A research and development roadmap to support applications of the enhanced BIOMASS methodology

On the inclusion of forest exposure pathways into a stylized lake-farm scenario in a geological repository safety analysis

Geological disposal of radioactive waste has been recognized as the 'reference solution' to ensure the safety required for the present and future society and environment. To study the possible exposure pathways from groundwater to humans, radioactive transport modelling is used. One of the ecosystems that may play a significant role when assessing the dose conversion factor (i.e. the dose resulting from a nominal release of 1 Bq/year of each radionuclide) for humans is forest. In this paper we have developed a model of a lake-farm system with a forest component. The biosphere system used in this study represents a typical agricultural scenario in Finland, amended with a typical forest. A lake is assumed to form due to post-glacial land uplift. The main features of this future lake have been obtained from our probabilistic shoreline displacement model. Both deterministic calculations and sensitivity analysis were carried out to simulate the model. The deterministic simulation demonstrates the behaviour of the studied radionuclides (36Cl, 135Cs, 129I, 237Np, 90Sr, 99Tc and 238U) and the proportions of different exposure pathways to humans. Particularly for 135Cs and 129I, forest pathways make a notable contribution to the dose conversion factor. The sensitivity analysis was done using two methods: EFAST and Sobol'. With both methods, the parameters related to the farm contribute the most to the variance of the dose conversion factor for humans. The study demonstrates that the exposure pathways related to forest products may make a considerable contribution to the dose conversion factor in a lake-farm-forest system. It is also confirmed that an advanced sensitivity analysis for a radionuclide transport and dose assessment model on such a landscape scale is feasible even with moderate computational efforts.

Approaches to the definition of potentially exposed groups and potentially exposed populations of biota in the context of solid radioactive waste

A methodology for addressing the biosphere in safety assessments for solid radioactive waste disposal was developed through theme 1 of the IAEA coordinated research project on BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment (BIOMASS) that ran from 1996 to 2001. This methodology provided guidance on how the biosphere can be addressed in safety assessments for disposal of solid radioactive waste. Since the methodology was developed, it has proven useful and has been widely referenced in assessments in a diversity of contexts encompassing both near-surface and deep geological disposal of solid radioactive waste. The principles that could be adopted for defining potentially exposed groups (PEGs) were an important aspect in the original BIOMASS methodology as the endpoint of an assessment usually includes the evaluation of individual dose or risk to human health. Identification of PEGs and definition of their characteristics are usually made to be consistent with the biosphere system description being developed, acknowledging that due to inherent uncertainties in projecting future human behaviour, the biosphere models adopted for assessing safety of a disposal system can only be illustrative. Since the publication of the original BIOMASS methodology, consideration has been extended to include potentially exposed populations of biota (PEPs), in the context of dose assessment and protection of the environment. Considering the need for the development of transfer pathways from a source term to an end point (for either PEGs or PEPs), the exposure modes that may occur and those to be assessed quantitatively should be identified. Within an expert working group (WG6) of the second phase of the IAEA coordinated project Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments (MODARIA II), the experience of participating organisations has been collected on topics associated with the definition of PEGs and PEPs using a questionnaire. The objective of the questionnaire was to review the current status and on-going discussions on the handling of issues related to definitions of PEGs and PEPs as an input to the development of biosphere models for assessing radiological impacts on human health and the environment. The answers received to the questionnaire provided a clear overview of the progress that has been made since the original BIOMASS methodology was published, together with the lessons learned from the application of that methodology in the development of safety cases. This paper summarises the questionnaire responses in five subject areas: (1) environment of the PEGs and its evolution; (2) linking the choice of PEGs to these environments; (3) food habits and consumption rates; (4) populations of non-human biota (PEPs) and (5) national and international regulations and guidance. We illustrate how the results of the questionnaire have been used to enhance the original BIOMASS methodology (IAEA Enhanced BIOMASS Methodology Report in press).

Demonstrating the use of a framework for risk-informed decisions with stakeholder engagement through case studies for NORM and nuclear legacy sites

The international community has come a long way in developing a consensus that the remediation and management of naturally occurring radioactive materials and nuclear legacy sites will benefit from the use of the framework for risk-informed decision-making. Such a framework should ideally integrate risk assessment and decision-making. The framework presented in this paper specifically addresses the needs and expectations in the wider socio-economic and environmental context, as well as a narrower human health context. The framework was demonstrated as part of the International Atomic Energy Agency's second Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments Programme. Three case studies, which have used or could use this integrative approach, are used for illustration. The first concerns remediation from uranium mining activities at Beaverlodge Lake in northern Saskatchewan, Canada, engaging stakeholders (also called 'interested parties') in the decision-making process on further options. The second case study suggests how decision analysis could support the selection of the best option for waste disposal for uranium ore processing at Žirovski vrh, Slovenia, taking into account a potential landslide and migration of waste throughout the adjacent valley in the event of flooding. The third case study presents the process and results of radiological safety assessment of the Kepkensberg sludge basin in Tessenderlo area, Belgium both before and after the disposal of material from remediation of the nearby Winterbeek River. It illustrates how such assessments could interface with decision analysis for the purpose of supporting the regulatory decisions related to future approval of a waste disposal option. Results show that formal stakeholder engagement in decision analysis provides a strong contribution to objective, robust, and transparent decision-making not only for radiation protection area but also in others where health and environmental impacts are of concern. A number of recommendations for future work have also been made.