Variation in Avian Predation Pressure as a Driver for the Diversification of Periodical Cicada Broods

AbstractPeriodical cicadas live 13 or 17 years underground as nymphs, then emerge in synchrony as adults to reproduce. Developmentally synchronized populations called broods rarely coexist, with one dominant brood locally excluding those that emerge in off years. Twelve modern 17-year cicada broods are believed to have descended from only three ancestral broods following the last glaciation. The mechanisms by which these daughter broods overcame exclusion by the ancestral brood to synchronously emerge in a different year, however, are elusive. Here, we demonstrate that temporal variation in the population density of generalist predators can allow intermittent opportunities for new broods to invade, even though a single brood remains dominant most of the time. We show that this mechanism is consistent, in terms of the type and frequency of brood replacements, with the distribution of periodical cicada broods throughout North America today. Although we investigate one particularly charismatic case study, the mechanisms involved (competitive exclusion, Allee effects, trait variation, predation, and temporal variability) are ubiquitous and could contribute to patterns of species diversity in a range of systems.

How do cicadas emerge together? Thermophysical aspects of their collective decision-making

Periodical cicadas exhibit life cycles with durations of 13 or 17 years, and it is now accepted that large prime cycles arose to avoid synchrony with predators. Less well explored is how, in the face of intrinsic biological and environmental noise, insects within a brood emerge together in large successive swarms from underground during springtime warming. Here, we consider the decision-making process of underground cicadas experiencing random, spatially correlated thermal microclimates such as those in nature. Introducing short-range communication between insects leads to an Ising model of consensus building with a quenched, spatially correlated random magnetic field and annealed site dilution, which displays the kinds of collective swarms seen in nature. These results highlight the need for fieldwork to quantify the spatial fluctuations in thermal microclimates and their relationship to the spatiotemporal dynamics of swarm emergence.

Periodical cicadas disrupt trophic dynamics through community-level shifts in avian foraging

Once every 13 or 17 years within eastern North American deciduous forests, billions of periodical cicadas concurrently emerge from the soil and briefly satiate a diverse array of naive consumers, offering a rare opportunity to assess the cascading impacts of an ecosystem-wide resource pulse on a complex food web. We quantified the effects of the 2021 Brood X emergence and report that more than 80 bird species opportunistically switched their foraging to include cicadas, releasing herbivorous insects from predation and essentially doubling both caterpillar densities and accumulated herbivory levels on host oak trees. These short-lived but massive emergence events help us to understand how resource pulses can rewire interaction webs and disrupt energy flows in ecosystems, with potentially long-lasting effects.

Noise-induced versus intrinsic oscillation in ecological systems

Studies of oscillatory populations have a long history in ecology. A first-principles understanding of these dynamics can provide insights into causes of population regulation and help with selecting detailed predictive models. A particularly difficult challenge is determining the relative role of deterministic versus stochastic forces in producing oscillations. We employ statistical physics concepts, including measures of spatial synchrony, that incorporate patterns at all scales and are novel to ecology, to show that spatial patterns can, under broad and well-defined circumstances, elucidate drivers of population dynamics. We find that when neighbours are coupled (e.g. by dispersal), noisy intrinsic oscillations become distinguishable from noise-induced oscillations at a transition point related to synchronisation that is distinct from the deterministic bifurcation point. We derive this transition point and show that it diverges from the deterministic bifurcation point as stochasticity increases. The concept of universality suggests that the results are robust and widely applicable.

Advances in the Evolution and Ecology of 13- and 17-Year Periodical Cicadas

Apart from model organisms, 13- and 17-year periodical cicadas (Hemiptera: Cicadidae: Magicicada) are among the most studied insects in evolution and ecology. They are attractive subjects because they predictably emerge in large numbers; have a complex biogeography shaped by both spatial and temporal isolation; and include three largely sympatric, parallel species groups that are, in a sense, evolutionary replicates. Magicicada are also relatively easy to capture and manipulate, and their spectacular, synchronized mass emergences facilitate outreach and citizen science opportunities. Since the last major review, studies of Magicicada have revealed insights into reproductive character displacement and the nature of species boundaries, provided additional examples of allochronic speciation, found evidence for repeated and parallel (but noncontemporaneous) evolution of 13- and 17-year life cycles, quantified the amount and direction of gene flow through time, revealed phylogeographic patterning resulting from paleoclimate change, examined the timing of juvenile development, and created hypotheses for the evolution of life-cycle control and the future effects of climate changeon Magicicada life cycles. New ecological studies have supported and questioned the role of prime numbers in Magicicada ecology and evolution, found bidirectional shifts in population size over generations, quantified the contribution of Magicicada to nutrient flow in forest ecosystems, and examined behavioral and biochemical interactions between Magicicada and their fungal parasites and bacterial endosymbionts.

Sharp boundary formation and invasion between spatially adjacent periodical cicada broods

Periodical cicadas, Magicicada spp., are a useful model system for understanding the population processes that influence range boundaries. Unlike most insects, these species typically exist at very high densities (occasionally >1000/ m²) and have unusually long life-spans (13 or 17 years). They spend most of their lives underground feeding on plant roots. After the underground period, adults emerge from the ground to mate and oviposit over a period of just a few days. Collections of populations that are developmentally synchronized across large areas are known as "broods". There are usually sharp boundaries between spatially adjacent broods and regions of brood overlap are generally small. The exact mechanism behind this developmental synchronization and the sharp boundary between broods remain unknown: previous studies have focused on the impacts of predator-driven Allee-effects, competition among nymphs, and their impacts on the persistence of off-synchronized emergence events. Here, we present a nonlinear Leslie-type matrix model to additionally consider cicada movement between spatially separated broods, and examine its role in maintaining brood boundaries and within-brood developmental synchrony that is seen in nature. We successfully identify ranges of competition and dispersal that lead to stable coexistence of broods that differ between spatial patches.

Evolutionary Hysteresis and Ratchets in the Evolution of Periodical Cicadas

It has been previously hypothesized that the perfectly synchronized mass emergence of periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.) evolved as a result of a switch from size-based to age-based emergence. In the former case, cicada nymphs emerge immediately (at the first opportunity) on reaching maturity, whereas in the latter case, nymphs wait in order to emerge at a specific age. Here we use an individual-based model to simulate the cicada life cycle and to study the evolution of periodicity. We find that if age-based emergence evolves in a constant abiotic environment, it typically results in a population that is protoperiodic, and synchronous emergence of the whole population is not achieved. However, perfect periodicity and synchronous emergence can be attained, if the abiotic environment changes back and forth between favorable and unfavorable conditions (hysteresis). Furthermore, once age-based emergence evolves, generally it can only be invaded by other age-based emergence strategies with longer cycle lengths (evolutionary ratchet). Together, these mechanisms promote the evolution of long periodic life cycles and synchronous emergence in the Magicicada. We discuss how our results connect to previous theories and recent phylogenetic studies on Magicicada evolution.

The winner takes it all: how semelparous insects can become periodical

The aim of this short note is to give a simple explanation for the remarkable periodicity of Magicicada species, which appear as adults only every 13 or 17 years, depending on the region. We show that a combination of two types of density dependence may drive, for large classes of initial conditions, all but 1 year class to extinction. Competition for food leads to negative density dependence in the form of a uniform (i.e., affecting all age classes in the same way) reduction of the survival probability. Satiation of predators leads to positive density dependence within the reproducing age class. The analysis focuses on the full life cycle map derived by iteration of a semelparous Leslie matrix.