ECG-based prediction of atrial fibrillation development following coronary artery bypass grafting

Predicting atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery: a scoping review of associated factors and systematic review of existing prediction models

INTRODUCTION

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is common after cardiac surgery and associated with increased hospital length of stay, patient morbidity and mortality. We aimed to identify factors associated with POAF and evaluate the accuracy of available POAF prediction models.

METHODS

We screened articles from Ovid MEDLINE® and PubMed Central® (PMC) and included studies that evaluated risk factors associated with POAF or studies that designed or validated POAF prediction models. We only included studies in cardiac surgical patients with sample size n ⩾ 50 and a POAF outcome group ⩾20. We summarised factors that were associated with POAF and assessed prediction model performance by reviewing reported calibration and discriminative ability.

RESULTS

We reviewed 232 studies. Of these, 142 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Age was frequently found to be associated with POAF, while most other variables showed contradictory findings, or were assessed in few studies. Overall, 15 studies specifically developed and/or validated 12 prediction models. Of these, all showed poor discrimination or absent calibration in predicting POAF in externally validated cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Except for age, reporting of factors associated with POAF is inconsistent and often contradictory. Prediction models have low discrimination, missing calibration statistics, are at risk of bias and show limited clinical applicability. This suggests the need for studies that prospectively collect AF relevant data in large cohorts and then proceed to validate findings in external data sets.

[Artificial intelligence-based ECG analysis: current status and future perspectives-Part 1 : Basic principles]

Even though electrocardiography is a diagnostic procedure that is now more than 100 years old, medicine cannot do without it. On the contrary, interest in the procedure and its clinical significance is even increasing again. Reports on the evaluation of electrocardiograms (ECGs) with the aid of artificial intelligence (AI) are also responsible for this. Using machine learning and in particular deep learning, both AI subfields, completely new perspectives of ECG evaluation and interpretation arise. The weaknesses inherent in classical computer-assisted ECG evaluation appear to be overcome. This two-part overview deals with AI-based ECG analysis. Part 1 introduces basic aspects of the procedure. Part 2, which is published separately, is devoted to the current state of research and discusses the available studies. In addition, possible scenarios of future application of AI in ECG analysis are discussed.

Preoperative P-wave duration as a predictor of atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass grafting: A prospective cohort study with meta-analysis

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Role of the P-wave high frequency energy and duration as noninvasive cardiovascular predictors of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

A normal cardiac activation starts in the sinoatrial node and then spreads throughout the atrial myocardium, thus defining the P-wave of the electrocardiogram. However, when the onset of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) approximates, a highly disturbed electrical activity occurs within the atria, thus provoking fragmented and eventually longer P-waves. Although this altered atrial conduction has been successfully quantified just before PAF onset from the signal-averaged P-wave spectral analysis, its evolution during the hours preceding the arrhythmia has not been assessed yet. This work focuses on quantifying the P-wave spectral content variability over the 2h preceding PAF onset with the aim of anticipating as much as possible the arrhythmic episode envision. For that purpose, the time course of several metrics estimating absolute energy and ratios of high- to low-frequency power in different bands between 20 and 200Hz has been computed from the P-wave autoregressive spectral estimation. All the analyzed metrics showed an increasing variability trend as PAF onset approximated, providing the P-wave high-frequency energy (between 80 and 150Hz) a diagnostic accuracy around 80% to discern between healthy subjects, patients far from PAF and patients less than 1h close to a PAF episode. This discriminant power was similar to that provided by the most classical time-domain approach, i.e., the P-wave duration. Furthermore, the linear combination of both metrics improved the diagnostic accuracy up to 88.07%, thus constituting a reliable noninvasive harbinger of PAF onset with a reasonable anticipation. The information provided by this methodology could be very useful in clinical practice either to optimize the antiarrhythmic treatment in patients at high-risk of PAF onset and to limit drug administration in low risk patients.

The P Wave Time-Frequency Variability Reflects Atrial Conduction Defects before Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

The study of atrial conduction defects associated with the onset of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) can be addressed by analyzing the P wave from the surface electrocardiogram (ECG). Traditionally, signal-averaged ECGs have been mostly used for this purpose. However, this alternative hinders the possibility to quantify every single P wave, its variability over time, as well as to obtain complimentary and evolving information about the arrhythmia. This work analyzes the time progression of several time and frequency P wave features as potential indicators of atrial conduction variability several hours preceding the onset of PAF.

METHODS

The longest sinus rhythm interval from 24-hour Holter recordings of 46 PAF patients was selected. Next, the 2 hours before the onset of PAF were extracted and divided into two 1-hour periods. Every single P wave was automatically delineated and characterized by 16 time and frequency metrics, such as its duration, absolute energy in several frequency bands and high-to-low-frequency energy ratios. Finally, the P wave variability over each 1-hour period was estimated from the 16 features making use of a least-squares linear fitting. As a reference, the same parameters were also estimated from a set of 1-hour ECG segments randomly chosen from a control group of 53 healthy subjects age-, gender-, and heart rate-matched.

RESULTS

All the analyzed metrics provided an increasing P wave variability trend as the onset of PAF approximated, being P wave duration and P wave high-frequency energy the most significant individual metrics. The linear fitting slope α associated with P wave duration was (2.48 ± 1.98)×10(-2) for healthy subjects, (23.8 ± 14.1)×10(-2) for ECG segments far from PAF and for (81.8 ± 48.7)×10(-2) ECG segments close to PAF p = 6.96×10(-22) . Similarly, the P wave high-frequency energy linear fitting slope was (2.42 ± 4.97)×10(-9) , (54.2 ± 107.1)×10(-9) and (274.2 ± 566.1)×10(-9) , respectively (p = 2.85×10(-20) ). A univariate discriminant analysis provided that both P wave duration and P wave high-frequency energy could discern among the three ECG sets with diagnostic ability around 80%, which was improved up to 88% by combining these metrics in a multivariate discriminant analysis.

CONCLUSION

Alterations in atrial conduction can be successfully quantified several hours before the onset of PAF by estimating variability over time of several time and frequency P wave features.

Gaussian modeling of the P-wave morphology time course applied to anticipate paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

This paper introduces a new algorithm to quantify the P-wave morphology time course with the aim of anticipating as much as possible the onset of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). The method is based on modeling each P-wave with a single Gaussian function and analyzing the extracted parameters variability over time. The selected Gaussian approaches are associated with the amplitude, peak timing, and width of the P-wave. In order to validate the algorithm, electrocardiogram segments 2 h preceding the onset of PAF episodes from 46 different patients were assessed. According to the expected intermittently disturbed atrial conduction before the onset of PAF, all the analyzed Gaussian metrics showed an increasing variability trend as the PAF onset approximated. Moreover, the Gaussian P-wave width reported a diagnostic accuracy around 80% to discern between healthy subjects, patients far from PAF, and patients less than 1 h close to a PAF episode. This discriminant power was similar to those provided by the most classical time-domain approach, i.e., the P-wave duration. However, this newly proposed parameter presents the advantage of being less sensitive to a precise delineation of the P-wave boundaries. Furthermore, the linear combination of both metrics improved the diagnostic accuracy up to 86.69%. In conclusion, morphological P-wave characterization provides additional information to the metrics based on P-wave timing.

Monitoring in cardiovascular disease patients by nonlinear biomedical signal processing

Due to recent advances in technology extensive cardiovascular monitoring is widely introduced today. An essential component of cardiovascular monitoring is the analysis of several biosignals as electrocardiogram, blood pressure and other vital signs. This manuscript provides an overview about several application fields of cardiovascular monitoring with the main focus on nonlinear dynamics analysis.