Barriers to Treatment as Prevention Adoption Among Sexual and Gender Minority Individuals Who Have Sex with Men in the United States

The future of HIV: challenges in meeting the 2030 Ending the HIV Epidemic in the US (EHE) reduction goal

OBJECTIVES

To predict the burden of HIV in the United States (US) nationally and by region, transmission type, and race/ethnicity through 2030.

METHODS

Using publicly available data from the CDC NCHHSTP AtlasPlus dashboard, we generated 11-year prospective forecasts of incident HIV diagnoses nationally and by region (South, non-South), race/ethnicity (White, Hispanic/Latino, Black/African American), and transmission type (Injection-Drug Use, Male-to-Male Sexual Contact (MMSC), and Heterosexual Contact (HSC)). We employed weighted (W) and unweighted (UW) n -sub-epidemic ensemble models, calibrated using 12 years of historical data (2008-2019), and forecasted trends for 2020-2030. We compared results to identify persistent, concerning trends across models.

RESULTS

We projected substantial decreases in incident HIV diagnoses nationally (W: 27.9%, UW: 21.9%), and in the South (W:18.0%, UW: 9.2%) and non-South (W: 21.2%, UW: 19.5%) from 2019 to 2030. However, concerning nondecreasing trends were observed nationally in key sub-populations during this period: Hispanic/Latino persons (W: 1.4%, UW: 2.6%), Hispanic/Latino MMSC (W: 9.0%, UW: 9.9%), people who inject drugs (PWID) (W: 25.6%, UW: 9.2%), and White PWID (W: 3.5%, UW: 44.9%). The rising trends among Hispanic/Latino MMSC and overall PWID were consistent across the South and non-South regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the forecasted national-level decrease in the number of incident HIV diagnoses is encouraging, the US is unlikely to achieve the Ending the HIV Epidemic in the US goal of a 90% reduction in HIV incidence by 2030. Additionally, the observed increases among specific subpopulations highlight the importance of a targeted and equitable approach to effectively combat HIV in the US.

The Future of HIV: Challenges in meeting the 2030 Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S. (EHE) reduction goal

Objectives

To predict the burden of HIV in the United States (US) nationally and by region, transmission type, and race/ethnicity through 2030.

Methods

Using publicly available data from the CDC NCHHSTP AtlasPlus dashboard, we generated 11-year prospective forecasts of incident HIV diagnoses nationally and by region (South, non-South), race/ethnicity (White, Hispanic/Latino, Black/African American), and transmission type (Injection-Drug Use, Male-to-Male Sexual Contact (MMSC), and Heterosexual Contact (HSC)). We employed weighted (W) and unweighted (UW) n-sub-epidemic ensemble models, calibrated using 12 years of historical data (2008-2019), and forecasted trends for 2020-2030. We compared results to identify persistent, concerning trends across models.

Results

We projected substantial decreases in incident HIV diagnoses nationally (W: 27.9%, UW: 21.9%), and in the South (W:18.0%, UW: 9.2%) and non-South (W: 21.2%, UW: 19.5%) from 2019 to 2030. However, concerning non-decreasing trends were observed nationally in key sub-populations during this period: Hispanic/Latino persons (W: 1.4%, UW: 2.6%), Hispanic/Latino MMSC (W: 9.0%, UW: 9.9%), people who inject drugs (PWID) (W: 25.6%, UW: 9.2%), and White PWID (W: 3.5%, UW: 44.9%). The rising trends among Hispanic/Latino MMSC and overall PWID were consistent across the South and non-South regions.

Conclusions

Although the forecasted national-level decrease in the number of incident HIV diagnoses is encouraging, the US is unlikely to achieve the Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S. goal of a 90% reduction in HIV incidence by 2030. Additionally, the observed increases among specific subpopulations highlight the importance of a targeted and equitable approach to effectively combat HIV in the US.

Gender and Age Trends in HIV Incidence in Turkey between 1990 and 2021: Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analyses

Background and Objectives: Despite a global decrease in HIV incidence, recent trends in Türkiye indicate a concerning rise, particularly among younger populations and women. This study investigates the local and regional dynamics influencing these trends using advanced epidemiological methodologies. Material and Methods: Utilizing Age-period-cohort analysis and joinpoint regression, we analysed HIV incidence and prevalence data from the Global Burden of Disease study for Türkiye. These methods allowed for a detailed examination of changes over time, identifying specific age groups and periods with significant shifts in incidence rates. Results: Key findings include a 13.03% increase in annual percentage change among males aged 15-19 and an 11.37% increase among females in the same age group. Additionally, the incidence rates among females have shown a significant rise after 2008. Conclusions: The rising HIV incidence in Türkiye reflects complex socio-economic, cultural, and biological factors, with significant increases among young people and women. Addressing these challenges requires targeted interventions, comprehensive educational programs, and inclusive healthcare services to align with global efforts and commitments. The study underscores the importance of incorporating young people in decision-making processes to effectively combat HIV in Türkiye.

The Potential Role of Undetectable = Untransmittable (U = U) in Reducing HIV Stigma among Sexual Minority Men in the US

The Undetectable = Untransmittable (U = U) message and its scientific underpinnings have been widely suggested to reduce HIV stigma. However, misunderstanding and skepticism about U = U may prevent this destigmatizing potential from being fully realized. This cross-sectional study examined associations between U = U belief (belief that someone with a sustained undetectable viral load has zero risk of sexually transmitting HIV) and HIV stigma among US sexual minority men. Differences by serostatus and effects of brief informational messaging were also explored. The survey was completed online by 106 men living with HIV and 351 HIV-negative/status-unknown men (2019-2020). Participants were 18-83 years old (M[SD] = 41[13.0]). Most were non-Hispanic White (70.0%) and gay (82.9%). Although nearly all participants (95.6%) were aware of U = U, only 41.1% believed U = U. A greater percentage of participants living with HIV (66.0%) believed U = U compared with HIV-negative/status-unknown participants (33.6%). Among participants living with HIV, U = U belief was not significantly associated with perceived, internalized, or experienced HIV stigma or with viral load prejudice (prejudice against people who have a detectable HIV viral load). Among HIV-negative/status-unknown participants, U = U belief was associated with less frequently enacted HIV discrimination, more positive feelings toward people with an undetectable viral load, and lower personal endorsement of stigmatizing beliefs. Brief informational messaging about U = U did not affect most stigma dimensions and did not favorably affect any. Interventions are needed to correct commonly held, outdated misconceptions about HIV transmission risk. Such initiatives must not only engage people living with HIV but also engage HIV-negative/status-unknown people to maximize the destigmatizing potential of U = U.