutionary games, Lotka-Volterra dynamics, trait evolution, and spatially structured disease dynamics. Our analysis of these models demonstrates environmental stochasticity facilitates coexistence of strategies in the hawk-dove game, but inhibits coexistence in the rock-paper-scissors game and a Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model. Furthermore, environmental fluctuations with positive auto-correlations can promote persistence of evolving populations and persistence of diseases in patchy landscapes. While our results help close the gap between the persistence theories for deterministic and stochastic systems, we highlight several challenges for future research.

An ecological and evolutionary perspective on species coexistence under global change

Whether assemblages of insect species locally coexist or are only being slowly lost from communities remains an enduring question. Addressing this question is especially critical in the wake of global change, which is expected to reshuffle biological communities and create novel interspecific interactions. In reviewing studies of putative insect species coexistence, we find that few have demonstrated necessary criteria to conclude that species coexist. We also find that few integrate ecological and evolutionary perspectives towards understanding coexistence. Yet, both micro-evolutionary and macroevolutionary processes can play a critical role in shaping species coexistence mechanisms, especially in response to global change. We suggest that understanding how global change may affect the makeup of communities can be best achieved by developing a research program focused on the joint contribution of ecological and evolutionary processes.